Eye on the Senate: Texas Outlook if Hutchinson Leaves for Governor Run

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CQ Photo
David Dewhurst (Getty)

If Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison challenges and beats Gov. Rick Perry in a Republican primary in 2010 (see our post yesterday on her chances), some speculative match-ups on who might seek her seat suggest that it could produce a competitive race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Feb. 18-20.

CQ Photo
Greg Abbott (Getty)

The strongest candidates in the poll were Republicans Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Attorney General Greg Abbott, although neither has signaled intentions to seek the seat. The poll also included a match-up if GOP state Sen. Florence Shapiro runs. PPP tested them against two Democrats, former state comptroller John Sharp) and Houston Mayor Bill White who has announced his intention to run, though his eye was on Hutchison as his foe.

Republicans not tested by PPP were Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, who has announced his intention to run, former Secretary of State Roger Williams, Texas Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, and insurance sales manager Scott Nichol.

  • Dewhurst leads Sharp 42 percent to 36 percent with 22 percent undecided and White by 42 percent to 37 percent with 21 percent undecided.

  • Abbott leads Sharp 44 percent to 36 percent with 19 percent undecided and White by 42 percent to 36 percent with 22 percent undecided.

  • Should the GOP candidate be Shapiro, she trails Sharp 37 percent to 34 percent with 29 percent undecided and leads White 37 percent to 36 percent with 27 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent.

Dewhurst and Abbott are clearly better known than the other candidates if the measure is the percentage of people who were too unsure about them to have an opinion. For Dewhurst, it's 27 percent and for Abbott 32 percent while Shapiro's number is 48 percent.

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