Massachusetts: Attorney General Has the Lead in Senate Democratic Primary

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Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll of 600 registered voters conducted Nov. 4-8.

Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as across every region of the state. She also leads in every age group except the youngest (18- to 34-year-olds) and the oldest (75-plus), where she is tied with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44 percent of the primary vote, with Pagliuca second at 17 percent. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16 percent and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3 percent.

Coakley's lead stems in large part from her high name recognition and favorability ratings. Of the voters interviewed for this poll, 57 percent have a favorable opinion of her, compared with 21 percent whose opinion is unfavorable. Just 7 percent do not recognize her name.

Capuano had the second highest favorable rating, at 38 percent, with Pagliuca at 35 percent. Both had an 18 percent unfavorable rating. Sixteen percent have never heard of Capuano, and 17 percent have never heard of Pagliuca, the managing partner of investment firm Bain Capital who has used his personal wealth to run an aggressive television ad campaign.

A majority -- 51 percent -- have never heard of Khazei.

The poll held at least one positive take-away for Capuano and Pagliuca as they seek to run down Coakley in the final month before the Dec. 8 primary. A plurality -- 31 percent -- of Democratic voters said Pagliuca is running the best campaign thus far. And Capuano led the field among Democratic voters when asked which candidate was most like Ted Kennedy.

In the two-man Republican primary, state Sen. Scott Brown has a big lead -- 45 percent to 7 percent -- over lawyer Jack E. Robinson, who lost resoundingly to Kennedy in 2000 and also ran unsuccessful campaigns for a House seat and for secretary of the Commonwealth. Almost half -- 47 percent -- of GOP voters are undecided.

Neither primary race is likely to attract a very large turnout: Only 27 percent of likely Democratic voters and 6 percent of likely Republican voters knew the primary election was being held in December.

In potential match-ups for the Jan. 19 general election, Coakley leads Brown, 58 percent to 27 percent. Capuano tops Brown, 48 percent to 29 percent, and Pagliuca beats Brown, 49 percent to 27 percent. But Brown nips Khazei, 33 percent to 30 percent.

The Democratic candidates have been duking it out over health care and Afghanistan, even though a plurality of voters (43 percent) said the most important issue facing the state's next U.S. senator was the economy/jobs.

"The issues in this election favor OUR campaign as the voters demand less government spending, lower taxes, and have an increasing distrust of the federal government," Brown wrote in an e-mail to supporters. "But we need to get our message out," he continued, urging supporters to donate so the campaign can begin airing advertisements.

Ads for all four Democrats are already on the air.

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