Though both men are popular in the state, Hoeven tops Dorgan 55 percent to 36 percent, with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Hoeven's margin grows if North Dakota voters are informed that Dorgan supports the Democrat's health care overhaul legislation -- 57 percent to 32 percent for Dorgan.
]]> Just 28 percent of North Dakota voters said they support the health care bill proposed by President Barack Obama. Sixty-two percent oppose it, 48 percent strongly.Hoeven, who it term limited out of the governor's mansion in 2010, has yet to make a decision on the race. Unless he runs, Dorgan is a shoo-in for re-election to a fourth term. He leads Republicans' other candidate Duane Sand, a Navy veteran who ran for Senate in 2000 and Congress in 2004, 60 percent to 28 percent.
Both Hoeven and Dorgan are regarded favorably by strong majorities of the electorate, though the governor trumps the senator in popularity. A whopping 93 percent of North Dakota voters have a favorable opinion of Hoeven, 54 percent very favorable. Just 6 percent have an unfavorable view. Dorgan's favorability is at 73 percent, while 26 percent view him unfavorably.
CQ Politics currently rates the general election contest Safe Democratic, which would certainly change should Hoeven join the race.
To see how the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics' election map.
]]>Really.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll taken Nov. 13-15 found that 82 percent of American adults contacted for the survey said the economy was poor.
And while Americans are looking for someone to blame, they appear to be shifting some of that burden from the Republicans to the Democrats.
]]> At 38 percent the GOP still leads in "who's to blame." But that's down from 53 percent in May. Twenty-seven percent say the Democrats are at fault, a 6 percentage point increase from May, and another 27 percent say both parties are to blame.Two-thirds of the respondents to the survey say they want the federal budget to be balanced, while 30 percent say a deficit is needed at the moment to fund war and economic recovery.
The poll was based on telephone interviews with 1,014 adults nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
]]>Boxer tops former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) among likely California voters, 46 to 37 percent, and state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R) 46 to 36 percent. In both match-ups, 5 percent of voters say they would back some other candidate and 12 to 13 percent were unsure. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Fiorina formally launched her campaign Nov. 4 but does not appear to have gotten much of a bounce out of the roll-out. Boxer's lead over both Republicans is narrower than in a Field Poll released in early October, but holds steady with a Ramussen poll conducted earlier this fall.
]]> Both DeVore and Fiorina have a long way to go to build up their name ID. Thirty-one percent of voters told Rasmussen they have no opinion of Fiorina and 44 percent no opinion of DeVore. Fiorina's favorablity rating reached 40 percent, but just 8 percent view her favorably. Twenty-nine percent view her unfavorably, but that is also soft, with 9 percent rating her very unfavorably.Just 4 percent view DeVore very favorably. Thirty-one percent total view him favorably and 25 percent unfavorably, 7 percent very unfavorably.
A slim majority -- 51 percent -- of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Boxer, but she lives up to her polarizing image in the poll, with 24 percent rating her very favorably and 33 percent very unfavorably. Her total unfavorable rating is at 41 percent.
]]>McCain leads Hayworth 45 percent to 43 percent, with anti-illegal immigration activist Chris Simcox taking 4 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent.
McCain was expected to coast to a 5th term next year, and he still could, if Hayworth doesn't run. He doesn't have a serious general election challenger and Simcox, the other declared Republican, has not shown the capacity to gain much traction among voters.
]]> Hayworth, the conservative former congressman and current talk radio host, hasn't made any overt moves towards a run, but he also hasn't ruled it out. He narrowly lost his 5th District House seat in 2006.McCain has his share of critics, particularly among the conservative base of his party, which makes him vulnerable to a challenge from the right. Yet he still has a positive favorable-to-unfavorable rating among Republican primary voters.
Seventy-four percent rate McCain favorably -- 35 percent very favorably -- while 24 percent rate him unfavorably and 2 percent were unsure. Hayworth's favorability is at 67 percent with 16 percent rating him unfavorably. Sixteen percent were undecided.
Nearly half -- 46 percent -- have no opinion of Simcox. Twenty-seven percent view him favorably and 26 percent unfavorably.
]]>Fox said 46 percent marked a low point in Obama's approval since taking office, which has averaged 56 percent. The high point for his approval in a Fox News poll came a week after his inauguration when it was 65 percent.
Low point or not, the president is better at his job than Congress, which has an approval rating of 26 percent and disapproval of 63 percent, according to the Fox poll.
]]> At 63 percent, first lady Michelle Obama has a higher overall approval rating than the president who's at 54 percent.The poll also found that voters are considerably less happy with Congress. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's overall favorable rating is 28 percent, while her unfavorable is 50 percent.
And in a generic ballot question, asking whether they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress next year, 39 percent said they would vote for the Democrat, and 42 percent said they would vote for a Republican.
The poll was based on telephone interviews with 900 registered voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
]]>Giuliani was all over the headlines in New York on Thursday after associates leaked word he would not run for governor, as many had expected. Giuliani is reportedly more interested in the Senate race, and with good reason, according to the Marist results. He trumps Gillibrand, the freshman senator appointed in January, with a majority of voters, 54 to 40 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
Giuliani leads both among Republicans -- 84 to 12 percent -- and independents -- 55 to 41 percent. He even takes a third of Democratic voters, trailing Gillibrand 59 to 33 percent.
]]> The Democratic breakdown underscores the problems Gillibrand continues to face among her own party base, most of whom had never heard of her she made the leap from House to Senate and many of whom still regard with suspicion her liberal credentials.Giuliani leads in all regions of the state -- New York City, the suburbs and upstate.
In a hypothetical Senate primary between two of New York's most recent past GOP leaders, Giuliani has a big lead former Gov. George Pataki, 71 to 24 percent. The margin of error in the Republican sub-sample was 7 percent.
Marist also polled Giuliani in gubernatorial contests against Democratic incumbent David Paterson and likely Democratic candidate Andrew Cuomo, currently the state's attorney general. As in other recent polls, Giuliani enjoys a wide lead over Paterson, 60 percent to 35 percent, but trails Cuomo, 43 percent to 53 percent.
Giuliani is well ahead of former Rep. Rick Lazio, the one declared Republican in the gubernatorial race, 71 to 24 percent. "Giuliani's decision has breathed new life into" Lazio's campaign, Marist wrote in their polling analysis.
]]>Whitman and Brown each pull 41 percent of support among likely voters in the Democratic leaning state, the poll found. Three percent would support some other candidate and 14 percent are unsure. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Whitman trailed Brown 35 percent to 44 percent in the last Rasmussen poll.
]]> Brown continues to lead two other prospective GOP opponents -- state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell. He tops Poizner 43 to 32 percent with 7 percent supporting another candidate and 18 percent unsure. Against Campbell, he leads 42 to 33 percent, while another 6 percent back another candidate and 19 percent are unsure.Brown remains far better known than any of the Republican candidates, and is also a more polarizing figure. Forty-eight percent view him favorably, 24 percent very favorably, and 41 percent view him unfavorably, 30 percent very unfavorably.
Whitman, who has already burned through millions of her own money on advertising in the state, is the best known candidate in the GOP feld, with a 37 percent to 27 percent favorable-unfavorable ratio and just over a quarter of likely voters unsure how they feel about her.
Both Poizner and Campbell have favorable rates in the 30s and unfavorable rates in the 20s. Thirty-eight percent have no opinion of Poizner and 39 percent no opinion of Campbell.
Brown has not formally announced his candidacy, but with San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D) dropping out of the race late last month, he is the only Democrat seriously preparing for a campaign at the moment. The latest poll findings, however, may encourage other California Democrats -- Sen. Dianne Feinstein's and Rep. Jane Harman's names have been floated -- to take another look at the race.
]]>While 74 percent of the respondents to the survey say they like Obama as a person, 47 percent say they like his policies, the Quinnipiac poll found.
"Most Americans like President Barack Obama and might like to have a beer with him," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But millions of voters who sided with him last November because they thought he would bring change to Washington aren't crazy about the kind of change he is trying to bring."
]]> Voters in the survey disapproved of Obama's handling of health care 53 percent to 41 percent, although a plurality said they trusted him more than Republicans in Congress to handle the issue 45 percent to 36 percent.And there seems to be a general feeling of restlessness among voters, 69 percent of whom say they are dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the nation today." Thirty percent say they are satisfied.
The poll was based on telephone interviews with 2,518 registered voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
]]>Forty-seven percent said the president should send in the additional troops that his commanders in Afghanistan have requested, but 55 percent said the American commitment should be for two years or less.
"Overall, the new numbers on Afghanistan show an almost across the board erosion of support for the war and worries about getting too deeply involved there militarily. But when the focus is on fighting terror, American resolve remains strong," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
]]> Obama's approval rating overall has slipped below 50 percent, with 48 percent now approving of his performance in the White House and 42 percent disapproving. His highest approval rating in this poll came last June when it reached 59 percent.Approval of his handling of the war in Afghanistan also has slipped, with 38 percent approving in this latest poll and 49 percent disapproving. Early last month it was 42 percent approving and 40 percent disapproving.
While 48 percent say the United States is doing the right thing by fighting in Afghanistan, 54 percent say the goal of the war should not be the establishment of a stable, democratic government there. Instead, 65 percent say the goal should be to eliminate the threat of Afghanistan being used as a base by terrorists, even though 53 percent say the United States will fail to reach that goal.
The poll was based on telephone interviews with 2,518 registered voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
]]>The same poll found that 56 percent favor creating a federally run health insurance program to compete with private insurance companies, and 66 percent said state governments should not be allowed to decide whether the federal insurance would apply everyone in the state.
The CNN poll found the public evenly split 49 percent-49 percent on whether the government should require everyone in the country to obtain health insurance, and 66 percent were opposed to cutting back federal spending on managed care programs under Medicare.
]]> But the poll showed support for other aspects of the health care overhaul bill approved by the House, including requiring large and mid-size businesses to provide health insurance for employees (73 percent), a prohibition against health insurers to cut off coverage to people who are seriously ill (60 percent), and providing subsidies to help families of certain incomes afford health insurance.The poll was based on telephone interviews with 1,014 adults nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
]]>Carnahan, the Missouri Secretary of State, drew 43 percent support in the poll of 763 voters. Blunt, who represents the southwestern 7th District in the U.S. House, had 42 percent.
Carnahan is running even with Blunt even though more respondents think unfavorably (38 percent) than favorably (30 percent) of the Republican. Carnahan is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent.
]]> But Blunt's campaign is helped by President Obama's mediocre approval rating in the state, which Obama narrowly lost last year to John McCain. Obama has an approval rating of 43 percent and a disapproval rating of 52 percent, and 55 percent disapprove of his plans to overhaul the health care system.Blunt is serving his seventh term in the House and is a former member of the GOP leadership team, though his long government service is not a major asset. When respondents were asked if Blunt's 13 years in Congress made him "part of the problem or part of the solution when it comes to huge deficits and too much government spending," 65 percent said that made Blunt part of the problem.
Carnahan and Blunt have sparred for months as if they were already general election opponents. Democrats say Blunt is too close to lobbyists and Republicans say Carnahan has ducked discussion of major issues and votes.
Blunt is being challenged in the Republican primary next August by state Sen. Chuck Purgason, who is running a lightly funded campaign. Blunt leads Purgason by 53 percent to 16 percent. Purgason trails Carnahan by 42 percent to 35 percent.
Carnahan has not drawn opposition in the Democratic primary.
No incumbent is defending the seat because Republican Sen. Christopher S. Bond is not seeking re-election.
CQ Politics presently rates the Missouri Senate race as a tossup.
To see how the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out our election map.
-- Greg Giroux
]]>A telephone poll of 873 adults conducted Nov. 13-15 by CBS News showed 23 percent have a favorable view of the former Alaska governor. That matches her favorable rating in July, when Palin announced she was resigning from her job as governor.
Thirty-eight percent, meanwhile, have an unfavorable view of her -- also roughly matching her July rating. Another 37 percent say they are undecided or haven't heard enough. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
On the political side, a CNN poll indicated fewer than three in 10 Americans think Palin is qualified to be president.
]]> According to the poll, 28 percent of Americans say Palin is qualified to run the White House, with seven in 10 saying she is not qualified.The survey of 1,014 adults, conducted Nov. 13-15, indicates that a majority of Republicans, 54 percent, feel Palin is qualified, with 44 percent indicating she isn't. But only 29 percent of independent voters questioned feel she is qualified to serve as president, with 68 percent disagreeing. According to the poll, nine in 10 Democrats feel Palin is not qualified.
"The perception that Palin is not qualified to be president puts her significantly behind two potential rivals for the GOP nomination in 2012 - Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
The survey's margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
]]>While a 56 percent to 42 percent majority approve of the way President Obama is handling his job, 47 percent approve of his handling of the health care issue, and 49 percent disapprove, according to The Post-ABC poll.
This fits a pattern with other polls on the issue showing people evenly divided on the plans to alter the delivery and payment for health care in this country. And in polls for The Post and ABC News, public opinion last spring favored overhauling the health system, but that sentiment flipped in August with more people disapproving than approving. The two sides of this issue have been virtually tied since then.
]]> At the same time, people trust Democrats over Republicans by 50 percent to 37 percent to handle the issue of changing the health system.Still, that doesn't mean they're deeply impressed by what they've seen so far.
Nineteen percent say their own health care would improve if the system were changed, but 37 percent say it would get worse, and 42 percent say it would stay the same.
Those are the same kinds of numbers racked up by former President Clinton's attempt to change the health care system in the 1990s. That effort withered without an up or down vote in Congress.
A separate poll for The Associated Press by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Stanford University found 57 percent acceptance of a proposal to raise income taxes on people earning more than $250,000 a year to help finance the government's share of health care costs. The AP said its polling showed that people were concerned about their own costs going up but were willing to tax wealthy Americans to push new costs onto the wealthy.
The Post-ABC News poll was based on telephone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The AP poll was based on telephone interviews with 1,502 adults from Oct. 29-Nov. 8 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
]]>The poll shows Biden now leading Castle 45 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent saying they would vote for someone else.
In a Susquehanna poll in April, Castle was leading Biden 55 percent to 34 percent.
]]> Susquehanna said Biden picked up support among independent voters and theorized that Castle's support may have declined because of his vote in the House against a bill overhauling the nation's health care system that was supported by the Obama administration and Democrats in Congress. Castle cast that vote during the week before the poll was taken.The poll was based on automated telephone contact with 850 likely voters in Delaware and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.36 percent.
CQ Politics currently rates the race Leans Republican
To follow all the 2010 Senate races, check out our election map.
]]>Coleman, who lost a seven-month recount battle to Democrat Al Franken for Minnesota's Senate seat, has not indicated that he intends to run. But if he does, he starts with a huge lead over the rest of the GOP field among likely voters, with 50 percent of the vote. In second, at 11 percent, is state Rep. Marty Seifert, who stepped down from his post as House minority leader to run for governor.
Seifert is followed by state Rep. Laura Brod, who received 5 percent of GOP support despite withdrawing from the race for medical reasons, and state Rep. Tom Emmer who came in at 1 percent. Seven percent of likely Republican voters supported another candidate and 26 percent remain unsure. The margin of error was 5.5 percent.
]]> There is no clear favorite on the Democratic side, with Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton each garnering 30 percent of the Democratic electorate. State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, was next with 8 percent followed by Matt Entenza, former state Rep. and minority leader from 2003 to 2006, at 6 percent.Five percent of likely Democratic voters support another candidate and 20 percent are undecided. The margin of error was 5 percent.
The open seat governor's race has attracted a crowd on both sides of the aisle. Incumbent Tim Pawlenty announced in June that he would not run for a third term and instead exploring a 2012 presidential run.
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