Republican officials who oppose most of President Obama's policy agenda often refer to poll numbers that show doubt or outright opposition among many voters toward the administration's economic policies. So it might seem that Republicans who favor a major increase of the American military forces in Afghanistan are getting ahead of public opinion, in light of a new Quinnipiac University survey conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 5.
The survey found that fewer than two-fifths of respondents favor a troop increase.
A look below the top-line numbers shows, however, that GOP leaders are voicing a majority opinion within their own party's base on Afghanistan, as on other contentious issues.
The large sample national survey of 2,630 registered voters - conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 5 and carrying statistical margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points - showed that 38 percent of the whole sample believes the number of U.S. troops committed to fighting extremist elements in Afghanistan should be increased. Another 28 percent said the troop strength should be decreased, and 21 percent said it should be kept the same. The remaining 13 percent said they did not know or did not answer the question.
But support for a troop increase was much stronger among the sub-group of Republican voters. More than half -- 54 percent -- favored a troop increase, to 14 percent who said troops should be withdrawn and 19 percent who said troop levels should remain the same.
Only 24 percent of Democrats, by contrast, favored a troop increase, while 37 percent said troop levels should be reduced and 26 percent said they should stay the same. Independent voters came down in the middle, but a plurality of 40 percent favored a troop increase, while 28 percent said there should be fewer U.S. troops and 19 percent said the numbers should be kept as they are now.
The numbers in the poll reinforce the widely held perception that Obama, if he should decide to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan, will have to rely heavily on the support of Republican lawmakers and voters who generally are strongly opposed to his policy initiatives.
"The guy at the White House who is in charge of coalition building has his work cut out for him," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, told a news conference at the National Press Club.
The partisan split on Afghanistan is present in most of the questions asked by the pollsters. Overall, 52 percent of all respondents said the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, to 37 percent who say the nation should not be involved. The Republican split was 72 percent pro-involvement to 21 percent against; among independents, the split was 56 percent for and 35 percent against; and among Democrats, there was a plurality in opposition, with 38 percent for and 49 percent against.
When Quinnipiac asked more specifically whether "eliminating the threat from terrorism operating from Afghanistan is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for," 65 percent of all respondents said yes, including majorities in all three partisan sub-groups. But the numbers were much more overwhelming for Republicans (80 percent) and independents (67 percent) than for Democrats (53 percent).
The overall sample was not optimistic about whether a troop increase would "make the United States safer from terrorism," with 40 percent saying yes and 51 percent saying no. Here again, Republicans were more bullish on the outcome of a robust U.S. military presence. Republican respondents broke down 58 percent yes and 33 percent no on the question, to 26-65 among Democrats and 41-49 among independents.
A plurality of respondents said they approve of Obama's handling of foreign policy in general, with 49 percent stating a favorable opinion to 37 percent disapproving and 13 percent saying they don't know or not answering. The partisan split on this question followed more typical party lines, with independents splitting nearly down the middle. Among Democrats, 72 percent said they approved of Obama's foreign policy performance while 11 percent disapproved; among Republicans, it was 25 percent approve and 66 percent disapprove; and among independents, 46 percent approved while 42 percent disapproved.
-- Bob Benenson
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