Recently in Mason-Dixon Research Category

Here are updates that include polls published Friday through today in our round-up of match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama. Also, we have changed several race ratings:

  • Arkansas from "Leans Republican" to "Republican Favored."
  • Arizona from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."
  • Connecticut from "Democrat Favored" to "Safe Democrat."
  • Georgia from "Republican Favored to "Leans Republican."
  • New Hampshire from "Leans Democrat" to Democrat Favored."
  • New Mexico from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

    • North Dakota from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
    • Oregon from "Leans Democratic" to "Safe Democratic."
    • Washington State from "Leans Democratic" to "Safe Democratic."

    • Alaska: McCain 46.6, Obama 43.9. (Hays Research); McCain 58, Obama 39. (Research 2000)

    • Arkansas: McCain 51, Obama 44. (ARG)
    • Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon); Obama 54, McCain 44. (Public Policy Polling)
    • Florida: Obama 49.2, McCain 48. (Zogby);Obama 50, McCain 48. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Quinnipiac); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Mason-Dixon); Obama 50, McCain 46. (ARG)
    • Georgia: McCain 50, Obama 48. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 52, Obama 45. (SurveyUSA); McCain 47, Obama 44. (Research 2000); McCain 52, Obama 47. (Rasmussen)
    • Illinois: Obama 60, McCain 38. (Rasmussen)
    • Indiana: McCain 50.4, Obama 45.1. (Zogby); Obama 49, McCain 48. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 48, Obama 48. (ARG); McCain 47, Obama 47. (SurveyUSA)
    • Iowa: Obama 54, McCain 37. (Des Moines Register); Obama 55, McCain 40. (SurveyUSA)
    • Kentucky: McCain 56, Obama 40. (SurveyUSA); McCain 56, Obama 39. (Research 2000)
    • Maine: Obama 56, McCain 43. (Rasmussen)
    • Michigan: Obama 55, McCain 42. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 50, McCain 38. (EPIC -MRA)
    • Minnesota: Obama 49, McCain 46. (SurveyUSA); Obama 53, McCain 38. (Research 2000); Obama 57, McCain 41. (Public Policy Polling)
    • Missouri: Obama 48.8, McCain 48.8. (Zogby); Obama 49.4, McCain 48.6. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 48, Obama 48. (SurveyUSA)McCain 47, Obama 46. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon); McCain 50, Obama 47. (InsiderAdvantage/Politico)
    • Montana: Obama 48, McCain 47, Paul 4. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 48, Obama 44. (Research 2000)
    • Nevada: Obama 53.2, McCain 42.4. (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 47, McCain 43. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
    • New Hampshire: Obama 53, McCain 42. (WMUR/UNH); Obama 53, McCain 42. (SurveyUSA); Obama 50, McCain 41. (Strategic Vision); Obama 51, McCain 44. (Research 2000); Obama 51, McCain 44. (Rasmussen)
    • New Mexico: Obama 58, McCain 41. (Public Policy Polling)
    • North Carolina: McCain 49.5, Obama 49.1. (Zogby); Obama 50, McCain 49. (Public Policy Polling); McCain 49, Obama 46. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon); Obama 48, McCain 48. (InsiderAdvantage/Politico); Obama 45, McCain 38. (Elon University)
    • Ohio: Obama 49.4, McCain 47.4. (Zogby); Obama 48, McCain 46. (SurveyUSA); Obama 51.5, McCain 45.7. (University of Cincinnati); (Obama 50, McCain 43. Quinnipiac); Obama 50, McCain 48. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 52, McCain 46. (Columbus Dispatch); McCain 47, Obama 45. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
    • Oregon : Obama 54, McCain 42. (Rasmussen); Obama 55, McCain 39. (Research 2000). Obama 57, McCain 42. (Public Policy Polling)
    • Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43. (SurveyUSA); Obama 51.2, McCain 41.4 (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 44. (Strategic Vision); Obama 52, McCain 42. (Quinnipiac); Obama 53, McCain 45. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 52, McCain 44. (Muhlenberg); Obama 51, McCain 45. (ARG); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
    • South Carolina: McCain 52, Obama 44. (SurveyUSA)
    • South Dakota: McCain 53, Obama 44. (Rasmussen)
    • Virginia: Obama 51.7, McCain 45.3 (Zogby); Obama 50, McCain 46. (SurveyUSA); Obama 47, McCain 44. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon).
    • Washington State: Obama 55, McCain 40. (Strategic Vision)
    • West Virginia: McCain 55, Obama 42. (Public Policy Polling)
    • Wisconsin: Obama 53, McCain 40. (Strategic Vision); Obama 55, McCain 39. (SurveyUSA).
    • Wyoming: McCain 61, Obama 36. (Research 2000)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here are the states we're updating today in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Alaska: McCain 53, Obama 42. (Ivan Moore)
  • Florida: McCain 46, Obama 45. (Mason-Dixon)
  • Kentucky: McCain 52, Obama 44. (Rasmussen)
  • Maine: Obama 54, 39. (SurveyUSA)
  • Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
  • North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 47. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
  • Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 46. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 41. (Muhlenberg)
  • Virginia: Obama 54, McCain 44. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Mason-Dixon)
  • West Virginia: McCain 53, Obama 44. (CNN/Time/Opinion Research)
  • Wisconsin: Obama 52, McCain 41. (Research 2000); Obama 51, McCain 38. (Wisconsin Public Radio)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario

Here are the states we're updating today in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Georgia: McCain 51, Obama 43. (SurveyUSA)
  • Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 45. (Mason-Dixon)
  • New Jersey: Obama 55, McCain 40. (SurveyUSA)
  • New York: Obama 64, McCain 31. (SurveyUSA)
  • Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 45. (Marist)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 41. (Marist)
  • North Dakota: Obama 45, McCain 43. (Minnesota State University)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Today we update Pennsylvania, California, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada and Minnesota in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama. As with the latest national polls, the movement in these polls and the ones we posted yesterday appears to be mostly towards Obama. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll said McCain was struggling in states that President Bush won in 2004 such as North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update North Carolina - where Democrat Kay Hagan has pulled ahead of Republican Elizabeth Dole - and Kentucky - where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell finds himself in a dead heat with Democrat Bruce Lunsford in the latest polls. We also update Iowa in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Our latest round-up of state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates the crucial states of Colorado and Virginia which are both toss-ups and could turn out to be a key to the election. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

  • Virginia: The polls here consistently agree that McCain and Obama are in a real horse-race in a state that has gone Republican in the last five elections.Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-22. That's within the 3 point margin of error. While McCain leads 55 percent to 36 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample), Obama leads 89 percent to 11percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A large number of voters counted in each man's camp say they could change their mind by Election Day. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 12 has Obama at 46 percent and McCain at 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 47 percent while McCain's is 61 percent to 36 percent. Rasmussen says McCain has the advantage among unaffiliated voters. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Aug. 12 has McCain and Obama even at 43 percent each with 9 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. InsiderAdvantage says, "The secret to Obama's ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia's black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 8-10 had Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent for McCain with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 23 point lead among voters under 34 who make up 21 percent of the sample. McCain led among white voters (74 percent of the sample) by 58 percent to 37 percent while Obama led among blacks (19 percent of the sample) by 84 percent to 14 percent. Independents prefer McCain by 11 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 also had Obama in a statistical dead-heat with McCain, leading 46 percent to 44 percent, the same margin as last month. Ten percent are undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 percent. Unlike some other states, there is no gender gap here among either men or women. However, McCain leads 53 percent to 36 percent among white voters (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 77 percent to 16 percent among blacks (20 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 16, has Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent each with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is better at 64 percent to 36 percent, while Obama's is 52 percent to 47 percent. Virginians rank national security pretty high as an issue with 30 percent choosing that as the issue with which they are more concerned, while 42 percent named the economy. Voters put more importance on lowering gasoline prices than protecting the environment by 48 percent to 40 percent. Check Out the Washington Post story about Virginia's emergence as a key battleground state. Republicans won the last five elections here even in 1992 when independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from the first George Bush. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast says this state "Leans Republican."