Independent candidate Chris Daggett's growing popularity among independents has cut into Republican Chris Christie's lead in the New Jersey governor's race, but a majority of Daggett voters may change their minds about backing him, according to Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 7 through 12.
Christie, who has led in the polls against Daggett and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine since the spring, has seen a drop in his support among likely independent voters, which is contributing to a narrowing gap with Corzine. The Quinnipiac poll found that between September and October, Christie's rate of support among independents fell from 45 percent to 41 percent, with Corzine holding steady at 32 percent and Daggett jumping from 16 percent to 20 percent.
All told, Christie now leads Corzine just 41 to 40 percent among likely voters, within the plus or minus 2.8 percent margin of error, with Daggett coming in at 14 percent. In the September Quinnipiac poll, Christie led Corzine 43 to 39 percent and Daggett earned 12 percent of the vote. That confirms other recent polls that show the race in a virtual tie.
But while Daggett has seen a surge of popularity of late, thanks to a growing statewide profile and voter displeasure over the two major-party candidates, it's unclear whether he'll ultimately earn that backing on election day. Seventy-five percent of Corzine supporters said their mind was made up and 83 percent of Christie supporter said the same, but 59 percent of Daggett supporters said they might change their minds in the next three weeks.
"Historically, third party candidates fade on election day. Apparently, voters agree," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Very few of his backers are committed to independent candidate Christopher Daggett and 77 percent of all voters say he has no chance of winning."
Of the likely voters who said they were backing Daggett, 33 percent said Corzine was their second choice and 40 percent said Christie.
Both the major party candidates now have higher unfavorable-to-favorable ratings, though Corzine's standing -- at 53 percent unfavorable -- is the best it has been in months. Christie's 40 percent unfavorable to 38 percent favorable marks the first time he's crossed the line into unfavorable territory.
Seventy-three percent of voters still have not heard enough about Daggett to form an opinion.
CQ Politics currently rates the race as Leans Republican.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
-- Emily Cadei
![[RSS]](http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/templates/images/rss_icon.gif){kind=icon}
![[ARCHIVES]](http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/templates/images/archives_icon.png){kind=icon}
Post A Comment