Poll Tracker

Alabama: Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures 59 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-17 had Sessions ahead by 66 percent to 31 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Safe Republican."

Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has jumped out ahead of Republican Ted Stevens 49.3 percent to 42 percent (including leaners) with 7.1 percent undecided or registering no opinion in a Hays Research Group poll conducted Nov. 2. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. This is the third poll to show Begich widening his lead after Stevens' conviction on corruption charges. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had Begich ahead 58 percent to 36 and 6 percent undecided The margin of error is 4 points. Stevens is viewed unfavorably by 65 percent of voters and favorably by 34 percent. Begich's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 57 percent to 34 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll had Begich leading 52 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent for Independence Party Candidate Bob Bird and 2 percent undecided. Voters said 52 percent to 39 percent that Stevens should resign, although they also said by 52 percent that he was about as ethical as most politicians. Stevens is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent of voters while Begich is viewed favorably by 57 percent. Before the conviction, an Ivan Moore poll conducted Oct. 17-19 had Begich statistically tied with Stevens at 46 percent to 45 percent. Begich's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 31 percent, a negative swing of 7 points since early October. Stevens' favorable to unfavorable ratio was 49 percent to 41 percent, slipping 2 points. Moore said at the time that it appeared "Alaskans are giving Stevens the benefit of the doubt for now, and are reserving judgment until a verdict is read in his trial." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is leading Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 56 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. The margin of error is 2.2 percent. Udall has a 60 percent to 38 percent lead with those who have already voted and is leading by almost 2-to-1 among independents (19 percent of the sample). A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll Oct. 23-28 has Udall ahead 53 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct. 22-26 had Udall ahead 48 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16 had Udall ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 44 percent while Schaffer was seen unfavorably by 48 percent and favorably by 47 percent. The candidates ran closely among men but Udall led by 9 points among women and 25 points among unaffiliated voters. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Udall ahead 54 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 10-13 had Udall ahead 45 percent to 34 percent with 4 percent preferring other candidates and 15 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Georgia: First term Republican Saxby Chambliss is statistically-tied with Democrat Jim Martin , an Atlanta attorney and former legislator, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent for Libertarian Allen Buckley and 2 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. This race could be headed for a Dec. 2 runoff. The margin of error is 4 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oc.t 30 - Nov. 2 had Chambliss ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent for Buckly and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Buckley is drawing 6 percent from Republicans and 3 percent from Democrats. Chambliss leads by 8 points among independents. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll Oct. 23-28 that has Chambliss leading 53 percent to 44 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 30 has Chambliss ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent for Buckley and 2 percent undecided. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Chambliss' favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while Martin's is 48 percent to 47 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22 also had Chambliss in a statistical tie with Martin at 46 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent for Buckley and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite.

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch, the state's lieutenant governor, leads former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco 58 percent to 30 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. Risch is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 23 percent, while LaRocco's numbers are 42 percent respectively. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican" because of the state's strong conservative tradition.

Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 62 percent to 31 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. Twenty-eight percent of voters don't know enough about Sauerberg to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Iowa: Democrat Tom Harkin, looking for a 5th term, leads businessman Christopher Reed 57 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 23. Reed suffers, among other things, from the fact that about a quarter of the voters don't know enough about him to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 17-18 had Harkin ahead 58 percent to 34 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.

Kansas: Two-term Republican Pat Roberts appears safely ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-22 has Roberts ahead 57 percent to 35 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13 had Roberts ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. Roberts' favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 34 percent while Slattery was viewed unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 36 percent with 14 percent not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, 53 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 29 - Nov. 1. The margin of error is 4 points. McConnell leads 6 points among independents who make up 8 percent of the sample and has a 13 point advantage over Lunsford in terms of how much support each gets from his own party. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29 had McConnell ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McConnell was viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent. Lunsford's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 49 percent to 43 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had McConnell ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McConnell's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 42 percent while Lunsford was seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 45 percent. Lunsford was supported by 61 percent of voters who see the economy as the top issue. A [Louisville Courier Journal poll] conducted Oct. 27-29 had McConnell ahead 47 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.4 points. A Lexington Herald Leader/WKYT-TV poll conducted Oct. 19-21 had McConnell ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Lunsford suffered from lower party support, drawing the backing of 75 percent of Democrats (46 percent of the sample) compared to McConnell's 87 percent of Republicans (38 percent of the sample). McConnell led by 6 points among independents (16 percent of the sample). McConnell's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 48 percent to 48 percent while Lunsford's was 467 percent to 45 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, is leading Republican challenger John Kennedy 53.2 percent to 33.9 percent with 1.4 percent preferring someone else and 8.7 percent undecided in a Southeastern Louisiana university poll conducted Oct. 20-23. The margin of error is 4.46 percent. While John McCain is running about 12 points ahead of Barack Obama, his coattails" do not appear to be helping Kennedy. Kennedy has a 6point lead among white voters while Landrieu leads 83.3 percent to 7.1 percent among blacks. Landrieu leads among independents and has made what the poll calls "significant headway" with Republicans. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25 had Landrieu ahead 54 percent to 41 with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. "Leans Democratic."

Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins is leading Rep. Tom Allen 57 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Nov. 1. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Collins' favorable to unfavorable ratio is 69 percent to 30 percent while Allen's is 51 percent to 46 percent. A Critical Insights poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Collins ahead 54 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.7 percent. Collins got 85 percent support from her own party and 19 percent from Democrats while Allen drew74 percent from Democrats. Collins leads among independents by 21 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-20 had Collins ahead 54 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Collins led among independents, 32 percent of the sample, by 14 points. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Massachusetts: Democratic Sen. John Kerry leads Jeff Beatty, whose biography describes him as a Special Forces veteran, FBI special agent and CIA operations officer, by 63 percent to 31 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. Kerry is viewed favorably by 65 percent of voters while Beatty's name recognition problem is underlined by the fact that 31 percent answer "not sure" on this question. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. The margin of error is 2.5 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 had Levin ahead 61 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Minnesota: In this back-and-forth race, Republican first-termer Norm Coleman is leading Democrat Al Franken 44 percent to 39 percent with 16 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Coleman has a 13 point lead among men and 7 point lead among white voters. Barkley is drawing 15 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans which further complicates the outlook for Franken because he gets 9 points less support than Coleman does from their respective parties. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-2943 percent to 40 percent with 15 percent for Barkley and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 points. This is clearly a race where voters are trying to make up their minds between candidates they don't particularly like. Coleman is seen unfavorably by 51 percent of voters while 46 percent see him favorably. Franken is seen unfavorably by 52 percent to 45 percent. Coleman gets 89 percent support from Republicans while Franken only gets 74 percent. Barkley is drawing 13 percent of Democratic voters and 6 percent of Republicans. Coleman leads among independents with 41 percent, followed by Franken at 30 percent and Barkley at 28 percent. A Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute poll conducted Oct. 24-28 had Franken ahead 43 percent to 41 percent with 37 percent with 17 percent for Barkley and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 points. The economy almost entirely eclipsed all other issues and Franken had a 12 point advantage there. Coleman was paying the Republican price of voters' deep-seated disaffection for President Bush and his policies and had seen disapproval of his performance rise to 49 percent. Coleman's negative ad campaign was also backfiring with voters seeing him as more negative than Franken by 41 percent to 26 percent. Barkley was drawing about 15 percent of Republicans and Democrats to his banner, although this appears to hurt Coleman more because of the growth in the number of Democrats. But Barkley also hurt Franken by taking about a third of independents. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 has Franken leading 45 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent for Barkley and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama leads in every demographic group tracked in this poll and gets twice as many Republican votes (12 percent) than McCain gets from Democrats (6 percent). Obama leads by 18 points among independents who make up 29 percent of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had Coleman leading Franken 43 percent to 39 percent with 14 percent for Barkley and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Coleman's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 51 percent to 48 percent, Franken is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 47 percent and Barkley was viewed favorably by 53 percent to 33 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 16-18 had Coleman leading 41 percent to 39 percent with 18 percent for Barkley. and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 8-12 also had the race a statistical tie, with Coleman leading 39 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent for Barkley and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "No Clear Favorite."

Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, has jumped out to 54 percent to 43 percent lead over former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 27. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 36 percent while Musgrove is viewed unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Wicker has increased his lead among unaffiliated voters from 12 points in September to 66 percent to 19 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had the two statistically tied, with Wicker leading 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker had led in this poll in early September by 5 points. Wicker's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 54 percent to 42 percent while Musgrove's was 52 percent to 43 percent. Wicker led 72 percent to 24 percent among white voters (62 percent of the sample) while Musgrove led among black voters (37 percent of the sample) 83 percent to 5 percent. The pollster said "Musgrove is in better shape" than he might have been because he has in fact been able to garner that much of the white vote. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "Leans Republican."

Nebraska: Republican Mike Johanns, a former governor and Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush administration, leads Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and professor, by 52 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 30. Johanns is regarded favorably by 59 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for Kleeb. Johanns had led by 25 points in July and enjoyed a larger favorability margin over Kleeb. Johanns is hoping to succeed fellow Republican Chuck Hagel, who is retiring. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu 48 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided in a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov.2. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 28-30 had Shaheen leading 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Ken Blevens. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 31 had Shaheen ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Shaheen's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 43 percent while Sununu's is 51 percent to 46 percent. Shaheen leads by 12 points among unaffiliated voters and by 22 points among women. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct.22-26 had Shaheen leading 47 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent for Blevens and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Boston Globe poll conducted Oct. 18-22 had Shaheen ahead 49 percent to 36 with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. The Globe said Shaheen "is leading in every income level and in every age group but those 65 and older. She also leads everywhere in the state except for the more conservative areas on the Massachusetts border, where Sununu has a 2-point advantage." An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 had Shaheen ahead 42 percent with 7 percent undecided, The margin of error was 4 points. This poll did not include Blevens. Shaheen has a 20 point lead among unaffiliated voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Shaheen ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent for Blevens and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. The pollster said Blevens appeared to be drawing votes away from Sununu. Shaheen had a 17 point lead among women and statistically significant leads among all age groups except the 35 to 49 set. A CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 56 percent to 39 percent in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 26-28. By a margin of 49 percent to 40 percent, voters did not think the 84 year old Lautenberg was too old to serve another term. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 24-26 had Lautenberg ahead 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Lautenberg's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 46 percent to 40 percent. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Lautenberg ahead 55 percent to 33 percent with 11 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Lautenberg leading 51 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 had Lautenberg ahead 51 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent preferring other and 11 percent still undecided. Rasmussen noted: "Nearly one-out-of-five voters (19 percent) are not sure what they think of Zimmer, even though he has served in Congress and the state legislature and ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1996." CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall is leading Rep. Steven Pearce 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct.28-30. The margin of error is 2.5 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 28 had Udall ahead 56 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while Pearce's is 49 percent to 47 percent. This represents a modest gain for Pearce both in the horse-race and favorable numbers since Rasmussen's last poll. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 29-30 had Udall ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Udall had a modest lead among white voters but a 71 percent to 27 percent lead among Hispanics who make up 31 percent of the sample. His support among his own party was 8 points higher than Pearce has with Republicans, and he led among independents 60 percent to 34 percent. Retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici had held this seat since 1973. CQ rates this race "Democrat Favored."

North Carolina: Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is leading Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole 51 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Christopher Cole and 1 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 31- Nov. 2. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. PPP says Dole's efforts in TV ads to link Hagan to "Godless Americans" has "clearly blown up in her face." An Elon University poll conducted Oct. 27-30 had Hagan ahead 44 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. "As the economy dominates the news, it appears to be benefiting Democratic candidates," said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll. "The other side of this equation is that citizens are holding the Republicans accountable for the state of the economy." A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll Oct. 23-28 had Hagan ahead 53 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Polling Director Keating Holland said one factor that may be at work is Dole's age (72). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 29 had Hagan ahead 52 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent for Cole and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Hagan's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 42 percent while Dole was now seen unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 46 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct.22-26 had Hagan ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for Cole and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. CQ Politics rates the race as "No Clear Favorite."

Oklahoma: Two-term Republican Sen. James Inhofe leads Democratic State Sen. Andrew Rice 53 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent for independent Stephen Wallace and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept.28-29. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Oregon: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, is leading two-term Republican Gordon Smith 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 4 points. Merkley's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 48 percent to 42 percent while Smith is seen unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 42 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 had Merkley leading 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 percent. PPP said, "Merkley is continuing to expand his lead in his quest to defeat Smith ... He has a 59-37 advantage with those who have already voted and he's winning 45-39 with independents. This race has been universally headed in Merkley's direction for weeks now and it's probably too late for Smith to turn it around." A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 30 had Merkley ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Smith's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent while Merkley's is 49 percent to 48 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26 had Merkley ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent for Brownlow and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Merkley had a 16 point lead among women and a 22 point lead among voters under 34 who comprised 23 percent of the sample. Merkley led by 6 percent among independents. He drew 12 percent of Republican voters while Smith attracts 17 percent of Democrats. Brownlow takes 5 percent from the Republicans and 2 percent from the Democrats. A Riley Research poll conducted Oct.10-20 had Merkley leading 36 percent to 35 percent with 4 percent for Brownlow and 23 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.39 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Merkley ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was percent. Merkley's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 47 percent to 43 percent while Smith was seen unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 40 percent. The two ran evenly among men but Merkley had a 12 point advantage among women. The poll did not include Brownlow. CQ Politics rates this race "No Clear Favorite."

South Carolina: First term Republican Lindsey Graham leads Democrat Bob Conley, a commercial pilot, by 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided in a [Rasmussen Reports poll] conducted Sept. 18. Graham's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 38 percent and Conley's are 42 percent to 32 percent, but a full quarter of voters don't know enough about him to express an opinion. Graham is supported by 76 percent of Republicans and Conley by 67 percent of Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."

South Dakota: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson leads Republican State Rep. Joel Dykstra 60 percent to 35 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. Johnson, who has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in late 2006, is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters while the most important number Dykstra's favorability rating is the 22 percent who don't know enough to have an opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Tennessee" Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander leads Democratic challenger Robert Tuke, a lawyer, by 62 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored"

Texas: Republican John Cornyn, seeking a second term, leads Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega 41.1 percent to 32.8 percent with 4.1 percent for Libertarian Yvonne Adams-Shick and 21.3 percent undecided in a University of Texas poll conducted Oct. 15-22. The margin of error is 4.2 points. Cornyn led 55 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. This is a gain of 8 points for Cornyn. Cornyn's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 32 percent while Noriega's is 43 percent to 42 percent with 16 percent not knowing enough about him to be sure. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Cornyn leading 50 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Yvonne Adams and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. CQ Politics is rating this race "Republican Favored."

Virginia: In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a big lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, running ahead of him by 59 percent to 35 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll Oct. 23-28 had Warner ahead 63 percent to 35 percent. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Oct.22-26 had Warner ahead 58 percent to 32 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 22-25 61 percent to 31 percent. Gilmore has picked up no ground on Warner in this or other polls. CQ Politics rates the race "Safe Democratic."

West Virginia: Four term Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller is leading Republican Jay Wolfe, a former state senator who has previously run against Rockefeller and Robert Byrd, by 58 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 29-30. The margin of error is 2.1 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat".*

Wyoming: Republican Sen. John Barrasso, appointed in 2007 to fill the vacancy created by the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, is leading Democrat Nick Carter, a lawyer and former prosecutor, by 60 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican.". Two-term Republican Sen. Michael Enzi is up for re-election and he is leading Democratic challenger Chris Rothfuss, a chemical engineer, by 62 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent undecided, in the same poll. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."