The outlook for Republicans in the New York governor's race hinges almost entirely on whether the party can lure former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani into the race, according to a poll conducted Oct. 14-18 by Siena College's Research Institute.
Giuliani's standing has risen among New York registered voters, the poll finds, with a 60 percent approval rating, near his 63 percent all-time high in the Siena poll. Giuliani now trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo -- the Democrats' favored candidate -- by 7 percentage points, 43 to 50 percent, after several months of lagging in the double-digits.
And Giuliani would crush incumbent Democrat David A. Paterson by more than 20 percent, 56 to 33 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percent.
That stands in stark contrast to the polling performance by the GOP's one declared candidate, former Rep. Rick Lazio, who trails well behind Cuomo, 21 percent to 66 percent, and even lags behind the unpopular Paterson, 39 percent to 37. And Lazio has a net unfavorable rating -- 27 percent with 23 percent who view him favorably. Fifty percent of voters have no opinion of him.
But Lazio is starting to rally GOP support, nabbing the endorsement of new Suffolk County Republican party chair John Jay LaValle on Tuesday.
Paterson's favorable rating is even more dismal, with 61 percent holding an unfavorable view of the governor to 27 percent who have a favorable opinion. His job approval rating is also stuck in the basement. Nineteen percent rate it excellent or good and 79 percent rate it fair or poor.
Paterson's latest attempt to balance the state budget, which includes cuts to education and health care spending, doesn't help. A majority of voters -- 56 percent -- said such a move would make them less likely to vote for Paterson, though 53 percent said they would be more likely to support him if he doesn't raise taxes as part of the budget, something Paterson is also shooting for.
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democratic senator Paterson appointed, has also been struggling to make headway with the New York electorate. Gillibrand, who filled Hillary Clinton's seat when the latter moved to the State Department in January, has been working to introduce herself to statewide voters, but so far it seems to be having the opposite effect. Her favorable rating has dropped to 28 percent, from a high of 34 percent in February, while her unfavorable rating has risen 26 percent from a low of 20 in February and in August.
Forty-six percent of New York voters still have no opinion of their junior senator, which aides say will change once the 2010 campaign gets underway.
Republicans are hoping former GOP Gov. George Pataki challenges Gillibrand, but he would not be a shoo-in for the seat. Pataki leads the freshman Democrat 46 percent to 41 percent in a hypothetical match-up, the Siena poll shows. Giuliani would fare better -- topping Gillibrand 53 percent to 36 percent -- but he is unlikely to mount a Senate campaign.
CQ Politics rates the general election for Senate Likely Democratic and for governor Leans Democratic.
To see how the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics' election map.
To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.
-- Emily Cadei
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Comments
Rudy has the experience and charisma - Cuomo has a name.
Posted by: dante805
| October 21, 2009 7:44 AM
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