Poll Tracker

No Clear Favorite

• Colorado: Obama and McCain are tied at 44 percent each with 4 percent leaning towards third party candidates in a Mason-Dixon poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 1. In August, Obama had led by 3 points. Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 31 percent among unaffiliated voters with 9 percent favoring a third party candidate and 11 percent undecided. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 5 had Obama widening his lead from 1 point in late September to a 51 percent to 45 percent spread with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 1 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and 2 percent undecided. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 has Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 23 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. Obama had a 13 point lead among independents and the pollster said the state is "leaning heavily" in Obama's direction. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 20-21 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. PPP says part of the reason is a "precipitous drop" in Sarah Palin's popularity during the weeks after the GOP convention. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. No clear favorite.

• Florida: Obama has moved from a tie in late September to a 52 percent to 45 percent lead with 1 percent each for three third party candidates and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 5 The margin of error is 3 points. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 30 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The pollster said McCain had lost ground among men and independents since its last survey. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 27-29 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, including leaners, with 1 percent favoring someone else and 7 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.4 percent. That was a gain of 2 points since the debate, which Floridians said by 49 percent to 34 percent that Obama won. Sarah Palin's favorability ratings have done an about-face from 47 percent to 23 percent favorable in early September, to 39 percent to 36 percent negative. Sixty percent of Floridians called the economy the most important issue and they favored Obama by 14 points. They trusted McCain more on foreign policy by 9 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama moving from a tie in its last survey to a 51 percent to 47 percent lead. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A 7News/Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 27-30 had Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 4 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Voters said they trusted McCain and Obama about equally. Obama led McCain by 10 points on the question of which candidate understood and cared most about people like them. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 27-28 had Obama moving slightly out ahead of McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 points. McCain had led by 5 points in this poll right after the GOP convention, and PPP attributed the shift to rising concern over the economy and the rapid decline of Sarah Palin's standing in the state. Obama has also narrowed a 27 point deficit among white voters to 11 points. Obama led among Hispanics (13 percent of the sample) by 4 points, and among blacks (13 percent of the sample) by 92 percent to 6 percent. On issues, Barack had an 11 point lead over McCain on Iraq and a 15 point advantage on the economy. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 27-28 puts McCain a whisker ahead of Obama 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 22 point lead among voters under 34 (18 percent of the sample) and an 11 point lead among those between 35 and 49 (30 percent of the sample), while McCain leads by 6 points among voters over 65 (27 percent of the sample). McCain has a 10 point lead among whites and runs evenly with Obama among Hispanics. Obama has a 3 point edge over McCain on the issue of the economy and a 20 point lead on the issue of Iraq. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

• Nevada: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 3-6. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct.2 had Obama moving ahead of McCain for the first time since July. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama led 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 53 percent to 47 percent while McCain's was 54 percent to 46 percent. The two ran almost evenly on the question of who would better manage the economy while McCain led by 7 points on the issues of Iraq and terrorism. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 30 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 48 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 5 points. InsiderAdvantage says the race remains tight "but follows the general trend towards Sen. Obama in these key swing states." A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. No Clear Favorite.

• New Hampshire: The three most recent polls have Obama opening up a lead here. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 22 point lead among women, and led almost 2-to-1 among voters under 34 who comprise 19 percent of the sample and by 17 points among voters between 50 and 64 (27 percent of the sample) while McCain led by 15 points among voters over 65 (18 percent of the sample). Obama led by 9 points among independents (39 percent of the sample). A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had Obama ahead by 8 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Rasmussen said this is the first time Obama had a statistically significant lead here since July. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 60 percent to 39 percent while McCain's were 57 percent to 43 percent. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 9 points and McCain more on Iraq and terrorism by 8 points. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. No clear favorite.

• Ohio: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 4-5. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Sixty-one percent of voters name the economy as their top concern and they favor Obama by 58 percent to 34 percent. McCain's advantage among white voters (83 percent of the sample) has dwindled from 18 points to 6 while Obama leads among blacks (14 percent of the sample) by 87 percent to 10 percent. Obama's support in his own party has climbed to 84 percent to 9 percent compared to 76 percent to 16 percent last month. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 has Obama leading 50 percent to 47 percent. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 3-5 had Obama leading McCain 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" or "neither" and 2 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3 points and the numbers include likely voters with leaners. Among registered voters with leaners, Obama's margin was 2 points higher. Obama's lead in the previous Post/ABC poll was 3 points. No issue came close to the economy which was cited as the top concern by 52 percent of voters. Voters trusted Obama more on the economy by 52 percent to 39 percent and McCain more on Iraq by 50 percent to 44 percent. Voters also said that Obama better understands the economic problems facing Americans by a margin of 53 percent to 38 percent and he led McCain 2-to-1 on the question of who would do more to bring change to Washington. The two ran about even on who voters trusted most to handle an unexpected crisis. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Sept. 24 - Oct. 3 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2 points. Voters said by 49 percent to 39 percent that Obama was more likely to bring change to the country. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 5 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. No clear favorite.

• Virginia: New polls here have some sharp conflicts. Obama is leading McCain in this traditionally Republican state by 51 percent to 39 percent in a Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 3-5. The margin of error is 4 points. "The toxic state of the economy in the final year of the Bush Administration is making many Republican candidates radioactive," said poll director David Paleologos. "As has been the case in other Suffolk battleground states, the recent Wall Street and economic turmoil has been costly to the Republican party in Virginia." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 gave Obama a 53 percent to 43 percent lead with 3 percent for "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama has caught McCain's lead among whites (74 percent of the sample), which once stood at 22 points, to 9 points. He leads 86 percent to 13 percent among blacks who make up 19 percent of the sample. But a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 5 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 50 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. Both McCain's and Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratios were 56 percent to 43 percent. Obama led McCain by 4 points on who voters trusted more on the economy, while McCain led by 7 points on national security issues. [A Mason-Dixon poll conducted Sept. 29- Oct.1 showed McCain in front by 48 percent to 45 percent. That's within the 4 point margin of error. Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. CQ Politics is moving this content from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

Leans Democrat

• Iowa: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 42 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. Obama leads by 20 points among unaffiliated voters. Voters trust McCain 47 percent to 43 percent on handling the economy. Sixty-two percent believe that bridging the gap between rich and poor is more important to Obama than creating economic growth, while they say by a 66 percent to 11 percent margin that McCain is more concerned about growth. A Marist Institute Poll conducted Sept. 18-21 had Obama leading McCain among likely voters, including leaners, by 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Independents divided evenly among the two. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Leans Democratic.

• Maine: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring other and 1 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 55 percent to 44 percent. The two are tied when it comes to who voters trust more on the economy and McCain leads by 10 points on national security issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama has a 10 point lead among women and runs evenly with McCain among men. In a twist, McCain leads him by 8 points among voters under 34. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

• Michigan Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 37 percent in an Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters think McCain is more prepared to lead the country by 5 points while Obama is seen as better understanding peoples' needs and priorities by 20 points. President Bush's unpopularity here is a drag on the ticket, but 22 percent of those who give Bush a negative job rating say they will vote for McCain. A CNN/Time/Opinion research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An Inside Michigan Politics poll conducted Sept. 15-19 had McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 43 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. That was a 3 point net loss for Obama since this survey was done last. Obama lost ground with independents, with McCain building a 45 percent to 37 percent lead. Obama had a 54 percent to 36 percent lead among union households, but McCain led among blue collar voters 49 percent to 39 percent. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 54 percent to 31 percent while McCain's were 51 percent to 37 percent. Fifty-eight percent thought McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one, but she was more polarizing than Joseph Biden, with higher numbers saying the selection would make them more or less likely to vote Republican. A quarter of voters said they were less likely to vote for McCain because of his age. Voters believed 40 percent to 21 percent that Obama was more likely to bring change than McCain, but 30 percent believed neither of them would. They said by 32 percent to 25 percent they think they'd be better off under Obama but 34 percent said they would not be better off under either. Voters said Obama better understands the economy by 50 percent to 38 percent, and by 64 percent to 26 percent that McCain better understands foreign policy. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Leans Democratic.

• Minnesota: Recent polls suggest Obama may be running away from McCain here. A pair of Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute voter samplings conducted Sept. 29-Oct.1 and Oct. 3-5, before and after the vice presidential debate, saw Obama going from a 47 to 43 percent lead among likely voters to 54 percent to 40 percent. The margins of error were 5.3 percent and 4.8 percent respectively. The Humphrey Institute's Larry Jacobs said Obama shot out to this lead after passage of the financial bailout plan but also because Joseph Biden's debate performance gave the ticket a boost. In the second sampling, voters said Obama handled the financial crisis better by 14 points. About a quarter of voters said Biden's performance made them more likely to vote Democratic while Palin's pre and post debate numbers remained about the same. A Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Poll of likely voters conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 37 percent lead over McCain in. The race was dead even in the paper's September poll. As in some other battleground states, Obama was benefiting from voters' belief that he was the better candidate to manage the worsening economy, in his debate performance and an increase in party identification with the Democrats. Obama polled 28 points better than McCain on the issue of the economy and twice as many debate viewers said their view of Obama turned more favorable after the debate than said that of McCain. Just as was the case with the Star Tribune's poll of the Senate race between Democratic Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman, this poll stood in stark contrast to one by SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 30 - Oct. 1 which had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 47 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30 had Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Obama had a 2 point lead here a month ago. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Leans Democratic.

• New Mexico: Obama leads McCain 45 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 14 percent undecided in an Albuquerque Journal poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 2. Obama led McCain among Hispanic voters by 62 percent to 17 percent and among independents by 44 percent to 29 percent. "For John McCain to win, he needs to get his half of the independent vote," said pollster Brian Sanderoff. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 29-30 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. SurveyUSA says the state is looking "less and less like a toss-up." Obama has a 14 point lead among women and runs about even with McCain among men. He has a 2-to-1 lead among the 18 percent of voters under 34. McCain leads 53 percent to 44 percent among white voters(60 percent of the sample) while Obama is ahead 66 percent to 29 percent among Hispanics (31 percent of the sample). Obama leads McCain by 14 points on the issue of the economy. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1 has Obama ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain had led by 2 points a month ago. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 47 percent while McCain is seen unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 5 points and McCain on Iraq and terrorism by 4 points. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. Leans Democrat.

• Pennsylvania: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 50 percent to 49 percent. Obama leads by 20 points on who voters trust more to handle the economy while the two candidates are statistically even on national security issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 5-6 had Obama leading 55 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Part of the reason was a 7 point swing to Obama by white voters among whom he now leads 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama led 62 percent to 29 percent among independents, but they made up only 9 percent of the sample. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call daily tracking poll conducted Oct. 2-6 has Obama leading McCain by 48 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. On Sept. 26, Obama's lead had been 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 52 percent to 34 percent while McCain's were 43 percent to 39 percent. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 27-29 had Obama opening up a 54 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain with 1 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.4 percent. That was a 9 point gain for Obama since the presidential debate. "Three quarters of voters say economic issues, including energy and health care, are the most important in this campaign and Obama wins big on every economy-related question in the poll," said Quinnipiac's Clay Richards. "Sen. McCain can't win Pennsylvania with just 36 percent of voters saying he is the candidate for the economy." Voters said Obama won the debate by 51 percent to 30 percent. Sarah Palin was seen negatively by 37 percent of voters compared to 34 percent who had a positive view, a turnaround from the 39 percent to 26 percent favorable to unfavorable margin she had a few weeks ago. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Leans Democrat.

• Wisconsin: Obama has moved into a double-digit lead over McCain, 54 percent to 44 percent, compared to a month ago when his margin was 2 points, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 8. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 52 percent to 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 5-6 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Obama had a 16 point lead among independents who make up a quarter of the sample. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 has Obama ahead by 5 points. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 53 percent to 31 percent while McCain's were 49 percent to 37 percent. Voters said Obama was more likely to bring about change than McCain by 45 percent to 22 percent with 27 percent believing neither would. Asked under whom they think they would be better off a year from now, 34 percent said Obama, 27 percent said McCain and 30 percent said it didn't make a difference. Voters believed Obama better understood the economy by 47 percent to 40 percent and that McCain better understood foreign policy by 65 percent to 23 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Leans Democratic.

Leans Republican

• Indiana: Several polls point to a tight race. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 shows McCain leading 51 percent to 46 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 3 had McCain and Obama tied at 46 percent each with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. McCain led by 8 points among men, and Obama by 8 among women. McCain led by 10 points among whites. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 28-29 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 48 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama had a 49 percent to 45 percent lead among the 61 percent of voters who name the economy as the top issue. Health care was next at 9 percent and there Obama led 69 percent to 22 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. Leans Republican.

• Missouri: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 5. The margin of error is 3 percent. A week ago, McCain led by 5 points in this poll. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30 has Obama in a statistical tie with McCain at 49 percent to 48 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 23-24 gave McCain a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Obama with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama led by 20 points among voters under 34 while McCain held the same advantage among voters over 65. McCain had an 11 point lead among whites who make up 86 percent of the sample while Obama led among blacks (10 percent of the sample) 83 percent to 14 percent. McCain had a 7 point edge among independents. A Research 2000 poll conducted published Sept. 6 also shows McCain statistically tied with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Neither candidate dominated on the question of who could best handle the current financial crisis. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. Leans Republican.

• North Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 5-6. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain has a 7 point lead among men and a 61 percent to 33 percent margin among whites, who make up 76 percent of the sample. Obama leads 92 percent to 7 percent among blacks who comprise 20 percent of the sample. Obama also leads by 12 points among independents who make up 18 percent of the sample. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 4-5 had Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Obama had led by 2 points in PPP's late September poll. A big factor in Obama's upward movement was that fellow Democrats seem to finally be coalescing around him. In PPP's five previous polls, his level of support in his own party had been between 69 percent and 76 percent, but it is now 82 percent with 15 percent favoring McCain. Republicans have had to win a fifth to a third of the Democratic vote in previous presidential elections in order to claim victory. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 3-6 had McCain and Obama tied at 49 percent each. An Elon University poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct.2. showed voters split 39 percent to 39 percent on which candidate they would support in the presidential election and also narrowly divided on which candidate would better manage the economy, with 44 percent choosing Obama and 42 percent naming McCain in Seven percent said "neither." Forty-eight percent blamed the Republicans for the current state of the economy compared to 24 percent who pointed their fingers at the Democrats. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30 gave Obama a 50 percent to 47 percent McCain with 2 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 55 percent to 45 percent while McCain's were 52 percent to 46 percent. Obama and McCain were statistically tied on the question of who voters trust more on the economy, but McCain had an 11 point margin on national security issues. Obama led by 12 points among women and McCain leads by 10 points among men.. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. Leans Republican.

Democrat Favored

• Connecticut: An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 has Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Obama ahead of McCain by 53 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain picked up a few points here since the last poll. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Democrat Favored.

• New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent undecided in a {Fairleigh Dickinson University poll](http://publicmind.fdu.edu/givesback/) conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 5. the margin of error is 3.5 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted Sept. 10-14 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. In mid-August, he had led by 10 points. McCain had increased his margin among white voters from 8 points to 19 points. Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. McCain leads by 7 points among men while Obama has a 16 point advantage among women. Voters under 34, who comprise about a fifth of the sample, favor Obama by 24 points, the biggest gap in any age group. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-22 Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 had Obama's lead down to 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. In early August Obama had led by 10 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's was 56 percent to 44 percent. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Democrat Favored.

• Washington State: Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2. The margin of error is 4 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 39 percent, while McCain's is 56 percent to 43 percent. Voters trust Obama more to manage the economy by 9 points and he has a 2 point edge over Mccain when it comes to Iraq and terrorism. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-18 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama leading 47 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 35 percent and McCain's is 49 percent to 36 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. Democrat Favored.

Republican Favored

• Arizona: McCain leads Obama 59 percent to 38 percent in his home state with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Republican Favored.

• Georgia: McCain is leading Obama 50 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 29 - Oct. 1. The margin of error is 4 points. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 30 has McCain leading Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. While Obama was winning the black vote hands down, InsiderAdvantage says he "is making little additional progress with white voters." The last poll had McCain ahead by 8 points. A SurveyUSA poll published Sept. 30 had McCain leading Obama 52 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain had led by 16 in SurveyUSA's last poll about two weeks ago. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-21 had McCain leading Obama 57 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Republican Favored.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorability rating tops Obama's 64 percent to 46 percent, and voters trust him more than Obama on both economic and national security issues. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1. The margin of error is 4.5 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 56 percent to 44 percent while Obama's are 50-50. Voters trust McCain more on the economy by 5 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 16 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-9 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. Republican Favored.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Sept. 15-27 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 36 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That figure was for all adults. When the survey was limited to likely voters, McCain led by 20 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-19 had McCain ahead 59 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain led among white voters (86 percent of the sample) by 68 percent to 27 percent while black voters (14 percent of the sample) favored Obama by 93 percent to 4 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

• West Virginia: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Republican Favored.

Safe Democrat

• California: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Obama has more than a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics who make up about a fifth of the sample. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent. A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted Sept. 9-16 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2 percent. Likely voters thought Obama would do a better job of handling health care, jobs and the economy and energy policy but that McCain would do a better job on foreign policy. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

• Delaware: Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 37 percent in Joseph Biden's home state with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-15 had Obama ahead by 51 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

• District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Hawaii: In the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 36 percent in a Research 2000 poll reported Sept. 21 in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, which devoted most of its story to Missouri. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had Obama ahead 52.9 percent to 37 percent with 2.1 percent preferring "other" and 5.6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. The results included leaners. Voters said McCain was the more experienced by 67.3 percent to 21.4 percent; they believed Obama shared their values more than McCain by 49.4 percent to 37.4 percent; and, they believed Obama was more likely to bring about change by 59.1 percent to 26.6 percent. Fifty-seven percent wanted to set a timetable to withdraw troops from Iraq in 16 months as Obama has proposed, and 34 percent said we should stay until the country is stable. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

• Maryland: Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided. the margin of error is 4 points. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

• New York: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent expressing no opinion in a Siena Research Institute poll conducted Sept. 28-30. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. In its September poll, Siena had McCain within 5 points. More than half of New Yorkers have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 24-25 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 has the race here the closest it's been in six months, with Obama leading McCain 55 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 37 percent and McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

• Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

• Vermont: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Safe Republican

• Alabama: McCain leads Obama 60 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22. (A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-18 had McCain ahead 64 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain led among white voters (76 percent of the sample) by 79 percent to 19 percent while Obama led among blacks (21 percent of the sample) 89 percent to 10 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Alaska: While McCain is still comfortably ahead here, the factor that gave him a big boost - his choice of Sarah Palin - appears to be wearing off. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 6. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain now leads 55 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. In early September, on the heels of the GOP convention, McCain's lead had shot up to 60 percent to 36 percent. He is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 put McCain ahead 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

• Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Safe Republican.

• Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

• Kansas: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22. McCain is down 5 points and Obama up 6 points since the last survey. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 7-10 had McCain ahead 63 percent to 31 percent with 6 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

• Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 35 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 49 percent. Voters here trust McCain more on the economy by 7 points and on Iraq and terrorism by 22 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22 had McCain leading Obama 58 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. A Research 200 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 37 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

• Mississippi: McCain's lead over Obama has narrowed to 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent McCain had led by 13 points in August. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 62 percent to 35 percent while Obama's are 51 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. McCain's lead among white voters is 79 percent to 16 percent while Obama leads among blacks 98 percent to 2 percent. Unlike some other states where Sarah Palin's ratings are falling, she is seen favorably here by 64 percent. Mississippians trust McCain more both on the economy and national security. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain took 81 percent of the white vote. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

• Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

• North Dakota: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-17. The margin of error is 4 points. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. Safe Republican.

• Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 65.5 percent to 29.1 percent with 5.4 percent undecided in an Oklahoma City News 9 poll conducted Oct. 4-5. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 28-29 had McCain ahead64 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-18 had McCain ahead 61 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided in. the margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

• South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among unaffiliated voters, but that's half the margin he had in the last Rasmussen survey. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's are 51 percent to 48 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had McCain ahead by 59 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had 96 percent of Republicans solidly in back of him while Obama had the support of 82 percent of Democrats. McCain has an 18 point lead among independents (20 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Wyoming: McCain leads Obama 66 percent to 28 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 put McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.