Poll Tracker

Naturally, some pollsters have been feeling out his chances. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted Nov. 19-24 showed Specter leading Matthews 45 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else, and 19 percent who were undecided or didn't answer. Specter draws the support of 72 percent of Republicans, 25 percent of Democrats and 45 percent of independents. Matthews so far only gets the backing of 55 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of independents.

At this point, Matthews' favorable to unfavorable ratio mainly shows that most voters (60 percent) haven't heard enough about him. Specter is viewed favorably by 56 percent compared to 23 percent who see him unfavorably. That 19 percent say they don't know enough about a five-term incumbent seems odd. His favorability rating among fellow Republicans is 60 percent.

"Matthews has been on MSNBC wall to wall during the election season, but is a question mark for 60 percent of the voters," said Quinnipiac's Clay Richards. "Specter has been relatively invisible the past year and has a strong 56 percent favorable rating."

Earlier this month, Public Pollicy Polling said a survey of Pennsylvanians it conducted Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 gave Matthews a fighting chance. Specter led 40 percent to 27 percent with an understandably large (at this point) 33 percent undecided. In that poll too, Matthews confronted the problem of bolstering Democratic support behind a potential candidacy, since 35 percent of Democrats say they would support him and 30 percent say they would support Specter. Specter's own support among Republicans was higher than that of Matthews among Democrats, but at 50 percent for an iincumbent, it left something to be desired.

"Arlen Specter would definitely start out as the favorite if Chris Matthews challenged him," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "But this poll provides clear evidence that a Matthews candidacy is not a non-starter."

One other recent look-ahead at the 2010 Senate sweepstakes was at Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's re-election bid in Nevada against potential challenger Jon Porter, a three-term congressman who lost his 2008 bid for re-election. Despite Reid's rank in the Senate and Porter's inability to even hold on to his seat, a Research 2000 poll conducted Nov. 23-25 had Reid ahead by only 46 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent undecided.

Reid was viewed unfavorably by 57 percent of voters, including about a third of Democrats, while 39 percent approved of the job he was doing. Porter's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 40 percent to 39 percent with 21 percent having no opinion.