December 2008 Archives

Americans appear to have mixed feelings when it comes to the trade-offs between a free market economy and the need for government regulation of business, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Dec. 21.

Seventy percent of those surveyed believe a free market economy is better than a government-managed one, but voters believe by 52 percent to 36 percent that there is a need for more government regulation of big business, a sentiment no doubt bolstered by the many accounts of the kinds of financial dealings in recent year that didn't get on regulators' radar and contributed to the recent crisis. Forty-eight percent fear the government will do too much in reacting to the country's current economic woes and 41 percent say the government will do too little.

Sixty-five percent believe that government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

cards copy.gif In our plastic-addicted society, 60 percent of Americans believe that credit cards are a very or somewhat important part of the economy and 51 percent are worried that if Congress requires credit card companies to reduce the interest they charge, the cards will be harder to get, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Dec.18-19. That balances off against the 80 percent who believe credit card companies are taking unfair advantage of consumers with the rates they are charged at a time when the Fed has been pushing rates down.

The Census Bureau says that in 2006 there were 173 million cardholders in 2006 carrying 1.4 billion cards, a number expected to grow to 181 million people holding 1.6 billion cards in 2010. The Rasmussen poll says 85 percent of those surveyed believe cards tempt people to buy things they cannot afford.

Americans support Barack Obama's intention to move a large stimulus package, even as much as $800 billion, by 56 percent to 42 percent, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Dec. 19-21. Seventeen percent believe it will help the economy a lot and another 50 percent say it will help somewhat, while 31 percent believe it won't help much or at all.

Although the crisis in the financial industry generating much discussion about whether regulators and congressional oversight committees were asleep at the switch, Americans split at 39 percent each about whether overall there was too much or too little regulation of business and industry. Twenty percent said the amount of regulation was just right.

In another poll on who should fill the Hillary Clinton seat, voters in New York say 33 percent to 29 percent that Gov. David Paterson should name Caroline Kennedy over Attorney General Andrew Cuomo even though they are split on whether she is qualified, with 41 percent saying she's not and 40 percent saying she is, according to a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Dec. 17-21. The margin of error is 3.4 points.

Voters believe Paterson will pick Kennedy by a 48 percent to 25 percent margin.

Two previous polls differed on voter preferences. a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Dec. 8-11 had Kennedy way ahead of Cuomo at 44 percent to 23 percent. A Siena College poll docuted Dec. 8-11 had Cuomo edging Kennedy 26 percent to 23 percent overall, and by 30 percent to 28 percent among Democrats.

Voters oppose President Bush's decision to provide up to $17.4 billion in loans to General Motors and Chrysler by 49 percent to 38 percent with 13 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Dec. 19-20. They also say by 51 percent to 44 percent that the automakers are not very or at all likely to pay them back.

They render a split decision on whether the companies will be able to show by March 31 that they have taken the necessary steps to ensure their financial viability, with 50 percent saying not very or at all likely, and 47 percent answering somewhat or very likely. They don't believe - by 50 percent to 42 percent - that the automakers will be able to gain significant union concessions.

Americans have high expectations of Barack Obama once he takes office and they also have a long list of priorities of the issues they want him to address, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Dec. 11-14. And, of course, while high expectations reflect a level of confidence in a leader, they also carry the political risk of what happens if he does not meet them.

Seventy-percent of Americans expect Obama to improve the U.S. image abroad, 68 percent expect him to bring about health care reform, 67 percent say he will implement policies to deal with global warming, 64 percent believe he will end U.S. involvement in Iraq and 46 percent believe he will improve the economy. But the issue of the economy stands out because it is the only one of these goals in which a majority (52 percent) don't believe Obama will achieve it.

There are some significant partisan divides when it comes to these expectations. On all five, the gap between Democrats and Republicans in terms of having faith in Obama on these issues ranges from 26 points (global warming) to 47 points (the economy). Independents believe in Obama more than Republicans (though much less than Democrats), but on the economy, only 39 percent expect him to be able to improve it compared to 68 percent of Democrats

Voters are split at 37 percent each with 26 percent unsure about whether Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a senator, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Dec. 17-18. It should be noted that this is a national poll, not one of New Yorkers where Hillary Clinton's soon-to-be-vacant seat beckons. Fifty-nine percent said Kennedy would not be considered for the seat if it wasn't for her last name. All that being said, 67 percent view her favorably.

Forty-seven percent said they were very or somewhat worried about whether the U.S. was developing an unofficial group of royal families with too much influence over government and politics, which coincidentally, is the subject of a column today by CQ's John Bicknell.

Few changes of fortunes in politics has been as dramatic as President Bush's nose-dive in approval ratings since the high standing he established with the public in the wake of the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

18bush copy.gifA look at the numbers by the Pew Research Center showed him at 86 percent approval for the way he handled that crisis, a number that slipped in 2002 and 2003 until it bumped up again after the U.S. invasion of Iraq appeared to be successful, leading to Bush's visit to the carrier Abraham Lincoln where, with a "Mission Accomplished" banner in the background, the President declared major combat in Iraq at an end. accomp copy.gif(The banner had been put up by the White House advance team, but Bush distanced himself from it, sensitive to criticism that such a declaration was premature). But his approval numbers rose back up, to 75 percent.

After the 2004 election, it was all downhill, with Bush never again getting above the 50 percent mark. Events like the federal handling of Hurricane Katrina, the beating Republicans took in the 2006 midterm elections and the Walter Reed Hospital story greased the skid until Bush hit bottom during the current economic crisis, languishing around 25 percent.

The top choice of Colorado voters to replace Sen. Ken Salazar is Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, although the field of contenders still looks pretty open, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Dec. 16-17.

Hickenlooper is the choice of 23 percent, followed by Rep. John Salazar (the senator's brother) at 15 percent, House Speaker Andrew Romanoff at 12 percent, former mayor and cabinet member Frederico Pena at 11 percent, Rep. Diane Degette at 8 percent, Rep. Ed Perlmutter at 6 percent and Treasurer Cary Kennedy at 2 percent.

Hickenlooper is the top choice for Democrats, Republicans and independents, and polls strongest among White voters. Pena draws the support of 15 percent of black voters followed by four of others at 12 percent. But Pena is the clear leader among Hispanics (14 percent of the sample) with 32 percent with Salazar next at 18 percent.

"The main conclusion of this poll is that there is no overwhelming preference among Colorado voters when it comes to who should replace Ken Salazar," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "Most of the candidates being discussed publicly at this point have some level of popularity."

A pair of polls has produced different results about the prospect of Caroline Kennedy as a choice to take the seat that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton will be vacating.

When asked who Gov. David Paterson should choose, 26 percent named named Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, himself the scion of one of the state's best known political families, and 23 percent said Kennedy, according to a Siena College poll conducted dec. 8-11. When it came to just Democrats, Cuomo was favored by 30 percent to 28 percent. The other candidates mentioned all registered in the single digits. The poll said Cuomo led in every region of the state, which is well known for its upstate-downstate differences, Kennedy led among black and Latino voters and they tied among younger voters. Their favorable to unfavorable ratios are similar: Kennedy's at 58 percent to 21 percent, and Cuomo's at 59 percent to 24 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Dec. 8-9 had Kennedy as the top choice of Democrats by 44 percent to 23 percent. The poll found her margin to be narrower upstate where she leads 36 percent to 22 percent. She leads 45 percent to 25 percent in New York City and has her strongest support in the suburbs where her margin is 57 percent to 24 percent.

Americans are more worried about the state of the economy, and its impact on them, than they have been in decades. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Dec. 11-14 says concerns about job security are at their highest in 33 years of polling, and holiday spending plans are being curtailed to an extent not see for 23 years.

Sixty-six percent of those surveyed are worried about maintaining their standard of living compared to 51 percent in December 2007. And 63 percent believe the country is in the throes of a long-term economic decline. The same percentage says they have been hurt financially by the current recession. Fifty-one percent have been hurt by the drop in the stock market compared to 43 percent in October.

After suffering two straight beatings at the polls in 2006 and 2008, Republicans in Congress are continuing their downhill slide, according to a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 12-14. They even have the unhappy choice of deciding which number they think is worse - hitting a new Gallup low in approval ratings, or seeing that even President Bush rates higher than they do.

The job approval rating for congressional Republicans is 25 percent compared to 29 percent for Bush and 37 percent for their Democratic colleagues.

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While 65 percent of Americans are optimistic about Iraq's prospects - 19 points higher than a year ago, 70 percent say Barack Obama should withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq in the next 16 months, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Dedc. 11-14. Nearly-two thirds believe he will be able to do it.

The public is less sanguine about the outlook in Afghanistan with 49 percent being optimistic and 47 percent pessimistic.

By 64 percent to 34 percent, Americans say the was in Iraq was not worth fighting and 50 percent of those fall in the category of believing it strongly and not "somewhat." However, by 55 percent to 39 percent, they believe the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting. Over 70 percent of Republicans believe that both were worth fighting.

Several polls today suggested that a quarter or more of Americans, although not a majority, have questions about what contacts President-elect Obama or his team might have had with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich about filling the seat Obama vacated after he won the White House.

A majority of Americans say President-elect Barack Obama has done enough to explain any discussions that he or his representatives may have had with Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich about the filling of the seat he vacated after winning the White House, according ton a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Dec. 11-14. Fifty-one percent said he has done enough, but 34 percent said he hadn't and 14 percent expressed no opinion. ABC News polling director Gary Langer characterized the 51 percent as a "tepid" vote in Obama's favor. The view that Obama had not done enough was held by 51 percent of Republicans.

However, the poll said the public considered Obama honest and trustworthy by a 67 percent to 22 percent margin and three-quarters approve of the way he is handling the transition.

It's been a bad year for most of the media, business-wise, and a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 4-7 doesn't provide very encouraging news for the future. As the broadcast networks and newspapers watch their revenues and audience decline, and even National Public Radio suffers an economic shock, Gallup says that only the Internet and cable news have shown an increase in their popularity.

Cable news network showed an increase of 6 points to 40 percent of those who say they turn to it for news when this December is compared to December, 2006. The numbers for the Internet jumped from 22 percent to 31 percent in that period.

Local television is the top source of news for most surveyed at 51 percent, but that's a 4 point falloff from two years ago. Cable news now ranks second, local newspapers third at 40 percent, a 4 point decline, a nightly network news programs at 34 percent, a 1 point decline. News on the internet is fifth. They are following by morning news and interview programs on television, public television, radio talk shows, NPR and national newspapers.

No, Americans probably are not shocked by the scandal involving Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich says Gallup which dusted off some of its polling data from 2006 showing that only 22 percent of Americans held their governors in very high or high esteem (the "very high" number was 4 percent). Which was the point made Wednesday by our columnist Richard Connor.

A Rasmussen Reports poll we posted yesterday in which 31 percent said Blagojevich was about as ethical as other politicians and 39 percent believed that Blagojevich's attempts to get large campaign contributions in exchange for political favors was pretty typical.

All that being said, 52 percent in the Gallup survey said they regarded the honesty and ethics of governors and only 26 percent rated them low or very low. And governors did rank higher than senators or House members.

Sixty-five percent of registered voters rate Barack Obama's cabinet choices so far as excellent or good, and 72 percent - including a plurality of Republicans - believe Hillary Clinton will make a good Secretary of State, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Dec. 9-10. Fifty-three percent said they thought Obama chose Clinton because she was the best for the job and not to mend fences or to keep an eye on her.

Voters say by 56 percent to 35 percent that Obama's picks represent "real change" even though some have criticized him for selecting too many people from the Clinton administration era or who have been Washington fixtures.

As for expectations of Obama, 19 percent say he will ultimately turn out to be one of the nation's greatest presidents, 43 percent say he will be rated as good, and 28 percent believe he will be average or below average.

Americans' bleak view of the economy and their personal finances - the most negative in 15 years - has them cutting back spending, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Dec. 3-7. Ninety-two percent of the public says the economy is only fair or poor and 61 percent feel the same about their personal finances.

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Seventy-three percent plan are scaling back holiday spending. Sixty-two percent are cutting back on vacations compared to 48 percent who said last September they were doing so. Fifty-eight percent are eating out less often. Significant numbers are also delaying purchase of a major home item, delaying home purchases or improvements or delaying buying a new car.

Registered voters disapprove of proposals to provide federal loans to automakers by 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided, according to a Marist poll conducted Dec. 9-10. Democrats backed federal assistance by 53 percent to 36 percent, while Republicans opposed it by 61 percent to 33 percent, and independents were also against the idea, 51 percent to 40 percent.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted Dec. 3-7 said only 39 percent of Americans said it was right for the government to spend billions on assistance to automakers. Along partisan lines, only 31 percent of Republicans held that view, 38 percent of independents and 45 percent of Democrats.

This won't surprise anyone, (we think). Eighty-four percent of Illinois voters said Gov. Rod Blagojevich should resign, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Dec. 10. There were 9 percent who said he shouldn't. However, 53 percent said they thought it was not very likely or not likely at all that Blagojevich would do that. Seventy-nine percent said he should go to jail.

Fifty-nine percent said Blagojevich is less ethical than most politicians while 31 percent said he was about as ethical as others. Four percent said they thought he was more ethical.

Thirty-nine percent said Blagojevich's attempt to get large campaign contributions in exchange for favors were pretty typical of the way most politicians operate while 35 percent said it was not, and 26 percent said they were not sure.

Twenty-six percent of those polled said that it was very or somewhat likely that Barack Obama was involved in the corruption case, as opposed to 69 percent who did not find that likely. Rasmussen didn't specify what constituted involvement in its survey.

There are warning signs on the horizon for two Republican senators up for re-election in 2010 - first-termer Richard Burr of North Carolina and two-termer George Voinovich of Ohio, according to polls looking ahead to the next election cycle.

cooper copy.gifn North Carolina, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Dec. 8-9 said that Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper leads Burr in a hypothetical match-up by 39 percent to 34 percent with 26 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Thirty-two percent of voters approve of the job Burr is doing, 31 percent do not and 37 percent say they are not sure. Burr's approval to disapproval ratio is 44 percent to 23 percent with 34 percent not sure. PPP notes that Burr leads Cooper among white voters by just six points when a Republican usually needs about a 20 point cushion to win in the state.

Barack Obama continues to enjoy a post-election honeymoon with the public even as more than three-quarters say he will take office facing bigger challenges than most recent presidents, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Dec. 5-8. That finding is in synch with other polls about how Americans are feeling about Obama during this transition.

An Associated Press-GfK poll conducted Dec. 3-8 found almost three-quarters of Americans approve of the way Obama has been preparing his administration.

While Obama has repeatedly said he has tried to walk the line between showing he'd be ready to hit the "ground running" while recognizing there can only be one president at a time, three-quarters of Americans in the Journal/NBC poll say he has had the "right level of involvement" in terms of policymaking in the face of the serious challenges facing the country.

About two-thirds are generally pleased with the appointments to his administration that Obama has made so far.

elway copy.gifTwo-time Super Bowl winner John Elway's name has been bandied about as a challenger for the Colorado Senate seat held by first-term Democrat Ken Salazar in 2010, but as of now, the former Denver Bronco quarterback, who campaigned in the state for John McCain during this year's presidential race, trails 49 percent to 38 percent with 13 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Dec. 2-4. Former Rep. Tom Tancredo, who dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination before the first caucus or primary vote was cast, fares worse with Salazar leading 51 percent to 37 percent and 12 percent undecided.

New York Gov. David Paterson has to navigate a thicket of state politics in choosing a successor to Hillary Rodham Clinton when she leaves the Senate for the State Department. Caroline Kennedy and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo run first and second in a survey of New Yorkers by Public Policy polling and are tied in a poll by the Marist Institute.

Public Policy Polling:, conducted Dec. 8-9:

Kennedy 44 percent

Cuomo 23 percent

Rep. Kirsten Gilibrand 6 percent

Rep. Brian Higgins 5 percent

Rep. Nydia Velazquez 4 percent

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi 3 percent

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown 3 percent

Rep. Carolyn Maloney 3 percent

Nearly three-quarters of registered voters are feeling good about the election of Barack Obama, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Dec. 6-8. Seventy-four percent say they feel hopeful, optimistic or proud about his election while 22 percent describe themselves as disappointed, pessimistic or afraid.

The positive feeling is nearly universal among Democrats, shared by 71 percent of independents and 32 percent of Republicans. Those surveyed said by 59 percent to 32 percent that they had a good idea of where Obama wants to lead the country. Twenty-six percent believe he will be able to accomplish many of the things he promised in the campaign, 44 percent say he will achieve some of them, while 27 percent say he will accomplish few or none of them.

Obama's selection of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and retention of Robert Gates as Defense Secretary had an approval rating of 65 percent and 75 percent, respectively.

On the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Americans against a bailout of the Big Three automakers 54 percent to 37 percent, two polls are out today showing a closer divide in public opinion.

A Gallup poll conducted Dec. 4-7 showed 51 percent opposing financial assistance compared to 49 percent who favored it. That compared with Gallup's mid-November poll in which the public favored aid 47 percent to 43 percent.

A CBS News poll, also conducted Dec. 4-7, showed the split at 45 percent to 44 percent in favor of aid.

Americans oppose federal loans to the Big Three automakers by 54 percent to 37 percent with 10 percent undecided, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Dec. 3-7. That's about the same as the 57 percent to 35 percent margin when the question was asked in a Nov. 23 survey.

The poll did find some softening of opposition since those that "strongly" opposed the federal assistance fell from 36 percent to 30 percent. Republicans and independents take the hardest line, opposing aid by 57 percent and by 55 percent respectively. In November, the percentage in opposition in both cases was over 60 percent. Democrats are against it by 47 percent to 42 percent.

Yet another poll handicapping a potential race in Pennsylvania between Republican Sen. Arlen Specter and MSNBC "Hardball" host Chris Matthews: Rasmussen Reports has Specter leading Matthews by a bare 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Dec. 2 and has a 4 point margin of error. Specter's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 37 percent, while Matthews' is 49 percent to 37 percent with 15 percent "not sure." (They must be CNN-watchers). The moderate Specter has only a 68 percent favorability rating in his own party but benefits from being viewed positively by 48 percent of Democrats. As far as actual support, 70 percent of Republicans say they would vote for him and 32 percent of Democrats said they would too. (For the earlier polls on this match-up, click here).

Last week, Matthews denied a report on the blog FiveThirtyEight that he was "staffing up" for a run. But the Politico reported today that Matthews was "dead serious" about it.

When Californians voted for Proposition 8, providing for a state-wide ban on same sex marriage, exit polls showed that 7 out of 10 black voters supported the measure. Gallup has followed this up with an analysis of its polling data from May 2006, May 2007 and May 2008 showing that on this issue, black Democrats are as conservative as Republicans.

Thirty-one percent of black Democrats said that homosexual relations are morally acceptable compared to 61 percent of non-black Democrats and 55 percent of Democrats overall. That number put them more in line with Republicans among whom only 30 percent found such relations morally acceptable.

When Californians voted for Proposition 8, providing for a state-wide ban on same sex marriage, exit polls showed that 7 out of 10 black voters supported the measure. Gallup has followed this up with an analysis of its polling data from May 2006, May 2007 and May 2008 showing that on this issue, black Democrats are as conservative as Republicans.

Thirty-one percent of black Democrats said that homosexual relations are morally acceptable compared to 61 percent of non-black Democrats and 55 percent of Democrats overall. That number put them more in line with Republicans among whom only 30 percent found such relations morally acceptable.

Most Americans say they would prefer to live in communities that have political, racial, religious and economic diversity, but when the "facts on the ground" are analyzed, the data suggest Americans may "talk one way, but behave another," according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

Six in ten Americans said in a survey conducted Oct. 3-19 that they wanted to live in a diverse community. Sixty-three percent said they would rather live in a community where there was a mix of political views, 65 percent wanted to live in a racially diverse community, 59 percent want to live in a community where there are many people with different religions, and 61 percent expressed a preference for communities where there was a mix of people from different socioeconomic classes.

Public reaction to Barack Obama's choices for his national security team was positive with 69 percent approving of the selection of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and 80 percent voicing approval of the decision to keep Robert Gates as Defense Secretary, according to a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 1. In mid-November, 57 percent backed the idea of choosing Clinton.

Gates' approval rating was the higher because he won plaudits from 89 percent of Republicans while Clinton was backed by only 40 percent of them.

Overall, 78 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling his transition.

While there has been much made by the press, political observers and partisans about the high number of staff selections that have drawn on people from the Clinton administration, this is not resonating greatly as a an issue in the eyes of the public. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats say these choices will make Obama's team more effective, a view also held by a majority of independents. A plurality of Republicans say it will make no difference.

There is a sharp partisan divide about pushing through a large economic stimulus package. Democrats favor it 77 percent to 13 percent while Republicans oppose it 63 percent to 32 percent.

Health care is one of the issues near the top of Barack Obama's agenda, and when Americans are asked what about their top concerns, they cite access, cost, obesity and cancer in that order, according to a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 13-16.

First-term Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss holds a 53 percent to 46 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Martin), a former state representative, as Georgia voters go to the polls for Tuesday's runoff election, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Nov. 29-30. Only 1 percent is undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 points.

PPP says Chambliss is leading 71 percent to 28 percent among whites meaning that for Martin to offset that with his 88 percent to 11 percent advantage among blacks, black turnout would have to be 34 percent. On election day, with Barack Obama on the ticket, black turnout was 30 percent.

An earlier poll by Research 2000 survey conducted Nov. 23-25 had Chambliss leading 52 percent to 46 percent.