Steady -- But Small -- McDonnell Leads in Virginia Race

September 29, 2009 11:22 AM | | Comments (0)

Virginia Republican Bob McDonnell continues to narrowly lead Democrat Creigh Deeds in the state's Nov. 3 contest for governor, aided by near-unanimous support among Republicans and an advantage among among political independents -- according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 25-28.

The poll of 576 likely voters gave McDonnell 48 percent and Deeds 43 percent. That result conforms with other recent surveys showing McDonnell, a former state legislator and Attorney General, with a lead that is narrower than the advantage he held over Deeds in the summer.

McDonnell holds a 14 percentage-point lead over Deeds among the crucial swing-voting constitutuency of political independents polled by PPP: 51 percent to 37 percent. That is despite the fact that the two candidates have nearly identical favorability ratings, with McDonnell is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent, and Deeds seen favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent.

The enthusiasm of self-described Republicans for McDonnell, which exceeds support for Deeds among self-described Democrats, is another important factor in the GOP nominee's lead. Deeds is winning 82 percent of Democrats, while McDonnell is winning 96 percent of self-identified Republicans. Among undecided voters, who made up 8 percent of the poll's sample, are a disproportionate amount of self-described Democrats.

Four in five voters say their are either very familiar or somewhat familiar with McDonnell's controversial 1989 graduate thesis, with 59 percent saying that it will make no difference in their Nov. 3 vote and 34 percent saying it makes them less likely to vote for McDonnell.

CQ Politics at the moment rates the Virginia governor's race as Leans Republican.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

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Categories: Governor, Public Policy Polling

Tags: Deeds, Governor, McDonnell, Virginia

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