New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has taken a statistically significant lead over Republican Chris Christie, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 20 to 26.
The poll found that the Democratic governor was favored by 43 percent of likely voters, compared with 38 percent who favored his GOP challenger. The margin of error was 2.8 percent.
Christie, a former U.S. attorney, led Corzine all summer, but was in a virtual tie -- 41 to 40 percent -- in Quinnipiac's last poll released Oct. 14. Independent Chris Daggett's support among likely voters seems locked in the low teens --13 percent of respondents said they would vote for him, a drop of one percent from the poll two weeks ago.
The Quinnipiac findings are at odds with a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday, which showed Daggett now drawing more voters from Corzine than Christie. In the Quinnipiac poll, 43 percent of likely Daggett voters said Christie was their second choice, while 27 percent would chose Corzine second.
While 81 percent of likely voters overall said their minds are now made up, a much lower proportion -- 60 percent -- of Daggett backers are certain of their vote. Thirty-eight percent said they may still change their mind.
And 68 percent of likely voters surveyed think Daggett has no chance of winning. Though that is an improvement over two weeks ago, when 77 percent thought he had no shot, it could still dampen turn-out for him since voters tend to not vote for third party candidates if they think they are throwing their vote away.
Corzine looks stronger on a number of measure than he has in some time, the Quinnipiac poll found. The incumbent's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio, while still negative, has improved greatly since July, with his favorable rating rising to a new high of 41 percent. In contrast, Christie's unfavorable rating hit a high of 42 percent, compared to 37 percent who view the Republican favorably.
A narrow plurality of respondents also now say Corzine is trustworthy and honest, 46 to 44 percent. Christie ratings on honesty have sunk -- 37 percent to 39 percent who do not think he is honest and trustworthy.
One point of attack does seem to be working for Christie -- 60 percent of voters think property taxes will go up under Corzine, while just 2 percent think they will go down and 34 percent think they will stay the same. A plurality -- 44 percent -- think property taxes will stay about the same if Christie is elected. New Jersey has some of the highest property taxes in the country and Christie has focused much of his campaign on residents' tax concerns.
CQ Politics currently rates the race a [Tossup.}(http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=governor-2009-NJ)
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