Obama Takes Lead, Helped by Debate, Economy and Negative Views of Palin

| | Comments (0)

Barack Obama has opened up his first significant lead since June in polling done by the Pew Research Center, running ahead of McCain 49 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided among likely voters and 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided among registered voters. The poll was conducted Sept. 27-29 and had a margin of error of 3 percent for the entire sample and 3.5 percent for registered voters.

Pew identified three factors that have helped Obama: his debate performance was judged by voters to be better than McCain's; the economy and not world conflicts or natural disasters are dominating the public's attention and they see Obama as the better choice to deal with the financial turmoil; and opinions about Sarah Palin have become increasingly negative.

  • The debate: Voters gave higher marks for doing an excellent or good job to Obama by 72 percent to 59 percent. Asked for one-word impressions of each candidate from the debate, 50 percent of those surveyed described Obama as "confident," 31 percent said "inexperienced," 31 percent said "intelligent" and 28 percent said "presidential." For McCain, 61 percent said "experienced," 38 percent said "old," 33 percent said "knowledgeable" and 26 percent said "confident." The debate did not appear to do much to sway the opinion of independents.

  • The economy: Obama has doubled his lead over McCain since the last Pew poll on the question of who would do a better job of improving economic conditions, leading him 51 percent to 33 percent. He led by 9 points earlier in the month. He also leads 46 percent to 33 percent when it comes to handling the current financial crisis.

  • Palin: Fifty-one percent of voters now say she is unqualified to be President compared to 37 percent who say she is. That's a reversal of the numbers at the beginning of September when she was judged qualified by a margin of 52 percent to 39 percent.

While McCain still inspires more confidence among voters on foreign policy and national security issues, Obama has strengthened his image, now trailing McCain by only 45 percent to 42 percent on who would show good judgment in a crisis (a gain of 12 points since August). McCain leads 49 percent to 35 percent on who is personally qualified to be President, but that's an improvement of 13 points for Obama.

Demographically, McCain leads 53 percent to 38 percent among white men, a margin 6 points less than earlier in the month, and Obama now only has a 1 point lead among white women, compared to 7 points earlier in the month. Men as a whole favor McCain 47 percent to 43 percent while Obama leads among women 54 percent to 37 percent. Obama leads by 19 points among voters under 29, by 8 among those between 30 and 49, and by 12 in the 50 to 64 age group. McCain leads by 13 among those over 65.

Pew says also, "Obama has gained among some key groups of voters, including his own partisan base and voters in battleground states. Indeed, Obama now has more overall support - and more highly committed support - among Democrats than McCain has among Republicans. But he continues to struggle among less educated white voters, white non-Hispanic Catholics, and voters ages 65 and older."

Post A Comment


(for verification only; will not be published with your comment)