Obama gets slightly worse marks for trying to cooperate with Republicans than President Clinton received in September of 1995. People now are evenly divided 49 percent to 49 percent over whether the president has done enough to reach out to Republicans on the health care issue. The same poll in 1995 found that President Clinton was seen as a bit more cooperative with the opposition 51 percent to 38 percent.
Republicans 14 years ago weren't seen as any more cooperative than they are now. In the latest poll, as in the one in 1995, 31 percent of the respondents said the GOP was cooperating. But now there's a slight uptick in how many people see them as uncooperative, 67 percent, versus 57 percent in 1995.
]]> Most telling, perhaps, is that public opinion has flipped in its support for the White House plan, now opposed by 53 percent and favored by 45 percent. That, too, is similar to the mid-1990s, when a CNN poll in July 1995 found health care overhaul was opposed by 55 percent and favored by 40 percent.The CNN poll was conducted by Opinion Research Corp. and was based on telephone interviews with 1,018 adults nationwide. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
]]>According to the poll by Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research Whitman leads former Rep. Tom Campbell 34.3 percent to 12.5 percent, with Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner a distant third at 5.5 percent.
About 7 percent of the 750 respondents said they preferred someone else and 35 percent were undecided.
On the Democratic side, the poll tested only Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who has dropped out. Brown was ahead, as he was in other polls, 43 percent to 18 percent.
]]> The poll asked Republican voters whether they were bothered by the fact that Whitman has not voted in more than half of the federal, state and local elections since she registered in 2002. Thirty-three percent said it made no difference to them, nearly 54 percent said it made them somewhat or much less likely to vote for her, and nearly 9 percent seemed to find some virtue in her voting record, saying they were somewhat or more likely to back her.Nearly half of Republicans said that disclosures that Poizner gave a total of $20,000 to Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 presidential race made it much less likely they would vote for him.
]]>Hardly a surprise, but the numbers are telling: 3 percent of Texas voters approve of the way the Congress is doing its job, and 2 percent approve of the way their friends and neighbors in the state Legislature are doing their job.
Forty-one percent approve of the way President Obama is doing his job and 52 percent disapprove. Thirty-six percent approve of the way Gov. Rick Perry is doing his job and 54 percent disapprove. And 39 percent approve of the way Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is doing her job while 27 percent disapprove.
Hutchison is getting ready to challenge Perry in next year's gubernatorial primary.
Forty-two percent of those likely to vote in the Republican gubernatorial primary say they would vote for Perry, and 19 percent of likely Democratic voters say they would support singer and songwriter Kinky Friedman for their party's nomination. That put Friedman well at the top of six potential Democratic candidates for governor.
The poll conducted via the Internet by YouGov/Polimetrix for the University of Texas and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
]]>A Public Policy Polling survey put McDonnell ahead of Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds by 56 percent to 42 percent. A SurveyUSA poll gave McDonnell an even larger advantage, 58 percent to 40 percent.
This pre-primary polling suggests that McDonnell could match the 58 percent vote share of Republican George Allen in 1993 or the 56 percent vote share of Republican Jim Gilmore in 1997. Regardless of McDonnell's margin of victory, he is assured of preventing Democrats from following up on the victories of Democrats Mark Warner in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005.
In the PPP survey, more respondents view Deeds unfavorably than favorably, and he trails McDonnell by 63 percent to 33 percent among political independents. In the SurveyUSA poll, McDonnell had a 60 percent to 35 percent lead among independents and is even winning 18 percent of self-described Democrats and 19 percent of African-American voters.
More than three in five people surveyed by PPP said that McDonnell was going to win the election, and two in three said that Deeds hadn't made a strong case for why he should be elected governor.
CQ Politics rates the Virginia governor's race as Likely Republican.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
]]>Christie has a narrow lead in the Quinnipiac poll over Corzine 42 to 40 percent, within the 2.5 percent margin of error. Both men have essentially the same proportion of support from their party's likely voters, while Christie has the support of independents, 47 percent to 32 percent for Corzine.
Daggett received 12 percent of the vote, down a point from the 13 percent he polled in a survey the firm released Oct. 28. That largely echoes poll results released Thursday by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
]]> Daggett's vote share on election day is likely the key to the race, but its unclear whether a large turn-out for him would ultimately benefit Christie or Corzine more. Conventional wisdom has held that Daggett is taking more voters from Christie than Corzine, but in the latest survey, 39 percent of likely Daggett voters said they would back the Democrat second, compared to 29 percent who would pick Christie second. Seventeen percent said they wouldn't vote.Overall, Daggett voters are much less certain than their counterparts of their final vote. Thirty-eight percent of his backers said they might change their mind on election day, versus just 10 percent of Christie voters and 13 percent of Corzine voters.
A majority -- 53 percent -- of voters continue to hold an unfavorable opinion of Corzine, including 64 percent of independents. Christie's favorable and unfavorable ratings are essentially even; 41 percent view him favorably to 40 percent who view him unfavorably. Daggett is the only one with a significant net favorable ratings -- 23 percent to 17 percent -- but 57 percent of respondents said they hadn't heard enough about Daggett to form an opinion.
]]>In the survey of 906 registered voters, 46 percent said they preferred to send a Democrat to Congress, 44 percent chose a Republican and 10 percent were undecided. It was a "generic ballot" question that did not mention the names of particular candidates.
In July, Democrats pulled 50 percent in Gallup's generic ballot test, Republications that same 44 percent and 7 percent of those polled called themselves undecided.
"Given the usual Democratic advantages in party identification among the general public, it is rare for Republicans to lead on the generic ballot among registered voters. This was the case even when Republicans were the majority congressional party from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s," Gallup said.
]]> However, historical patterns show that "If Republicans are close to being tied or are ahead, it will suggest the possibility of a strong Republican year unless Democrats have an unusually strong and disproportionate turnout advantage." ]]>Crist angered some of his fellow Republicans last February when he appeared on stage for an event with President Obama to build support for an economic stimulus package that was widely opposed by the GOP.
About two-thirds of Republican voters responding to the poll disagreed with Crist's decision to appear with the president, and half of them said they strongly opposed it, according to The Miami Herald, one of the news organizations sponsoring the survey. The other two news sponsors were Bay News 9 and the St. Petersburg Times.
]]> Forty-two percent of likely voters said Crist was doing a good or excellent job as governor.Still, he leads in his GOP Senate primary race against former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. The poll found Crist favored by 50 percent of Republican voters, with 28 percent for Rubio and 22 percent undecided.
The poll was based on telephone interviews with 600 registered Florida voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
It was conducted by two polling firms, Schroth, Eldon and Associates serving primarily Democratic clients, and the Polling Co. which is largely engaged by Republicans.
CQ Politics rates the Senate race Likely Republican.
To follow all the 2010 Senate races, check out the CQ Politics election map.
]]>According to the survey, 48 percent of respondents said they approve of Strickland's performance as governor and 37 percent said they disapprove. Six months ago, Strickland's numbers were 56 percent approve and 34 percent disapprove.
Barely two in five respondents (41 percent) said they approve of Strickland's handling of the economy, compared to 49 percent who said they disapprove.
]]> President Obama has a higher favorability rating than Strickland (52 percent) but also a higher unfavorability rating (45 percent) in the state where defeated John McCain by 52 percent to 47 percent in the 2008 presidential balloting.Strickland's Republican opponent almost certainly will be John Kasich, a former House member from the Columbus area.
CQ Politics at the moment rates the Ohio governor's race as Likely Democratic.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
]]>In a three-way race, Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 41 percent to 39 among likely voters, including those leaning one way or the other. Independent Chris Daggett takes 14 percent of the vote. The margin of error is 4 percent.
Christie continues to lead among independent voters, at 37 percent, with Daggett at 27 percent and Corzine at 22 percent. Daggett receives the support of 13 percent each of Democrats and Republican likely voters.
]]> The vast majority of respondents have now heard of Daggett, the Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds, but 31 percent have no opinion of him. His favorable and unfavorable ratings have both risen -- to 28 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable.Both Christie and Corzine continue to have a net unfavorable rating among likely voters. Christie's rating is 44 to 41 percent unfavorable-favorable, compared to 42 to 35 percent in the FDU poll released Oct. 6. Corzine is at 54 to 39 percent, almost identical to where he was at the beginning of the month.
CQ Politics currently rates the race a Tossup.
]]>Among likely voters, Owens, an attorney, leads Hoffman, an accountant running on the state Conservative Party line, 33 to 32 percent, well within the 4 percentage point margin of error. Republican Dede Scozzafava lags behind at 21 percent. Fourteen percent remain undecided in the 23rd District, which takes in the Northeast corner of the state. Nine-term Rep. John M. McHugh resigned the seat in September to become Secretary of the Army.
Owens held relatively steady compared to the DailyKos poll released Oct. 23, which had him at 35 percent of the vote. The big swing is in the standing of Hoffman and Scozzafava, who continue their dramatic movement in opposite directions.
]]> Scozzafava, a longtime state Assemblywoman who started the race in the lead, was in second last week to Owens with 30 percent of the vote while Hoffman trailed in third at 23 percent. In just seven days the two have essentially swapped places, though the movement towards Hoffman has been building for some time.Over the past month, national conservative groups have mounted an aggressive campaign in his behalf, going after Scozzafava as a liberal masquerading as a Republican because of her support for abortion rights, gay marriage and organized labor, among other stances.
The Republican party continues to stand behind Scozzafava, but the shift in momentum towards Hoffman prompted defections from a number of Republican Members this week. The latest are Reps. Mary Fallin, R-Okla., Todd Akin R-Mo., Paul Broun, R-Ga., Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., John C. Fleming, R-La., Steve King, R-Iowa, Tom McClintock, R-Calif., Jerry Moran, R-Kan., John Shadegg, R-Ariz., Mark Sounder, R-Ind., and Trent Franks R-Ariz.
Franks sent out an e-mail Thursday saying that while he "traditionally never supported third party candidates" he is making an exception in the 23rd District race because Scozzafava is "radically out of the mainstream on issues that constitute the core of the Republican Party's principles."
The hammering from the right as well as the left has taken a toll on Scozzafava's popularity -- 46 percent of likely voters now have an unfavorable opinion of her, 22 percent very unfavorable. Thirty-two percent hold a favorable opinion of the Republican nominee and 22 percent have no opinion.
Neither Hoffman nor Owens are particularly well known -- nearly 40 percent of respondents do not have an opinion of either man -- but both enjoy net favorable ratings.
Hoffman now leads amongst both Republican and independent voters. Forty-one percent of GOP respondents said they are backing the Conservative Party nominee, compared to 34 percent for Scozzafava. Scozzafava led 46 to 27 among those voters in last week's poll.
Hoffman is up 47 percent to 28 percent for Owens among independents, also a jump from last week when Owens and Hoffman were essentially splitting that vote. And Owens has solidified his grasp on Democratic voters, with 64 percent of the vote, dashing the Scozzafava camp's hopes of peeling away a significant portion of Democrats thanks to her social positions.
Abortion rights groups are hoping to change that in the next few days -- NARAL Pro-Choice New York just launched a campaign in Scozzafav's behalf that includes mail to more than 10,000 households and volunteer phone banking "highlighting Scozzafava's many pro-choice, pro-active votes in the State Assembly and her distinction as the only 100% pro-choice candidate in the race."
But the key battle at this point is likely to be over moderate Republicans and independents and whether Owens can woo Scozzafava's remaining backers in high enough numbers to hold off the Hoffman surge.
]]>The survey of 625 voters who are likely to vote on Nov. 3 gives McDonnell 54 percent of the vote and Deeds 36 percent of the vote. By wide margins, Respondents prefer McDonnell to Deeds on the issues of handling economic development, state budget policy, transportation and education.
By a 56 percent to 29 percent margin, self-described political independents back McDonnell over Deeds.
]]> The Virginia electorate is divided on President Obama, who campaigned for Deeds on Tuesday. According to the poll, 49 percent think the president is doing an excellent or good job and 48 percent say he is doing a fair or poor job.CQ Politics rates the Virginia governor's race as Leans Republican.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
]]>The survey found Specter ahead of Sestak by 12 points, 30 percent to 18 percent, but 47 percent said they were undecided.
In a similar poll from the end of August, Specter led Sestak by a larger margin, 37 percent to 11 percent, among polled registered Democrats.
Matched against likely Republican nominee Pat Toomey, a former congerssman, the latest poll of 529 registered voters put Specter in the lead by the narrowest of margins -- 33 percent to 31 percent, with 30 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 points.
Specter switched parties after polls showed he would have a hard time winning a Republican primary against Toomey. But the Franklin and Marshall survey is the latest in a series of independent polls showing that voters aren't certain that Specter deserves a sixth Senate term.
CQ Politics currently rates the general election race Leans Democratic.
-- Shira Toeplitz
]]>CNN's poll found that a whopping seven in 10 Americans surveyed don't think that the Republican Party's 2008 vice presidential nominee is qualified to be president.
The NBC-Wall Street Journal poll tracks Palin's general popularity, and found that at a new low, with 11 percent of those surveyed having very positive feelings toward her and another 16 percent having somewhat positive feelings about her. Last October, polling registered voters, Palin's numbers were much higher -- 26 percent very favorable and 18 percent somewhat favorable.
]]>The survey gave McDonnell, a former state Attorney General, a 54 percent to 41 percent advantage over Deeds, a state senator. That finding is consistent with the results of numerous other polls in the past week that gave McDonnell a double-digit lead.
According to the poll, which canvassed 1,000 registered voters who say they are likely to vote in the Nov. 3 election, 62 percent of respondents said that they had either a "very favorable" or "somewhat favorable" impression of McDonnell, compared to 30 percent who said they had an unfavorable impression of the Republican.
]]> The news was a lot worse for Deeds -- 47 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable.CQ Politics rates the Virginia governor's race as Leans Republican.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
-- Greg Giroux
]]>The poll found that the Democratic governor was favored by 43 percent of likely voters, compared with 38 percent who favored his GOP challenger. The margin of error was 2.8 percent.
Christie, a former U.S. attorney, led Corzine all summer, but was in a virtual tie -- 41 to 40 percent -- in Quinnipiac's last poll released Oct. 14. Independent Chris Daggett's support among likely voters seems locked in the low teens --13 percent of respondents said they would vote for him, a drop of one percent from the poll two weeks ago.
]]> The Quinnipiac findings are at odds with a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday, which showed Daggett now drawing more voters from Corzine than Christie. In the Quinnipiac poll, 43 percent of likely Daggett voters said Christie was their second choice, while 27 percent would chose Corzine second.While 81 percent of likely voters overall said their minds are now made up, a much lower proportion -- 60 percent -- of Daggett backers are certain of their vote. Thirty-eight percent said they may still change their mind.
And 68 percent of likely voters surveyed think Daggett has no chance of winning. Though that is an improvement over two weeks ago, when 77 percent thought he had no shot, it could still dampen turn-out for him since voters tend to not vote for third party candidates if they think they are throwing their vote away.
Corzine looks stronger on a number of measure than he has in some time, the Quinnipiac poll found. The incumbent's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio, while still negative, has improved greatly since July, with his favorable rating rising to a new high of 41 percent. In contrast, Christie's unfavorable rating hit a high of 42 percent, compared to 37 percent who view the Republican favorably.
A narrow plurality of respondents also now say Corzine is trustworthy and honest, 46 to 44 percent. Christie ratings on honesty have sunk -- 37 percent to 39 percent who do not think he is honest and trustworthy.
One point of attack does seem to be working for Christie -- 60 percent of voters think property taxes will go up under Corzine, while just 2 percent think they will go down and 34 percent think they will stay the same. A plurality -- 44 percent -- think property taxes will stay about the same if Christie is elected. New Jersey has some of the highest property taxes in the country and Christie has focused much of his campaign on residents' tax concerns.
CQ Politics currently rates the race a [Tossup.}(http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=governor-2009-NJ)
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