Good news for Pennsylvania Republicans in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 22-28: former Rep. Pat Toomey, their likely nominee for a 2010 Senate seat, is running essentially even with either Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter or his top primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak.
The survey of 1,100 registered voters puts Toomey at 43 percent and Specter at 42 percent in a hypothetical November 2010 matchup of the two men who battled in a 2004 Republican primary. Specter switched parties in April.
In the other general election matchup that the survey tested, Toomey had 38 percent and Sestak had 35 percent.
In the Democratic primary, Specter continues to enjoy a big lead over Sestak, 44 percent to 25 percent, though the large number of undecided voters suggests that the Sestak's deficit is not insurmountable.
Specter has mediocre approval ratings, with 42 percent of respondents saying they have a favorable opinion of the senator and 46 percent saying they have an unfavorable opinion. He's doing well among self-identified Democrats (67/20 fav/unfav) but struggling among political independents (41/45) and voters in union households (38/51).
Toomey and Sestak are still mostly unknown throughout the state, with 53 percent of respondents saying that they don't know enough about Toomey to render either a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of him. For Sestak, that figure was 70 percent.
CQ Politics presently rates the Pennsylvania Senate race as Leans Democratic, a designation that gives the named party a slender edge in a highly competitive race. Polling data are an important criterion in determining race ratings.
To see how the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics' election map.
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