Poll Tracker

Alabama: McCain is leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. McCain leads Obama 76 percent to 21 percent among whites (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 82 percent to 16 percent among blacks (22 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent undecided. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Alaska: McCain is leading 57 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-16. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 6 had McCain leading 55 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" that 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In early September, on the heels of the GOP convention, McCain's lead had shot up to 60 percent to 36 percent. He is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

Arizona: McCain leads Obama 59 percent to 38 percent in his home state with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Republican Favored.

Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Safe Republican.

California: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 15-16. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 9 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 39 percent while McCain was seen unfavorably by 54 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

Colorado: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 43 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 50 percent to 44 percent and McCain on national security by 51 percent to 45 percent. Voters say Obama does not have the right experience to be President by 48 percent to 43 percent and that McCain does by 66 percent to 24 percent. Rasmussen's own poll conducted Oct. 16 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 43 percent while McCain's was 51 percent to 38 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 54 percent said McCain's has been generally negative. McCain lost ground among men voters, running statistically even with Obama, while Obama led by 11 points among women. Obama leads among unaffiliated voters by 17 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14 had Obama leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent in A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Obama leading 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama ran about evenly with McCain among men but led by 16 points among women. Independents favored Obama by 9 points. Fifty-four percent of Coloradans said the economy was the most important issue and Obama led among them by 12 points while voters said by a 12 point margin that McCain better understands foreign policy. Fifty-one percent said Sarah Palin is not qualified to be vice president. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 10-13 has Obama leading 47 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. "Despite a small Obama lead, Colorado is up for grabs," said David Paleologos, the poll's director. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 8-10 had Obama ahead -52 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. While Obama ran evenly with McCain among whites, he led 71 percent to 21 percent with Hispanics (13 percent of the sample), compared to his 57 percent to 36 percent edge in this poll three weeks ago. Sarah Palin's favorable to unfavorable ratios dropped from 41 percent to 38 percent right after the GOP convention to 49 percent unfavorable to 36 percent favorable. PPP says, "The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point." The margin of error was 3.5 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. Leans Democratic.

Connecticut: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Democrat Favored.

Delaware: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 10. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 37 percent in Joseph Biden's home state with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

Florida: McCain is statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, Obama led by 5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 45 percent and McCain's is 58 percent to 41 percent. The two men tie on who voters trust on the economy, while McCain leads by 14 points when it comes to national security. Voters say Obama does not have the right experience to be President by 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain does by 68 percent to 20 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 16-19 also has Obama statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 47 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. Obama led by 3 points in this poll three weeks ago. Both candidates are drawing less support from their own parties than in other states with Obama at 80 percent and McCain at 82 percent. Obama leads by 17 points among independents who make up 16 percent of the sample. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 16 also had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The poll didn't find much movement among demographic groups despite the shock of the Wall Street crisis that occurred after its last poll. McCain led by 9 points among whites (75 percent of the sample) and 5 points among Hispanics (12 percent of the sample) while Obama led by 53 points among blacks (10 percent of the sample) But that had McCain still drawing 22 percent of black votes, a far higher number than polls have shown elsewhere. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 13-15 has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 4 points. Twenty-one percent of voters said McCain's attacks on Obama about his relationship to former radical William Ayers made them less likely to vote Republican and 67 percent said the issue didn't matter to them. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. the margin of error is 4 points. McCain leads 72 percent to 21 percent among white voters (66 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among blacks (27 percent of the sample) by 91 percent to 5 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A SurveyUSA Poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had McCain ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 10 points among men and he tied Obama among women. McCain had a 69 percent to 25 percent lead among whites (67 percent of the sample) while Obama led 89 percent to 8 percent among blacks (26 percent of the sample). A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 5-7 had McCain 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr in his home state, and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 50 percent to 38 percent while McCain's were 48 percent to 38 percent. The two wre statistically tied on which one voters think can better handle the economy, but McCain ledby 15 points when it comes to handling Iraq. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Republican Favored.

Hawaii: In the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 32 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Chicago Tribune poll conducted Oct. 16-18. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

Indiana: Several polls point to a tight race. Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 18-19. The margin of error is 2.6 points. Sixty percent of votres site the economy as their top concern and they favor Obama by 25 points. PPP says Obama's 89 percent to 11 percent lead among black voters is "just enough to offset" McCain's 51 percent to 42 percent margin with whites. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 shows McCain leading 51 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 3 had McCain and Obama tied at 46 percent each with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. McCain led by 8 points among men, and Obama by 8 among women. McCain led by 10 points among whites. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. Leans Republican.

Iowa: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 3.8 points. Obama leads by 9 points among men, 17 points among women and in every age group except 35 to 49. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 44 percent. Obama led by 20 points among unaffiliated voters. Voters trusted Obama 47 percent to 43 percent over McCain on handling the economy. Sixty-two percent believe that bridging the gap between rich and poor is more important to Obama than creating economic growth, while they say by a 66 percent to 11 percent margin that McCain is more concerned about growth. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Leans Democratic.

Kansas: McCain still has a double-digit lead here but it's down 7 points from mid-September in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. He's ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 65 percent to 33 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Forty-nine percent of Kansas say McCain is more in tune with the needs of the state compared to 36 percent for Obama. Voters trust McCain more to solve the current economic crisis by 51 percent to 38 percent. On general management of the economy, voters favor McCain 53 percent to 41 percent. They trust McCain more by 60 percent to 34 percent on national security issues. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

Kentucky: McCain is leading Obama 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-20. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. McCain leads among men by 22 points and among whites by 17 points. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 15-17 had McCain ahead 53 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain has a 2-to-1 lead among unaffiliated voters. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 63 percent to 35 percent while Obama was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 49 percent. Voters here trusted McCain more on the economy by 7 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 22 points. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorability rating tops Obama's 64 percent to 46 percent, and voters trust him more than Obama on both economic and national security issues. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

Maine: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 55 percent to 44 percent. The two are tied when it comes to who voters trust more on the economy and McCain leads by 10 points on national security issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama has a 10 point lead among women and runs evenly with McCain among men. In a twist, McCain leads him by 8 points among voters under 34. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

Maryland: Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Massachusetts: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

Michigan Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama has a slight lead among men and a 28 point lead among women. Sixty-four percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama by 17 points, but they say by a 27 point margin that McCain better understands foreign policy. Voters judge Sarah Palin not qualified to be vice president by 47 percent to 41 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 showed Obama leading 56 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 19 points and also favored Obama by 5 points on national security issues. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Democrat Favored.

Minnesota: Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 16-18. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. One of the voter swings has been among voters older than 50 among whom McCain led by 4 points just after the GOP convention and who now favor Obama by 12. McCain also lost ground among independents among whom he had led by 9 points in early September and now trails by 6 points. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted Oct. 16-17 had Obama ahead among likely voters 52 percent to 41 percent. Voters said Obama would do a better job in handling the economy, which they regarded as the top issue, by 20 points. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. Obama has a 16 percent lead among independents. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and they favored Obama 49 percent to 34 percent while McCain trumped Obama on understanding foreign policy by 58 percent to 30 percent. Voters said 47 percent to 43 percent that Sarah Palin was not qualified to be vice president. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, ""Sen. Obama's debate performance pushed him into a double-digit lead and made him competitive - but not yet the leader - among blue collar workers, white men and Catholics." An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 4-7 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had a 5 point lead among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 has Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 60 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 53 percent to 47 percent. Obama has a 7 point margin over McCain as far as voter trust in him on the economy and the two are statistically even on national security issues. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Democrat Favored.

Mississippi: McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain leads among white voters (62 percent of the sample) by 78 percent to 15 percent while Obama leads among black (37 percentof the sample) 82 percent to 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30 had McCain's lead narrowing to 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4.5 percent McCain had led by 13 points in August. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 62 percent to 35 percent while Obama's are 51 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. McCain's lead among white voters is 79 percent to 16 percent while Obama leads among blacks 98 percent to 2 percent. Unlike some other states where Sarah Palin's ratings are falling, she is seen favorably here by 64 percent. Mississippians trust McCain more both on the economy and national security. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

Missouri: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent, with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent each for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19. The margin of error is 3 points. That's a gain for Obama of 2 points from last week. Obama and McCain both have favorable to unfavorable ratios of 55 percent to 43 percent, although Obama's number of "very favorables" is 10 points higher. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 7 points and McCain on national security by 7 points. Voters say 47 percent to 46 percent that Obama does not have the right experience to be President while McCain does, by 67 percent to 23 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 17-19 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 45 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain's "Joe the Plumber" sally during the final debate and the coverage that followed made 8o percent aware of him, but only 8 percent more likely to vote for McCain. As far as voter motivation in their choices, 73 percent of Obama supporters said they were backing him because he was their preferred choice compared to 66 percent for McCain. Twenty-one percent of McCain supporters were mainly opposed to Obama while 14 percent of Obama backers chose him more because they don't want McCain. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 17 had Obama leading 52 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 56 percent to 43 percent while McCain's were 57 percent to 43 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 49 percent to 48 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 11-12 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Sixty-three percent of voters list the economy as their top concern and Obama leads 57 percent to 38 percent among them. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 5 points among men and Obama leads by 11 points among women, and in every age group except those over 65. They were tied among white voters and Obama led among blacks (10 percent of the sample) 84 percent to 11 percent. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. No Clear Favorite.

Montana: McCain is statistically tied with Obama 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Research 200 poll conducted Oct. 15-16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama had an 11 point lead among independents who make up 28 percent of the sample. McCain's support among Republicans was stronger than Obama's among Democrats by 93 percent to 80 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 56 percent to 44 percent while Obama's were 50-50. Voters trust McCain more on the economy by 5 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 16 points. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. Republican Favored.

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

New Mexico: Obama is leading McCain 52 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. McCain leads 55 percent to 42 percent among white voters (61 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 71 percent to 26 percent among Hispanics (31 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Report poll conducted Oct. 13 has Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 54 percent to 44 percent. Thirty-five percent of voters say this year's campaign is more negatgive than most with 51 percent saying it is about the same. Forty-nine percent say Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 56 percent say McCain's has been generally negative. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. Leans Democrat.

Nevada: Obama is leading McCain 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 46 percent while McCain's is 52 percent to 46 percent. Voters rate Obama's campaign generally positive by 39 percent to 31 percent, which is not as positive as in some other states Rasmussen has polled, while McCain's campaign is judged generally negative by 51 percent to 14 percent. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 8-9 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. This poll in August had McCain ahead by 7 points. "Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama," political scientist Mark Peplowski told the Las Vegas Review Journal. Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Hampshire: A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 17-19 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Last month, this poll had Obama ahead by 4 points. The most recent polls have Obama opening up a lead here. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 has Obama ahead of McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is leading among independents (37 percent of the sample) by 65 percent to 29 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 22 point lead among women, and led almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who comprise 19 percent of the sample and by 17 points among voters between 50 and 64 (27 percent of the sample) while McCain led by 15 points among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). Obama led by 9 points among independents (39 percent of the sample). A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead by 8 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Rasmussen said this is the first time Obama had a statistically significant lead here since July. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 60 percent to 39 percent while McCain's were 57 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and McCain more on Iraq and terrorism by 8 points. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Jersey: Obama is leading McCain 55 percent to 38 percent among likely voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Oct. 15-18. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama's lead is 19 points if the sample is registered voters. Obama had led by 8 points last month. The poll said Obama's gains came from a 16 point swing in his favor among men and his popularity with younger voters. Poll director Patrick Murray said, "At this point, it would take an October surprise of astronomical proportions to turn New Jersey from blue to red." A Quinnipiac University poll](http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1221&What=&strArea=;&strTime=120) conducted Oct. 16-19 has Obama ahead 59 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama leading 55 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The favorable to unfavorable ratio for both candidates was 56 percent to 42 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and on national security issues by 6 points. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 5 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

New York: Obama is leading McCain 57 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 64 percent to 31 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. A Siena Research Institute poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama leading 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. In its September poll, Siena had McCain within 5 points. More than half of New Yorkers have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin. Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

North Carolina: Obama is leading 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided in a [Civitas Institute poll] conducted Oct. 18-20. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Without leaners, Obama would have a 5 point lead. "Since John McCain has begun to campaign in North Carolina, his numbers seem to be improving," said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. "He's been able to pick up two points on Obama in the past two weeks according to our polling." A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. While still statistically tied, the two had been exactly tied at 48 percent each in the last poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 44 percent while McCain's was 57 percent to 42 percent. Voters said by 63 percent to 26 percent that McCain had the right experience to be President while they said 48 percent to 44 percent that Obama does not. On the economy, voters trusted Obama more by 51 percent to 45 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 18-19 had Obama leading 55 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Obama was picking up momentum among independents (15 percent of the sample) among whom he led by 51 percent to 33 percent. He was backed by 82 percent of Democrats and PPP said if he can stay above 80 percent that "would almost certainly ensure a victory." McCain's lead among white voters (75 percent of the sample) was 55 percent to 39 percent, a margin that is not enough in view of Obama's 92 percent to 6 percent lead among blacks (21 percent of the sample). A WSOC-TV poll conducted Oct. 6-7 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 47.8 percent to 46 percent with 6.2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. However, among voters who said they were most concerned about the economy, Obama led by 59.5 percent to 31.5 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 also showed a statistical tie with Obama leading 49 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The favorable to unfavorable numbers for both Obama and McCain are 55 percent to 44 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. No Clear Favorite.

North Dakota: What is going on in this traditional Republican stronghold? McCain is tied with Obama at 45 percent each with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. Obama leads by 7 points among independents who comprise 30 percent of the sample. A Minnesota State University survey conducted Oct. 6-8Obama is leading McCain in this traditionally Republican state by 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has eaten into McCain's once comfortable lead because of the economy, an issue on which voters favored him 49 percent to 38 percent. The poll also said, "McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans." In the state's February caucuses, Mitt Romney beat McCain and McCain barely finished ahead of Ron Paul. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. Safe Republican.

Ohio: McCain is statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 19. The margin of error is 3 points. Last week, it was Obama who had the 2 point lead. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 44 percent while Obama's are 58 percent to 42 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy but by only 48 percent to 46 percent, 3 points less than last week's margin. They trust McCain more on national security by 52 percent to 43 percent. Fifty-one percent say Obama does not have the right experience to be President compared to 40 percent who believe he does, and McCain is judged to have the right experience by 67 percent to 22 percent. A [Suffolk University poll(http://www.suffolk.edu/31491.html) conducted Oct. 16-19 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 42 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. Suffolk said it appeared that McCain's "Joe the Plumber" tack didn't resonate much here. Sixty-eight percent were aware that he had been made an instant star in the last presidential debate but only 6 percent said the saga of Joe made them more likely to vote for McCain. Obama also drew more enthusiasm from his supporters. Seventy-one percent said they supported him because they wanted him to be President while 10 percent said it was more a vote against McCain and 12 percent said their reason was a rejection of Bush. Forty-nine percent of McCain's supporters said it was his qualities that attracted them, 8 percent said it was Sarah Palin's and 15 percent said they were motivated by opposition to Obama. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 16-17 had McCain is statistically tied with Obama at 46 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. The two were tied at 45 percent each when it came to who voters believed could better handle the economy. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14 had Obama and McCain tied at 49 percent each with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 54 percent to 46 percent while McCain's was 57 percent to 42 percent. Forty-six percent of voters said Obama's campaign had been generally positive while 45 percent said McCain's had been generally negative. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13 has Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. McCain leads by 5 points among men while Obama leads by 15 points among women. They run evenly among whites but Obama leads 85 percent to 13 among blacks who make up 10 percent of the sample. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. Leans Democratic.

Oklahoma: McCain is leading Obama 59 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. An Oklahoma City News 9 poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had McCain ahead 65.5 percent to 29.1 percent with 5.4 percent undecided. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Oregon: Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 200 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14 had Obama leading 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable rating was 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 50 percent to 49 percent. Fifty-one percent said Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 50 percent said McCain's has been generally negative. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama leading 57 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Democrat Favored.

Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 48 percent to 40 percent among likely voters with 2 percent for Ralph Nader. 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided in a Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted Oct. 16-18. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio has improved to 52 percent to 34 percent, a swing of 4 points since August, while McCain, at 44 percent to 41 percent, has seen his negatives increase by 7 points. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll conducted Oct. 16-20 had Obama ahead McCain 53 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 34 percent while McCain was seen unfavorably by 42 percent and favorably by 38 percent. Voters approved of Obama's response to the Wall Street crisis by 43 percent to 31 percent while 47 percent disapproved of McCain's response compared to 27 percent who approved. Voters thought Obama was qualified to be President by 56 percent to 36 percent, but that Sarah Palin was not by 57 percent to 31 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-13 has Obama ahead 55 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Obama leads among women by 24 points, by 31 points among voters under 34 and 21 points among voters in the 50 to 64 age group. Obama has a 10 point lead among independents who make up 10 percent of the sample. A Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 5-8 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. The survey was of likely voters, including leaners. Obama had led by 5 points last month. He increased his lead among independents from 9 points to 19 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 65 percent to 34 percent compared to 55 percent to 43 percent for McCain. Sarah Palin was still seen favorably by half of voters but the number of those who now saw her unfavorably climbed 11 points. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Democrat Favored.

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among unaffiliated voters, but that's half the margin he had in the last Rasmussen survey. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's are 51 percent to 48 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had McCain ahead by 59 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had 96 percent of Republicans solidly in back of him while Obama had the support of 82 percent of Democrats. McCain has an 18 point lead among independents (20 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Sept. 15-27 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 36 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That figure was for all adults. When the survey was limited to likely voters, McCain led by 20 points. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

Texas: McCain is leading Obama 52 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Research 200 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. The margin of error is 4 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 5-8 had McCain leading 57 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Vermont: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The two run fairly evenly among men but Obama has a 14 point lead among women. Obama has a 22 point lead among voters under 34 (24 percent of the sample) while McCain leads among those over 65 (16 percent of the sample) by 16 points. McCain leads 54 percent to 42 percent among white voters (74 percent of the sample) while Obama has a 85 percent to 11 percent advantage among blacks (19 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16 has Obama ahead 54 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama was ahead by only 3 points a week ago, but Rasmussen said one difference is that he has been heavily outspending McCain on TV ads. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 55 percent to 44 percent. Forty-three percent of voters say Obama has been running a generally positive campaign while 54 percent say McCain has been running a negative one. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 12 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 54 percent to 45 percent while McCain's were 56 percent to 43 percent. Obama led 49 percent to 46 percent on the issue of the economy while McCain led 52 percent to 44 percent on national security issues. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 6-7 had Obama leading in this traditionally GOP state by 51 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Two factors accounted for Obama's numbers: the economy and inroads among white voters. Sixty-three percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and they favored Obama 59 percent to 36 percent. Obama had also reduced a 25 point deficit among white voters to 10 points. Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite.

Washington State: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. The pollster says that Obama's lead has tripled among voters older than McCain, and doubled among voters between the two candidates' ages. Obama has more than doubled his lead among women in the last three weeks from 8 points to more than 20 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2 had Obama leading 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 39 percent, while McCain's was 56 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to manage the economy by 9 points and he has a 2 point edge over McCain when it came to Iraq and terrorism. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. Democrat Favored.

West Virginia: McCain leads Obama 41 percent to 47 percent in a NBC/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 16-17. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent when it comes to who the voters think can better handle the economy. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 16-17 has McCain ahead 50 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Unlike most other competitive states in PPP polls where over 60 percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and is giving Obama the advantage, it is cited by 54 percent of voters here with 15 percent calling moral and family values the top issue. McCain leads 87 percent to 7 percent among them. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 4-8 suggested a turnaround for Obama. He was leading McCain 50 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. ARG's mid-September poll had McCain slightly ahead. Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Republican Favored.

Wisconsin: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The two run evenly among men but Obama has a 16 point lead among women. Obama also leads by 16 points among independents who make up 30 percent of the sample. An NBC/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 16-17 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 39 percent. Voters here believed Obama could better handle the economy by 51 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The Margin of error was 2.8 percent. Obama led by 8 points among men, 26 points among women and 16 points among independents. More than half of voters cited the economy as the biggest issues and they said 53 percent to 32 percent that Obama understood it better. They said McCain better understood foreign policy netter by 57 percent to 32 percent. Wisconsites judged Sarah Palin as not qualified to be vice president by 47 percent to 43 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 5-6Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent undecided in . The margin of error is 4 percent. That's a 4 point pickup for Obama compared to Sept. 25. Obama runs evenly with McCain among men but leads him by 20 points among women. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 57 percent to 31 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 8 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 44 percent, compared to a month ago when his margin was 2 points. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 52 percent to 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 5-6 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 16 point lead among independents who make up a quarter of the sample. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Leans Democratic.

Wyoming: Mccain is leading Obama 58 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-19. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-16 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 35 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.