Democrat Bill Owens has taken a narrow lead over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the special election in upstate New York’s 23rd District, according to a new Siena College poll conducted Oct. 11-13.
Owens, a lawyer and first-time candidate, is up 33 percent to 29 percent for Scozzafava, a longtime state assemblywoman, among likely voters, just outside the plus or minus 3.9 percentage point margin of error.
Two weeks ago, Scozzafava led Owens 35 percent to 27 percent in a Siena poll.
“Scozzafava’s seven-point lead has evaporated over the last two weeks, as voters have gotten to know all the candidates better,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg in a release.
Perhaps most significantly, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is now earning nearly a quarter of the vote, at 23 percent compared to 16 percent Oct 1. Much of it comes from independents and Republican voters, with 31 percent and 27 percent, respectively, backing his bid.
Sixteen percent of likely voters remain undecided about who should succeed Republican John M. McHugh in the 23rd District. McHugh left Congress to become Secretary of the Army.
The electorate is still in flux, however, with three weeks until the Nov. 3 election. Just over a third, 36 percent, of likely voters say they are absolutely certain about whom they will vote for.
“With one in six voters still undecided, who these undecided voters choose to support — if they choose to vote at all — will likely determine the outcome of this race,” said Greenberg. “And given how tight the race is, this election may very well be won by a candidate with less than 40 percent of all the votes cast.”
CQ Politics currently rates the race as a Tossup.
To follow the 2010 House races, check out the CQ Politics election map
— Emily Cadei
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Comments
INEPT, STUPID, MORONIC NY state GOP!!!!!!!!!!
Scozzafava is for card-check, for the "Stupidous Act", for the left-wing NY state budget??? She's married to a union thug---why exactly is she a Republican again? The only thing one can like about her is her name, good Italian surname (might be her husbands, though).
The social issues can be overlooked to some extent, but come on. Owens is probably more conservative than she is.
Posted by: NObama
| October 15, 2009 6:14 PM
Nobama has a problem with the stupid NYS GOP, What Nobama doesn't understand is that NYS voters are the leading edge of the roll back of conservative policies.
It is clear that from Bush to teabaggers the GOP and its conservative, "indpendent," allies have run the economy into the ground, destroyed the instruments of American power in the world, and are notably corrupt, even in the context of American politcs.
Scozzafava represents the worst aspects of the NYS Senate GOP caucus. The Senators who deplore the high taxes found here, but always find ways to increase state spending.
Posted by: Robert Chapman
| October 15, 2009 7:27 PM
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