Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge is within single digits of Republican Sen. Richard M. Burr in a hypothetical matchup for the 2010 North Carolina Senate race, according to a new survey by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling conducted Sept. 2 through 8.
Etheridge -- who is not currently a Senate candidate but is reconsidering his earlier decision not to challenge Burr -- trailed the first-term incumbent by 34 percent to 41 percent with a quarter of voters undecided.
And among the Democrats matched up against Burr in the survey, Etheridge was the only one who led among self-identified moderate voters, a constituency that could very well decide who wins the election.
Etheridge, the centrist seven-term representative of the 2nd District in central North Carolina, is viewed by many Democratic insiders as their strongest potential challenger to Burr. But Etheridge's seniority has earned him a coveted seat on the influential House Ways and Means Committee, and he has admitted it would be tough to walk away from that.
The poll was concluded a day before North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall -- who trailed Burr by 31 percent to 42 percent with 27 percent unsure -- filed the paperwork making her bid for the Democratic Senate nomination official.
Marshall, too, has supporters who say she could give Burr a tough fight, citing her record of success in statewide elections and her status as the only woman currently considered a top-tier contender. The 2008 Senate race in North Carolina was a matchup between two women, with Democrat Kay Hagen scoring a upset over Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.
The polls showed Burr topping attorney Ken Lewis, the other Democrat officially in the race, 43 percent to 27 percent. And Burr led prospective Democratic candidates Cal Cunningham, a former state senator, 42 percent to 30 percent; Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy 43 percent to 29 percent; and former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker 42 to 31 percent.
Although he led all comers, the troubling aspect of the poll for Burr is that he does not break 45 percent in any of these match-ups, even against his lesser-known opponents. And Burr's approval ratings are stuck at 38 percent, while 32 percent disapprove of his job performance and 29 percent are unsure, nearly five full years into his term, showing that his persistently low profile among state voters remains an issue.
Voters across the political spectrum remain unsure about Burr - 31 percent of both liberals and moderates and 28 percent of conservatives said they do not know enough about the senator to rate his performance.
CQ Politics currently rates the race as Tossup.
To see how the 2010 Senate races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics' election map.
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