Poll Tracker

Alabama: McCain is leading Obama 62 percent to 35 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. McCain leads Obama 76 percent to 21 percent among whites (75 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 82 percent to 16 percent among blacks (22 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent undecided. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Alaska: While McCain is still comfortably ahead here, the factor that gave him a big boost - his choice of Sarah Palin - appears to be wearing off. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain now leads 55 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. In early September, on the heels of the GOP convention, McCain's lead had shot up to 60 percent to 36 percent. He is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 put McCain ahead 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

Arizona: McCain leads Obama 59 percent to 38 percent in his home state with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Republican Favored.

Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Safe Republican.

California: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 9. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 39 percent while McCain is seen unfavorably by 54 percent and favorably by 46 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Obama leading McCain 55 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama had more than a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics who make up about a fifth of the sample. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

Colorado: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 47 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Obama leading 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama ran about evenly with McCain among men but led by 16 points among women. Independents favored Obama by 9 points. Fifty-four percent of Coloradans said the economy was the most important issue and Obama led among them by 12 points while voters said by a 12 point margin that McCain better understands foreign policy. Fifty-one percent said Sarah Palin is not qualified to be vice president. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 10-13 has Obama leading 47 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. "Despite a small Obama lead, Colorado is up for grabs," said David Paleologos, the poll's director. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 8-10 had Obama ahead -52 percent to 42 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. While Obama ran evenly with McCain among whites, he led 71 percent to 21 percent with Hispanics (13 percent of the sample), compared to his 57 percent to 36 percent edge in this poll three weeks ago. Sarah Palin's favorable to unfavorable ratios dropped from 41 percent to 38 percent right after the GOP convention to 49 percent unfavorable to 36 percent favorable. PPP says, "The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point." The margin of error was 3.5 percent. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. Leans Democratic.

Connecticut: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Democrat Favored.

Delaware: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 10. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 57 percent to 37 percent in Joseph Biden's home state with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

Florida: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 46 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 12 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 44 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the issue of the economy by 5 points and McCain on national security by 4 points. Rasmussen's own poll conducted Oct. 8 had Obama in a statistical tie with McCain at 50 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 43 percent compared to 56 percent to 44 percent for McCain. About half of voters said the financial rescue plan had made no difference in who they would vote for, while 28 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Obama and 21 percent said it made them more likely to vote for McCain. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 6-8 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 52 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 48 percent to 41 percent. Voters say Obama would do a better job handling the economy by 20 points while McCain would better manage Iraq by 7 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 45 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A SurveyUSA Poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had McCain ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 10 points among men and he tied Obama among women. McCain had a 69 percent to 25 percent lead among whites (67 percent of the sample) while Obama led 89 percent to 8 percent among blacks (26 percent of the sample). A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 5-7 had McCain 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr in his home state, and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 50 percent to 38 percent while McCain's were 48 percent to 38 percent. The two wre statistically tied on which one voters think can better handle the economy, but McCain ledby 15 points when it comes to handling Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 8 had McCain leading Obama 54 percent to 45 percent. McCain drew70 percent of the white vote while Obama garnered 99 percent of the black vote. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Republican Favored.

Hawaii: In the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. A Research 2000 poll reported Sept. 21 in the St. Louis Post Dispatch had Obama ahead 56 percent to 36 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

Indiana: Several polls point to a tight race. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 shows McCain leading 51 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 3 had McCain and Obama tied at 46 percent each with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. McCain led by 8 points among men, and Obama by 8 among women. McCain led by 10 points among whites. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. Leans Republican.

Iowa: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 3.8 points. Obama leads by 9 points among men, 17 points among women and in every age group except 35 to 49. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 44 percent. Obama led by 20 points among unaffiliated voters. Voters trusted Obama 47 percent to 43 percent over McCain on handling the economy. Sixty-two percent believe that bridging the gap between rich and poor is more important to Obama than creating economic growth, while they say by a 66 percent to 11 percent margin that McCain is more concerned about growth. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Leans Democratic.

Kansas: McCain still has a double-digit lead here but it's down 7 points from mid-September in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. He's ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 65 percent to 33 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 46 percent. Forty-nine percent of Kansas say McCain is more in tune with the needs of the state compared to 36 percent for Obama. Voters trust McCain more to solve the current economic crisis by 51 percent to 38 percent. On general management of the economy, voters favor McCain 53 percent to 41 percent. They trust McCain more by 60 percent to 34 percent on national security issues. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 35 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 49 percent. Voters here trust McCain more on the economy by 7 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 22 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22 had McCain leading Obama 58 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. A Research 200 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 37 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorability rating tops Obama's 64 percent to 46 percent, and voters trust him more than Obama on both economic and national security issues. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

Maine: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 55 percent to 44 percent. The two are tied when it comes to who voters trust more on the economy and McCain leads by 10 points on national security issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama has a 10 point lead among women and runs evenly with McCain among men. In a twist, McCain leads him by 8 points among voters under 34. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

Maryland: Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

Massachusetts: Obama is leading McCain 59 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 13-14. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

Michigan Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama has a slight lead among men and a 28 point lead among women. Sixty-four percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama by 17 points, but they say by a 27 point margin that McCain better understands foreign policy. Voters judge Sarah Palin not qualified to be vice president by 47 percent to 41 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 showed Obama leading 56 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 19 points and also favored Obama by 5 points on national security issues. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Democrat Favored.

Minnesota: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. Fifty-eight percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama 49 percent to 34 percent while McCain trumps Obama on understanding foreign policy by 58 percent to 30 percent. Voters say 47 percent to 43 percent that Sarah Palin is not qualified to be vice president. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, ""Sen. Obama's debate performance pushed him into a double-digit lead and made him competitive - but not yet the leader - among blue collar workers, white men and Catholics." An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 4-7 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had a 5 point lead among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 has Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 60 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 53 percent to 47 percent. Obama has a 7 point margin over McCain as far as voter trust in him on the economy and the two are statistically even on national security issues. A pair of Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute voter samplings conducted Sept. 29-Oct.1 and Oct. 3-5, before and after the vice presidential debate, saw Obama going from a 47 to 43 percent lead among likely voters to 54 percent to 40 percent. The margins of error were 5.3 percent and 4.8 percent respectively. The Humphrey Institute's Larry Jacobs said Obama shot out to this lead after passage of the financial bailout plan but also because Joseph Biden's debate performance gave the ticket a boost. In the second sampling, voters said Obama handled the financial crisis better by 14 points. About a quarter of voters said Biden's performance made them more likely to vote Democratic while Palin's pre and post debate numbers remained about the same. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Democrat Favored.

Mississippi: McCain's lead over Obama has narrowed to 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent McCain had led by 13 points in August. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 62 percent to 35 percent while Obama's are 51 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. McCain's lead among white voters is 79 percent to 16 percent while Obama leads among blacks 98 percent to 2 percent. Unlike some other states where Sarah Palin's ratings are falling, she is seen favorably here by 64 percent. Mississippians trust McCain more both on the economy and national security. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

Missouri: McCain is in a statistical tie with Obama at 49 percent to 48 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 12 had Obama leading 50 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain's was 55 percent to 44 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and McCain more on national security by 5 points. A third of voters said they would be "extremely comfortable" with Obama as President compared to 22 percent for McCain. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 11-12 has Obama ahead 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Sixty-three percent of voters list the economy as their top concern and Obama leads 57 percent to 38 percent among them. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McCain led by 5 points among men and Obama leads by 11 points among women, and in every age group except those over 65. They were tied among white voters and Obama led among blacks (10 percent of the sample) 84 percent to 11 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 4-6 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama led by 9 points among independents who made up 28 percent of the sample. McCain led among white voters (88 percent of the sample) by 15 points and Obama led by 80 points among blacks (12 percent of the sample). Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. No Clear Favorite.

Montana: McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama has an 11 point lead among independents who make up 28 percent of the sample. McCain's support among Republicans is stronger than Obama's among Democrats by 93 percent to 80 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 56 percent to 44 percent while Obama's were 50-50. Voters trust McCain more on the economy by 5 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 16 points. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. Republican Favored.

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

New Mexico: Obama is leading McCain 52 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. McCain leads 55 percent to 42 percent among white voters (61 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 71 percent to 26 percent among Hispanics (31 percent of the sample). A Rasmussen Report poll conducted Oct. 13 has Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's are 54 percent to 44 percent. Thirty-five percent of voters say this year's campaign is more negatgive than most with 51 percent saying it is about the same. Forty-nine percent say Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 56 percent say McCain's has been generally negative. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. Leans Democrat.

Nevada: Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Mason-Dixon poll conducted Oct. 8-9. The margin of error is 4 points. This poll in August had McCain ahead by 7 points. "Since that time, the undecided number has shrunk by 9 percent and pretty much the entire swing has gone to Obama," political scientist Mark Peplowski told the Las Vegas Review Journal. Unless something happens to take the focus off the dismal state of the economy, he said, he would expect the trend to continue to favor Obama. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct.2 had Obama moving ahead of McCain for the first time since July. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama led 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 47 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 46 percent. The two ran almost evenly on the question of who would better manage the economy while McCain led by 7 points on the issues of Iraq and terrorism. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Hampshire: The most recent polls have Obama opening up a lead here. An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 has Obama ahead of McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama is leading among independents (37 percent of the sample) by 65 percent to 29 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 22 point lead among women, and led almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who comprise 19 percent of the sample and by 17 points among voters between 50 and 64 (27 percent of the sample) while McCain led by 15 points among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). Obama led by 9 points among independents (39 percent of the sample). A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead by 8 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Rasmussen said this is the first time Obama had a statistically significant lead here since July. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 60 percent to 39 percent while McCain's were 57 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and McCain more on Iraq and terrorism by 8 points. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. Leans Democratic.

New Jersey: Obama is leading McCain 55 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The favorable to unfavorable ratio for both candidates was 56 percent to 42 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and on national security issues by 6 points. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 5 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

New York: Obama is leading McCain 57 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama ahead 64 percent to 31 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. A Siena Research Institute poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama leading 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. In its September poll, Siena had McCain within 5 points. More than half of New Yorkers have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin. Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

North Carolina: Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 11-12. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Obama had led by 6 points in this poll last week. The number of voters who cite the economy as the top issue in the campaign has hit 65 percent and they favor Obama by 59 percent to 36 percent. What PPP describes as the "increasingly negative tone" of McCain's campaign has cut both ways: Obama widened his lead among independents from 6 points to 52 percent to 37 percent, while it has helped McCain shore up his base and attract some conservative Democrats. "With both campaigns contesting strongly here, North Carolina looks like it will be one of the closest states in the country on election night," said PPP's Dean Debnam. A Fox News/Rasmussen poll conducted Oct. 12 had both men tied at 48 percent with 1 percent for Barr and 2 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 45 percent while McCain's is 57 percent to 41 percent. Voters said they trusted McCain more than Obama by 51 percent to 43 percent. McCain and Obama run about evenly in voter judgment when it comes to the economy, but favor McCain by 9 points on national security issues. A WSOC-TV poll conducted Oct. 6-7 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 47.8 percent to 46 percent with 6.2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. However, among voters who said they were most concerned about the economy, Obama led by 59.5 percent to 31.5 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 also showed a statistical tie with Obama leading 49 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The favorable to unfavorable numbers for both Obama and McCain are 55 percent to 44 percent. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Oct. 6-8 has Obama leading 48 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. "The amount of money Obama is spending on television in North Carolina is finally paying dividends," said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. "Obama's ability to capitalize on the financial crisis and to outspend McCain in North Carolina gives him a strong advantage." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 5-6 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain had a 7 point lead among men and a 61 percent to 33 percent margin among whites, who made up 76 percent of the sample. Obama led 92 percent to 7 percent among blacks who comprised 20 percent of the sample. Obama also led by 12 points among independents who made up 18 percent of the sample. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. No Clear Favorite.

North Dakota: Obama is leading McCain in this traditionally Republican state by 45 percent to 43 percent in a Minnesota State University survey conducted Oct. 6-8. Obama has eaten into McCain's once comfortable lead because of the economy, an issue on which voters favor him 49 percent to 38 percent. The poll also said, "McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans." In the state's February caucuses, Mitt Romney beat McCain and McCain barely finished ahead of Ron Paul. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. Safe Republican.

Ohio: Obama and McCain are tied at 49 percent each with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 46 percent while McCain's is 57 percent to 42 percent. Forty-six percent of voters say Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 45 percent say McCain's has been generally negative. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 12 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 46 percent compared to 55 percent to 44 percent for McCain. Obama had a 5 point edge over McCain on who voters trusted more on the economy, while McCain led Obama by 9 points on national security issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13 has Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. McCain leads by 5 points among men while Obama leads by 15 points among women. They run evenly among whites but Obama leads 85 percent to 13 among blacks who make up 10 percent of the sample. A Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 5-8 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. The survey included likely voters and leaners. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 60 percent to 37 percent while McCain's were 54 percent to 44 percent. While Sarah Palin was still seen favorably by a majority of voters, the number who saw her unfavorably has risen by 10 points since last month. An Ohio Newspaper Poll, released Oct. 11 had McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 46 percent with 16 percent saying they are undecided or might change their mind before election day .The margin of error was 3 points. Voters favored Obama over McCain on the issue of the economy by 47 percent to 44 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 6-8 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 51 percent to 38 percent compared to 47 percent to 41 percent for McCain. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 22 points and McCain more on Iraq by 7 points. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. Leans Democratic.

Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 65.5 percent to 29.1 percent with 5.4 percent undecided in an Oklahoma City News 9 poll conducted Oct. 4-5. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 28-29 had McCain ahead64 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-18 had McCain ahead 61 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided in. the margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

Oregon: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable rating is 57 percent to 42 percent while McCain's is 50 percent to 49 percent. Fifty-one percent say Obama's campaign has been generally positive while 50 percent say McCain's has been generally negative. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Obama leading 57 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Democrat Favored.

Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll conducted Oct. 9-13. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 52 percent to 33 percent while McCain is seen unfavorably by 44 percent and favorably by 36 percent. Voters approved of Obama's response to the Wall Street crisis by 43 percent to 31 percent while 47 percent disapproved of McCain's response compared to 27 percent who approved. Voters think Obama is qualified to be President by 56 percent to 36 percent, but that Sarah Palin is not by 57 percent to 31 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-13 has Obama ahead 55 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Obama leads among women by 24 points, by 31 points among voters under 34 and 21 points among voters in the 50 to 64 age group. Obama has a 10 point lead among independents who make up 10 percent of the sample. A Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 5-8 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. The survey was of likely voters, including leaners. Obama had led by 5 points last month. He increased his lead among independents from 9 points to 19 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 65 percent to 34 percent compared to 55 percent to 43 percent for McCain. Sarah Palin was still seen favorably by half of voters but the number of those who now saw her unfavorably climbed 11 points. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 5-7 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 46 percent to 42 percent. Voters say Obama would be best able to handle the economy by 55 percent to 35 percent while McCain would be best able to handle the war in Iraq by 48 percent to 43 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 6 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's was 50 percent to 49 percent. Obama led by 20 points on who voters trusted more to handle the economy while the two candidates were statistically even on national security issues. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Democrat Favored.

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among unaffiliated voters, but that's half the margin he had in the last Rasmussen survey. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's are 51 percent to 48 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had McCain ahead by 59 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had 96 percent of Republicans solidly in back of him while Obama had the support of 82 percent of Democrats. McCain has an 18 point lead among independents (20 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Sept. 15-27 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 36 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That figure was for all adults. When the survey was limited to likely voters, McCain led by 20 points. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

Texas: McCain is leading Obama 57 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 5-8. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

Vermont: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Virginia: Obama is leading McCain 53 percent to 43 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 11-14. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 12 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 54 percent to 45 percent while McCain's were 56 percent to 43 percent. Obama led 49 percent to 46 percent on the issue of the economy while McCain led 52 percent to 44 percent on national security issues. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 6-7 had Obama leading in this traditionally GOP state by 51 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 percent. Two factors accounted for Obama's numbers: the economy and inroads among white voters. Sixty-three percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and they favored Obama 59 percent to 36 percent. Obama had also reduced a 25 point deficit among white voters to 10 points. Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite.

Washington State: Obama is leading McCain 56 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 12-13. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. The pollster says that Obama's lead has tripled among voters older than McCain, and doubled among voters between the two candidates' ages. Obama has more than doubled his lead among women in the last three weeks from 8 points to more than 20 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2 had Obama leading 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 39 percent, while McCain's was 56 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama more to manage the economy by 9 points and he has a 2 point edge over McCain when it came to Iraq and terrorism. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. Democrat Favored.

West Virginia: An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 4-8 suggests a turnaround for Obama. He is leading McCain 50 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. ARG's mid-September poll had McCain slightly ahead. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney . The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Republican Favored.

Wisconsin: Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/Washington Post/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 8-12. The Margin of error is 2.8 percent. Obama leads by 8 points among men, 26 points among women and 16 points among independents. More than half of voters cite the economy as the biggest issues and they say 53 percent to 32 percent that Obama understands it better. They say McCain better understands foreign policy by 57 percent to 32 percent. Wisconsites jude Sarah Palin as not qualified to be vice president by 47 percent to 43 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 5-6Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent undecided in . The margin of error is 4 percent. That's a 4 point pickup for Obama compared to Sept. 25. Obama runs evenly with McCain among men but leads him by 20 points among women. Voters trusted Obama more to handle the economy by 57 percent to 31 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 8 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 44 percent, compared to a month ago when his margin was 2 points. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 52 percent to 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 5-6 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 16 point lead among independents who make up a quarter of the sample. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Leans Democratic.

Wyoming: McCain leads Obama 66 percent to 28 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 put McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.