Poll Tracker

Voters were more or less split on whether Paterson had stepped up his job performance recently: 42 percent reported that he is doing a better job now than six months ago and 47 percent said he wasn't.

The Siena poll echoes earlier surveys, finding that Paterson would lose badly to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a Democratic primary and to Republican Rudy Giuliani in a general election contest.

But the Democratic brand remains powerful in New York and even given his negative job ratings, Paterson has managed to close the gap with Giuliani from a 30 percent spread in June to 17 percent in September -- 35 percent to 52 percent. And Paterson leads former Rep. Rick Lazio, who formally launched his campaign Tuesday, 39 percent to 35 percent, which just exceeds the 3.5 percent margin of error.

If such trends continue, it could undermine the assessment by national Democratic leaders that Paterson can't win a general election.

Giuliani has yet to make a decision on the race, and the Siena poll confirms he would give the GOP a serious shot at taking back the seat, which it last held under George Pataki from 1995 through 2006. Cuomo, however, continues to lead Giuliani by double digits, 52 percent to 39 percent. A majority of voters have a favorable opinion of Giuliani and think he should run for one of the state's top posts -- either governor or senator -- next year. But a sizable minority -- 45 percent -- do not want Giuliani running for anything. That includes 60 percent of Democrats, 19 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independents.

Lazio has a ways to go win over voters of all stripes. Fifty-three percent, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents, have no opinion of him. Just 22 percent of voters held a favorable view.

Lazio, the 2006 GOP nominee for Senate, has made state government reform the key plank for his campaign early on. And while it is a key concern for voters -- 23 percent told Siena it was the most important issue in the 2010 governor's campaign -- jobs are easily the top issue for voters.

In the Senate race, Paterson appointee Kirsten Gillibrand voter outreach efforts seem to be having the opposite of the desired effect. Siena found her favorable ratings have sunk since May while her unfavorable ratings reached a new high of 24 percent. Nearly half --47 percent -- of voters still say they have no opinion of their junior senator, who replaced Hillary Rodham Clinton in January.

CQ Politics rates the general election contest Leans Democratic.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.