Poll Tracker

Alabama: McCain is leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. McCain leads Obama 76 percent to 21 percent among whites (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 82 percent to 16 percent among blacks (22 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent undecided. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Alaska: This latest survey seems way out of whack with the pollsters, but Hays Research Group has McCain leading Obama by only 48.3 percent to 44.6 percent (if leaners are counted) with 5.1 percent expressing no opinion in a poll conducted Nov. 2. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. While 49.1 percent of voters said the presidential campaign has not changed their opinion of Sarah Palin, 37 percent now view her more negatively compared to 11.3 percent who view her positively. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had McCain ahead 57 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 63 percent to 37 percent while Obama was viewed unfavorably by 52 percent to 48 percent. An Ivan Moore poll conducted Oct. 17-19 had McCain ahead 53 percent to 42 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had led by 17 points at the beginning of the month. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

Arizona: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 46 percent among likely voters with 1 percent saying "neither" and 1 percent expressing no opinion in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error is 3.5 points. Among all registered voters, Obama's margin is 52 percent to 45 percent. An NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 27-28 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. A Cronkite/Eight poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had McCain ahead 46 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Voters thought by 62 percent to 20 percent that Obama would win the election. The poll found that supporters of both men were highly committed and unlikely to change their votes and the remaining undecided vote was low, so a lot will hang on which campaign does the better job turning out its supporters. "Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals," the poll said. A Northern Arizona University/University of Washington poll conducted Oct. 18-27 had McCain leading 49 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Leans Republican.

Arkansas: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 28-31. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain has a 60 percent to 36 percent lead among whites who comprise 84 percent of the sample, while Obama leads 88 percent to 7 percent among blacks, who make up 16 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 37 percent while Obama was seen unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Voters trust McCain more on the economy by 9 points and on national security by 23 points. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 21-22 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's party support was only 72 percent compared to 89 percent for McCain among Republicans and McCain was leading by 23 points among independents. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Republican Favored.

California: Obama is leading McCain 55 percent to 33 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent expressing no opinion in a Field Poll conducted Oct. 18-28. Field says that if Obama's lead holds, it would represent the biggest winning margin of any presidential candidate in the state since World War 2, including Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25 had Obama ahead 61 percent to 34 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 67 percent to 30 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 54 percent and favorably by 44 percent. A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted Oct. 12-19 had Obama leading 56 percent to 33 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

Colorado: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent in a NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30.Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.2 points. Sixty-five percent of voters said they had already cast ballots and Obama led 58 percent to 41 percent among them. Obama led 60 percent to 36 percent among independents (19 percent of the sample) and 65 percent to 33 percent among Hispanics (13 percent of the sample). A Marist University poll conducted Oct. 27-28 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Among all registered voters, Obama's margin was 53 percent to 42 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 40 percent and McCain's was 51 percent to 44 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters with 3 percent undecided. Voters trust Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 9 points and is statistically tied with McCain on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters say Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 16 points and they say Obama more than McCain has the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 9 points. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. Leans Democratic.

Connecticut: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Safe Democrat.

Delaware: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 10. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 37 percent in Joseph Biden's home state with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

Florida: Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 27 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.3 percent. Fifty-four percent cite the economy as the most important issue and they favor Obama by 6 points. Voters say by 58 percent to 27 percent that criticism McCain will follow Bush's policies too closely hurts him more than criticism of his selection of Sarah Palin. "The gender gap is what is keeping Sen. Obama slightly ahead in Florida. He is winning women by barely more than Sen. McCain is winning men. One potentially favorable omen for Sen. McCain's potential to pull ahead is that Florida voters view him a tad more favorably and a little bit less unfavorably than they do Sen. Obama," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. A Public Policy Polling Survey conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 has Obama ahead 50 percent to 48 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.4 percent. Obama's bare advantage is helped by 21 point lead among independents and 13 point lead among Hispanics. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 29-30 had Obama statistically tied with McCain, leading him 47 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain's best hope, said polling director Brad Coker, may be the fact that the 7 percent of voters who remain undecided are overwhelmingly white -- and could decide to vote against Obama becoming America's first African-American president. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 29-31 had Obama leading 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 had Obama leading 45 percent to 44 percent among registered voters with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 8 points while McCain led by 4 points on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters said Obama better understood their needs and priorities by 14 points and they said Obama more than McCain has the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 8 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 47 percent. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 48 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. PPP says Obama is polling just short of 30 percent with white voters, "a threshold he would like to cross if he were to get over the top in the state." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 has McCain ahead 52 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 47 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 30 has McCain ahead 52 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 43 percent while Obama's is 50 percent to 49 percent. Voters trust McCain more than Obama by 7 points on the economy and by 12 points on national security, gains for him on both those issues since the last poll. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22 has McCain ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 37 percent while Obama's is 48 percent to 39 percent. McCain leads by 3 points on who voters think would better handle the economy and by 14 points on who would best handle Iraq. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Leans Republican.

Hawaii: In the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll published Nov. 2. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 61.2 percent to 31.6 percent with 1.6 percent choosing "other" and 4.2 percent undecided. Voters here believed that Obama could better bring about change by more than 3-to-1. But they regarded McCain as more experienced by 66.8 percent to 24.1 percent. A Chicago Tribune poll conducted Oct. 16-18 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 32 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

Indiana: Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 49 percent to 48 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31- Nov. 2. The margin of error is 1.9 percent. Obama is being helped by a 17 percent lead among independents who make up about a fifth of the sample. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 28-31 had McCain and Obama tied at 48 percent each with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama led among independents (26 percent of the sample) by 8 points. McCain was 10 points ahead among men and Obama is 10 points ahead among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 27-29 for the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics had McCain and Obama tied at 47 percent each with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.3 percent. Voters favored Obama on the issue of the economy by 8 points, and by wide margins on the environment, health care, Iraq and education. McCain led by wide margins on terrorism and immigration. However, after the economy, cited as the top issue by 58 percent, and terrorism, cited by 10 percent, all other issues were in the single digits. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's were 49 percent to 48 percent. Voters trusted McCain more to handle the economy by 3 points and national security by 14 points. An Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll conducted Oct. 26-28 has Obama statistically tied with McCain at 45.9 percent to 45.3 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. One in five voters say they could still change their minds. Obama is getting more than twice as much support as McCain among the 525,000 new voters signed up since 2006. Mccain leads among white voters as does Obama among blacks, and pollster Ann Selzer says, "This race is really in the hands of your African-American community." A Howey/Gauge poll conducted Oct. 23-24 had McCain leading Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. This poll said 32 percent of voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the state's primary were supporting McCain. McCain led among white voters by 53 percent to 39 percent and Howey/Gauge says if "Obama can bring his white voter support up into the mid-40s, it could be a path to victory." A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had McCain ahead 50.2 percent to 44 percent with 5.8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. McCain had a 15 point lead among independents. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. No Clear Favorite.

Iowa: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 37 percent among likely voters with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 6 percent undecided in a Des Moines Register poll conducted Oct. 28-31. The margin of error is 3.4 points. Obama has increased his lead among independents in this poll from 13 points in September to 17 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 28-29 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 9 percent. Obama led 61 percent to 34 percent among women and by solid margins in every age group. A Marist University poll conducted Oct. 23--24 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 50 percent to 42 percent. A Research 2000 poll conduced Oct. 19-22 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 points. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 20 points and to cut taxes by 7 points. Obama led among independents by 21 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 23 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 44 percent while McCain's was 51 percent to 48 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 8 points and McCain more on Iraq by 8 points. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Democrat Favored.

Kansas: McCain is leading 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads in all age and gender groups, but Obama leads by 7 points among independents who make up 21 percent of the sample. That said, McCain has 83 percent support among Republicans who comprise 47 percent of the sample while Obama gets 76 percent among Democrats, who represent 32 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13 had McCain holding a double-digit lead here but one that was down 7 points from mid-September. He was ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 65 percent to 33 percent while Obama was viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Forty-nine percent of Kansas say McCain was more in tune with the needs of the state compared to 36 percent for Obama. Voters trusted McCain more to solve the current economic crisis by 51 percent to 38 percent. On general management of the economy, voters favored McCain 53 percent to 41 percent. They trusted McCain more by 60 percent to 34 percent on national security issues. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

Kentucky: McCain is leading Obama 56 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 29 - Nov. 1. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain has big leads among men and white voters. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21 had McCain leading 55 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 64 percent to 35 percent, while Obama was viewed unfavorably by 54 percent and favorably by 45 percent. Voters here trusted McCain more on the issues of the economy and national security by double-digit figures. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

Louisiana: McCain is leading Obama 50.6 percent to 38.3 percent with 1.7 percent preferring someone else and 9.5 percent undecided or refusing to answer in a Southeastern Louisian University poll conducted Oct. 20-23. The margin of error is 4.46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21 had McCain ahead 57 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorability rating topped Obama's 64 percent to 45 percent, and voters trusted him more than Obama on both economic and national security issues. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

Maine: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Nov. 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 63 percent to 36 percent while McCain's are 52 percent to 45 percent. A Critical Insights poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 35 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.7 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-20 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Last month, Obama led by 5 points in this poll. He had a 23 point lead among women voters and a 15 point advantage among younger voters who make up 19 percent of the sample. McCain led by 16 among voters over 65 who made up 20 percent of the sample. Obama led by 10 points among independents. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

Maryland: Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Massachusetts: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

Michigan Obama is leading McCain 55 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Obama is statistically tied with McCain among white voters so gets a huge advantage from his 90 percent to 10 percent lead among blacks who make up 14 percent of the sample. Obama is pulling in 13 percent of Republican voters compared to McCain's 8 percent among Democrats and he leads by 13 points with independents. An EPIC-MRA poll conducted Oct. 26-28 has Obama ahead 50 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. The Detroit News, which commissioned the poll, said "Not only does Obama hold a large lead, buoyed by McCain's early-October withdrawal of staff and advertising, but voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for Congress, state House and local offices." A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had Obama leading 53 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's was 53 percent to 46 percent. Voters trusted Obama more than McCain to handle the economy by 13 points and McCain led by 1 point on national security issues. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 58.1 percent to 35.8 percent with .9 percent preferring someone else and 3.3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 67.4 percent to 30.2 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 49.8 percent and favorably by 47.2 percent. Voters believed that Obama, more than McCain can bring about change by 67.4 percent to 23.4 percent. They saw McCain as the more experienced by 69 percent to 22.7 percent. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Democrat Favored.

Minnesota: A new SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1. is at big odds with some other recent surveys. It has Obama leading McCain by only 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama has double-digit leads among women and voters under 34 and a 5 point lead among independents. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-2 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama had a 19 point lead among independents and led among both men and women and in every age group. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. Seventeen percent of people who voted for George Bush in 2004 planned to vote for Obama. Obama had an 18 point lead among independents who made up 29 percent of the sample. A Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll conducted Oct. 24-28 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent undecided or unknown. The margin of error was 4.25 points. "There's really no evidence here that McCain has been able to overcome the basic hurdles that he started the campaign with which is that the economy is working for Barack Obama," said University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs. "The financial crisis played just into the Obama strategy that the country is headed in the wrong direction. That's a view shared by more than eight out of 10 Minnesota voters. That's breaking decisively for Obama." Obama has a large lead among independents and a 33 point lead among voters earning less than $50,000 which suggests that McCain's "Joe the Plumber" appeal has not worked. An NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 27-28 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 46 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 9 points and the two are even on national security. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 57.3 percent to 37.9 percent with 1.4 percent choosing "other" and 2.3 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 67.4 percent to 30.5 percent while McCain was seen unfavorably by 49.2 percent and favorably by 47.3 percent. Voters believed that Obama was the better candidate to bring about change by 63.1 percent to 26.5 percent. They said McCain was the more experienced by 72.9 percent to 18.7 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Democrat Favored.

Mississippi: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 41 percent while Obama is seen unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Voters trust McCain more than Obama on the economy by 8 points and by 11 points on national security. McCain has a huge 70 percent to 17 percent lead among unaffiliated voters. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain led among white voters (62 percent of the sample) by 78 percent to 15 percent while Obama led among black (37 percentof the sample) 82 percent to 4 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

Missouri: McCain and Obama are tied at 48 percent each with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain is leading by 10 points among independents who make up 25 percent of the sample. He leads by 10 points among white voters (87 percent of the sample) while Obama leads by 72 points among blacks (10 percent of the sample). A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 had Obama ahead by a bare 49.4 percent to 48.6 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. "There's nowhere we've found a closer race than Missouri," says PPP's Dean Debnam. Obama is offsetting a 12 point deficit among white voters (83.4 percent of the sample) with his 93 percent to 7 percent lead among blacks (13.3 percent among blacks). The two are tied among independents. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 46 percent. An [InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll) conducted Oct. 29 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 47 percent. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery said Obama was taking a lower-than-usual percentage of black voters - 65 percent. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had Obama ahead 48.2 percent to 45.7 percent with 6.2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. McCain led by 11 and 10 points respectively among white voters and those over 65 while Obama led by 12 points among independents. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 26 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 47 percent, with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. That's a gain of 4 points from McCain since last week. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 47 percent while McCain's is 57 percent to 40 percent.. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 2 points, down from 7 points last week, and McCain on national security by 11 points, up from 7 points last week. The two are essentially tied among unaffiliated voters among whom Obama last week had a 14 point lead. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. No Clear Favorite.

Montana: Obama is statistically-tied with McCain at 48 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent for Ron Paul and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31 -Nov. 2. The margin of error is 1.9 percent. Paul is drawing equally from Democrats and Republicans, getting 2 percent from each and 9 percent from independents. Obama has an 8 point lead among independents and 7 points with voters under 30. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 45 percent while Obama was seen unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 49 percent. The two were statistically tied on who voters trusted more to handle the economy while McCain led by 6 points on national security. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll published Oct. 28 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. No Clear Favorite.

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

Nevada: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Seventy-one percent of voters say they have voted at an early voting site or cast an absentee ballot, and Obama leads by 14 points among them. "The lead Obama has been able to build up among early voters in the state is virtually insurmountable," said PPP's Dean Debnam. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 43 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent saying "neither" and 1 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 4 point. Among all registered voters, Obama's margin was 52 percent to 45 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Nevadans trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 16 points and by 13 points on managing the financial crisis. They named Obama by 20 points over McCain as the candidate who understood how the financial crisis was affecting Americans. They gave Obama a 4 point edge on national security issues. Fifty-one percent said Obama has kept his pledge to run a positive campaign 72 percent said McCain has not. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 48 percent while McCain's was 53 percent to 45 percent. The two are statistically tied on who voters trusted more on the economy and McCain led by 10 points on national security issues. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had Obama ahead 48.2 percent to 44 percent with 7.8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. Obama led by 10 points among women and 14 points among independents while McCain had leads of 10 points and 11 points respectively among white voters and those over 65. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Hampshire: Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided in a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct.30 has Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 58 percent to 41 percent while McCain's are 52 percent to 44 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 5 points and McCain on national security by 3 points. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 27-29 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's strength comes from his big advantage among women where he led McCain 60 percent to 35 percent. "If John McCain were hoping women would rally to help him steal a victory in New Hampshire, as they did for Hillary Clinton, those hopes may be dashed," said David Paleologos, the poll's director. Obama also has a 21 point lead among independents. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to improve the economy by 22 points and to handle the financial crisis by 22 points. By 20 points, they said he better understood how the financial crisis was affecting Americans. The two were roughly tied on national security issues. Forty-six percent said Obama has kept his pledge to run a positive campaign while 71 percent said McCain has not. A WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll conducted Oct. 26-28 has Obama ahead 58 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 points. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll published Oct. 28 had Obama leading 50 percent to 39 percent. A WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll conducted Oct. 24-26 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. A Marist College poll conducted Oct. 22-23 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 38 percent while McCain's is 56 percent to 4 percent. That was a 6 point drop in the favorable column for Obama since September and a 5 point fall-off for McCain. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. Democrat Favored.

New Jersey: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 38 percent in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 26-28. Voters said by 20 points that Obama was best suited to handle the economy while favoring McCain by 3 points on national security. Sarah Palin is seen unfavorably by 54 percent of voters and favorably by 37 percent. Eleven percent said their impression of Palin changed after seeing the Tina Fey impersonation of her on Saturday Night Live. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 24-26 had Obama ahead 53 to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 54 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 48 percent to 38 percent. A Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Oct. 15-18 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 38 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Obama's lead was 19 points if the sample was registered voters. Obama had led by 8 points last month. The poll said Obama's gains came from a 16 point swing in his favor among men and his popularity with younger voters. Poll director Patrick Murray said, "At this point, it would take an October surprise of astronomical proportions to turn New Jersey from blue to red." A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 16-19 has Obama ahead 59 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

New Mexico: Obama is leading McCain 58 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. The margin of error is 2.5 points. Obama leads 66 percent to 28 percent among independents (13 percent of the sample) and 62 percent to 37 percent among Hispanics (38 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had Obama is ahead 54 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain was seen unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 49 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 11 points and by 3 points on national security. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. Democrat Favored.

New York: Obama is leading McCain 57 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 64 percent to 31 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. A Siena Research Institute poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama leading 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. In its September poll, Siena had McCain within 5 points. More than half of New Yorkers have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin. Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

North Carolina: Obama is deadlocked with McCain at 50 percent to 49 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31. - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. Obama's lead among independents has slipped from 12 points in PPP's last poll to 4 points. An Elon University poll conducted Oct. 27-30 had Obama ahead 45 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Sixty-three percent cited the economy as the top issue and they favored the Democrats by 8 points. Forty-nine percent blamed the Republicans for the current state of the economy. They said Obama would do a better job managing the economy than McCain by 10 points. An InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll conducted Oct. 29 had Obama and McCain tied at 48 percent each with 3 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 50 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 46 percent while McCain's was 56 percent to 43 percent. The two were statistically tied on who voters trusted more to handle the economy while McCain had a 6 point lead when it comes to national security. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "neither." The margin of error was 4 points. Among all registered voters, Obama's margin was 50 percent to 47 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 had Obama leading 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 9 points and was statistically tied with McCain on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters said Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 16 points and they said Obama more than McCain had the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 11 points. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to improve the economy by 6 points and to handle the financial crisis by 6 points. They said by 13 points Obama better understands how the financial crisis is affecting Americans. They gave McCain a 5 point edge on national security issues. Fifty-six percent said Obama has kept his pledge to run a positive campaign while 61 percent said McCain has not. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll published Oct. 28 had Obama and McCain are tied at 47 percent. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had Obama ahead 49.7 percent to 46.4 percent with 3.9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. Independents favored Obama by 21 points. McCain led by 27 points among whites so "African-American turnout may decide who squeaks by," Zogby said. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. No Clear Favorite.

North Dakota: What is going on in this traditional Republican stronghold? McCain is tied with Obama at 45 percent each with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. Obama leads by 7 points among independents who comprise 30 percent of the sample. A Minnesota State University survey conducted Oct. 6-8Obama is leading McCain in this traditionally Republican state by 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has eaten into McCain's once comfortable lead because of the economy, an issue on which voters favored him 49 percent to 38 percent. The poll also said, "McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans." In the state's February caucuses, Mitt Romney beat McCain and McCain barely finished ahead of Ron Paul. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. No Clear Favorite.

Ohio: Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 27 - Nov. 2. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 has Obama leading 48 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain has an 8 point edge among white voters (87 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 88 percent to 10 percent among blacks (10 percent of the sample). Obama leads by 8 points among independents. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. "Sen. Obama's Ohio lead is based on his ability to be competitive among whites, even those without college degrees. He also is keeping Sen. McCain almost 15 points below the level of support among white evangelical Christians that President Bush received four years ago," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. A University of Cincinnati poll conducted Oct. 29 - Nov. 2 had Obama leading 51.5 percent to 45.7 percent among likely voters with 2.8 percent preferring other or undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. While Obama's standing has held pretty much the same since the last PPP poll, Obama has lost ground among white voters and undecided independents. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Oct. 22-31 has Obama leading 52 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 2.1 points. Obama leads by 3-to-1 among voters casting a ballot for the first time this year. That contrasts a NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll also published Nov. 2 that had McCain is leading 47 percent to 45 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing neither, 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama led 53 percent to 43 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 41 percent among registered voters with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters trust Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 7 points and while McCain leads by 5 points on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters say Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 18 points and they say Obama more than McCain has the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 11 points. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. Leans Democratic.

Oklahoma: McCain is leading Obama 59 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. An Oklahoma City News 9 poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had McCain ahead 65.5 percent to 29.1 percent with 5.4 percent undecided. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Oregon: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 39 percent while McCain's is 55 percent to 44 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 13 points and they are statistically tied on national security. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 points. The poll said that Obama was winning more Republicans (11 percent) than McCain was with Democrats (9 percent) and that he led by 12 points among independents who make up 17 percent of the sample. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. A Riley Research poll conducted Oct. 10-20 had Obama leading 48 percent to 43 percent with 18 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.39 percent. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Safe Democrat.

Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 52 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 27 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 35 percent while McCain's is 53 percent to 42 percent. Fifty-five percent of Pennsylvanians call the economy the most important issue and they favor Obama by 13 points. Obama leads among women by 16 points and independents by 7 points. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 31 - Nov 2 has Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 41 percent while McCain's is 48 percent to 42 percent. Voters prefer Obama on the economy by 6 points and McCain as being best able to handle the war in Iraq by 11 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 1 - Nov. 2 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.5 points. PPP called this a "commanding lead" at this point. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 30 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided .The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 54 percent to 45 percent while McCain's was 55 percent to 45 percent. Obama's support among Democrats slipped from 86 percent in Rasmussen's previous survey to 75 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on economic issues by 5 points and McCain on national security by 9 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 29-31 has Obama leading 51 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain is polling slightly higher among Republicans than Obama is among Democrats (87 percent to 83 percent), but Democrats outweigh Republicans by 53 percent to 41 percent in this sample. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll conducted Oct. 27-31 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. On Oct. 27, Obama had led by 13 in this poll. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 52 percent to 35 percent while McCain is at 43 percent to 43 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 43 percent among likely voters with 1 percent saying "neither" and 1 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama's margin was 56 percent to 41 percent. An NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 27-28 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Democrat Favored.

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 28-29. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain has a 2-to-1 lead among voters over 65 who make up 17 percent of the sample. He leads 70 percent to 26 percent among whites (70 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 91 percent to 8 percent among blacks (27 percent of the sample). McCain leads by 13 points among independents (21 percent of the sample). An NBC News/Princeton Research poll conducted Oct. 25-28 had McCain ahead 53 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. A Winthrop/ETV poll conducted Sept. 28- Oct. 19 had McCain leading 55.1 percent to 34.9 percent with 1.6 percent preferring someone else and 6.6 percent undecided. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 34 percent while those seeing Obama favorably or unfavorably are tied at 49 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 22-24 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Tennessee: McCain is leading Obama 54 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

Texas: McCain is leading Obama 49.3 percent to 38 percent among registered voters with 1.3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent choosing "other" and 8.7 percent undecided in a University of Texas poll conducted Oct. 15-22. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 66 percent to 33 percent while Obama was seen unfavorably by 52 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Voters here trust McCain more by large margins both on the economy and national security. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Vermont: Obama is leading McCain 57 percent to 36 percent in a Research 2000 poll published Oct. 27. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided . The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain has rebuilt his lead among white voters (72 percent of the sample) to 17 points after seeing Obama narrow the Republican's post-convention 22 point advantage to as little as 9 points when the financial crisis hit. Obama leads 88 percent to 10 percent among blacks who make up 18 percent of the sample. A NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll published Nov. 2 has Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 44 percent. A Marist University poll conducted Oct. 26-27 had Obama leading 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Among all registered voters, Obama's margin was 49 percent to 43 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 35 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 39 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Oct. 23-27 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters trust Obama more to handle the current financial crisis by 7 points and is statistically tied with McCain on who is more prepared to lead the country. Voters say Obama better understands their needs and priorities by 16 points and they say Obama more than McCain has the personal skills and qualities to succeed as President by 9 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 23-28 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 44 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 has Obama leading 49 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters trust Obama more to improve the economy by 13 points and to handle the financial crisis by 10 points. They say by 17 points that he better understands how the financial crisis is affecting Americans. The two are roughly tied on national security issues. Fifty-four percent say Obama has kept his promise to run a positive campaign while 65 percent say McCain has not. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll had Obama leading 51 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama and McCain had the same favorable to unfavorable ratio: 55 percent to 44 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 5 points and McCain to better handle national security by 1 point. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 22-25 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points. Late last month, Obama's margin was 3 points. Obama leads by 23 points when it comes to who voters think better understand their financial problems and by 15 points in this tax-conscious state on who they trust more on tax policy. Voters are evenly split between the two on handling Iraq and terrorism. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 has Obama leading 52 percent to 44.8 percent with 3.2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 points. Obama is riding a lead of more than 20 points northern Virginia, a suburb of Washington D.C. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Some of the biggest margins in Obama's favor include a 13 point lead among women and a 26 point lead among voters under 34 (a quarter of the sample). McCain leads 53 percent to 42 percent among white voters (74 percent of the sample) but Obama leads 86 percent to 13 percent among blacks (18 percent of the sample). Obama had led by 6 in SurveyUSA's Oct. 18-19 poll. Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. A Democratic nominee has not carried this state since 1964. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democrat.

Washington State: Obama is leading McCain 55 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 39 percent while McCain's is 47 percent to 45 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 26-27 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama was running 11 points stronger than John Kerry did in 2004 and Al Gore did in 2000. A University of Washington poll conducted Oct. 18-27 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent preferring other candidates and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 22 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided . The margin of error was 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 38 percent, while McCain's was 56 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to manage the economy by 11 points and McCain had a 1 point edge when it came to Iraq and terrorism. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. Safe Democrat.

West Virginia: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 29-30. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. PPP says, "Obama was never going to have a very good chance of winning the state if he couldn't improve his standing with Democratic voters, and in this survey he leads only 65-31 with them. McCain is receiving 90 percent support from his party, and also leading 53-39 with independent voters." A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Oct. 23-26 had McCain ahead 50.3 percent to 40.4 percent with 9.3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. McCain was winning 28 percent of Democrats and led 16 points among independents. A Wesleyan College poll conducted Oct. 20-21 had McCain ahead 49.2 percent to 43.5 percent with 4.3 percent saying they would vote for neither and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 points. That was a 5 point gain for Obama since last month. Wesleyan said, "Race remains a key factor in voting preferences. Like the earlier survey, 15.2 percent of the respondents report that race is very or somewhat important in playing a part as to whom to support for President." Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Leans Republican.

Wisconsin: Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 57 percent to 45 percent. Voters believe Obama would better handle the economy by 13 points while McCain edges him by 2 points on the issue of Iraq. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 28-29 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had double-digit leads in every age group except those between 35 and 49. He led by double-digits among men and women. He had a 23 point lead among independents who made up 28 percent of the sample. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 24-26 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 52 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 47 percent to 44 percent. Obama was favored by 12 points on the issue of the economy while McCain edged him by 2 points on who would better handle Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 23 had Obama leading 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 51 percent to 48 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 7 points and McCain on national security issues by 4 points. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 20-21 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 33 percent. Both McCain and Sarah Palin were seen unfavorably, by 47 percent to 43 percent and 49 percent to 41 percent respectively. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 58 percent to 31 percent. Obama led McCain by 13 points or more on being seen as honesty and trustworthy and better understanding the problems of Americans while McCain nosed Obama by 2 points on the ability to handle unexpected crises. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Democrat Favored.

Wyoming: McCain is leading Obama 61 percent to 36 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.