A new poll from DailyKos and Research2000 confirms what election watchers have been saying for the past week -- the special House election in upstate New York is coming down to a race between Democrat Bill Owens and third-party candidate Doug Hoffman. The poll was conducted Oct. 26 to 28. The election is Nov. 3.

Among likely voters, Owens, an attorney, leads Hoffman, an accountant running on the state Conservative Party line, 33 to 32 percent, well within the 4 percentage point margin of error. Republican Dede Scozzafava lags behind at 21 percent. Fourteen percent remain undecided in the 23rd District, which takes in the Northeast corner of the state. Nine-term Rep. John M. McHugh resigned the seat in September to become Secretary of the Army.

Owens held relatively steady compared to the DailyKos poll released Oct. 23, which had him at 35 percent of the vote. The big swing is in the standing of Hoffman and Scozzafava, who continue their dramatic movement in opposite directions.

The standing of the special election candidates for New York's 23rd District remains steady, despite the race's daily fireworks, according to a new poll from liberal blog Daily Kos in conjunction with Research 2000, which was conducted Oct. 19 through 21.

The poll shows Democrat Bill Owens leading the three-way contest with 35 percent of the vote, with Republican Dede Scozzafava at 30 percent and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman at 23 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

That is nearly identical to a Siena College poll released Oct. 15 that showed Owens leading Scozzafava 33 percent to 29 percent, with Hoffman at 23 percent and a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Iowa Republican Sen. Charles E. Grassley, who has been a titanic political figure in his state for decades, could face a competitive race for a sixth term -- particularly if Democrat Christie Vilsack chose to challenge him.

A Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey conducted Oct. 12-14 had Grassley with a 51 percent to 40 percent lead over Vilsack, a lawyer and teacher who is married to Tom Vilsack, President Obama's Agriculture secretary and Iowa's governor from 1999 through 2006.

There's been speculation that Vilsack is the unnamed "mystery candidate" that Iowa Democratic leaders have promised will soon announce a campaign and give Grassley his toughest re-election fight ever. Grassley has won at least 66 percent of the vote in each of his four Senate re-election campaigns, usually against hapless Democratic opposition.

A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 14-16 gives Republican Bob McDonnell a 7-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor's race -- a larger lead for McDonnell than in a different poll this week that suggested the Nov. 3 race is a dead heat.

McDonnell has 50 percent and Deeds has 43 percent in the Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, which gives the Republican a higher approval rating (56 percent) than either Deeds (47 percent), outgoing Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine (45 percent) or even President Obama (45 percent).

The survey showed that Deeds still has some work to do to solidify his Democratic Party base. He is winning 80 percent of self-identified Democrats, but 89 percent of self-described Republicans say they are backing McDonnell, who also has a 13-point edge over Deeds among political independents.

Democratic Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut has cut into the polling lead built by former Rep. Rob Simmons, his leading Republican rival -- or he hasn't, depending on which of the two latest polls you read.

Dodd trailed Simmons by 42 percent to 46 percent -- within the 4 percentage-point margin of error -- in a new poll conducted Sept. 8 through 10 for the liberal blog Daily Kos by independent polling firm Research 2000 and released Monday. Twelve percent of the respondents to the poll of likely voters are undecided.

But that result was in marked contrast to a Rasmussen poll -- also conducted Sept. 10 and released last week -- that showed Dodd trailing Simmons by 10 percentage points.

A new poll conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 2 from DailyKos and Research 2000 confirms that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in trouble going into his 2010 re-election.

Though he still has more than a year until he faces Nevada voters, the fact that this poll and one conducted in August show him trailing relatively no-name GOP opponents is bound to be troubling for Reid and his allies.

In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, Reid trails declared Republican challenger Danny Tarkanian 40 percent to 45 percent, just clearing the 4 percent margin of error, with 15 percent undecided. Tarkanian, a Las Vegas real estate developer and son of famed college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, lost his two previous attempts at elected office — in 2006 in the race for Nevada secretary of State and in 2004 for state Senate. Forty-seven percent of respondents, however, hold a favorable opinion of Tarkanian; 25 percent have no opinion.

Reid also trails Sue Lowden, who just announced Wednesday night that she is resigning her post as state party chairwoman as she explores a Senate bid. Lowden’s lead - 44 percent to 41 percent - is within the margin of error, however. A third of voters have yet to form an opinion of the former state senator, who lost her last campaign for political office, for state Senate in 1996. Forty-three percent held a favorable view of Lowden.

Only time will tell if Thursday evening's campaign appearance by President Obama will help, but at the moment Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds is trailing Republican candidate Bob McDonnell by eight points, according to a Research 2000/Daily Kos poll conducted Aug. 3-Aug 5.

Fifty-one percent of those surveyed by telephone said they would support McDonnell for Virginia governor if the vote were held today, compared to 43 percent for Deeds. Only six percent of those polled said they were undecided.

McDonnell also leads Deeds in overall ratings, with 57 percent of those surveyed viewing him favorably to 46 percent for Deeds.

Campaign help from President Obama hasn't helped New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine improve his chances in this year's election, according to a poll from Research 2000/Daily Kos conducted Aug. 3-5.

The poll showed Republican Chris Christie leading by eight percentage points overall and by a wider margin among older voters.

Christie, a former federal prosecutor, was preferred by 48 percent of the likely voters polled, while Corzine was the choice of 40 percent with 9 percent undecided.

The poll's margin of error was 4 percentage points.

A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released Thursday is the latest survey to find no clear favorite in next Tuesday's Democratic primary for the Virginia governorship.

The poll, taken June 1-3 of 600 likely voters, has state Sen. Creigh Deeds at 30 percent, former state Rep. Brian Moran at 27 percent and former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe at 26 percent.

The poll said that 17 percent of likely voters are undecided. It also has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, so the Democratic race is a toss-up.