July 2009 Archives

Despite the birthers' best efforts, Americans believe by 77 percent to 11 percent that President Obama was, in fact, born in the U.S., according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted July 27-30. Twelve percent were not sure.

The group of biggest doubters were Republicans who agreed that Obama was U.S.-born by a lesser 42 percent to 28 percent with 30 percent not sure. Independents acknowledged Obama's native birth by 83 percent and Democrats by 93 percent.

Regionally, the part of the country with the most doubts was the South where 47 percent said Obama was native-born while 23 percent said he was not and 30 percent were unsure. Americans in all other regions said Obama was native-born by 87 percent or more.

Alaska's new Republican governor, Sean Parnell, begins his tenure to fill out the term of Sarah Palin with higher approval ratings than his predecessor, according to a Hays Research Group poll conducted July 29-30.

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The survey found that 66.5 percent of respondents said they "feel positive" about Parnell and just 7.8 percent of respondents have a negative opinion. An additional 18 percent expressed no opinion and 7.8 percent responded that they didn't know Parnell.

Palin, the GOP vice presidential nominee in 2008, triggered positive ratings from 46.8 percent of those surveyed; a negative rating from 47.5 percent and, from 4.5 percent of the Alaskans polled, no opinion of Palin at all.

President Obama's job approval rating has suffered a sharp decline as have the marks Americans give him for his handling of major issues, particularly the economy and the federal budget deficit, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted July 22-26. He also took a hit for his handling of the Henry Louis Gates controversy,

Obama's approval-to-disapproval numbers for overall performance dropped from 61 percent last month to 54 percent in July. Taken together with a rise in those disapproving the job he's doing, that amounts to an 11 point turn to the negative.

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Forty-six percent of Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the issue of health care reform compared to 41 percent who give him positive marks, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted July 24-27. Thirteen percent are undecided. That compares to the 52 percent to 40 percent disapproval of former President Clinton's push for an overhaul in 1994.

Forty-two percent say the plan Obama is pushing is a bad idea, 36 percent say it is a good idea and 17 percent have no opinion. That compares to June when 32 percent said it was a bad idea, 33 percent labeled it a good idea and 30 percent had no opinion.

Thirty-nine percent believe that under Obama's plan their health care will get worse, 29 percent say it will stay the same and 21 percent say it will get better. In April, 24 percent said it would get worse, 29 percent said it would stay the same and 22 percent said it would get better

While most Americans believe that the nation's health care system needs fundamental changes or to be completely rebuilt, 59 percent of registered voters believe that the legislation now moving through Congress will not benefit them personally compared to 31 percent who think it will, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll conducted July 24-28.

Fifty-nine percent say from what they've read or heard of the legislation that it will increase costs for most Americans while 16 percent say it will have no effect and 15 percent believe it will reduce costs.

Three-quarters of those polled say they are very or somewhat concerned that a government plan to provide health care for all Americans will raise their taxes and about the same number worry that the cost of their own health care will go up. Sixty-nine percent believe that if the government creates a system of providing health care for all Americans, the quality of their own health care will get worse, compared to 53 percent who said so in June. Sixty-two percent worried that an overhaul would require them to change doctors compared to 53 percent in June

In this year's race for Virginia governor, a new survey says Republican Bob McDonnell has opened up a double-digit lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds.

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A SurveyUSA poll conducted July 27-28 has McDonnell, a former state Attorney General, with 55 percent support from likely voters. Deeds, a state senator, has 40 percent of the vote.

The poll was taken after McDonnell and Deeds held their first debate last Saturday.

It seems like this is the day for everybody to release a poll doing a Republican vs. Democrats generic match-up for the 2010 congressional elections, and [Gallup] is no exception, reporting that Democrats outpoll Republicans by 50 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided. The survey was conducted July 10-12.

An NPR poll conducted July 22-26 had Democrats and Republicans (including leaners) tied at 43 percent each, and a George Washington University Battleground poll conducted July 19-23 had the Democrats ahead 43 percent to 40 percent, a lead that was within the margin of error.

Gallup polled registered voters and the other two surveyed likely voters.

Americans are worried over what the health care overhaul planned by President Obama and congressional Democrats may bring, with 62 percent saying it likely will raise costs in the long run, 65 percent believing the health care system will become more complicated and 56 percent concerned it will limit choice of doctors and hospitals, according to a Time Magazine poll conducted July 27-28.

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But showing the split-personality of the public when it comes to what reform will mean for the country and what it will mean to them personally, 63 percent support providing coverage for all Americans as Obama has outlined, 56 percent backed a public option to compete with private insurers, and 57 percent supported raising taxes on those making over $280,000-a-year to pay for the plan. Forty-six percent called it "very important" that legislation to change the system be passed in the next few months.

Americans split at 46 percent each over whether they approved Obama's handling of the issue, but they trust Obama over congressional Republicans on health care by 47 percent to 32 percent.

President Obama is facing some ominous signs on the key issues of the economy and health care with voters demonstrating some strong skepticism about his handling of both those issues, according to a survey conducted for National Public Radio July 22-26.

However, another poll out today from George Washington University (read our post about it here) indicates that while Obama may be losing some ground, voters still favor him and his policies, along with those of congressional Democrats, more than those of the Republican opposition when measured by favorability and approval numbers and who is trusted more on a range of issues

Forty-eight 48 percent of voters said his economic policies have run up a record deficit while failing to end the recession or slow job losses while 45 percent said Obama had helped avert an even worse crisis and was building the foundation for recovery.

Still, 56 percent hold former President Bush responsible for the current state of the economy while 32 percent say the burden of responsibility has passed to Obama.

Underlining the divide found in most polls between Americans' support for a health care overhaul versus how they see change affecting them personally, a Gallup poll conducted July 24-25 finds that 44 percent say reforming the system will improve medical care in the U.S. while a plurality - 34 percent - believe it will worsen their own care.

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Thirty-four percent believe an overhaul will worsen medical care overall for the country. As for how Americans think it will affect their own care, measured against the 34 percent who believe it will make it worse, 29 percent say it will mean no change and 26 percent believe it will improve their care.

The public believes by 47 percent to 29 percent that an overhaul will expand access to health care with 13 percent expecting no change. But when asked how reform would affect their personal access to health care, 39 percent say there will be no change, 29 percent believe it will reduce their access and 21 percent say it will expand it.

While President Obama's overall job approval numbers have slipped, voters still favor him and his policies, along with those of congressional Democrats, more than those of the Republican opposition when measured by favorability and approval numbers and who is trusted more on a range of issues, according to a George Washington University "Battleground" poll conducted July 19-23.

Reflecting findings of other polls, 48 percent viewed congressional Republicans unfavorably while 37 percent saw them in a positive light. Democrats were seen favorably by a bare 45 percent to 44 percent ratio. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent (including 43 percent who see her "very" unfavorably) while 32 percent see her positively, indicating that she has become a polarizing figure. The numbers on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are not very significant since 38 percent never heard of him and 16 percent had no opinion. Only 7 percent never heard of Pelosi.

In the wake of last week's corruption scandal in New Jersey, a Public Policy Polling survey shows Republican challenger Chris Christie has meanwhile expanded his lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

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Christie, a former U.S. Attorney, leads Corzine 50 percent to 36 percent with 14 percent undecided in a survey of New Jersey voters conducted July 24-27. The poll's margin of error is 3 percentage points. Christie's lead is up from PPP's June survey, which showed Christie leading Corzine 51 percent to 41 percent with 9 percent undecided.

On July 23, 44 people, many of them Democratic lawmakers, were charged with corruption-related offenses in New Jersey. The poll gives no indication that the scandal has impacted voters' opinions, but the PPP survey is the first major independent poll released since the incident.

Voters are roughly split on whether they support or oppose the proposed health care overhaul being pushed by Democrats but the biggest chunk among them are the 41 percent who put themselves in the "strongly oppose" category, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 26-27.

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Overall, those polled don't like what they know about the proposed overhaul by 49 percent to 47 percent, with a 3 point margin of error. Among those, 25 percent strongly favor a change, 22 percent are "somewhat" in support and the negatives are the 41 percent "strongly" opposed and 8 percent somewhat opposed.

Fifty percent believe the quality of health care will get worse under an overhaul, 23 percent say it will get better and 23 percent expect it to be about the same. Fifty-three percent believe costs will go up, 23 percent say costs will go down and 18 percent say they will remain the same.

Three Republicans are bunched within five points of each when potential GOP presidential candidates are matched up for 2012 with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney barely on top, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted July 21-22. The margin of error for the part of the survey dealing only with Republican voters is 6 points.

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Romney leads with 22 percent, followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 21 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 17 percent. Former New York City mayor (we're dealing with a lot of "formers" here) Rudi Giuliani polls 13 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 9 percent and by the time we get to an elected official, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, he scrapes together 3 percent. Ten percent say it's too soon to decide.

Other recent polls have varied on the 2012 results. A Washington Post/ABC News survey conducted in mid-July had Huckabee on top while a July 10-12 Gallup poll favored Romney. Several recent polls made clear that voters overall don't want to see Palin as president.

While almost half of Americans believe they have a good understanding of the issues involved in proposals to overhaul the health care system, two-thirds do not believe the same about the lawmakers who will vote on them, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 26.

Would you say that you/members of Congress have a good understanding of the issues involved in the current debate over national health care reform, or not?

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Fifty-eight percent of Republicans say they personally have a good understanding of the issues but only 20 percent believe that's true of Congress. Forty-seven percent of Democrats regard themselves as knowledgeable on health care with 34 percent saying they believe Congress understands the issues too. Forty-one percent of independents say they know the issues, but only 26 percent say Congress does.

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Joseph Biden (Getty Images/AFP/Vano Shlamov)

Vice President Joe Biden has the approval of a majority of the public according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll.

While Biden's above-the-midpoint score is far greater than Vice President Dick Cheney's approval ratings at the end of the Bush administration, it's not too far from where Cheney ranked early in Bush's first term.

Biden's approval/disapproval score is 55 percent to 33 percent, with 12 percent undecided. The poles of the poll, those who strongly approve or strongly disapprove of Biden are nearly even, with 20 percent choosing the former and 21 percent the latter. Where Biden wins is in the middle: 36 percent say they somewhat approve of the way he is handling his job while only 12 percent say they somewhat disapprove.

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Jan Brewer

Count Arizona Republican Jan Brewer among the country's governors whose popularity has been hampered by her state's budget crisis. A new Rasmussen poll conducted July 21 shows that likely voters are now split on the job performance of Brewer, who succeeded Democrat Janet Napolitano as governor in January when Napolitano became Secretary of Homeland Security. Forty-eight percent strongly or somewhat approve of Brewer's job performance, while another 48 percent strong or somewhat disapprove.

That's a drop from the 51 percent approval rating she enjoyed in May. Moreover, the majority of respondents - 72 percent - rated Brewer's handling of the state's budget crisis as fair or poor. Just 25 percent said it was good or excellent.

This run-up year to Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick's re-election campaign has been rough on the Democratic incumbent, as his struggles with the state's recession-plagued economy and other issues have hurt his standing with state votes. And the latest Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Monday was just more bad news, as his job approval ratings hit a new low point.

Just 35 percent of the respondents said they approve of the job Patrick is doing, while 56 percent disapprove.

One of the major sources of Patrick's growing unpopularity, the Globe noted, is his perceived failure to reform state government, as he promised in his 2006 campaign. Sixty-two percent of respondents said Patrick has not brought reform to the state, while just 25 percent believe he has.

A majority of Americans favor confirming Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, according to a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamic Poll conducted July 21-22. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said they would vote to confirm Sotomayor, up from 46 percent in an early June survey.

As in the Senate, Sotomayor fared better with Democrats -- 72 percent of whom favored confirmation -- compared to Republicans, only 29 percent said they would vote yes. An even higher proportion -- 62 percent -- agreed that Sotomayor and other recent nominees, "say what they have to for confirmation" rather than "answer the questions honestly."

Nevertheless, Sotomayor's overall favorability increased to 41 percent, compared to 36 percent in June, though 15 percent of those surveyed say they have never heard of her. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three points.

While 41 percent of Americans want to see a health care overhaul law passed by year's end, another 30 percent support it but say it doesn't have to happen this year and another 24 percent don't want such a measure passed at all, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 23.

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want to see a law passed this year as do a plurality (37 percent) of independents. Thirty-three percent of independents support passage but say it doesn't have to happen this year and 23 percent are against passing any law at all. Forty-nine percent of Republicans are opposed to any overhaul at all, 28 percent favor passing a law but without a deadline of this year, and 22 percent want to see a law passed this year.

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Carly Fiorina (Getty Images/Alex Wong)

Former corporate executive Carly Fiorina, a Republican, runs a surprisingly close race against three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer in a 2010 California match-up, trailing her by only 45 percent to 41 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 22. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

Boxer's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent unsure, and the lesser-known Fiorina is seen unfavorably by 35 percent, favorably by 30 percent but has 35 percent of voters who don't know enough about her to be sure.

While incumbents polling below 50 percent are viewed as vulnerable, Rasmussen says "a Democrat running in a heavily Democratic state like California is often able to overcome weak poll numbers."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the pack of potential GOP presidential contenders for 2012, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll of self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaners conducted July 15-18. The margin of error is 3 points.

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Fifty-three percent view Sarah Palin unfavorably. (Getty Images/Michael Nagle)

He is followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 21 percent, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 19 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 10 percent. Everyone else polls less than "no opinion" which got 6 percent, including Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, about him there has been speculation as a contender for 2012. He got 1 percent.

President Obama's approval-to-disapproval numbers have dropped to 54 percent to 38 percent, down from 62 percent to 31 percent in early June, and voters disapprove of how he's handling health care by 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted July 21-22. The margin of error is 3 points.

One factor in the erosion of Obama's marks is that independents now approve of his performance by a 54 percent to 36 percent ratio, a significant falloff from the 66 percent to 26 percent he enjoyed in June.

Voters are split, 49 percent to 48 percent, on whether they want Congress to pass a major health care overhaul this year. Fifty-one percent don't think the Obama administration has a clear plan for health care. Asked whether they favored or opposed the package being put together on Capitol Hill based on what they know, voters oppose it 47 percent to 36 percent.

Criticisms of the Democrats' proposals to overhaul the nation's health care system are gaining some traction, according to a poll conducted July 7-14 by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

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However, 56 percent of those responding to Kaiser's poll say revamping the system now is "more important than ever."

rcent of the Americans surveyed wereare worried that Congress will pass a bill that will leave their families worse off than now. That feeling is strongest among Republicans -- 67 percent -- but 45 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents are also expressed that worry.

The image of the U.S. around the world has improved markedly since Barack Obama replaced George Bush, surveyed by the Pew Research Center between May 18 and June 16.

The biggest jump in favorable views of the U.S. has been in western Europe with improvements also in key countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. There were some signs of improvement in Muslim countries but the view of Muslims in the Mideast remain unfavorable.

A plurality of Americans say that the Obama administration's economic stimulus plans has had no effect on the economy while nearly-two thirds say it has had no effect on their family's financial situation although they are more optimistic about the long-term impact, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 17-19.

Up until now, do you think Obama's economic stimulus plan has made the economy or your financial situation better, worse, or had no effect?

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Connecticut Sen. Christopher J. Dodd continues to trail former Rep. Rob Simmons in a hypothetical 2010 match-up, but his approval ratings continued to inch up in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 18 through 20

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Simmons leas Dodd 48 percent to 39 percent in that survey. That's an improvement for Simmons, who lead Dodd 45 percent to 39 percent in a May Quinnipiac poll.

The poll found Dodd with just a slight lead on state Sen. Sam Caligiuri in a general election match-up, 42 percent to 40 percent, and tied with businessman and former Ireland ambassador Tom Foley, at 42 percent. Dodd lead investor Peter Schiff 43 percent to 38 percent.

Connecticut voters are beginning to lose patience with Gov. Jodi Rell, whose approval ratings have declined, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 16-20.

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Jodi Rell (Getty Images/Neilson Barnard)

Like other Northeastern states, Connecticut has faced budget problems. Although having lost some support, Rell's approval rating still stands at 65 percent -- a decline from 73 percent in May.

But the poll found that voters are not as frustrated with the governor as they are with the legislature, where the job disapproval level polled at 45 percent.

Despite changing parties to boost his re-election prospects, Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., is in a statistical tie with his likely Republican opponent, former Rep. Patrick Toomey, who ran unsuccessfully against Specter in 2004, according to a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.survey conducted July 14-19.

"Specter's 20-point lead over former Congressman Pat Toomey less than three months ago has virtually vanished," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The poll shows Specter with 45 percent and Toomey with 44 percent, well inside the margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points

Americans now disapprove over the way President Obama is handling the proposed overhaul of health care by 50 percent to 44 percent, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 17-19.

You can see the partisan divide on this issue from the chart with 74 percent of Democrats approving, 86 percent of Republicans disapproving and 55 percent of independents disapproving.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy? health21a.gif health21b.gif

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David Vitter (CQ/Scott J. Ferrell)

Louisiana's first term Republican Sen. David Vitter gets mixed marks when it comes to how vulnerable he will be in 2010 with a minority of voters saying he should get a second term but he leads when pitted against a generic Democratic opponent and one real one, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-19.

Vitter, of course, is the senator who was embarrassed last year when it was revealed his phone number was found in the records of the escort service run by the woman known as the "D.C. Madam."

Public trust in President Obama has dropped from 66 percent to 31 percent margin in March to a 54 percent to 42 percent ratio, according to a Politico/Public Strategies poll conducted July 9-12.

Democrats as a party took a similar hit: from a positive trust ratio of 54 percent to 41 percent in March to 43 percent who trust the Democrats and 53 percent who do not. Thirty-seven percent trust the Republicans and 57 percent do not compared to 41 percent who trusted the GOP in March and 54 percent who did not.

Pennsylvania's second-term Gov. Edward Rendell joins the club of Northeast and Midwestern Democratic governors who are looking at their numbers nosedive, largely because of their states' economic woes. And that may have reverberations in 2010 when it comes to who succeeds Rendell.

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Rendell's job approval rating has sunk to 53 percentage negative and 39 percent positive a reversal since May when 54 percent approved of his performance and 37 percent disapproved, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 14-19.

After hitting rock bottom in May, New York Gov. David A. Paterson's favorability ratings continue to inch up. The Democrat, who is up for election in 2010, was rated favorably by 36 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 56 percent, in a new poll from Siena Research Institute, conducted July 13 through 16, . That's an increase from 31 percent favorability in June 2009 and 27 percent in May.

Paterson does not appear to have been hurt by the chaos consuming the state legislature, which was deadlocked by a leadership struggle over the past month. In fact, 64 percent of voters surveyed gave Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate fight.

Even so, 69 percent of respondents said they would prefer to elect someone else in 2010, while just 17 percent said they would vote for him.

On the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing President Obama's approval ratings slipping on front-burner issues, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 15-16 saw his overall job approval rating drop from 50 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided. (The Post/ABC poll still had Obama's overall rating at 59 percent to 37 percent).

Obama's rating in PPP polls had been 55 percent in May and 52 percent in June.

The poll did hypothetical match-ups with Obama pitted against four Republicans for 2012. Obama bested all of them in the PPP survey, but a Rasmussen Reports poll had less favorable news for Obama.

President Obama's approval ratings have declined some more, both overall and on his front-burner issues, according to an ABC News-Washington Post poll conducted July 15-18. The margin of error is 3 points.

Obama's overall approval rating has declined by 6 percentage points in the last month, but even with that loss, it still stands at 59 percent, while 37 percent say they disapprove.

On health care, Obama's approval rating has dropped 8 percentage points, from 57 percent to 49 percent, since April as legislation to overhaul the nation's health insurance system began taking shape, The Post reported. At the same time, overall disapproval of his handling of health care has risen to 44 percent from 29 percent. Among independents, 49 percent disapprove of his plans to alter the health care system, while 44 percent approve.

More Nevada voters disapprove of Sen. John Ensign, R-NV, but a majority of them still do not want him to resign in the wake of a scandal over his extramarital affair with a campaign staffer, according to a Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Ensign, who was re-elected to his Senate seat in 2006, admitted to the affair and later fired his mistress and her husband, who was chief of staff for his Senate office. He also acknowledged that his parents paid $96,000 to the family of his mistress.

That has not rested well with the state's voters, just 31 percent of whom say they have a favorable view of the senator, a drop of 22 percentage points from before the affair was revealed in mid June and eight points lower than a month ago.

Now that Americans are getting to see a bit more of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, they seem to like her a bit more.

A Rasmussen Reports survey is finding an upward trend for her over the course of her confirmation hearings this week, with a plurality of voters now favoring her confirmation to the post.

Sotomayor, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit, is favored for confirmation to the Supreme Court by 44 percent of voters, according Rasmussen's daily tracking poll.

Former New York City Mayor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani could make a race out of the 2010 governor's contest, if early polling is any indication.

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Rudy Giuliani (MLB Photos via Getty Images/Jessica Foster)

A Rasmussen poll of likely voters conducted July 14 showed that not only is Giuliani leading unpopular Democratic incumbent David A. Paterson by more than 20 percentage points, but he's also within single digits of highly popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.

In a hypothetical match-up, Cuomo, a Democrat, leads Giuliani 48 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent supporting another candidate and 6 percent unsure.

One question that most of the major pollsters have asked Americans - including in a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll - is whether the public thinks the most important goal of a health care overhaul is to extend insurance to all who lack it or reduce health care costs.

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The Ipsos/McClatchy poll, conducted July 9-13, finds Americans split: 46 percent say extend coverage and 44 percent say rein in costs. Other polls have produced results all over the lot on this question: a New York Times/CBS News poll and Pew Research Center survey in June found big majorities for expanding coverage. Diageo/Hotline, USA Today/Gallup and Quinnipiac had pluralities or majorities in favor of cutting costs.

That has prompted some insightful analysis by Mark Blumental at Pollster.com and Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, writing in The Hill. Both worth reading.

First-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr, who is no fan of Public Policy Polling's results when it comes to his political outlook, does a little better in PPP's latest survey with his approval-to-disapproval ratio up to 36 percent to 29 percent, a net improvement of 8 points since last month.

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Last month, Burr trailed a generic Democratic candidate 41 percent to 38 percent, but now leads by 40 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll conducted July 10-12.

This time, PPP tested Burr against two potential Democratic challengers, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham and veteran political operative Kenneth Lewis.

Burr led Cunningham 40 percent to 31 percent with 29 percent undecided and Lewis by 42 percent to 31 percent with 27 percent undecided.

The race to fill retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's seat in 2010 is shaping up as a competitive one with Rep. Paul Hodes holding a slight lead if he runs against Charlie Bass and in a statistical tie if his opponent is Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted July 13-15.

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Hodes leads Bass 42 percent to 37 percent with 19 percent undecided while Ayotte edges Hodes 39 percent to 38 percent with 21 percent undecided. the margin of error is 4 points. When the favorability ratings of the three are tested, the most important figure seems to be the number of people who have no opinion, which ranges from 45 percent for Hodes to 46 percent for bass and 51 percent for Ayotte.

When it comes to three-term Democratic Gov. John Lynch, 61 percent of voters say they would re-elect him in 2010, 24 percent who consider voting for someone else and 15 percent want to replace him.

President Obama is scheduled to stump for Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine today, but a new poll from Monmouth University shows that it will take more than the president to save the vulnerable governor's campaign.

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The poll, conducted July 9-14, found that 69 percent of likely voters said Obama's support for Corzine will have no impact on their decision whether or not to vote for the governor, who faces a strong challenge from Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

Obama received a 59 percent job approval rating from likely voters surveyed while Corzine received a 41 percent favorability rating. Christie received a 50 percent favorability rating.

Another poll augurs a close primary contest between New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney in 2010.

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A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters conducted July 14 found that 33 percent supported Maloney and 27 percent supported Gillibrand in a hypothetical match-up. That spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error. Thirty percent of respondents were unsure whom they would vote for.

The poll's results aren't very conclusive since neither Gillibrand nor Maloney are particularly well known to the Democratic electorate.

Forty-nine percent had a favorable or somewhat favorable impression of their sitting senator, 25 percent had a somewhat or very unfavorable impression and 26 percent were unsure. Maloney registered similar numbers - 42 percent held a favorable or somewhat favorable view of the Manhattan-based House member, 24 percent viewed her unfavorably and 34 percent were unsure.

Texas Republicans like both their governor, Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison -- giving them both favorability ratings north of 70 percent -- but when it comes to choosing between those two for the nomination for governor, the incumbent has a distinct edge.

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A Rasmussen Reports survey taken Wednesday showed that Perry has a 10-point edge as he starts fending off a challenge from Hutchison.

The survey, conducted of 776 voters who are likely to vote in the March 2 GOP election, had Perry with 46 percent of the vote and Hutchison with 36 percent. The rest of the respondents said they were undecided or support some other candidate.

At this early stage. former Massachusetts Gov. and last year's presidential hopeful Mitt Romney leads a list of other Republicans when it comes to who should top the GOP ticket in 2012, with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin a close second, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 10-12.

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The poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters has Romney at 26 percent, Palin at 21 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 19 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 3 percent and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour at 2 percent.

When it comes to favorability ratings, Palin leads the pack among Republicans with a 72 percent to 21 percent favorable-to-unfavorable ratio but among all Americans she is viewed unfavorably by 45 percent and favorably by 43 percent.

With less than four months remaining until the Nov. 3 election for the Virginia governorship, the race between Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell remains very close.

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A Rasmussen Reports survey taken July 14 rates the contest essentially as a dead heat, with McDonnell, a former state Attorney General, at 44 percent and Deeds, a state senator, at 41 percent in a trial heat.

Half of respondents said that they had a very favorable or somewhat favorable impression of McDonnell, compared to 27 percent who said their impression of him was very unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable. He's viewed a bit more positively than Deeds, whose figures are 49 percent very/somewhat favorable and 35 percent very/somewhat unfavorable.

Gallup's latest approval-to-disapproval ration based on July 10-12 polling was 58 percent to 36 percent, but the pollster provided a further analysis today looking behind those numbers and found a big divide in the reasons behind Americans' opinions.

The biggest factor in the approval numbers was the public's view of Obama's "leadership." Fifty-four center said they saw him favorably because of that factor, but of those who disapprove of Obama's performance, 65 percent attributed their opinion to their view of his leadership. Obama's stand on issues accounted for 17 percent of those who approve his performance compared to 24 percent who cited this for their disapproval. Fifteen percent liked Obama for his personal characteristics, while 24 percent of those in the disapproval camp did not.

Among those who liked Obama for his leadership, the biggest group (31 percent) said he was doing a good job under difficult circumstances. The biggest group among those who disapprove of Obama's leadership (24 percent) say it is because he is spending too much.

Americans favor passage of a major health care system overhaul this year by 56 percent to 33 percent although there is a sharp partisan divide on the issue and many shades of opinions on specific proposals, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 10-12.

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Democrats want an overhaul this year by 79 percent to 12 percent and they are joined by independents by a margin of 55 percent to 30 percent. But Republicans oppose an overhaul by 71 percent to 23 percent.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's approval ratings have sunk to an all-time low, dragging down his chances against Republican challenger Chris Christie in this fall's gubernatorial race, a new Quinnipiac University Poll reports.

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The poll, conducted July 8 through 12, found that 60 percent of likely voters disapprove of Corzine's job performance compared to 33 percent who approve, and that he now trails Christie 53 percent to 41 percent in their general election match-up.

That's a gain for Christie from the ten point lead - 50 percent to 40 percent - he held over Corzine in June.

Americans say by 65 percent to 22 percent that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin does not have the ability to be an effective president, according to a CBS News poll conducted July 9-12.

Eighty-six percent of Democrats predictably hold that view, while independents agree by 55 percent to 30 percent. Even Republicans don't think she's equipped for the job by a 51 percent to 33 percent margin. Pluralities among all those groups - Democrats, Republicans and independents, don't think she will run for President in 2012.

The (minority) of Americans who believe the economy is getting better has dropped since last month and that's taken a toll on President Obama's approval rating which also fell since June, according to a CBS News poll conducted July 9-12.

Obama's approval to disapproval ratio is now 57 percent to 32 percent, still respectable, but a falloff from the 63 percent to 26 percent numbers he enjoyed in early June. That coincided with the percentage of Americans who believed the economy was getting better dropping from 27 percent to 21 percent, and those believing it was getting worse rising from 25 percent to 33 percent. Forty-five percent believed it was staying about the same.

Forty-nine percent percent of voters are opposed to the health care overhaul plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, while 46 percent are for it, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 10-11. Two weeks ago, voters supported the plan 50 percent to 45 percent.

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The biggest group among the respondents were those who strongly opposed the plan, joined by 11 percent who "somewhat" opposed it. That compares to 22 percent who strongly support the overhaul and 24 percent who somewhat favor it.

Opposition is higher among voters who have health insurance: 43 percent favor the plan but 52 percent oppose it. Those who strongly oppose it outnumber those who strongly favor it by two-to-one - 40 percent to to 20 percent.

Congressional passage of the plan by August, as the president had hoped, now seems unlikely, with Democrats arguing primarily over how to meet its estimated $1 trillion price tag. But public opinion could shift in either direction if agreement is reached and as details of the plan become clearer.

Americans favor Senate confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor by 53 to 33 percent, according to a Gallup poll conducted July 10-12. Thirteen percent had no opinion.

A CBS News poll conducted July 9-12 said 30 percent believed Sotomayor should be confirmed compared to 14 percent who disagreed, but 52 percent responded that they couldn't say yet.

When it comes to whether the public views her favorably or not, a different question than whether she should be confirmed, the CBS survey says 62 percent of the public are undecided or haven't heard enough. For the rest, 23 percent see her favorable and 15 percent do not.

Democrats still lead Republicans by 49 percent to 40 percent when it comes to which party Americans identify with, but that's down from the 13 point advantage they had in the first quarter of the year, according to a Gallup analysis of its polling data between April and June.

Leaned Party Identification, Quarterly Averages, 2009 Gallup Polls

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Gallup says the smaller margin is due more to a drop in Democratic support than an increase in Republican support.

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Norm Coleman (Getty)

If former Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman has designs on the governor's office that fellow Republican Tim Pawlenty is vacating in 2010, he didn't help himself with the way he handled the recount battle with newly-minted Sen. Al Franken, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 7-8.

Voters said by 54 percent to 26 percent that Coleman's handling of the recount made it less likely they'd support him for governor or some other office while 20 percent said it made no difference. Coleman is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent of voters and favorably by 38 percent with 11 percent not sure.

President Obama's job approval rating has slipped from an average of 61 percent in June to 58 percent for the first eight days of July, with the largest of the drop being among independents, according to Gallup's tracking polls conducted July 1-8.

Obama started out the year with a 62 percent job approval rating among independents and now that has fallen to 53 percent. It was 59 percent in June. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in late June also found erosion of independents' support for Obama.

Gallup said that, compared to where other first term presidents stood in July, Obama's approval rating is above-average only compared to Bill Clinton.

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Democrats have slight advantages over Republicans in Ohio's 2010 races for governor and senator, but a lot of voters are still unfamiliar with most of the candidates, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted July 6-8.

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In the Senate race, Republican former Rep. Rob Portman trails Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 42 percent to 35 percent and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner by 40 percent to 36 percent.

In a Democratic primary, Fisher leads Brunner, 22 percent to 17 percent, with 61 percent undecided.

Though Fisher and Brunner are statewide officials, about half of respondents said they didn't know enough about them to have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. Sixty-two percent of those surveyed said they didn't have an opinion about Portman, a budget and trade official to President George W. Bush.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry holds a 38 percent to 26 percent lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison with 27 percent undecided should she decide to challenge him in a Republican primary, according to a University of Texas-Austin Poll conducted June 11-12. The margin of error is 5.14 points.

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Kinky's back!

On the Democratic side, the poll is not much help since 64 percent are undecided at this early stage. The only one of four candidates tested that broke double-digits was Kinky Friedman at 12 percent. The writer, singer, humorist and sometime politicians ran for governor as an independent in 2006 and placed fourth in the six-person race.

President Obama is on the wrong side of the job approval numbers, with 51 percent disapproving somewhat or strongly of his performance while 38 percent give him positive marks. Twelve percent neither approve or disapprove.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

A third poll has weighed in this week on how Americans are viewing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin after her surprise announcement that she was resigning this month, and this one says a majority of voters say her decision makes them less likely to support her if she runs for President and also believe she's not fit to hold the office.

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Sarah Palin (Scott Ferrell/CQ)

By 55 percent to 37 percent, voters said Palin was not fit to be President, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 6-7. Fifty-seven percent said her decision to resign her job with 18 months to go made it less likely they would support her, 30 percent said more likely and 14 percent weren't sure.

Voters are split on how they view Palin, with 46 percent seeing her favorably and 45 percent unfavorably. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

Fifty-four percent of Americans say they would be not too likely or not likely at all to vote for Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin if she runs for president in 2012 while 43 percent would be very or somewhat likely to support her , according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 6.

The hard cores for and against Palin are the 19 percent who put themselves in the "very likely" to vote for her category while 41 percent say "not at all likely."

Likelihood of voting for Sarah Palin, by political party.

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Thirty-five percent of Republicans say they'd be very likely to vote for her and another 37 percent somewhat likely. Twenty-five percent rate their chances of backing her not too likely or not likely at all. Seventy percent of Democrats oppose her. The results among independents are the most mixed: a plurality - 39 percent - are not at all likely to vote for her joined by another 14 percent who describe themselves as not too likely. Nineteen percent deem themselves in the very likely camp and 25 percent describe themselves as somewhat likely.

While there's been a debate among pundits about whether Palin helped or hurt her presidential chances by announcing her resignation, 70 percent of those polled said it had no effect on the way they view her.

Former Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell is leading Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds 49 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 30 - July 2. The margin of error is 4 points.

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Eighty-six percent of voters say they are firmly committed to their choice while 14 percent could change their minds.

Deeds' favorable to unfavorable ratio is 48 percent to 29 percent with 24 per cent unsure. McDonnell's is 51 percent to 32 percent with 17 percent unsure.

The two Democrat hopefuls to replace retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich, Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher, are running neck-and-neck for the party's nomination, but both of them would lead (although, in one case, not by much) the two GOP candidates they were matched up against in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted June 26 - July 1.

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But they hold that edge in an economic environment bad enough that President Obama's approval ratings has slipped to 49 percent to 44 percent, and 48 percent to 46, disapproves of the way he is handling the economy. In May, his approval-to-disapproval ratio was 62 percent to 31 percent and his marks on the economy were 57 percent to 36 percent.

It may seem at odds with the solid victories of President Obama and congressional Democrats last year, but those Americans who say their views have changed in the last few years have become more conservative than more liberal by a 2-to-1 margin, according to Gallup's analysis of a survey conducted June 14-17. That being said, most - 42 percent - say their ideology has not changed and the trend has not had a consistent impact on how Americans view specific issues.

Forty-seven percent of Republicans say they have grown more conservative compared to 43 percent whose views have not changed; among Democrats, 40 percent say their views have not changed while 34 percent have become more conservative and 23 percent more liberal; and, the views of 43 percent of independents have held steady while 37 percent became more conservative and 19 percent more liberal.

While Democrats have enjoyed two election cycles where they made huge strides in building their congressional majorities, we've been struck by the series of polls in the last few weeks that show a far grimmer outlook for their gubernatorial colleagues as we approach 2010.

Here's a summary of the last five governor polls we've posted here in Poll Tracker:

  • New Hampshire: Three-term Democratic Gov. John Lynch was re-elected by landslides in his last two races and has enjoyed high approval ratings since his first term as New Hampshire governor, but economic and budget challenges have taken some of the luster off his current standing, according to a University of New Hampshire Granite State poll conducted June 24 - July 1.

Barack Obama's approval ratings after six months in office still range from 57 percent to 65 percent depending on which of the latest polls you choose, but he should be on notice that the so-called "honeymoon" period for newly-minted presidents has fallen since the Nixon administration, according to Gallup.

Gallup says that the honeymoon period - where chief executives are still enjoying approval ratings of 55 percent or more - lasted an average 26 months after they took office, while presidents since Gerald Ford only logged an average of seven months.

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John Lynch

Three-term Democratic Gov. John Lynch was re-elected by landslides in his last two races and has enjoyed high approval ratings since his first term as New Hampshire governor, but economic and budget challenges have taken some of the luster off his current standing, according to a University of New Hampshire Granite State poll conducted June 24 - July 1.

Lynch still has a favorable-to-unfavorable job approval ratio that other pressed governors would envy - 63 percent to 27 percent - but that's his lowest showing since October 2005 and the first time since then he has dipped below 70 percent. Sixty-two percent have a favorable opinion of Lynch compared to 24 percent who view him unfavorably, a net drop of 21 points.

First-term Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is looking increasingly vulnerable in 2010 especially if the economy stays in the tank, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted June 26 - July 1.

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Strickland's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio stands at 42 percent to 37 percent in the current poll compared to 53 percent to 25 percent in May. His job approval rating is down to 46 percent to 42 percent compared to 57 percent to 29 percent in May. Voters say by 40 percent to 34 percent that, so far in his administration, he has not kept his campaign promises. They disapprove of his handling of the economy by 53 percent to 33 percent and of the state budget by a similar margin.

In one of the final polls before Election Day in 2008, Minnesota voters said by 52 percent to 45 percent that they had an unfavorable view of Al Franken. Now that he is about to be seated in the Senate, a survey by Rasmussen Reports, conducted July 1, says that voters nationwide regard Franken unfavorably by 44 percent to 34 percent with 22 percent undecided.

Among those who feel the strongest, 29 percent have a very unfavorable few of Franken while 12 percent have a very favorable view. Fifty-one percent of Republicans and 32 percent of unaffiliated voters view him very unfavorably, while only 19 percent of Democrats are in the "very favorable" category.

While President Obama's approval-to-disapproval numbers after months in office remain a more than respectable 57 percent to 33 percent, his standing among independents has moved in a negative direction by a net 12 points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted June 23-29.

Fifty-two percent of independents approve of Obama's performance compared to 37 percent who don't, a falloff from the 57 percent to 30 percent standing with them he enjoyed in early June.

That said, there was a modest rise in the number of voters who are satisfied with the way things are going in the country. Thirty-nine percent are very or somewhat satisfied compared to 60 percent who are somewhat dissatisfied (only 5 percent were "very satisfied). That compared to 36 percent who counted themselves as satisfied in April and 63 percent who weren't satisfied.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie is leading New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 45 percent to 39 percent with 15 percent undecided, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted June 22-29. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

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That's somewhat closer than a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday in which Christie led 51 percent to 41 percent, but Fairleigh Dickinson's Peter Woolley says "Even though it's early in the campaign, it is remarkable that a Republican is running ahead in New Jersey."

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is statistically tied with Rep. Carolyn Maloney when matched up in a Democratic primary in 2010, according to a Marist poll conducted June 23-29.

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Should she get past Maloney, Gillibrand leads two Republicans matched-up with her in the poll, but the one over whom she has the most comfortable lead - Rep. Peter King - has signaled he would not make the race because of the huge amounts of campaign money he would have to raise.

Laying down some markers on what they want or don't in a health care overhaul, 69 percent of voters said Americans should have the option of a public plan that competes with private insurers, but only 29 percent said they would use it, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted June 23-29.

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Fifty-eight percent said it would be a bad thing if government ran the health care system compared to 32 percent who thought it would be a good thing, but voters were roughly split on whether a public plan as President Obama has proposed was a Trojan horse that would leave to government-run health care. Forty-nine percent said that would not happen while 46 percent believed it would. The margin of error is 1.8 points.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted June 26-28, found support for President Obama's health care proposal at 54 percent to 45 percent with another 54 percent concerned their health care costs will increase if it passes and only 17 percent believing they would decrease.

In the Quinnipiac poll, nearly three-quarters of voters said they would not be willing to pay more taxes, or would not be willing to pay more than $500 a year, for an overhaul plan that reduces costs and covers the uninsured. Forty-five percent were in the no additional taxes category, while 27 percent said they were willing to pay more if the tab was under $500. Fifteen percent were willing to pay between $500 and $1,000 more.