Garamendi Leads in California's Open 10th District

August 13, 2009 12:25 PM | | Comments (2)

Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leads his closest Democratic competitor by 11 percentage points in the crowded field for California’s 10th District special election, according to an Aug. 10-11 SurveyUSA poll of registered voters.

A total of 14 — five Democrats, six Republicans and three third-party candidates — qualified for the Sept. 1 election and will appear on the ballot to choose a successor to Democrat Ellen O. Tauscher, who resigned her seat to serve as undersecretary of State for arms control and international security.

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Garamendi led the SurveyUSA poll with 26 percent, Democratic state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier received 15 percent, Democratic state Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan received 12 percent, Iraq War veteran Anthony Woods, a Democrat, received 5 percent.

Republican businessman David Harmer received 18 percent.

If no single candidate receives a majority of the vote Sept. 1 (a nearly certain scenario given the number of candidates on the ballot,) the top vote-getter from each party will advance to a second round vote Nov. 3. But a Democrat is favored to win election to the seat, which makes the top Democrat in the Sept. 1 race the most likely candidate to win in November.

As a statewide officeholder, Garamendi entered the race with high name recognition, but as SurveyUSA notes in its analysis, their poll is no guarantee of Garamendi’s sucess. “Because turnout in a stand-alone special primary election is difficult to predict, each of these three Democrats has a chance to advance,” stated SurveyUSA.

CQ Politics rates the race Safe Democratic.

To follow all House races, check out the CQ Politics election map

— Rachel Kapochunas

More from CQ Politics

Categories: House, SurveyUSA

Tags: Buchanan, California, DeSaulnier, Garamendi, Harmer, Woods

    Comments

  1. As a constituent in this district, I have seen, so far, quite a few Garamendi ads together with mailings from organized labor, who've endorsed him. I've seen one or two ads from DeSaulnier and absolutely nothing from Buchanan. She (Buchanan) must be having a hard time raising money for this race because last year she was all over the TV and mailboxes during her successful takeover of an open GOP assembly seat. DeSaulnier (a former Republican who switched because of the Clinton Impeachment)
    thought he would ease into this seat because of Tauscher's initial endorsement. Didn't work out that way. In fact, there's a good chance he will come in 3rd among Dems. There would have to be a political earthquake for the GOP to win this seat as it is drawn today.

    Posted by: NObama Author Profile Page | August 13, 2009 6:42 PM

  2. This seat was once held by ultra conservative Republican Bill Baker, and now the GOP has little or no chance to win. This, however, is owed more to gerrymandering than to any overwhelming support for the Democrats.

    Posted by: mag_amberson Author Profile Page | August 13, 2009 11:49 PM

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