New Jersey Governor's Race Tightens

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New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine is closing in on Republican challenger Chris Christie, a month out from the 2009 election, according to a new poll by Monmouth University-Gannett New Jersey conducted Sept. 24 to 29.

The tightening race adds further weight to the candidates' first debate, at 8 p.m. in Trenton, N.J.

The Monmouth-Gannett poll found that Christie now leads Corzine 43 percent to 40 percent, within the 4.3 percent margin of error. Independent Christopher Daggett snags 8 percent of the vote.

That echoes poll results from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday that showed Christie ahead of Corzine 43 percent to 39 percent.

Corzine trailed Christie 43 percent to 50 percent as recently as August, according to the Monmouth poll.

Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray credited Corzine's surge in part to the fact that Democratic voters have started paying attention.

Corzine has also made gains among likely independent voters, going from 24 percent in August to 28 percent in the latest survey. The rise is particularly notable among independent women, where the two candidates are now statistically tied, after Corzine trailed Christie by 28 percentage points in August.

As the Monmouth analysis noted, "independent women generally account for about 15% of all voters in non-presidential statewide races."

Christie's support among independents has dropped from 56 percent to 49 percent since August. Daggett takes 10 percent of the independent vote in the latest poll.

"The question now is whether Chris Christie can stave off any more erosion of the poll lead he has held consistently since February," Murray said.

Corzine continues to have net unfavorable ratings -- 49 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent, including a majority of independent voters, while 40 percent hold a favorable view.

Christie's unfavorable ratings have risen dramatically over the past several months, thanks to a barrage of negative advertisements from the Corzine campaign. Forty-one percent now say they view Christie favorably while 39 percent view him unfavorably. That contrasts with unfavorable ratings in the teens back in the spring.

Daggett remains a virtual unknown to New Jersey voters, 76 percent of whom don't have any opinion of him.

The top issues on the minds of New Jersey voters, and those that are likely to command significant attention in the debate, are all economic. Nearly half -- 48 percent -- of likely voters said the top issue they want to hear the candidates talk about is is property taxes. Coming in second at 22 percent was jobs.

Christie enjoys a strong lead on Corzine over who is perceived to have the best position on property taxes -- 46 percent of likely voters rank him better than issue, to 31 percent for Corzine. Christie has a narrower edge on jobs, 41 to 39 percent.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

-- Emily Cadei

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