Obama Leads in Final Pre-Election Polls

November 3, 2008 2:12 PM | | Comments (3)

Here's what some of the last national polls of the campaign are saying:

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Nov. 1-2. The margin of error is 3 points. Among all registered voters, Obam's lead is 48 percent to 43 percent. The last Fox poll in late October put Obama's lead at only 3 points.

Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring neither or someone else and 3 percent undecided in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 3`1 - Nov.2. The margin of error is 2 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 53 percent to 40 percent.

Gallup says: "The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign."

The final Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Nov. 1-2 had Obama leading 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.

"The poll shows some slight movement for McCain. But with just 48 hours left, it's going to be a challenge to make up the rest of the difference," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the survey with Democrat Peter D. Hart.

Obama holds a 49 percent to 42 percent lead over McCain among likely voters in a Pew Research Center survey conducted Oct. 29 - Nov. 1. One percent each favored Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent were undecided. While Obama's margin is still significant, he had led by 15 percent in the Pew poll conducted Oct. 23-26. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 50 percent to 39 percent compared to 52 percent to 36 percent in the previous survey.

Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in the final CNN/Opinion Research poll before Election Day. The poll was conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

In weighing the results between likely voters and registered voters, it is worth quoting Washington Post poll director Jon Cohen who wrote in the paper today: "One of the trickiest parts of political polling is determining which of the people interviewed in pre-election surveys will really vote. It's relatively easy for us to identify such sharply delineated groups as the population of all adults living in the United States or even all registered voters, but the pool of actual voters is a group that exists at a single point in time, on Election Day (plus those casting ballots early and by mail). Even a few days away from an election, that group remains an unknown population. Not everyone who says that they will vote will actually do so, in part because when asked about their intentions, people want to sound like good citizens."

Two previous polls had shown Obama's lead narrowing. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 16-20 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 44 percent to 43 of likely voters, but that margin was 5 points among registered voters. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted Oct. 28-29 had Obama leading 47 percent to 44 percent, a drop of 4 points from the previous poll.

More from CQ Politics

Categories: CNN/Opinion Research, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Pew Research Center, Presidential, USA Today/Gallup, Wall Street Journal/NBC News

Tags: Obama McCain

    Comments

  1. I would urge my fellow citizens to support Senator
    Barack Obama for President on November 4, 2008.
    I believe that Obama offers our nation the sound
    judgement that will guide us during this economic
    crisis. I believe that Obama will offer us a winning
    strategy against terrorism and lead our military in their
    mission in both Iraq and Afganistan. I trust Obama
    to lower taxes for the middle class. I trust Obama
    to provide health care services for most Americans.
    I share Obama's values on sanctity of life and limited
    government in the life issues. I trust Obama to honor
    and protect Our Constitution. Respect International Law and end Torture. During the election his ethical conduct of speaking to the issues and not attacking
    his opposition in a personal way is also noted. I am
    a white male, 55 years old and for the first time in my life i see in Obama a person worthy of my respect and
    passion runing for public office. I commend Obama and Biden to my fellow citizens. Vote for Senator Obama and every democrat you can find on your ballot
    no matter what state you live in. This is the change we
    need and can believe in and trust. Do not trust FOX..
    CNN or even MSNBC check out public tv.

    Posted by: jimturturro Author Profile Page | November 2, 2008 8:31 PM

  2. My name is Kelly Morris. I am 24 years old and I am a combat veteran of both Iraq and Afghanistan. I have served for 5 years in the United States Army and recieved an honorable discharge in August of 2008. I originally signed up for 4 years active, however I was "stop-lossed" for another year to finish my last tour of 15 months in Ramadi, Iraq. I was proud to serve my nation and had no problem with being told to stay in for the needs of my Country for another year. Now that I have finally come home I see how the economy is and I am hearing constantly about how Barack Obama is going to "change" it. I hear constantly about how so many people think that our armed forces should "pull out" of Iraq and Afghanistan. And I find that to be so ironic and heart breaking. I have actually heard people try to act as if they feel SORRY for soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen who "have" to be deployed over there. WE CHOSE TO!!! We BELIEVE in what we are doing and I have seen FIRST HAND the improvements we have made for those people over there. We are helping hundreds of thousands of people who cannot help themselves. And those people who are crying to "pull out" weren't crying that on September 12 2001!!! No no no! We were crying out to DO something about being attacked! Well guess what....WE DID!!! I find it DISRESPECTFUL to see and hear a US Senator tell me that we should not be there anymore. DISRESPECTFUL to the thousands of American Men and Women who GAVE THEIR LIVES for this. How can he know what sacrifice and duty and honor is IF HE NEVER SERVED IN THE MILITARY IN THE FIRST PLACE?!?!?! NO SIR! I stand for what I believe in. Don't you DARE give me nor any other service member your PITY Senator Obama. I would much rather you go back to your cocaine and marajuana using days in college. Leave the Presidency to a MAN who is not afraid to SHOW his support to his country! Leave the Presidency to a MAN who is willing enough to Lead From the FRONT! So I URGE my fellow Americans to vote for Senator John McCain!

    Posted by: kmorris141 Author Profile Page | November 3, 2008 4:44 PM

  3. My name is Kelly Morris. I am 24 years old and I am a combat veteran of both Iraq and Afghanistan. I have served for 5 years in the United States Army and recieved an honorable discharge in August of 2008. I originally signed up for 4 years active, however I was "stop-lossed" for another year to finish my last tour of 15 months in Ramadi, Iraq. I was proud to serve my nation and had no problem with being told to stay in for the needs of my Country for another year. Now that I have finally come home I see how the economy is and I am hearing constantly about how Barack Obama is going to "change" it. I hear constantly about how so many people think that our armed forces should "pull out" of Iraq and Afghanistan. And I find that to be so ironic and heart breaking. I have actually heard people try to act as if they feel SORRY for soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen who "have" to be deployed over there. WE CHOSE TO!!! We BELIEVE in what we are doing and I have seen FIRST HAND the improvements we have made for those people over there. We are helping hundreds of thousands of people who cannot help themselves. And those people who are crying to "pull out" weren't crying that on September 12 2001!!! No no no! We were crying out to DO something about being attacked! Well guess what....WE DID!!! I find it DISRESPECTFUL to see and hear a US Senator tell me that we should not be there anymore. DISRESPECTFUL to the thousands of American Men and Women who GAVE THEIR LIVES for this. How can he know what sacrifice and duty and honor is IF HE NEVER SERVED IN THE MILITARY IN THE FIRST PLACE?!?!?! NO SIR! I stand for what I believe in. Don't you DARE give me nor any other service member your PITY Senator Obama. I would much rather you go back to your cocaine and marajuana using days in college. Leave the Presidency to a MAN who is not afraid to SHOW his support to his country! Leave the Presidency to a MAN who is willing enough to Lead From the FRONT! So I URGE my fellow Americans to vote for Senator John McCain!

    Posted by: kmorris141 Author Profile Page | November 3, 2008 4:45 PM

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