Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates North Carolina (where there's a big change), Florida, Virginia, Washington state, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Montana and adds Maryland. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.
- North Carolina: Could it be? After holding small or statistically insignificant leads over Obama in several polls, McCain has jumped to a 58 percent to 38 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 6-8. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-23 had showed McCain with a 45 percent to 42 percent lead over Obama with 4 percent favoring Libertarian Bob Barr and 8 percent undecided in a. That was within the margin of error of 3.3 percent. McCain led 57 percent to 30 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama led 84 percent to 8 percent among black voters (21 percent of the sample). Unless the number of black voters who turn out moves up a few points, Obama would probably have to do somewhat better than he is now among whites. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 19 had McCain ahead 44.5 percent to 42.8 percent with 5.2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, .9 percent for Ralph Nader and 5.4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Aug .14-17 had McCain ahead 46 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent for Barr and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. That was a 3 point gain for McCain since July in this poll. Helping McCain was growing strength among independents which is now 18 points. At one point, he had been about even with Obama among them. The pollster said Obama seems stuck at about 40 percent even though he "continues to invest millions of dollars in television, field operations and commit his personal time." Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."