Dems Have Edge in Oregon Governor Race - If They Can Recruit Top Names

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If Democrats can recruit their top potential challengers for Oregon's 2010 open seat governor's race, the party begins the race at an advantage, according to results from a new poll.

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A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters conducted June 22 -24 showed Democrats, former Gov. John Kitzhaber, Rep. Peter A. DeFazio and former Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, each leading potential GOP challengers in hypothetical matchups.

Kitzhaber, who is considering the race but has yet to announce his plans, bested Republican Rep. Greg Walden in a potential gubernatorial matchup 44 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided. The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points. Walden, the only Republican in Oregon's Congressional delegation, has not indicated whether he will run for governor.

Kitzhaber also led former Republican Sen. Gordon H. Smith 46 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent undecided.

Smith, who was defeated for re-election last fall by Democrat Jeff Merkeley, has returned to the private sector and has indicated he is unlikely to reenter politics.

And Kitzhaber also fared better than the third Republican included in the poll, state Sen. Jason Atkinson, who is expected to enter the race. Kitzhaber received 48 percent to 35 percent for Atkinson and 17 percent of respondents were undecided.

DeFazio led Smith 47 percent to 37 percent with 16 percent undecided and against his House colleague, Walden, DeFazio led 45 percent to 37 percent with 18 percent undecided. DeFazio bested Atkinson 48 percent to 34 percent with 18 percent undecided.

DeFazio and Kitzhaber did slightly better in the poll than Democrat Bradbury, who has already begun preparing a campaign. A fifth Democrat, Steve Novick, a communications consultant who ran for Senate last year and lost in the Democratic primary, was also polled, but Novick's campaign said Friday they are not pursuing a bid due to the likelihood of a campaign by Kitzhaber.

The poll did not include active Republican candidate Allen Alley, a businessman who ran unsuccessfully for state treasurer in 2006. Oregon's current governor, Democrat Theodore R. Kulongoski, is barred by term limits from seeking a third term next year.

CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democrat.

To follow the 2009 and 2010 governors' races, check out CQ Politics' election map.

-Rachel Kapochunas

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