Poll Tracker

Alabama: McCain is leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. McCain leads Obama 76 percent to 21 percent among whites (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 82 percent to 16 percent among blacks (22 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent undecided. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Alaska: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 42 percent with 11 percent undecided in an Ivan Moore poll conducted Oct. 17-19. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain had led by 17 points at the beginning of the month. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-16 had McCain ahead 57 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 6 had McCain leading 55 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" that 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In early September, on the heels of the GOP convention, McCain's lead had shot up to 60 percent to 36 percent. He is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

Arizona: McCain leads Obama 59 percent to 38 percent in his home state with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Republican Favored.

Arkansas: McCain is leading Obama 52 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's party support is only 72 percent compared to 89 percent for McCain among Republicans and McCain is leading by 23 points among independents. A University of Arkansas poll conducted Oct. 1-21had McCain leading 49 percent to 36 percent with 15 percent undecided or refusing to answer. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22 had McCain ahead 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Leans Republican.

California: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 33 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided in a Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted Oct. 12-19. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 15-16 had Obama ahead 59 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 9 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 39 percent while McCain was seen unfavorably by 54 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

Colorado: Obama is leading McCain 52 percent to 40 percent in a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll conducted Oct. 21-23. The margin of error is 4.38 points. The poll said the biggest shift to Obama was among independents, who outnumber Republicans in the state, among whom he now leads 58 percent to 27 percent compared to his 2 point advantage in this poll in August. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 43 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 44 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 50 percent to 44 percent and McCain on national security by 51 percent to 45 percent. Voters said Obama does not have the right experience to be President by 48 percent to 43 percent and that McCain does by 66 percent to 24 percent. Rasmussen's own poll conducted Oct. 16 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 43 percent while McCain's was 51 percent to 38 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 54 percent said McCain's has been generally negative. McCain lost ground among men voters, running statistically even with Obama, while Obama led by 11 points among women. Obama leads among unaffiliated voters by 17 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14 had Obama leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent in A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Obama leading 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama ran about evenly with McCain among men but led by 16 points among women. Independents favored Obama by 9 points. Fifty-four percent of Coloradans said the economy was the most important issue and Obama led among them by 12 points while voters said by a 12 point margin that McCain better understands foreign policy. Fifty-one percent said Sarah Palin is not qualified to be vice president. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 10-13 has Obama leading 47 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. "Despite a small Obama lead, Colorado is up for grabs," said David Paleologos, the poll's director. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 8-10 had Obama ahead -52 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. While Obama ran evenly with McCain among whites, he led 71 percent to 21 percent with Hispanics (13 percent of the sample), compared to his 57 percent to 36 percent edge in this poll three weeks ago. Sarah Palin's favorable to unfavorable ratios dropped from 41 percent to 38 percent right after the GOP convention to 49 percent unfavorable to 36 percent favorable. PPP says, "The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point." The margin of error was 3.5 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. Leans Democratic.

Connecticut: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Democrat Favored.

Delaware: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 10. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 37 percent in Joseph Biden's home state with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

Florida: McCain is statistically tied with Obama at 48 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 48 percent to 42 percent. Voters said Obama would be best able to handle the economy by 10 points and, by 9 points, that McCain would best handle Iraq. A St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9 and the Miami Herald poll conducted Oct. 20-22 had Obama leading 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Obama's surge was fueled by independent voters who are now backing him by a 2-to-1 margin. About half of all voters and 6 of 10 independents said Obama had a better plan to deal with the economy and that, by 45 percent to 34 percent, he had shown the most leadership on the issue. McCain and Obama were in a dead heat among senior citizens with 11 percent still undecided. A [Quinnipiac University poll]9http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=12230 conducted Oct. 16-21 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 percent. Obama had led by 7 points in Quinnipiac's last poll here. By a 56 percent to 35 percent margin, Florida voters had a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 52 percent to 40 percent for McCain. Sarah Palin was viewed unfavorably by 43 percent and favorably by 41 percent. Sixty-one percent of Floridians named the economy as the top issue and they trusted Obama more to handle it by 51 percent to 43 percent, a margin 6 points less than at the beginning of the month. They also trusted Obama more to handle foreign policy, with him leading McCain by 6 points. Quinnipiac said one factor that pushed Obama ahead of McCain is that the number of Hillary Clinton supporters who threatened to defect had dropped significantly. Obama leads by 12 points among independents. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 20-21 had McCain ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19 also had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. The previous week, Obama led by 5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 45 percent and McCain's was 58 percent to 41 percent. The two men tied on who voters trusted on the economy, while McCain led by 14 points when it came to national security. Voters said Obama did not have the right experience to be President by 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain did by 68 percent to 20 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 16-19 also has Obama statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 47 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Obama led by 3 points in this poll three weeks ago. Both candidates are drawing less support from their own parties than in other states with Obama at 80 percent and McCain at 82 percent. Obama leads by 17 points among independents who make up 16 percent of the sample. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 22. McCain's previous lead in this poll had been 9 points. The margin of error is 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 57 percent to 42 percent while Obama is seen unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Voters trust McCain more than Obama by 3 points on the economy and 7 points on national security. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22 has McCain ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 37 percent while Obama's is 48 percent to 39 percent. McCain leads by 3 points on who voters think would better handle the economy and by 14 points on who would best handle Iraq. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain led 72 percent to 21 percent among white voters (66 percent of the sample) while Obama led among blacks (27 percent of the sample) by 91 percent to 5 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A SurveyUSA Poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had McCain ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 10 points among men and he tied Obama among women. McCain had a 69 percent to 25 percent lead among whites (67 percent of the sample) while Obama led 89 percent to 8 percent among blacks (26 percent of the sample). The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Republican Favored.

Hawaii: In the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 61.2 percent to 31.6 percent with 1.6 percent choosing "other" and 4.2 percent undecided in a Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19. Voters here believe that Obama can better bring about change by more than 3-to-1. But they regard McCain as more experienced by 66.8 percent to 24.1 percent. A Chicago Tribune poll conducted Oct. 16-18 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 32 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

Indiana: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Compared to its poll of a month ago, that puts Obama up 4 points and McCain down by 3 points. McCain leads by 13 points among men and Obama by the same margin among women. He has a 15 point lead among voters under 34 with all other age groups relatively close. Independents favor Obama by 8. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 41.5 percent with 1.4 percent preferring someone else and 3.1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 60.3 percent to 36.3 percent while McCain's was 52.7 percent to 43.7 percent. Voters believed that Obama could better bring about change than McCain by 62 percent to 26.2 percent. They said McCain is the more experienced by 73.5 percent to 16.4 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 18-19 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 points. Sixty percent of voters cited the economy as their top concern and they favored Obama by 25 points. PPP said Obama's 89 percent to 11 percent lead among black voters is "just enough to offset" McCain's 51 percent to 42 percent margin with whites. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 shows McCain leading 51 percent to 46 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. No Clear Favorite.

Iowa: Obama is leading 54 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conduced Oct. 19-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Votres trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 20 points and to cut taxes by 7 points. Obama led among independents by 21 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 23 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 44 percent while McCain's was 51 percent to 48 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 8 points and McCain more on Iraq by 8 points. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 52.4 percent to 39.1 percent with 1.8 percent preferring someone else and 5.7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 64.2 percent to 32.8 percent while McCain's was 49.1 percent to 47.3 percent. Voters believed 61.5 percent to 25 .4 percent that Obama, not McCain, could bring about change. They regarded McCain as the more experienced by 71.7 percent to 21.6 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 points. Obama led by 9 points among men, 17 points among women and in every age group except 35 to 49. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Democrat Favored.

Kansas: McCain is leading 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads in all age and gender groups, but Obama leads by 7 points among independents who make up 21 percent of the sample. That said, McCain has 83 percent support among Republicans who comprise 47 percent of the sample while Obama gets 76 percent among Democrats, who represent 32 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13 had McCain holding a double-digit lead here but one that was down 7 points from mid-September. He was ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 65 percent to 33 percent while Obama was viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Forty-nine percent of Kansas say McCain was more in tune with the needs of the state compared to 36 percent for Obama. Voters trusted McCain more to solve the current economic crisis by 51 percent to 38 percent. On general management of the economy, voters favored McCain 53 percent to 41 percent. They trusted McCain more by 60 percent to 34 percent on national security issues. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

Kentucky: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. Twelve percent of voters said the fact Obama is black made them less likely to vote for him compared to 5 percent who said it would make them more likely to do so. Eight-three percent said race didn't matter. "Let's not be naïve. Race is a factor with Obama. But is it costing him winning the state? No. There are a lot of other factors at work," said Del Ali of Research 2000. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21 points had McCain ahead Obama 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent preferring another candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-20 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led among men by 22 points and among whites by 17 points. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorability rating tops Obama's 64 percent to 45 percent, and voters trust him more than Obama on both economic and national security issues. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

Maine: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 35 percent with 9 percent undecided in a Critical Insights poll conducted Oc t. 16-19. The margin of error is 4.7 percent. ASurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-20 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Last month, Obama led by 5 points in this poll. He had a 23 point lead among women voters and a 15 point advantage among younger voters who make up 19 percent of the sample. McCain led by 16 among voters over 65 who made up 20 percent of the sample. Obama led by 10 points among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's were 55 percent to 44 percent. The two are tied when it comes to who voters trust more on the economy and McCain leads by 10 points on national security issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama has a 10 point lead among women and runs evenly with McCain among men. In a twist, McCain leads him by 8 points among voters under 34. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

Maryland: Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Massachusetts: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

Michigan Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 37 percent in an EPIC-MRA poll conducted Oct. 19-22. The margin of error is 5 points. McCain has pulled out of the state. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 58.1 percent to 35.8 percent with .9 percent preferring someone else and 3.3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 67.4 percent to 30.2 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 49.8 percent and favorably by 47.2 percent. Voters believed that Obama, more than McCain can bring about change by 67.4 percent to 23.4 percent. They saw McCain as the more experienced by 69 percent to 22.7 percent. A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama had a slight lead among men and a 28 point lead among women. Sixty-four percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and they favored Obama by 17 points, but they said by a 27 point margin that McCain better understands foreign policy. Voters judged Sarah Palin not qualified to be vice president by 47 percent to 41 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 showed Obama leading 56 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 19 points and also favored Obama by 5 points on national security issues. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Democrat Favored.

Minnesota: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 22. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Two weeks ago, Obama's lead was 7 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 29 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 48 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 12 points and the two are roughly even on national security. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 57.3 percent to 37.9 percent with 1.4 percent choosing "other" and 2.3 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 67.4 percent to 30.5 percent while McCain was seen unfavorably by 49.2 percent and favorably by 47.3 percent. Voters believed that Obama was the better candidate to bring about change by 63.1 percent to 26.5 percent. They said McCain was the more experienced by 72.9 percent to 18.7 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 16-18 showed Obama leading 50 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. One of the voter swings was among voters older than 50 among whom McCain led by 4 points just after the GOP convention and who favored Obama in this survey by 12. McCain also lost ground among independents among whom he had led by 9 points in early September and now trailed by 6 points. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted Oct. 16-17 had Obama ahead among likely voters 52 percent to 41 percent. Voters said Obama would do a better job in handling the economy, which they regarded as the top issue, by 20 points. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. Obama has a 16 percent lead among independents. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and they favored Obama 49 percent to 34 percent while McCain trumped Obama on understanding foreign policy by 58 percent to 30 percent. Voters said 47 percent to 43 percent that Sarah Palin was not qualified to be vice president. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, ""Sen. Obama's debate performance pushed him into a double-digit lead and made him competitive - but not yet the leader - among blue collar workers, white men and Catholics." Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Democrat Favored.

Mississippi: McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain leads among white voters (62 percent of the sample) by 78 percent to 15 percent while Obama leads among black (37 percentof the sample) 82 percent to 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30 had McCain's lead narrowing to 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent McCain had led by 13 points in August. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 62 percent to 35 percent while Obama's are 51 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. McCain's lead among white voters is 79 percent to 16 percent while Obama leads among blacks 98 percent to 2 percent. Unlike some other states where Sarah Palin's ratings are falling, she is seen favorably here by 64 percent. Mississippians trust McCain more both on the economy and national security. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

Missouri: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent, with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent each for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19. The margin of error is 3 points. That's a gain for Obama of 2 points from last week. Obama and McCain both have favorable to unfavorable ratios of 55 percent to 43 percent, although Obama's number of "very favorables" is 10 points higher. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 7 points and McCain on national security by 7 points. Voters say 47 percent to 46 percent that Obama does not have the right experience to be President while McCain does, by 67 percent to 23 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 17-19 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 45 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain's "Joe the Plumber" sally during the final debate and the coverage that followed made 8o percent aware of him, but only 8 percent more likely to vote for McCain. As far as voter motivation in their choices, 73 percent of Obama supporters said they were backing him because he was their preferred choice compared to 66 percent for McCain. Twenty-one percent of McCain supporters were mainly opposed to Obama while 14 percent of Obama backers chose him more because they don't want McCain. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 17 had Obama leading 52 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 56 percent to 43 percent while McCain's were 57 percent to 43 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 49 percent to 48 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 11-12 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Sixty-three percent of voters list the economy as their top concern and Obama leads 57 percent to 38 percent among them. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 5 points among men and Obama leads by 11 points among women, and in every age group except those over 65. They were tied among white voters and Obama led among blacks (10 percent of the sample) 84 percent to 11 percent. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. No Clear Favorite.

Montana: Obama is leading McCain 44.4 percent to 40.2 percent with 4.2 percent for Ron Paul 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 9.5 percent undecided in a Montana State University poll conducted Oct. 16-20. The margin of error is 5 percent. Obama is leading among independents by almost 8 points. Ron Paul is pulling 11.8 percent of his support from Republicans. A plurality of 43.4 percent of voters said McCain was running the most negative campaign and a plurality (47.6 percent) also said Obama would do the best job managing the economy. Nearly 52 percent said McCain would do the best job of managing foreign policy. A Research 200 poll conducted Oct. 15-16McCain is statistically tied with Obama 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama had an 11 point lead among independents who make up 28 percent of the sample. McCain's support among Republicans was stronger than Obama's among Democrats by 93 percent to 80 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 56 percent to 44 percent while Obama's were 50-50. Voters trust McCain more on the economy by 5 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 16 points. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. No Clear Favorite.

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

Nevada: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 46 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 46 percent while McCain's was 52 percent to 46 percent. Voters rated Obama's campaign generally positive by 39 percent to 31 percent, which was not as positive as in some other states Rasmussen had polled, while McCain's campaign was judged generally negative by 51 percent to 14 percent. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 8-9 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. This poll in August had McCain ahead by 7 points. "Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama," political scientist Mark Peplowski told the Las Vegas Review Journal. Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Hampshire: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided or preferring someone else in a Boston Globe poll conducted Oct. 18-22. The margin of error is 3.5 points. "McCain certainly has his back to the wall in New Hampshire," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll. "The economic crisis in September and October has changed the mood of voters in New Hampshire, who are now solidly backing Obama as the candidate best able to deal with economic issues." Other factors hurting McCain is that the Bush administration's unpopularity is proving to be an albatross, Sarah Palin is becoming increasingly unpopular and McCain's campaign is seen as too negative. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 23 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's was 56 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama by just 1 point and McCain led him by 10 on handling Iraq. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 17-19 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. Last month, this poll had Obama ahead by 4 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 has Obama ahead of McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is leading among independents (37 percent of the sample) by 65 percent to 29 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 22 point lead among women, and led almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who comprise 19 percent of the sample and by 17 points among voters between 50 and 64 (27 percent of the sample) while McCain led by 15 points among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). Obama led by 9 points among independents (39 percent of the sample). A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead by 8 points. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Jersey: Obama is leading McCain 55 percent to 38 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Oct. 15-18. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama's lead is 19 points if the sample is registered voters. Obama had led by 8 points last month. The poll said Obama's gains came from a 16 point swing in his favor among men and his popularity with younger voters. Poll director Patrick Murray said, "At this point, it would take an October surprise of astronomical proportions to turn New Jersey from blue to red." A Quinnipiac University poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1221&What=&strArea=;&strTime=120) conducted Oct. 16-19 has Obama ahead 59 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama leading 55 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The favorable to unfavorable ratio for both candidates was 56 percent to 42 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and on national security issues by 6 points. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 5 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

New Mexico: Obama is leading McCain 52 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. McCain leads 55 percent to 42 percent among white voters (61 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 71 percent to 26 percent among Hispanics (31 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Report poll conducted Oct. 13 has Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 54 percent to 44 percent. Thirty-five percent of voters say this year's campaign is more negatgive than most with 51 percent saying it is about the same. Forty-nine percent say Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 56 percent say McCain's has been generally negative. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. Leans Democrat.

New York: Obama is leading McCain 57 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 64 percent to 31 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. A Siena Research Institute poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama leading 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. In its September poll, Siena had McCain within 5 points. More than half of New Yorkers have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin. Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

North Carolina : McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 48 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 24. On Monday, Obama had been up by 3 points and the week before the two candidates had been tied. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 19-21 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. In the previous survey two weeks ago, they were tied. "The North Carolina poll exhibits the same gender gap and generation gap that national polls typically show," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "McCain has a slight edge among men and voters over 50 years old; Obama has a slightly bigger margin among women and younger voters." A Winthrop/ETV poll conducted Sept. 28- Oct. 19 had Obama and McCain statistically tied at 44.6 percent to 44.2 percent with 1.9 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. Voters favored Obama on the issue of economy by 9 points and on health care by 16 points. On Iraq, they favored McCain by 11 points. A [Civitas Institute poll] conducted Oct. 18-20 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Without leaners, Obama would have had a 5 point lead. "Since John McCain has begun to campaign in North Carolina, his numbers seem to be improving," said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. "He's been able to pick up two points on Obama in the past two weeks according to our polling." A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. While still statistically tied, the two had been exactly tied at 48 percent each in the last poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 44 percent while McCain's was 57 percent to 42 percent. Voters said by 63 percent to 26 percent that McCain had the right experience to be President while they said 48 percent to 44 percent that Obama does not. On the economy, voters trusted Obama more by 51 percent to 45 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 18-19 had Obama leading 55 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Obama was picking up momentum among independents (15 percent of the sample) among whom he led by 51 percent to 33 percent. He was backed by 82 percent of Democrats and PPP said if he can stay above 80 percent that "would almost certainly ensure a victory." McCain's lead among white voters (75 percent of the sample) was 55 percent to 39 percent, a margin that is not enough in view of Obama's 92 percent to 6 percent lead among blacks (21 percent of the sample). A WSOC-TV poll conducted Oct. 6-7 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 47.8 percent to 46 percent with 6.2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. However, among voters who said they were most concerned about the economy, Obama led by 59.5 percent to 31.5 percent. The favorable to unfavorable numbers for both Obama and McCain are 55 percent to 44 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. No Clear Favorite.

North Dakota: What is going on in this traditional Republican stronghold? McCain is tied with Obama at 45 percent each with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. Obama leads by 7 points among independents who comprise 30 percent of the sample. A Minnesota State University survey conducted Oct. 6-8Obama is leading McCain in this traditionally Republican state by 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has eaten into McCain's once comfortable lead because of the economy, an issue on which voters favored him 49 percent to 38 percent. The poll also said, "McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans." In the state's February caucuses, Mitt Romney beat McCain and McCain barely finished ahead of Ron Paul. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004.No Clear Favorite.

Ohio: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent undecided in an Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted Oct. 18-22. The margin of error is 3.3 percent. Obama's support has increased in this poll since it was started in September while McCain's has declined 2 points. However, the poll notes that the race is "volatile" because 11 percent of voters say they could change their minds. "It is very possible that 2008 could be a repeat of 2004, when the race for Ohio was decided by just 2 percentage points," said Eric Rademacher of the University of Cincinnati. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 21-23 has Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. PPP attributes Obama's lead to a 12 point advantage among independents, bring back into the fold supporters of Hillary Clinton, running competitively with McCain among whites while leading 89 percent to 8 percent among the 12 percent of the sample who are black, and leading by 36 percent among voters under 29 (16 percent of the sample). In stark contrast to other recent polls, McCain is leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22. The margin of error was 3 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 48 percent to 42 percent, while Obama's was 49 percent to 41 percent. Voters prefer Obama by 12 points on handling the economy and say, by 9 points, McCain would better handle Iraq. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 16-21 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 38 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. At the beginning of the month, his margin had been 8 points. Obama got a 58 percent to 33 percent favorability rating in Ohio, with 48 percent to 42 percent for McCain. Sarah Palin was viewed unfavorably by 41 percent and favorably by 37 percent. Sixty-one percent of Ohioans regarded the economy as the top campaign issue and they favored Obama by 19 points, up from 11 points in the previous poll. Obama led among independents by 13 points. Obama and McCain came out statistically even on who voters trust more on foreign policy. "To overcome Sen. Obama's lead in Ohio, Sen. McCain would have to get virtually every voter who remains undecided plus almost all of the Obama supporters who said they still might change their minds - a very small percentage possibility," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. A Big Ten Battleground poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 52.5 percent to 41 percent with 1.8 percent preferring someone else and 2.7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 60.1 percent to 36.8 percent while McCain's was 48.8 percent to 48.5 percent. Voters believed Obama could better bring about change by 63 percent to 24.8 percent. They saw McCain as more experienced by 71.1 percent to 22 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 19-21 had Obama leading 50 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. "The suburban vote in Ohio is split right down the middle, 48 percent to 48 percent," said CNN polling director Keating Holland. "That's a familiar pattern for anyone who follows Ohio politics. Four years ago, the suburbs in the Buckeye State went for George W. Bush 51 percent to 49 percent." A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Last week, it was Obama who had the 2 point lead. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 55 percent to 44 percent while Obama's were 58 percent to 42 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy but by only 48 percent to 46 percent, 3 points less than last week's margin. They trusted McCain more on national security by 52 percent to 43 percent. Fifty-one percent said Obama does not have the right experience to be President compared to 40 percent who believed he does, and McCain was judged to have the right experience by 67 percent to 22 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. Suffolk said it appeared that McCain's "Joe the Plumber" tack didn't resonate much here. Sixty-eight percent were aware that he had been made an instant star in the last presidential debate but only 6 percent said the saga of Joe made them more likely to vote for McCain. Obama also drew more enthusiasm from his supporters. Seventy-one percent said they supported him because they wanted him to be President while 10 percent said it was more a vote against McCain and 12 percent said their reason was a rejection of Bush. Forty-nine percent of McCain's supporters said it was his qualities that attracted them, 8 percent said it was Sarah Palin's and 15 percent said they were motivated by opposition to Obama. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. Leans Democratic.

Oklahoma: McCain is leading Obama 59 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. An Oklahoma City News 9 poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had McCain ahead 65.5 percent to 29.1 percent with 5.4 percent undecided. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Oregon: Obama is leading 48 percent to 43 percent with 18 percent undecided in a Riley Research poll conducted Oct. 10-20. The margin of error is 4.39 percent. A Research 200 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14 had Obama leading 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable rating was 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 50 percent to 49 percent. Fifty-one percent said Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 50 percent said McCain's has been generally negative. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama leading 57 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Democrat Favored.

Pennsylvania: The latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call daily tracking poll conducted Oct. 20-24 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 52 percent to 34 percent compared to 43 percent who saw McCain unfavorably and 41 percent who viewd him positively. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 48 percent to 39 percent, the same as McCain's. Voters preferred Obama by 9 points on handling the economy and McCain by 8 points on handling Iraq. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-22 had Obama ahead McCain 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. SurveyUSA said "There is movement to McCain among white voters, where McCain had been down 7, today is down 3." McCain led by 12 points among men while Obama had the same lead among women. Obama led by 25 points among voters 18 to 34, who make up 21 percent of the sample, and this was not offset as in some other states by a big McCain lead among seniors. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 16-19 has Obama ahead 51.9 percent to 41.5 percent with 1.2 percent choosing "other" and 3.4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 62.8 percent to 33.8 percent while McCain's is 51.5 percent to 45.3 percent. A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted Oct. 16-18 had Obama leading 48 percent to 40 percent among likely voters with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio improved to 52 percent to 34 percent, a swing of 4 points since August, while McCain, at 44 percent to 41 percent, saw his negatives increase by 7 points. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Democrat Favored.

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 55.1 percent to 34.9 percent with 1.6 percent preferring someone else and 6.6 percent undecided in a Winthrop/ETV poll conducted Sept. 28- Oct. 19. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 22-24. The margin of error is 4 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-21 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Tennessee: McCain is leading Obama 54 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 21-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Sept. 15-27 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 36 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That figure was for all adults. When the survey was limited to likely voters, McCain led by 20 points. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

Texas: McCain is leading Obama 54 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 33 percent while Obama is seen unfavorably by 52 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Voters here trust McCain more by large margins both on the economy and national security. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 5-8 had McCain leading 57 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Vermont: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 21-23. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. PPP gives these reasons for Obama's lead: he is ahead by 9 points among independents who make up 26 percent of the sample, he is holding on to Democratic votes that Republicans have sometimes siphoned off in past elections, and he is behind McCain by only 53 percent to 42 percent among white voters when he probably only needed to take 39 percent. PPP's Dean Debname syas Obama "is running away with Virginia." A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 20-21 had ahead 47 percent to 45 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 19-21 has Obama ahead 54 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama enjoys the same 10 point margin he did in CNN/Time's poll conducted Oct. 11-14. "Obama's lead in Northern Virginia is growing," said CNN polling director Keating Holland. "He now beats McCain 2-1 in the Washington suburbs." A Winthrop/ETV poll conducted Sept. 28- Oct. 19 had Obama with a bare 44.6 percent to 43.6 percent lead with 2.1 percent preferring someone else and 5.9 percent undecided. Voters favored Obama on the issue of the economy by 10 points and on health care by 20 points. On Iraq, they favored McCain by about 25 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19 had Obama leading 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. The two ran fairly evenly among men but Obama had a 14 point lead among women. Obama had a 22 point lead among voters under 34 (24 percent of the sample) while McCain led among those over 65 (16 percent of the sample) by 16 points. McCain led 54 percent to 42 percent among white voters (74 percent of the sample) while Obama had a 85 percent to 11 percent advantage among blacks (19 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16 has Obama ahead 54 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama was ahead by only 3 points a week ago, but Rasmussen said one difference is that he has been heavily outspending McCain on TV ads. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 55 percent to 44 percent. Forty-three percent of voters say Obama has been running a generally positive campaign while 54 percent say McCain has been running a negative one. Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democrat.

Washington State: Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 22. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 38 percent, while McCain's is 56 percent to 43 percent. Voters trust Obama more to manage the economy by 11 points and McCain has a 1 point edge when it came to Iraq and terrorism. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13 had Obama leading 56 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. The pollster said that Obama's lead had tripled among voters older than McCain, and doubled among voters between the two candidates' ages. Obama more than doubled his lead among women in the last three weeks from 8 points to more than 20 points. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. Democrat Favored.

West Virginia: McCain is leading Obama 49.2 percent to 43.5 percent with 4.3 percent saying they would vote for neither and 3 percent undecided in a Wesleyan College poll conducted Oct. 20-21. The margin of error is 4 points. This is a 5 point gain for Obama since last month. Wesleyan said, "Race remains a key factor in voting preferences. Like the earlier survey, 15.2 percent of the respondents report that race is very or somewhat important in playing a part as to whom to support for President." A CNN/Times/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 19-21 had McCain ahead 53 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 16-17 had McCain ahead 41 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain led Obama 44 percent to 41 percent when it came to who the voters think could better handle the economy. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 16-17 has McCain ahead 50 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Unlike most other competitive states in PPP polls where over 60 percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and is giving Obama the advantage, it is cited by 54 percent of voters here with 15 percent calling moral and family values the top issue. McCain leads 87 percent to 7 percent among them. Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Leans Republican.

Wisconsin: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 23. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 48 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 7 points and McCain on national security issues by 4 points. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 20-21 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 33 percent. Both McCain and Sarah Palin were seen unfavorably, by 47 percent to 43 percent and 49 percent to 41 percent respectively. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 58 percent to 31 percent. Obama led McCain by 13 points or more on being seen as honesty and trustworthy and better understanding the problems of Americans while McCain nosed Obama by 2 points on the ability to handle unexpected crises. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Oct. 16-19 has Obama ahead 52.9 to 40.5 percent with 3.7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 64.6 percent to 32.4 percent while McCain's is 54.5 percent to 42.5 percent. Voters believe Obama can better bring about change by 58.4 percent to 27.1 percent. They regard McCain as more experienced by 73.3 percent to 20.5 percent. Obama was ahead 51 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided in a survey for Wisconsin Public Radio conducted Oct. 9-17. The margin of error is 5 points. Obama leads McCain by 23 points on handling the economy and 19 points on fixing the problems with the nation's financial institutions. McCain leads by 13 points on national security and 4 points on Iraq, but Obama bests him by 7 points on handling an unexpected major crisis. Voters say by 56 percent to 38 percent that Sarah Palin is not prepared to be President. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. The two ran evenly among men but Obama had a 16 point lead among women. Obama also led by 16 points among independents who make up 30 percent of the sample. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 16-17 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 39 percent. Voters here believed Obama could better handle the economy by 51 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The Margin of error was 2.8 percent. Obama led by 8 points among men, 26 points among women and 16 points among independents. More than half of voters cited the economy as the biggest issues and they said 53 percent to 32 percent that Obama understood it better. They said McCain better understood foreign policy netter by 57 percent to 32 percent. Voters judged Sarah Palin as not qualified to be vice president by 47 percent to 43 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Democrat Favored.

Wyoming: Mccain is leading Obama 58 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-16 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 35 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.