Poll Tracker

One measure pointed to by PPP was pre and post-convention levels of party support for McCain and Obama. Before the conventions, McCain enjoyed 87 percent of support among Republicans while Obama got 78 percent from Democrats. Obama was particularly hurting in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. PPP said on average in its battleground states McCain's lead with voters of his own party was 14 points higher than Obama, but that gap has now fallen to 3 points. McCain's advantage is still strong in North Carolina - where the margin between him and Obama was 30 points pre-convention, and still is 21 points - but it has sharply fallen elsewhere, such as in Missouri where McCain's advantage had been 22 points and now is 3 points. Other states in which McCain's edge has been significantly blunted are Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.

PPP argues that this shows McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as running mate was a mistake. She may have excited the Republican base, but that base was already unifying around McCain. PPP says, "Our polling has shown over and over again that Democratic voters really don't like Palin, and that is particularly true with female voters who might have originally supported Hillary Clinton. The Palin pick has helped to unify support for Barack Obama among folks in his party."

There has been a net shift to Obama in every one of the seven battleground states (whether he is actually leading McCain or not), most in the six and seven point range, and by 12 points in Missouri.