Two polls released over the weekend have very different takes on the Massachusetts Senate special election on Jan. 19 that hinges on who will actually turn out to vote.

A survey of likely Democratic voters conducted Jan. 7 to 9 by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling found state Sen. Scott Brown (R) leading Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) by a percentage point, 48 to 47 percent, a stunning development in a race that Coakley has been expected to win with ease. Six percent were undecided. The poll, released Saturday evening, had margin of error of 3.6 percent.

However a poll released Sunday morning by the Boston Globe and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center promptly threw cold water on any Republican euphoria. The Globe survey of likely voters conducted Jan. 2 to 6 found Coakley leading Brown 50 to 35 percent and 53 to 36 percent if voters leaning one way or the other are included.

Unlike the PPP poll, the Globe included independent, libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy, who garnered 5 percent of the vote. Nine percent were undecided when leaners were not included. The margin of error was 4.2 percent.

Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) continues to enjoy a double-digit lead in the Senate special election primary, but just 26 percent of the Democratic electorate has "definitely decided" whom they are voting for, according to a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll of likely Democratic primary voters conducted Nov. 13 through 18.

Coakley led the four-person field with 40 percent followed by Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.), who surged into second place at 21 percent. After besting Capuano over the past month, investor and Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca (D) dropped to third at 13 percent and Alan Khazei (D), co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 6 percent. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.

Coakley led among male and female voters and across all age ranges and regions of the state. And she enjoyed the highest name ID -- just 9 percent of respondents said they did not know of her and 71 percent viewed her favorably, to 13 percent unfavorably.

This run-up year to Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick's re-election campaign has been rough on the Democratic incumbent, as his struggles with the state's recession-plagued economy and other issues have hurt his standing with state votes. And the latest Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Monday was just more bad news, as his job approval ratings hit a new low point.

Just 35 percent of the respondents said they approve of the job Patrick is doing, while 56 percent disapprove.

One of the major sources of Patrick's growing unpopularity, the Globe noted, is his perceived failure to reform state government, as he promised in his 2006 campaign. Sixty-two percent of respondents said Patrick has not brought reform to the state, while just 25 percent believe he has.