Since the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3 percent, that puts the candidates in a statistical dead heat. Yesterday's daily tracking poll had at Obama at 50 percent and Clinton at 44.
The survey was conducted May 13-15. During that time, Clinton won the West Virginia primary and John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama.
Gallup notes that the "slight narrowing of the race ... is typical of the way the contest has gone over the past several months, with neither candidate able to maintain a significant lead among national Democratic voters for very long."
There has been a small change in hypothetical match-ups with Republican John McCain. McCain is ahead of Obama, 47-45 percent among registered voters (the two were tied at 45 yesterday). With the margin of error at +/- 2 percent, that also puts them in a statistical tie. But against Clinton, McCain fares signficantly worse: Clinton has a 3 point lead 48 - 45 percent. ]]>
In Kentucky, Clinton leads Obama 65 to 29 percent. She trumps him in support from men (56 -38 percent) as well as women (72-21) and regardless of age. Obama leads Clinton among African American voters (91-7), who make up 11 percent of this electorate.
In Oregon, Obama's lead is much narrower: 50 to 45 percent. He has more white voter support (51-44) and among those 18 to 49 years old (55-38). But Clinton has more support from women (51-44) and Hispanic voters (50-46). American Research Group says Hispanics are 6 percent of the vote.
The margin of error for each poll is +/- 4 percent and the surveys were conducted May 14-15. ]]>
In a SurveyUSA poll of likely New Mexican voters, Democrat Tom Udall would easily defeat either Republican running for the seat, Heather Wilson (61-35 percent) or Steven Pearce (60-36 percent). The margin of error was +/- 2.3 percent.
Wilson and Pearce are in a tight race for the Republican nomination, which is currently held by retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici. The poll shows them almost tied, with Pearce having the slight edge over Wilson (49-46 percent). The primary is June 3.
The margin of error on the Republican-only poll was +/- 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted May 12-14.
Udall, Wilson and Pearce gave up their House seats to run for the Senate.
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Clinton does have a slim head-to-head lead over McCain, leading him 48 to 45 percent. Obama is tied with John McCain at 45 percent when voters are asked about that November general election match-up.
The Democratic nomination results are based on data from May 12-14, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points. The general election results are based on data from May 10-14. For results based on this sample of 4,372 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. ]]>
Iowa: Barack Obama leads John McCain 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent not sure in a survey conducted May 12. McCain edges Clinton 45 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent preferring other and 4 percent not sure. The figures for Obama and McCain haven't shown much movement since February. Fifty-three percent of voters view Obama favorably compared to 51 percent for McCain, but that represents a 7 point drop for the Republican.
Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 37 percent, while Clinton bests McCain 53 percent to 39 percent in the state where she was First Lady. McCain's margin over Obama is due to 92 percent support among fellow Republicans, 38 percent support from Democrats and 24 percent from unaffiliated voters. Obama's favorability rating here is only 38 percent. McCain's is 57 percent and Clinton's is 60 percent.
Washington state: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 40 percent, compared to the 5 point lead he held in the previous poll. Obama's favorability rating is 57 percent, while McCain's is 49 percent - which, as in Iowa, is a 7 point drop for him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted May 12 had Obama ahead 54 to 42 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama runs far ahead of McCain on the issues of the economy, environment, health care and Iraq while McCain leads Obama by a wide margin on the issues of terrorism and immigration.
Virginia: Barack Obama has pulled within 3 points of John McCain in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 8. McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 4.5 percent, compared to an 11 point lead a month ago. He leads Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent. Sixty percent of Virginia voters view McCain favorably, 51 percent have positive views of Obama, and Clinton scores at 42 percent. Virginia has voted for Republicans in the last ten presidential races. A SurveyUSA poll in mid-April had McCain ahead of Obama 52 percent to 44 percent and leading Clinton 55 percent to 39 percent.
North Carolina:The race between Obama and McCain is also within the margin of error here in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 8, with McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads Clinton 43 percent to 40 percent with a whopping 14 percent choosing "other." Obama does best among voters making less than $20,000 a year or more than $75,000 while McCain does best among middle-income voters. McCain is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters while Obama's score is 51 percent. Feelings run stronger in both directions about Obama: 37 percent have a very favorable opinion of him while 30 percent have a very unfavorable opinion, compared to 18 percent and 23 percent respectively for McCain. Clinton's favorable vote is 46 percent. A May 8-9 survey by Public Policy Polling shows McCain ahead by a bigger margin, though not a lead that's out of reach. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 42 percent and Clinton by 46 percent to 38 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.
Michigan: A May 7 survey by Rasmussen Reports shows a toss-up race no matter which Democrat runs against John McCain. McCain has 45 percent to Barack Obama's 44 percent with 6 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 5 percent undecided. Hillary Clinton ties with McCain at 44 percent with 9 percent saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. As far as Obama, the likely nominee, and McCain go, this poll has showed a close race each month since February. McCain is viewed favorably by 54 percent of the state's voters, Obama by 50 percent and Clinton by 49 percent.
Oregon: Obama leads McCain in a general election match-up for Oregon by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent in a May 7 survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports.) The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's margin represents a gain of 8 points since March in this poll and part of the reason is that McCain gets the backing of only 68 percent of voters in his own party. Obama's favorability rating is 61 percent, McCain's is 52 percent and Clinton's is 47 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent while Clinton ran statistically even with McCain.
Missouri: McCain runs ahead of Obama 47 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 45 percent to 43 percent in this swing state, according to a Rasmussen reports survey conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In late March, Rasmussen had McCain over Obama 53 percent to 38 percent and ahead of Clinton 50 percent to 41 percent. McCain's favorability rating is 55 percent, Obama's is 46 percent and Clinton's is 45 percent. In mid-April, SurveyUSA said Clinton was leading McCain 47 percent to 46 percent and McCain was leading Obama by 50 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent.
Georgia: McCain leads Barack Obama 53 percent to 39 percent and Hillary Clinton by 48 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain holds big leads among men voters against either Democrat. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters, down 5 points since March. Obama is viewed favorably by 43 percent and Clinton by 39 percent.
Wisconsin: McCain holds 47 percent to 43 percent leads over either Clinton or Obama, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain and Obama were a toss-up in Rasmussen's March poll while McCain led Clinton by 11 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 had McCain and Clinton tied and Obama ahead by 3 points, within the margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and unfavorably by 40 percent; Obama has 51 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable; and, Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent compared to the 46 percent who have positive views of her.
Indiana: Although this is a solid "red" state in presidential elections, a poll by the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics show both Clinton and Obama are competitive with McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.
These three swing state polls were conducted by Quinnipiac UniversityApril 23-29:
Florida: Clinton leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain edges Obama 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Clinton ties McCain among white working class voters at 45 percent each, while McCain beats Obama in this group 51 percent to 34 percent.
Ohio: Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 38 percent, while McCain is ahead of Obama by 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 46 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 34 percent.
Pennsylvania: Clinton leads McCain 51 percent to 37 percent and Obama bests him 47 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Clinton leads McCain among white working class voters 48 percent to 40 percent while McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 38 percent.
New Jersey: Both Obama and Clinton are comfortably ahead of McCain in a New Jersey general election match-up, but a [Monmouth University/Gannett poll] ound suggestions of what it described as "buyers' remorse" in the 10-point victory the state's Democrats gave Clinton in its Feb. 5 primary. Obama leads John McCain by 56 percent to 32 percent and Clinton is ahead by 52 percent to 38 percent. But now, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they favor Obama over Clinton by 45 percent to 38 percent. Obama's favorability ratings is 58 percent to 27 percent, Clinton's is 46 percent to 43 percent and McCain comes out on the negative side with 45 percent who view him unfavorably compared to 39 percent.
Massachusetts: No surprise here. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are way ahead of John McCain, with Clinton leading 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent, in a Rasmussen Reports poll released April 25. Among men voters, the match-ups are close, but among women the Democrats have wide leads. Obama's favorability rating is 59 percent, Clinton's is 58 percent, and McCain's is 57 percent. Forty-nine percent say the economy is the top issue compared to 24 percent who cite Iraq. Massachusetts voters do not give much of a boost to their onetime favorite son Mitt Romney as a potential McCain running mate. Forty three percent don't think McCain should choose Romney while 34 percent say they do. In a SurveyUSA poll conducted April 11-13 linton runs ahead of McCain 56 percent to 41 percent, while Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. On Iraq, named as the top issue by 18 percent, both Democrats lead McCain by more than 40 points.
Indiana: McCain leads Obama 51 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 52 percent to 41 percent, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted. April 21-24. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted April 20-23 had Obama ahead of McCain 49 percent to 41 percent and Clinton even with him at 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. The Boston Globe notes today that Indiana Democrats have not delivered their state in a general election since 1964.
Minnesota: Rasmussen Reports said April 24 that both Clinton and Obama have gained on John McCain in Minnesota, a state the Democrats have won in every presidential election since 1976. Obama leads McCain by 52 percent to 38 percent while Clinton is ahead 47 percent to 42 percent. Last month, Obama had only a 4 point lead and Clinton and McCain were running even. Obama has a favorability rating of 60 percent, McCain is at 56 percent and Clinton at 51 percent.
Nevada: McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in a general election match-up in Nevada, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 21. McCain is ahead of Obama 48 percent to 43 percent and Clinton by 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, Obama led McCain by four and the race with Clinton was a dead heat.
New York: Clinton leads McCain in her homestate by a modest 46 to 42 percent while Obama has a 45 percent to 40 percent lead, according to a Siena College poll conducted April 13-16. the margin of error is 3.9 percent. When Siena conducted its last poll in February, each Democrat led McCain by 7 points. But perhaps the big headline is that Clinton now has the highest unfavorable rating that she ever recorded in this poll. Forty eight percent of New Yorkers see her positively against 46 percent who do not. Obama's favorability rating is 54 percent to 35 percent and McCain;s is 54 percent to 35 percent. Siena's Stephen Greenberg says, "With a little more than six months until Election Day, New York is looking more 'purple' than 'blue' these days, since neither Clinton or Obama gets 50 percent of the vote against McCain, and both Democrats have small and shrinking leads." SurveyUSA said in an April 11-13 New York poll that Clinton leads McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. A Marist Poll conducted April 3-4 said if the election were held today McCain would run "surprisingly close" in New York to either Democrat. Clinton polls 48 percent to 46 percent against McCain, while McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent.
Pennsylvania: McCain is leading both Democrat, according to a Strategic Vision poll conducted April 18-20. He leads Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent with 12 percent undecided and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent, also with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.
Colorado: McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 46 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. For those of you who follow the Poll Tracker links to go to the source, Rasmussen has decided to present these results via video, and there's something squirrely about the address, so we didn't include it). Rasmussen says one reason for the difference is that Obama leads McCain by 44 percent to 34 percent among unaffiliated voters while McCain beats Clinton 49 percent to 28 percent, an outcome similar to many other state polls. McCain bests Clinton among both men and women voters while holding a slimmer lead among men over Obama and trailing him among women. Obama's favorability rating has slipped from 60 percent in February and 55 percent a month ago to 53 percent, a trend reflected also in Newsweek's new national poll. McCain's favorability rating is 57 percent and Clinton is way behind at 40 percent.
[This set of polls was conducted by SurveyUSA April 11-13:
California: In this "must" state for Democrats, Clinton leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent and Obama is ahead of him 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The biggest gender difference is Clinton's 18 point lead among women voters. The biggest age gap is under-34 voters, where Clinton leads 65 percent to 26 percent and Obama has a 64 percent to 31 percent edge. Both Obama and Clinton have leads in the 2-to-1 range among the 28 percent of the voter sample that is Hispanic. Among independents, it's Clinton who does best against McCain, leading him 51 percent to 36 percent while the difference with Obama is statistically insignificant. Thirty-six percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and Obama and Clinton both lead McCain by about 10 points. Iraq is second at 16 percent and Clinton leads McCain among these voters by 41 points and Obama leads him by 48 points. Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain has 2-to-1 leads over both Democrats.
New Mexico: This race is very competitive with either Democrat in the field, with McCain leading Clinton 49 percent to 46 percent, and Obama by 50 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The change here is that a mid-March SurveyUSA poll had Clinton also ahead of McCain. McCain has double-digit leads over both Democrats among men voters but gives each a run for their money among women voters, even though he is a little behind. The biggest age gaps are in the 35-to-49 group where McCain leads each Democrat by double-digits, while Clinton leads McCain by 18 points among voters under 34, doing better than Obama among this set. Thirty-four percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and McCain is favored above both Democrats by an identical 51 percent to 43 percent margin. Iraq is the second top issue at 15 percent and both Democrats have margins over McCain in the 30 point range among them. McCain runs better here among independents than either Democrat - 22 points better than Clinton and 14 points better than Obama. In an April 8 survey, Rasmussen Reports had Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 42 percent and McCain ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent, both within the 4.5 percent margin of error.
Kansas: It's all McCain here. He leads Clinton 57 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 54 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. There's no gender gap because McCain has big leads among both men and women, and the only age group in which there is much of a difference is the 18-to34s - where McCain has a 21 percent margin over Clinton. McCain has big leads over each Democrat among white voters. Independents overwhelmingly favor him over either. Among the 36 percent of voters who said the economy was the top issue, McCain leads both Democrats and, unlike many of the other states in this round-up, among the 14 percent who name Iraq as the top issue, he runs pretty evenly with both Democrats. Eleven percent of voters cited immigration as the top issue and they favor McCain by margins of 4-to-1 or more.
Alabama: McCain leads Clinton 60 percent to 34 percent and Obama by 64 percent to 32 percent. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. He leads in all gender and age groups by large margins. Among the 73 percent of voters in the sample who are white, McCain leads Clinton 72 percent to 23 percent and Obama by 80 percent to 15 percent. Among the 24 percent who are black, Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent and Obama leads him by 84 percent to 15 percent. Independents favor McCain over each Democrat by about 3-to-1. He has leads of 20 points or more over Obama and Clinton among the 35 percent of voters who name the economy as the top issue. The second top issue (12 percent) was fighting terrorism, and he had identical 87 percent to 13 percent leads over both Democrats. For the 11 percent who chose Iraq, Clinton led McCain by 9 points and Obama edged him by 4 points. Eleven percent also named immigration, and there, McCain led Obama 97 percent to 3 percent and Clinton by 83 percent to 15 percent. Rasmussen Reports had McCain leading Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent and Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent in a survey conducted April 2.
Kentucky: A striking gap between how Clinton and Obama would fare against McCain. McCain has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Clinton, but a 63 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama. The biggest gender number is the 71 percent to 23 percent edge McCain has over Obama among men voters. McCain also trounces Obama in every age group. He has a 41 point lead over Obama among white voters compared to a 7 percent lead over Clinton. Forty-three percent of Kentuckians name the economy as the top issue and McCain is way ahead of Obama on this one. Iraq is the one issue where Obama has any traction against McCain. Of the 13 percent who said this was the top issue, Obama led McCain 55 percent to 40 percent while Clinton led 49 percent to 35 percent.
Here are state-by-state polls posted before the avalanche from SurveyUSA:
Louisiana: McCain leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 41 percent and Hillary Clinton by 58 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted April 9. McCain is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters, Obama by 53 percent and Clinton by 37 percent.
Alaska: McCain leads Clinton by 25 points and Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error, in a poll conducted April 7. McCain's favorable rating is 63 percent, Obama's is 55 percent and Clinton's is 35 percent.
Montana: McCain leads Obama by 48 percent to 43 percent, and is way ahead of Clinton, 54 percent to 36 percent, according to a poll conducted April 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen was impressed by Obama's showing given George W. Bush's 25 point victory in 2004. McCain is viewed favorably by 56 percent of voters, Obama by 54 percent and Clinton by 42 percent.
Connecticut: Obama has a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over McCain in Connecticut, while Clinton leads McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent, according to a [Quinnipiac University poll]conducted March 19-24. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. These results are similar to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted in mid-March. A good deal of Obama's strength comes from independents who favor him 48 percent to 35 percent and voters under 45 who back him by 63 percent to 35 percent. Obama also has a 9 point lead among white voters. - The interesting thing about this poll is the extent to which it mirrors what the national polls are saying about the challenges facing Clinton. Reflecting the national findings of an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, Clinton suffers in Connecticut from high negatives, with 47 percent of voters viewing her unfavorably to 46 percent who view her favorably. Obama's favorability rating is 59 to 24 percent and McCain's is 52 percent to 31 percent. Democrats say Obama would be a good president by a 56 percent to 28 percent margin with 31 percent of his supporters citing his fresh ideas and 19 percent citing his intelligence. Democrats say Clinton would be a good president by a 49 percent to 43 percent with 48 percent of her supporters pointing to her experience and 27 percent to her intelligence. But again, this poll mirrors a finding about Clinton that has shown up in national polls as well. Of her critics, 25 percent say she is dishonest. USAToday/Gallup had did a March 14-16 survey in which 44 percent considered her honest and trustworthy while 53 percent did not.
Nevada: Obama and Clinton have small but statistically insignificant leads over McCain, according to a Rasmussen Reports conducted March 19. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent while Clinton is ahead 44 percent to 43 percent, both within a 4.5 percent margin of error. In mid-February, Obama had led 50 percent to 38 percent, while McCain led Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, which is reflective of the slide Obama has taken in state and national polls during March. Rasmussen notes that Nevada has voted with the winner in the last seven elections, and in the last four, the winning margin was no larger than 4 points. Thirty-nine percent of Nevadans say the economy is the top issue and only 17 percent of them rate it as good or excellent.
Kansas:McCain leads Clinton 55 percent to 36 percent and Obama by 51 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. McCain beats Clinton in all age groups and lags Obama only among voters under 34. He has leads each Democrat by more than 20 points among white voters who made up 87 percent of the sample. More than half of Kansans say they attend religious services regular and McCain leads by 2-to-1 among them. Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as Evangelicals and, there, McCain's leads are in the 3-to-1 range. Thirty-six percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and, in this state, McCain leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent and Obama by roughly the same amount as the poll's margin of error. Among the 12 percent of voters most concerned about Iraq, Clinton and Obama lead McCain but by less than in some other states (an 11 point edge for Clinton and 9 points for Obama). Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain's leads are 3-to-1. His lead on fighting terrorism among the 7 percent of voters who placed that first is 76 percent to 22 percent over Clinton and 87 percent to 11 percent over Obama.
Kentucky: McCain blows away Obama by a 2-to-1 margin (64 percent to 28 percent) and leads Clinton 53 percent to 43 percent in the quest for Kentucky's 8 electoral votes. This SurveyUSA poll was also conducted March 14-16 and the margin of error is 4.3 percent. Here, McCain trails Clinton among voters under 34, but wins in all other age groups by significant margins. He has better than 2-to-1 leads over Obama in every age group. Thirty-nine percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favored McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent over Clinton, and by the wide margin over Obama that he enjoys in almost every category of this poll. Iraq was cited as the top issue by 14 percent and they heavily favored McCain over either Democrat and, as in Missouri, the same was true on the issue of terrorism, which was named by 11 percent. The actual poll figure on terrorism for McCain vs. Obama was 93 percent to 3 percent.
Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 36 percent, says a Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Feb. 11-23.. His margin over Clinton is smaller, 45 percent to 38 percent. The poll says that figure applies to Tennessee adults. When "likely voters" are asked, the margin over Obama is 53 percent to 37 percent. Mike Huckabee also leads Obama or Clinton. The poll says appears to indicate that the margin of error is as high as 8 percent.
And the stability - and negativity - persist when Americans were asked about the future. Eighty-six percent of respondents thought economic conditions were getting worse, while just 10 percent thought they were getting better.
There were no stark differences among groups, but Gallup does note: "Americans living in high-income households, Republicans, and residents of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain states are a bit more likely to have a positive economic outlook than are others; but even the vast majority of these groups are negative about the economy." As an example: 15 percent of Republicans were upbeat, compared to just 3 percent of Democrats.
The nationwide poll was conducted May 1-13 and the margin of error was +/- 1 percent. ]]>
McCain is significantly more popular than Hillary Rodham Clinton among independents, 46 to 41 percent.
In today's Quinnipiac Poll, Obama fared much better among independents, besting McCain 48 to 37 percent.
Gallup cautions against over-interpreting the impact of independents' preferences: "Independents are usually one of the most closely watched swing voter groups each presidential election. However, contrary to expectations, they are not always decisive, in part because turnout among independents is usually lower than it is among those with a political party affiliation."
The pollsters go on to note that George W. Bush in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, Jimmy Carter in 1976, and John F. Kennedy in 1960 all won the popular vote "despite losing among independents." ]]>
The gap was wider for independent voters, thought to be McCain's strength. They picked Obama over McCain, 48-37 percent. But when the matchup was with Clinton, the independents preferred neither, each getting 41 percent.
Democrats overwhelmingly (60-33) favored an Obama-Clinton ticket over any other matchup. At the same time, Democrats continue to want Clinton to stay in the race (63-34).
"Sen. Hillary Clinton's never-say-die campaign still has lots of fans. Just as in delegates, states, money, you-name-it, Obama leads her in national support - but only by a bit," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The telephone survey was conducted May 8-12, after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries and before the West Virginia primary. ]]>
Democratic-voter approval had been as high as 44 percent at the start of the Democratically controlled Congress last January and is now down to 16 percent, nearly one-third of that score. Republicans did not lag behind the Democrats too much in approving the new Congress for most of the first year of the 110th, and now give a 20 percent congressional approval rating.
The partisan divide is much more noticable in the presidential support ratings. While a 66 percent presidential approval rating by Republicans is lower than it had been in previous years, it is substantially higher than his score among Democrats — only 7 percent of Democrats approve of the president’s current performance.
The poll is based on interviews with 1,017 adults conducted May 8-11, and the margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
]]>It is clear that Clinton’s supporters want to see her stay in the race, and that Obama’s supporters want Clinton to give up her candidacy. Seventy-five percent of Clinton supporters, but only 39 percent of Obama supporters, want both to continue. And, 60 percent of Obama supporters want the New York senator to drop her bid.
According to today’s poll, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of Clinton’s supporters would like to see Obama choose the New York senator as a running mate, as would 43 percent of Obama’s supporters. More than half of Obama’s supporters polled, though, reject an Obama-Clinton ticket.
For results based on the sample of 537 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
]]>Three polls have Obama ahead of Clinton by double-digits. Obama leads Clinton 53 percent to 39 percent in a survey conducted May 10-11 by Public Policy Polling. Unlike most other states, the war in Iraq is considered by voters as the top issue with 41 percent saying so, compared to 34 percent who cited the economy. Obama leads Clinton among those who chose Iraq by 63 percent to 31 percent and has a much smaller 48 percent to 44 percent lead over her on the economy. In A surveyUSA poll conducted May 9-11, his lead is 54 percent to 43 percent with a 4 percent margin of error. The SurveyUSA poll still has the economy cited as more important than Iraq, but only by 32 percent to 25 percent. Obama leads among those most concerned with Iraq by 65 percent to 35 percent, and among those who cited the economy by 52 percent to 42 percent. A poll conducted May 8-10 for the Portland Oregonian gave Obama a 55 percent to 35 percent lead.
Kentucky, which also votes next week, is much like West Virginia for Clinton. She leads 60 percent to 32 percent in a poll conducted by SurveyUSA May 9-11
]]>Rasmussen said the biggest surprise was that voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans when it came to national security and fighting terrorism, by a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. On government ethics and integrity, cited as a very important issue by 71 percent of voters, 45 percent trust the Democrats compared to 26 percent for the Republicans.
Rasmussen offers one important caveat on reading too much into these findings as far as what they say about the general election, since its polling has also found that John McCain does better than his party, a conclusion that could also be drawn from the Post/ABC News poll.
]]>Obama is favored over Hillary Clinton by Democrats for their party’s nomination by 53 percent to 41 percent, a 2 point gain for Obama over last month’s poll, and that they believe Obama is more electable in November by 62 percent to 26 percent. The margin of error for the Democratic results is 4 percent. Fifty-six percent of Democrats said the length and contentious of the Democratic contest would make no difference for November while 27 percent said it would the party’s chances. Fifteen percent said it would help.
]]> Asked who Democrats would like to see as Obama’s running mate, Clinton led the pack with 39 percent and John Edwards had 10 percent. All others were in low single digits. When Republicans were asked the same question, only one candidate – Mitt Romney – garnered double-digits, with 12 percent. Condoleezza Rice was next with 5 percent.McCain had a significant advantage over Obama on the question of who had better experience to be President, 71 percent to 18 percent, and he also led Obama 65 percent to 24 percent when it came to who had the better knowledge of foreign affairs. Obama had at least 20 point leads over McCain on being the candidate who would do more to bring about change in Washington, on having a better personality and temperament to be President, on better understanding the problems of people, and having a clearer vision for the future. McCain’s edge on who would be the stronger leader was only 46 percent to 42 percent.
Thirty-nine percent of voters said they were uncomfortable with the idea of McCain taking office at the age of 72.
]]>Hagan scored a runaway victory in the state’s May 6 primary for the right to challenge Dole, and PPP says the visibility she built up during that campaign may have helped. Now it remains to be seen if she can raise the $10 million she says she needs to compete with Dole. As of now, CQ Politics rates the race as “Republican favored” although we note that Dole is vulnerable, in part because her ties to President Bush. Rasmussen noted that Hagan has tried hard to make that connection by noting that Dole votes with Bush 92 percent of the time.
]]>