Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's lead over his Democratic primary rival, Rep. Joe Sestak, has dwindled since summer, according to a Franklin and Marshall College poll conducted Oct. 20 to 25.

The survey found Specter ahead of Sestak by 12 points, 30 percent to 18 percent, but 47 percent said they were undecided.

In a similar poll from the end of August, Specter led Sestak by a larger margin, 37 percent to 11 percent, among polled registered Democrats.

Matched against likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey, a former congerssman, the latest poll of 529 registered voters put Specter in the lead by the narrowest of margins -- 33 percent to 31 percent, with 30 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 points.

Specter switched parties after polls showed he would have a hard time winning a Republican primary against Toomey. But the Franklin and Marshall survey is the latest in a series of independent polls showing that voters aren't certain that Specter deserves a sixth Senate term.

CQ Politics currently rates the general election race Leans Democratic.

-- Shira Toeplitz

He's not beloved by Pennsylvanians, but Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter holds an early lead over his two chief challengers in the 2010 election, according to a survey conducted Aug. 25-31.

The Franklin & Marshall College poll of 562 registered voters found that in a 2010 primary matchup, Specter is favored by 37 percent versus 11 percent for Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak.

Six percent of Democratic respondents said they were supporting some other candidate in the May primary (state Rep. Bill Kortz also is running), while 46 percent said they weren't sure who they would back.

Just three in 10 Pennsylvanians think that Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, according to a a Franklin and Marshall College Poll conducted June 16-21.

Twenty-eight percent of respondents said that they would definitely vote to re-elect Specter, compared to 57 percent who said "it is time for a change." In the organization's March survey, conducted before the senator changed his party affiliation from Republican to Democratic in late April, Specter's "hard re-elect" rating was 40 percent.

The poll suggested that a likely 2010 primary between Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak will be highly competitive. Specter leads Sestak by 33 percent to 13 percent, though a large plurality of respondents (48 percent) are undecided.

A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted March 17-22 shows Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter in somewhat better shape than did a Quinnipiac University survey that was released yesterday.

Where Quinnipiac showed former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Specter 41 percent to 27 percent in a potential Republican primary, the F & M poll had Specter leading Toomey 33 percent to 18 percent. However, it is not particularly great news for a five-term senator that 42 of registered Republicans are undecided.

Today we update the key states of Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Nevada and Florida in our match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We've also updated Kansas which, predictably, is not even close.

• Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 44 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent preferring other and 16 percent undecided in a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 4-10. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The last time F & M polled on this, in February, McCain led by a point. Three-quarters of voters are certain about their choice and the rest still deciding. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 43 percent to 29 percent compared to McCain's 39 percent to 32 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said they would be concerned if McCain was elected and 50 percent said they would not. Forty-six percent cited his views on policy issues (most believe he would continue President Bush's economic and foreign policies) and 50 percent were not concerned. Fifty-one percent of voters said they would be concerned if Obama was elected , with 39 percent citing lack of experience, 30 percent citing his policy stands and 12 percent believing he was "wishy-washy" and trying to please everyone. As in most national polls, Obama tops McCain 55 percent to 32 percent for best understanding the concern of ordinary Americans while McCain wins out 60 percent to 22 percent on experience and 53 percent to 29 percent on handling the war on terrorism. Obama has a big lead among independents and women, and McCain has the edge with Protestants and fundamentalist Christians. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 23-29 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. In its last poll, Obama had been up by 12 points. Nineteen percent of Obama supporters say they might yet change their minds compared to 24 percent for McCain. The biggest demographic gaps include Obama's 11 point lead among women, his 91 percent to 1 percent lead among blacks and his 23 point lead among voters under 34. Quinnipiac attributes McCain's gains on Obama to his energy policy "being more in line in Pennsylvania" and Obama's continued struggle among white blue collar workers. Strategic Vision conducted a poll July 25-27 that had Obama ahead 49 percent to 40 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 23 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent over McCain. The margin of error was 4 points. Four percent preferred "other" and 6 percent were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of voters viewed Obama favorably as did 61 percent for McCain. The Los Angeles Times recently had a piece on McCain's effort to make inroads in Pennsylvania by stressing his bipartisanship. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time.