Generic Ballot: Democrats' Edge Down

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Republicans appear to be heading into the 2010 elections in good shape to be competitive in congressional races nationwide, according to a Gallup Poll conducted Oct. 1-4.

In the survey of 906 registered voters, 46 percent said they preferred to send a Democrat to Congress, 44 percent chose a Republican and 10 percent were undecided. It was a "generic ballot" question that did not mention the names of particular candidates.

In July, Democrats pulled 50 percent in Gallup's generic ballot test, Republications that same 44 percent and 7 percent of those polled called themselves undecided.

"Given the usual Democratic advantages in party identification among the general public, it is rare for Republicans to lead on the generic ballot among registered voters. This was the case even when Republicans were the majority congressional party from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s," Gallup said.

However, historical patterns show that "If Republicans are close to being tied or are ahead, it will suggest the possibility of a strong Republican year unless Democrats have an unusually strong and disproportionate turnout advantage."

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