The extent to which Barack Obama is doing well this year, even in the South, is due to increased support from white voters compared to Democratic performance in 2004, according to a Public Policy Polling study released Oct. 10.
PPP says while the "conventional wisdom" that Obama is benefiting from likelihood of increased turnout and strong support from black and young voters is important, a large factor in his gains come from rising concern over the economy and direction of the country that are "outweighing any trepidation white voters, particularly conservative Democrats and independents might have about choosing a black man."
The study looked at three states where PPP frequently polls: North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Here is what it found:
North Carolina
Obama gets a net gain compared to John Kerry of five points among black voters who comprise 21 percent of the electorate.
Obama cuts the deficit among white voters compared to 2004 by 13 points, although McCain still has an 18 point lead.
Virginia
Assuming a 20 percent turnout of black voters compared to 17 percent in 2004, Obama is looking at a net gain of 2 points this year.
Although he trails McCain among white voters, which PPP calculates will be 73 percent of the sample compared to 76 percent in 2004 because of increased black turnout, Obama will cut into the white vote by 16 points.
Florida
PPP sees Obama making a net gain of 2 points among black voters and also Hispanic voters, who each make up 13 percent of the sample.
Here, too, McCain currently leads among white voters but PPP predicts Obama will make a net gain of 3 points compared to 2004.
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