If either former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu or current Republican Sen. Judd Gregg run for the Senate in New Hampshire next year, the GOP would be narrowly favored to hold the seat in the Democratic-trending state, according to a new poll.
A Granite State Poll conducted by The University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Democratic Rep. Paul W. Hodes narrowly trailing Sununu in one potential match-up and significantly trailing Gregg in another.
The poll of 503 adults was conducted April 13-22.
Among the findings:
A total of 52 percent of likely voters said they would support Gregg's re-election bid and 36 percent said they would support 2nd District Congressman Hodes were the election held today. An additional 10 percent were undecided. Gregg has stated he will not run for re-election in 2010, though Republicans have been urging him to reconsider.
Hodes also narrowly trailed Sununu among all likely voters: 46 percent for Sununu to 41 percent for Hodes and 11 percent undecided. Sununu has been courted by Republicans to seek a comeback in 2010. The senator was ousted last fall by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
CQ Politics rates the 2010 Senate race as a tossup..
The poll also explored favorability ratings for the state's congressional delegation as well as some of their potential challengers.
Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter faces a potentially competitive challenge from Republican Frank Guinta, mayor of Manchester. Guinta filed paperwork last week to establish a 2010 committee in Shea-Porter's 1st District.
Guinta's favorability was measured at 30 percent within the 1st District. Shea-Porter received a 38 percent favorability rating within the 1st District sample.
Republican businessman Sean Mahoney, another potential Shea-Porter challenger, is an unknown quantity, the poll found.
A total of 80 percent of 1st District respondents did not know Mahoney well enough to offer an opinion of him.
In the 2nd District seat that Hodes will leave open, Republican former Rep. Charlie Bass was shown to have higher name identification and approval ratings than Hodes' 2008 Republican challenger Jennifer Horn, a conservative radio host. Neither Horn nor Bass has announced their intention to run.
The poll's subsample of 261 adults in the 1st Congressional District had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. The subsample of 238 adults in the 2nd District had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.4 percentage points.
The statewide poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
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