Republican Sen. Christopher Bond's decision not to run for re-election in Missouri in 2010 positions Secretary of State Robin Carnahan as an early favorite to take the seat, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 10-11.
Carnahan, of course, is the daughter of one of the state's most prominent political families, former Gov. Mel Carnahan, who died in a plane crash in 2000 during a campaign for the Senate against GOP incumbent John Ashcroft that he won posthumously, and his wife Jean Carnahan who filled out the remainder of the term her husband would have served, but lost a bid for re-election in 2002 to Republican Jim Talent. That seat switched back to the Democrats when Talent lost in 2006 to Claire McCaskill.
PPP matched Carnahan against three potential Republican opponents: Talent, Rep. Roy Blunt, and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman.
Carnahan leads Blunt, although by a statistically insignificant 45 percent to 44 percent; she bests Talent 47 percent to 43 percent; and her lead over Steelman is 47 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 3.3 percent.
PPP says: "A key advantage for Carnahan is her strong standing among white voters. Carnahan trails Blunt by only a single point with whites, is up two among them against Talent, and has a six point lead against Steelman with that demographic. Any Missouri Democrat who can run roughly even with white voters will coast to an easy victory when the party's overwhelming advantage with black voters is factored in."
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