Eye on the Senate: Warning Signs for GOP in Ohio and N.C.

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There are warning signs on the horizon for two Republican senators up for re-election in 2010 - first-termer Richard Burr of North Carolina and two-termer George Voinovich of Ohio, according to polls looking ahead to the next election cycle.

cooper copy.gifn North Carolina, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Dec. 8-9 said that Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper leads Burr in a hypothetical match-up by 39 percent to 34 percent with 26 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Thirty-two percent of voters approve of the job Burr is doing, 31 percent do not and 37 percent say they are not sure. Burr's approval to disapproval ratio is 44 percent to 23 percent with 34 percent not sure. PPP notes that Burr leads Cooper among white voters by just six points when a Republican usually needs about a 20 point cushion to win in the state.

moore copy.gifDemocrats in North Carolina had their appetite whetted for taking on Burr after state Sen. Kay Hagan beat Elizabeth Dole in November's election. Aside from Cooper, State Treasurer Richard Moore (left) has been mentioned as a possible challenger to Burr. Both appear to be jockeying for position as 2010 approaches.

In Ohio, a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Dec. 4-8 said that if an election were held today, 36 percent would vote for Voinovich while 35 percent would vote for a Democrat. Eighteen percent said it depended on who the Democrat was and 11 percent expressed no opinion. voin copy.gifAsked another way, voters said by 44 percent to 32 percent that Voinovich deserved re-election with 22 percent expressing no opinion. Voinovich's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 39 percent to 25 percent with a third of voters saying they had not heard enough about him, kind of remarkable for a two term senator who also served two terms as governor.

"Incumbents, especially those well-known to voters as is Voinovich, are thought to be in trouble when less than 50 percent of voters say they deserve to be re-elected," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. "Moreover, in a mythical trial heat, he is tied with an unnamed Democratic opponent. That's not a good sign for Voinovich's chances, although his positive job approval rating by 51 percent of voters is evidence he is by no means a dead duck."

A SurveyUSA poll had Voinovich's approval to disapproval rating at 46 percent to 44 percent with 10 percent not sure. Independents disapproved of his performance by 54 percent to 40 percent, although in the Quinnipiac poll had contradictory figures, showing they approved of his performance by 52 percent to 35 percent.

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