Recently in Marist Category

Registered voters disapprove of proposals to provide federal loans to automakers by 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided, according to a Marist poll conducted Dec. 9-10. Democrats backed federal assistance by 53 percent to 36 percent, while Republicans opposed it by 61 percent to 33 percent, and independents were also against the idea, 51 percent to 40 percent.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted Dec. 3-7 said only 39 percent of Americans said it was right for the government to spend billions on assistance to automakers. Along partisan lines, only 31 percent of Republicans held that view, 38 percent of independents and 45 percent of Democrats.

New York Gov. David Paterson has to navigate a thicket of state politics in choosing a successor to Hillary Rodham Clinton when she leaves the Senate for the State Department. Caroline Kennedy and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo run first and second in a survey of New Yorkers by Public Policy polling and are tied in a poll by the Marist Institute.

Public Policy Polling:, conducted Dec. 8-9:

Kennedy 44 percent

Cuomo 23 percent

Rep. Kirsten Gilibrand 6 percent

Rep. Brian Higgins 5 percent

Rep. Nydia Velazquez 4 percent

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi 3 percent

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown 3 percent

Rep. Carolyn Maloney 3 percent

Here are today's updates in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46. (CNN/Time); McCain 48, Obama 44. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon).
  • California: Obama 55, McCain 33. (Field)
  • Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45. (Marist); Obama 48, McCain 44. (Allstate/National Journal)
  • Florida: Obama 45, McCain 44. (Allstate/National Journal)
  • Indiana: McCain 49, Obama 46. (Rasmussen); Obama 45.9, McCain 45.3 (Indianapolis Star-WTHR)
  • Kentucky: McCain 55, Obama 43. (Rasmussen)
  • Minnesota: Obama 56, McCain 37. (MPR/Humphrey); Obama Obama 48, McCain 40. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
  • Montana: McCain 50, Obama 46. (Rasmussen)
  • New Hampshire: Obama 53, McCain 40. (Suffolk University)
  • New Jersey: Obama 54, McCain 38. (Research 2000)
  • New Mexico: Obama 54, McCain 44. (Rasmussen)
  • Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 45. (CNN/Time)
  • North Carolina: Obama 50, McCain 48. (Rasmussen) Obama 52, McCain 46. (CNN/Time); Obama 47, McCain 43. (Allstate/National Journal)
  • Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 47. (CNN/Time); Obama 48, McCain 41. (Allstate/National Journal)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 55, McCain 43. (CNN/Time); Obama 47, McCain 43. (NBC News/Mason-Dixon)
  • South Carolina: McCain 53, Obama 42. (NBC/Princeton).
  • Texas: McCain 49.3, Obama 38. (University of Texas)
  • Virginia: Obama 51, McCain 47. (Marist); Obama 48, McCain 44. (Allstate/National Journal)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here are today's updates in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Alaska: McCain 57, Obama 41. (Rasmussen)
  • Arizona: McCain 46, Obama 44. (Cronkite/Eight)
  • Colorado: Obama 53, McCain 45. (CNN/Time); Obama 50, McCain 41. (AP/GfK)
  • Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47. (CNN/Time); Obama 47, McCain 45. (Quinnipiac); Obama 45, McCain 43. (AP/GfK)
  • Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47. (CNN/Time)
  • Indiana: McCain 47, Obama 45. (Howey/Gauge)
  • Michigan: Obama 53, McCain 43. (Rasmussen)
  • Minnesota: Obama 55, McCain 43. (Rasmussen)
  • Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 48. (CNN/Time)
  • New Hampshire: Obama 58, McCain 34. (WMUR/UNH)Obama 55, McCain 37. (AP/GfK)
  • Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 40. (AP/GfK)
  • North Carolina: Obama 48, McCain 46. (AP/GfK)
  • Ohio: Obama 46, McCain 43. (Marist); Obama 51, McCain 42. (Quinnipiac); Obama 48, McCain 41. (AP/GfK)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 39. (Marist); Obama 53, McCain 41. (Quinnipiac); Obama 52, McCain 40. (AP/GfK); Obama 51, McCain 39. (Franklin & Marshall)
  • Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44. (CNN/Time); Obama 49, McCain 42. (AP/GfK)
  • Washington: Obama 56, McCain 39. (SurveyUSA)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here are updates from yesterday and today in our match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Arizona: McCain 49, Obama 41. (Northern Arizona University)
  • Arkansas: McCain 54, Obama 44. (Rasmussen)
  • California: Obama 61, McCain 34. (Rasmussen)
  • Colorado: Obama 50, McCain 46. (Rasmussen)
  • Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43. (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg); Obama 49, McCain 44. (Suffolk); Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9. (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Indiana: McCain 50.2, Obama 44. (Zogby)
  • Iowa: Obama 52, McCain 42. (Marist)
  • Louisiana: McCain 50.6, Obama 38.3. (Southeastern Louisiana University)
  • Mississippi: McCain 53, Obama 45. (Rasmussen)
  • Missouri: Obama 48.2, McCain 45.7. (Zogby); Obama 48, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Montana: McCain 48, Obama 44. (NBC/Mason-Dixon)
  • Nevada: Obama 48.2, McCain 44. (Zogby)
  • New Hampshire: Obama 50, McCain 45. (Marist); Obama 55, McCain 39. (WMUR/UNH); Obama 50, McCain 39. (NBC/Mason-Dixon)
  • New Jersey: Obama 53, McCain 38. (Strategic Vision)
  • Nevada: Obama 50, McCain 46. (Rasmussen)
  • North Carolina: Obama 49, McCain 48, Barr 1. (Public Policy Polling); Obama 49.7, McCain 46.4. (Zogby); McCain 49, Obama 48. (Rasmussen); Obama 47, McCain 47. (NBC/Mason-Dixon)
  • Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40. (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg); Obama 49.7, McCain 45.1 (Zogby); Obama 49, McCain 45. (Rasmussen); Obama 49, McCain 45. (SurveyUSA)
  • Oregon: Obama 57, McCain 38. (SurveyUSA)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 50, McCain 41. (Temple); Obama 53, McCain 46. (Rasmussen)
  • Vermont: Obama 57, McCain 36. (Research 2000)
  • Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44. (Washington Post/ABC News); Obama 52, McCain 43. (SurveyUSA); Obama 52, McCain 44.8. (Zogby); Obama 51, McCain 47. (Rasmussen)
  • Washington State: Obama 55, McCain 34. (University of Washington)
  • Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 41. (Strategic Vision)
  • West Virginia: McCain 50.3, Obama 40.4. (Zogby)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here are the states we're updating today in our round-up of general election match-ups between John McCain and Barack Obama:

  • Georgia: McCain 51, Obama 43. (SurveyUSA)
  • Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 45. (Mason-Dixon)
  • New Jersey: Obama 55, McCain 40. (SurveyUSA)
  • New York: Obama 64, McCain 31. (SurveyUSA)
  • Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 45. (Marist)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 41. (Marist)
  • North Dakota: Obama 45, McCain 43. (Minnesota State University)

Also, check out CQ Politics Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, including leaners, with 1 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided in a Marist Institute poll conducted Sept. 28-30. The margin of error is 3 percent. That's unchanged since last week in this poll. Among all registered voters, the margin is 47 percent to 43 percent.

Marist says the intensity of support for the candidates has fallen off somewhat, from 81 percent who last week said they strongly supported their choice to 74 percent. Seven percent say they might change their minds. The fall-off for McCain was 9 points and for Obama it was 7 points. Both candidates have almost equal favorable ratings, around the 60 percent mark.

Voters say by a 53 percent to 42 percent margin that Friday's presidential debate should go on as planned despite John McCain's call to cancel it while the nation deals with its financial crisis, according to a Marist Institute poll conducted yesterday. The margin of error is 5 percent. Democrats favor pushing on 80 percent to 15 percent, Republicans side with McCain 76 percent to 21 percent and independents want the debate to proceed by 53 percent to 40 percent.

However, in polling conducted Sept. 22-23, 48 percent of registered voters said the candidates should talk about economic issues, given the ongoing economic turmoil, as opposed to foreign policy which is the topic of the first debate. A majority of Democrats and independents expressed that view as did 41 percent of Republicans. It was Obama who sought foreign policy as the lead-off topic before financial events came to their recent head, wanting to tackle first questions about his foreign policy credentials and then close the debates out with the last one being on what he believes to be his strong suit, domestic policy.

Twenty-eight percent of voters say the face-offs will help them make up their minds, while 71 percent said they had already decided their choice. For undecided voters, 87 percent are counting on the debates to help them choose and the same is true for 38 percent of independents.

Expectations are higher for Obama: 48 percent expect him to win compared to 37 percent for McCain. The New York Times this week did a pair of pieces looking at the debating strengths and weaknesses of Obama and McCain.

Today we update New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana, Florida and Hawaii in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of state-by-state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. And, also visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.