Poll Tracker

Owens is beginning to consolidate support among his party base, the Daily Kos poll shows, with 60 percent of likely Democratic voters backing him compared to 16 percent for Scozzafava and 8 percent for Hoffman. Scozzafava is having less success with Republican voters, thanks in large part to Hoffman's presence in the race. Forty-six percent of likely GOP voters said they would back her, while Hoffman pulls 27 percent and Owens 18 percent.

But it is independent voters where Scozzafava is having the most trouble, despite having the endorsement of the state's influential Independence Party. Those non-affiliated voters are split between Owens and Hoffman -- 35 percent for Hoffman and 32 percent for Owens -- while Scozzafava comes in at 22 percent.

Few of the voters supporting Hoffman had a clear second choice for their vote were he not in the race. Sixty-two percent told Daily Kos pollsters they were undecided about whom they would get behind if Hoffman wasn't running, and another 26 percent said they would stay home rather than back either Owens and Scozzafava. Among those who voiced a second choice, 9 percent were for Scozzafava and 3 percent for Owens.

Despite the intensity of the campaign, which has drawn increasing national attention thanks to the battle between different factions of the Republican party, none of the candidates are particularly well-known to district voters.

Scozzafava, who has served in the New York state Assembly for a decade, had the highest name ID but also had the highest unfavorable ratings. Overall, 38 percent had a favorable view of her, while 35 viewed her as unfavorable and 27 percent were undecided. Owens' favorable rating was 33 percent to 24 percent unfavorable with 43 percent undecided.

A majority -- 54 percent -- of likely voters were undecided about Owens. Twenty-seven percent viewed him favorably and 19 percent unfavorably.

Conservatives have tried to make the case that Owens and Scozzafava are too far to the left for the district, but the poll shows that's not entirely the case. A majority of likely district voters said they supported a health care overhaul that included a "public option" for government-provided insurance, something Democrats in Washington favor. And a plurality -- 48 percent -- say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to 43 percent who say it should be illegal in most or all cases. Owens and Scozzafava support abortion rights while Hoffman is opposed.

District voters are less enthusiastic about gay marriage, with 39 percent in favor and 53 opposed. Scozzafava has voted in favor of gay marriage in the state Assembly, while Owens and Hoffman do not support it.

CQ Politics currently rates the race a Tossup.

To follow the 2010 House races, check out the CQ Politics election map

-- Emily Cadei