Independent candidate Chris Daggett's support now reaches 20 percent when likely voters leaning one way or the other are included in the count, says a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll of the New Jersey governors race, conducted Oct. 15-20.
That is bad news for Republican Chris Christie, who trails incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine by 3 percent, within the plus or minus 4.1 percent margin of error. Neither major party candidate breaks 40 percent of the vote share -- Corzine leads 39 tpercent to 36 percent for Christie -- underscoring the dissatisfaction voters feel with both candidates and driving support to the third-party option.
Corzine still has negative approval ratings -- 70 percent of likely voters rate his job performance fair or poor -- and his support has not wavered much in the polls. But Christie has seen a drop in support since the summer, and part of the reason has been Daggett's rise. Among those voters who told the Rutgers-Eagleton poll they were backing the independent, 34 percent said they would vote for Christie if Daggett were not in the race; 28 percent would back Corzine; and 24 percent said they wouldn't vote.
Independent voters are now almost evenly split among the three candidates, with Christie earning 35 percent of support, Daggett at 31 percent and Corzine at 27 percent. Corzine has improved his standing among his party base, however, with 71 percent of Democrats now backing him, comparable to Christie's 75 percent support among Republicans. Corzine's rally with President Obama in Hackensack shouldn't hurt, either.
"When it comes to the issues that matter most to folks -- job creation and economic growth -- Jon's been a true leader," Obama declared to a crowd of supporters, urging them to get out the vote for Corzine on Nov. 3.
Christie's hope, and Daggett's challenge, is that voters won't actually show up and vote for the independent on Election Day.
"Overall, those voters who do know Daggett tend to like him, and those who like him support him at unprecedented levels for a New Jersey independent candidate," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton poll. "The question remains whether he can hold on to those voters without the kind of organized turnout operation that the two major parties have in place."
Another sign of trouble for Christie: those likely voters who told the poll that the state's most important problem is property taxes are evenly split between Corzine (36 percent) and Christie (34 percent), despite the Republican's focus on the issue in his appeal to voters.
CQ Politics currently rates the race a Tossup.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
-- Emily Cadei
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Comments
Corzine's negatives are as high as they are and Christie is in second place.
NJ Republican voters need to put their partisanship aside and vote for change, instead of wasting their votes on the failed Christie.
Posted by: Robert Chapman
| October 23, 2009 6:20 PM
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