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• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

No Clear Favorite

• Colorado: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 28. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 44 percent while McCain's are 57 percent to 41 percent. Voters trust McCain more by 47 percent to 44 percent. Sixty-one percent have at least some level of comfort with Obama as President compared to 37 percent who do not, while McCain's "comfort index" is 63 percent to 36 percent. The candidates are even on who voters trust more on the economy while McCain leads Obama by 11 points on foreign policy and terrorism issues. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 has Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 23 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. Obama had a 13 point lead among independents and the pollster said the state is "leaning heavily" in Obama's direction. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 20-21 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. PPP says part of the reason is a "precipitous drop" in Sarah Palin's popularity during the weeks after the GOP convention. "It seems like the more voters have learned about Sarah Palin the less they've liked her," PPP said. Obama has also significantly increased his lead among independents who make up about a quarter of the vote and has a 21 point lead among Hispanics who comprise 14 percent of the sample. Obama leads McCain among voters who cite economy as the top issue by 61 percent to 34 percent and on Iraq by 54 percent to 41 percent. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 has Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Obama has leads of18 and 20 points respectively on the issues of the war and the economy while McCain is favored by 12 points on energy policy. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 33 percent while McCain's is 56 percent to 35 percent. A majority of voters think McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one, but it is more polarizing than Obama's choice of Joseph Biden with higher numbers saying it would make them more or less likely to vote Republican. Thirty percent say McCain's age makes it less likely they would vote for him. Obama is the choice for bringing change by 46 percent to 22 percent. No one dominates on the question of voters believing they will be better off if one or the other wins: 34 percent choose Obama on this score, 29 percent say McCain and 27 percent say neither. Voters believe 47 percent to 41 percent that Obama better understands the economy and 63 percent to 29 percent that McCain knows foreign policy better. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. No clear favorite.

• Florida: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, including leaners, with 1 percent favoring someone else and 7 percent expressing no opinion in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 27-29. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. That's a gain of 2 points since the debate, in which Floridians said by 49 percent to 34 percent that Obama did better. Sarah Palin's favorability ratings have done an about-face from 47 percent to 23 percent favorable in early September, to 39 percent to 36 percent negative. Sixty percent of Floridians call the economy the most important issue and they favor Obama by 14 points. They trust McCain more on foreign policy by 9 points. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30 has Obama moving from a tie in its last survey to a 51 percent to 47 percent lead. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A 7News/Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 27-30 has Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, 4 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Voters said they trusted McCain and Obama about equally. Obama led McCain by 10 points on the question of which candidate understood and cared most about people like them. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 27-28 had Obama moving slightly out ahead of McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.2 points. McCain had led by 5 points in this poll right after the GOP convention, and PPP attributed the shift to rising concern over the economy and the rapid decline of Sarah Palin's standing in the state. Obama has also narrowed a 27 point deficit among white voters to 11 points. Obama led among Hispanics (13 percent of the sample) by 4 points, and among blacks (13 percent of the sample) by 92 percent to 6 percent. On issues, Barack had an 11 point lead over McCain on Iraq and a 15 point advantage on the economy. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 27-28 puts McCain a whisker ahead of Obama 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has a 22 point lead among voters under 34 (18 percent of the sample) and an 11 point lead among those between 35 and 49 (30 percent of the sample), while McCain leads by 6 points among voters over 65 (27 percent of the sample). McCain has a 10 point lead among whites and runs evenly with Obama among Hispanics. Obama has a 3 point edge over McCain on the issue of the economy and a 20 point lead on the issue of Iraq. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 28 has McCain and Obama tied at 47 percent each with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 45 percent while McCain's are 59 percent to 37 percent. Sixty percent of voters would have some level of comfort with Obama as President compared to 37 percent who would not, while McCain's numbers are 60 percent to 37 percent. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 7 points and McCain more on national security and terrorism by 11 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 27-28 had McCain and Obama statistically-tied with McCain ahead 48 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. Obama led by double-digits among voters under 49 while McCain had a 6 point margin among voters over 65. McCain had an 8 point lead among white voters (76 percent of the sample), Obama led by 58 points among blacks (10 percent of the sample) and the two ran evenly among Hispanics. On the economy, cited as the top issue by 65 percent with all other issues 8 percent or lower), the candidates were within the margin of error of each other. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 21-23 had McCain leading Obama 48 percent to 45 percent in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error was 3 percent. An NBC News/Mason Dixon poll conducted Sept. 16-18 had Obama leading McCain by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

• Nevada: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 47 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30. The margin of error is 4 points. A Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 17-21 has McCain at 45.8 percent and Obama at 45.3 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 12-14 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11 had him leading Obama 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's were 53 percent to 46 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Sept. 11 had McCain leading 46 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent . The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. No Clear favorite.

• New Hampshire: Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 44 percent to 43 percent in an Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters see McCain as better prepared to lead the country by 15 points while they say Obama better understands peoples' needs and priorities by 13 points. A Marist Institute poll shows Obama ahead among likely voters, including leaners, by 51 percent to 45 percent and by a lesser 3 point margin among registered voters. One percent preferred someone else and 3 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 17-21 and has a 3.5 percent margin of error. On the excitement test, 70 percent of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastic about him compared to 49 percent of McCain supporters. Voters believe Obama has the better plan for the economy by 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain has the better record by 48 percent to 35 percent. The top motivator for Obama backers is that they believe he is closer to them on the issues while McCain supporters like him because they think he shares their values and is honest and trustworthy. Voters say by 54 percent to 38 percent Obama has the better plan to bring about change but, by 51 percent to 37 percent, that McCain has the better record. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in. It's McCain's third monthly gain in this survey. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 60 percent to 39 percent while Obama's are 54 percent to 43 percent. A WMUR/Granite State poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. However, the poll noted the fluidity of the race, saying that the number of voters who said they are undecided was significantly higher when the question was worded about how they would vote in November as opposed to how they would vote if the election were held today. "New Hampshire is definitely a state that is up for grabs and will remain so until election day," said poll director Andrew Smith. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. No clear favorite.

• New Mexico: Obama has pulled out to a 53 percent to 42 percent lead over McCain with 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 17-19. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama runs about even with McCain among white voters but has a 24 point advantage among Hispanics who make up 39 percent of the sample. McCain's pick of Palin didn't play well here with 46 percent of all voters and 47 percent of independents saying the choice made them less likely to vote Republican. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. McCain did less well here than elsewhere on the question of who was better prepared to lead the country with only a 3 point margin over Obama. Obama led by 11 on the question of who understood the needs and priorities of voters. A [SurveyUSA poll] conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 1 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama has an 18 point lead among voters under 34 and leads in all other age groups except those over 65 where he is statistically tied with McCain. McCain has an 11 point lead among whites (60 percent of the sample) but Obama has a 41 point advantage among Hispanics (31 percent of the sample). Half of the voters cite the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama by 18 points. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Democrats have won three of the last five elections here.* The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. No clear favorite.*

• Ohio: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent expressing no opinion in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 27-29. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. That's a 1 point gain since the debate which Ohioans say by 49 percent to 33 percent that Obama won. Sarah Palin's favorability ratings have plummeted from 41 percent favorable to 22 percent unfavorable in early September to an even 35 percent to 35 percent split. Nearly 60 percent of voters call the economy the biggest issue and they favor Obama by 11 points. Voters trust McCain more on foreign policy by 12 points. Voters saw Obama's efforts on the current financial crisis as helpful by 50 percent to 23 percent compared to 43 percent to 33 percent for McCain. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 28 had McCain statistically tied with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 52 percent to 44 percent while McCain's was 55 percent to 41 percent. Voters trusted McCain more by 50 percent to 41 percent. Fifty-five percent of voters expressed some comfort level about Obama being President while 40 percent did not, while McCain's numbers were 61 percent to 34 percent. The candidates tied on who voters thought would better handle the economy while McCain had a 17 point advantage on foreign policy and terrorism issues. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept.28-29 has McCain locked with Obama at 49 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent for "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Gender and age are not big factors here. McCain has a 12 points lead among white voters (85 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 84 percent to 15 percent among blacks (11 percent of the sample). An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 23 had McCain and Obama tied at 46 percent each with 1 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided. An Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted Sept. 12-16 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. The poll said the potential for volatility was high given that 19 percent of voters might change their mind by election day. McCain outscored Obama 52 percent to 37 percent on who would better demonstrate good judgment, 50 percent to 32 percent on who was more qualified and 45 percent to 37 percent on who had higher personal and ethical standards. Obama bested McCain 53 percent to 28 percent as far as being personally likeable and 46 percent to 39 percent on who best understood the problems facing Ohio. A Marist Institute poll conducted Sept. 11-15 has Obama in a statistical tie with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent and the numbers reflected likely voters including leaners. The top qualities of Obama for his supporters were commitment to change and being closer to them on the issues. For McCain voters, the top two were sharing their values and being honest. By a lesser margin than many other state and national polls, voters overall favored Obama over McCain by 45 percent to 42 percent on who has a better plan to bring about change and they said 48 percent to 36 percent that McCain has a better record in bringing about change. Sixty-nine percent of Obama backers said they are excited about him compared to 52 percent for McCain. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama is also in a statistical tie with McCain at 45.6 percent to 45.1 percent with 2.3 percent preferring "other" and 4.8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters say Obama is more likely to bring about change by 52.3 percent to 34.8. Both are within the margin of error of each other on who voters think shares their values. Voters say McCain wins the experience race 73.1 percent to 16.5 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 has McCain locked with Obama at 42 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Ohioans believe McCain is better prepared to lead the country than Obama by 51 percent to 35 percent while saying 47 percent to 37 percent that Obama better understands their needs and priorities. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 also had them statistically tied with Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. The margin of error was 3 points. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted that "economic issues are increasingly dividing voters along income lines," with higher income voters moving towards McCain and lower income voters towards Obama. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. No clear favorite.

• Virginia: Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 44 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30. The margin of error is 4 points. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 28 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent each choosing Ralph Nader and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 44 percent while McCain's was 55 percent to 44 percent. Voters were roughly split on which candidate they trusted more. Fifty-seven percent of voters had some level of comfort with the idea of Obama being President while 40 percent were not comfortable at all. For McCain, 61 percent had some comfort level while 37 percent did not. Voters gave Obama a 5 point edge on handling the economy and favored McCain by 8 points on national security and terrorism issues. A Washington Post/ABC News conducted Sept. 18-21 has Obama ahead49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent expressing no opinion in a survey of likely voters. The margin of error is 3 points. If Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are included, Obama leads 50 percent to 45 percent with Barr and Nader getting 1 percent each. The poll says Obama "holds a 10-point lead over John McCain among registered voters in trust to handle the economy; a bigger, 23-point advantage in understanding Americans' economic problems; and large head-to-head leads in vote preference among those who cite the economy as their top issue and who express worry about its direction." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 19-21 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. The biggest demographic gaps: Obama had a 16 point lead among women and a 17 point lead among voters under 34 (26 percent of the sample). McCain led by 15 points among whites (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 86 percent to 14 percent among blacks (18 percent of the sample). Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. CQ Politics is moving this content from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

Leans Democrat

• Iowa: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 42 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. Obama leads by 20 points among unaffiliated voters. Voters trust McCain 47 percent to 43 percent on handling the economy. Sixty-two percent believe that bridging the gap between rich and poor is more important to Obama than creating economic growth, while they say by a 66 percent to 11 percent margin that McCain is more concerned about growth. A Marist Institute Poll conducted Sept. 18-21 had Obama leading McCain among likely voters, including leaners, by 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Independents divided evenly among the two. Sixty-eight percent of Obama's supporters said they were energized about their candidate compared to 46 for McCain, with 53 percent of McCain backers saying they were not excited about their choice. Voters said Obama had a better plan for the economy by 50 percent to 37 percent while McCain had a better record on it by 45 percent to 40 percent. The biggest motivator for McCain backers was their belief he shares their values while for Obama supporters, it was the idea he'll bring about change. Overall, voters say by 53 percent to 35 percent Obama has the better plan for change, but by 44 percent to 40 percent that McCain has the better record. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Research 2000's Del Ali attributed some of Obama's lead to all the time he spent in the state during the caucus and primary season. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 17-18 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama had a 20 point lead among women and a 30 point lead among voters under 34 (23 percent of the sample). Sixty percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama by 15 points. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Leans Democratic.*

• Maine: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Obama has a 10 point lead among women and runs evenly with McCain among men. In a twist, McCain leads him by 8 points among voters under 34. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. That was within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain's was 56 percent to 44 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided. A [Research 2000 poll] conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

• Michigan Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 37 percent in an Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters think McCain is more prepared to lead the country by 5 points while Obama is seen as better understanding peoples' needs and priorities by 20 points. President Bush's unpopularity here is a drag on the ticket, but 22 percent of those who give Bush a negative job rating say they will vote for McCain. A CNN/Time/Opinion research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 had Obama ahead49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An Inside Michigan Politics poll conducted Sept. 15-19 had McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 43 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. That was a 3 point net loss for Obama since this survey was done last. Obama lost ground with independents, with McCain building a 45 percent to 37 percent lead. Obama had a 54 percent to 36 percent lead among union households, but McCain led among blue collar voters 49 percent to 39 percent. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Obama ahead48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 54 percent to 31 percent while McCain's are 51 percent to 37 percent. Fifty-eight percent think McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one, but she is more polarizing than Joseph Biden, with higher numbers saying the selection would make them more or less likely to vote Republican. A quarter of voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age. Voters believe 40 percent to 21 percent that Obama is more likely to bring change than McCain, but 30 percent believe neither of them will. They say by 32 percent to 25 percent they think they'd be better off under Obama but 34 percent say they will not be better off under either. Voters say Obama better understands the economy by 50 percent to 38 percent, and by 64 percent to 26 percent that McCain better understands foreign policy. A [Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll] conducted Sept. 21 has ahead McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 38 percent while McCain's was 53 percent to 46 percent. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 49 percent to 43 percent. Forty-five percent would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President compared to 37 percent for McCain. Voters preferred Obama on the economy by 10 points and McCain on national security and terrorism by 9 points. An [EPIC-MRA poll] conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama ahead 43 percent to 42 percent with Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader drawing 2 percent each and 10 percent undecided , according to. The margin of error is 4 points. These numbers pretty much mirrored what EPIC-MRA found in July and August. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-19 has leading 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided . The margin of error is 4 points. McCain has an 11 point lead among white voters (86 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among blacks (14 percent of the sample) by 89 percent to 2 percent. McCain's support among Republicans is 8 points higher than Obama's among Democrats, and Obama leads by 10 points among independents who make up 27 percent of the sample. AMarist Institute poll conducted Sept. 16-17 had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent and the numbers included likely voters with leaners. The most important quality of their candidate for Obama supporters was "change" with 33 percent citing that. Twenty-two percent of McCain supporters cited the top qualities as being closer to them on the issues and sharing their values, followed closely by stronger leadership at 21 percent. Obama topped McCain handily, 53 percent to 37 percent, on who voters believe has a better plan to bring about change, but they said by 46 percent to 43 percent that McCain has the better record on bringing about change. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 60 percent to 36 percent, compared to 50 percent to 44 percent for McCain. Sixty-nine percent of Obama supporters were excited about their choice compared to 45 percent for McCain. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Leans Democratic.

• Minnesota: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 43 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 28-30. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Obama had a 2 point lead here a month ago. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 54 percent to 30 percent while McCain's were 56 percent to 32 percent. Fifty-six percent believed McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one but she was a more polarizing selection with a higher number of voters saying that they were more likely to vote for or against the Republicans than is the case with Joseph Biden. A quarter of voters are concerned about McCain's age. Voters said Obama is more likely to bring change by 43 percent to 24 percent with 28 percent saying they don't expect change under either. On the question whether voters believe they would be better off a year from now depending on which one is elected, they split roughly even among the two candidates and the belief that neither will matter. McCain and Obama were tied on who understands the economy better, but McCain led 64 percent to 24 percent when it came to who voters thought understands foreign policy better. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18 has Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain's is 52 percent to 46 percent. Last month's Rasmussen poll had Obama leading by 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Leans Democratic.

• Pennsylvania: Obama has opened a 54 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain with 1 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent expressing no opinion in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 27-29. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. That's a 9 point gain for Obama since the presidential debate. "Three quarters of voters say economic issues, including energy and health care, are the most important in this campaign and Obama wins big on every economy-related question in the poll," said Quinnipiac's Clay Richards. " Sen. McCain can't win Pennsylvania with just 36 percent of voters saying he is the candidate for the economy." Voters said Obama won the debate by 51 percent to 30 percent. Sarah Palin is seen negatively by 37 percent of voters compared to 34 percent who have a positive view, a turnaround from the 39 percent to 26 percent favorable to unfavorable margin she had a few weeks ago. A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll conducted Sept. 24-28 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. That lead increased by 3 points from the first day of the tracking to the last, coinciding with the eruption of the financial crisis. Voters trusted McCain more on handling the war by 49 percent to 43 percent but gave Obama a 48 percent to 36 percent lead on the economy. They said by 45 percent to 29 percent that he would better handle the situation on Wall Street. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 28, Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 58 percent to 41 percent while McCain's are 54 percent to 45 percent. Voters say they trust Obama more by 49 percent to 42 percent. Forty-one percent are very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President with another 22 percent "somewhat" comfortable, while 36 percent are extremely or very comfortable with McCain and 25 percent are somewhat comfortable. Voters trust Obama more on the economy by 52 percent to 39 percent and McCain on foreign policy by 51 percent to 43 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 18-22 gave Obama a statistically insignificant 43 percent to 41 percent lead over McCain. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Pennsylvanians regarded McCain as better prepared to lead the country by 20 points, but said Obama better understand peoples' needs and priorities by 13 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 23-24 has Obama ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama has double-digit leads in two age groups, 18 to 34 and 50 to 64. Independents favor him by 8 points. (A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent for Ralph Nader. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 21-23 has McCain leading Obama 47 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Leans Democrat.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 53 percent to 31 percent while McCain's are 49 percent to 37 percent. Fifty-seven percent believe McCain made a good choice in picking Sarah Palin, but she is a more polarizing selection than Joseph Biden with more voters saying they are likely to vote for or against the ticket because of her. Voters say Obama is more likely to bring about change than McCain by 45 percent to 22 percent with 27 percent believing neither will. Asked under whom they think they will be better off a year from now, 34 percent said Obama, 27 percent said McCain and 30 percent said it didn't make a difference. Voters believe Obama better understands the economy by 47 percent to 40 percent and that McCain better understands foreign policy by 65 percent to 23 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18-21 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in. the margin of error is 4 points. McCain has a 14 point lead among women while Obama has a 12 point advantage among women. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 45.2 percent to 44.3 percent with 1.2 percent choosing other and 7.3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters said Obama was the better candidate to bring about change by 522.2 percent to 32.2 percent. They divided almost evenly on who voters thought shared their values. McCain was judged the more experienced by 75.8 percent to 16.5 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept.13 also has Obama statistically tied with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That represents a steadily shrinking margin for Obama who, in the last two Rasmussen polls, led by 4 and 11 respectively. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 58 percent to 41 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 also shows a close race with Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Leans Democratic.

Leans Republican

• Indiana: Several polls point to a tight race. McCain is in a statistical tie with Obama at 48 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 28-29. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Obama has a 49 percent to 45 percent lead among the 61 percent of voters who name the economy as the top issue. Health care is next at 9 percent and there Obama leads 69 percent to 22 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-18 had McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 47 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain has a 13 point lead among independents who make up about a quarter of the sample. Rasmussen Reports also has the two in a statistical tie with McCain ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has McCain ahead 46.7 percent to 43.2 percent with 2.4 percent choosing other and 5.1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama is favored 54.1 percent to 30.5 percent as the candidate who can bring about change; McCain is judged the more experienced by 73.4 percent to 17.7 percent, and voters are split on who most shares their values, with McCain leading 42.9 percent to 41.3 percent.An Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A quarter of voters said they could still change their minds. Pollster J. Ann Selzer says the survey "shows the race is slippery in Indiana" and Obama's lead is "fragile." A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had McCain ahead by 51 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. Leans Republican.

• Missouri: Obama was down 5 points here in the last CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll but its latest one, conducted Sept. 28-30, has him in a statistical tie with McCain at 49 percent to 48 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 23-24 gave McCain a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Obama with 4 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama led by 20 points among voters under 34 while McCain held the same advantage among voters over 65. McCain had an 11 point lead among whites who make up 86 percent of the sample while Obama led among blacks (10 percent of the sample) 83 percent to 14 percent. McCain had a 7 point edge among independents. A Research 2000 poll conducted published Sept. 6 also shows McCain statistically tied with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Neither candidate dominated on the question of who could best handle the current financial crisis. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. Leans Republican.

• North Carolina: Obama is leading McCain 47 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling Survey conducted Sept. 28-29. The margin of error is 3 percent. The number of North Carolinians concerned about the economy as the top issue rose from 58 percent in the last survey to 64 percent, and Obama leads among them by 55 percent to 38 percent. Despite Obama's statistically insignificant lead, PPP's Tom Debnam says, "Things are getting out of control for Republicans ... pretty fast. They somehow have to shift the conversation back to the issues that voters trust them more on, because if this continues to be an election about the economy , Democrats are going to win." The poll also found Sarah Palin going from net favorable to net negative. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept.23 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 44 percent and Obama's was 57 percent to 41 percent. Although Obama's lead was not statistically significant, it was the first time he had any kind of lead in eight Rasmussen polls. Obama's support among fellow Democrats improved from 79 percent to 85 percent. There was a sharp racial divide with McCain getting 64 percent of white voters and Obama drawing 98 percent support from blacks. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Sept. 17-20 had McCain and Obama tied at 44 percent each with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Obama has reversed McCain's lead among unaffiliated voters and is now ahead by 5 points. The margin of error was 4 points.. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. Leans Republican.

Democrat Favored

• Connecticut: An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 has Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Obama ahead of McCain by 53 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain picked up a few points here since the last poll. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Democrat Favored.

• New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted Sept. 10-14 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. In mid-August, he had led by 10 points. McCain had increased his margin among white voters from 8 points to 19 points. A quarter of all voters and more than a third of independents said it is somewhat or very likely the debates could change their minds. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey." A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama over McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Voters believed by 49 percent to 40 percent that Obama would better handle the economy while they favor McCain 47 percent to 43 percent on the ability to handle Iraq. Obama's lead over McCain also narrowed in a Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Sept.11-14 that put Obama ahead among likely voters 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama led by 14 points in July. Monmouth's Patrick Murray, like other New Jersey pollsters, cautioned on reading too much into this, saying "Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling but have had problems maintaining that momentum." Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. McCain leads by 7 points among men while Obama has a 16 point advantage among women. Voters under 34, who comprise about a fifth of the sample, favor Obama by 24 points, the biggest gap in any age group. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-22 Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 had Obama's lead down to 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. In early August Obama had led by 10 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's was 56 percent to 44 percent. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Democrat Favored.

• Washington State: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-18. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama leading 47 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 35 percent and McCain's is 49 percent to 36 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 10 has McCain trailing by a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent margin with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A month ago, Obama led by 12 in this poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 60 percent to 38 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points.Democrat Favored.

Republican Favored

• Arizona: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Republican Favored.

• Georgia: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 44 percent in a {SurveyUSA poll](http://www.13wmaz.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/200809300921/NEWS02/80930008) reported Sept. 30. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. McCain had led by 16 in SurveyUSA's last poll about two weeks ago. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-21 had McCain leading Obama 57 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 gave McCain a 54 percent to 43 percent lead with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 18 has McCain ahead 51 percent to 43 percent over Obama with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That's a 10 point drop for McCain from their previous survey. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Republican Favored.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorability rating tops Obama's 64 percent to 46 percent, and voters trust him more than Obama on both economic and national security issues. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-9 has McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. Republican Favored.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A Middle Tennessee State University poll conducted Sept. 15-27McCain ahead 48 percent to 36 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That figure was for all adults. When the survey was limited to likely voters, McCain led by 20 points. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-19 had McCain ahead 59 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain led among white voters (86 percent of the sample) by 68 percent to 27 percent while black voters (14 percent of the sample) favored Obama by 93 percent to 4 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

• West Virginia: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A [Mark Blankenship Enterprises poll] conducted Sept. 6-7 had McCain ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with 17 percent undecided. Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Republican Favored.

Safe Democrat

• California: Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 23-24. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama has a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics who make up about a fifth of the sample. A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted Sept. 9-16 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2 percent. Likely voters thought Obama would do a better job of handling health care, jobs and the economy and energy policy but that McCain would do a better job on foreign policy. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain was viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

• Delaware: Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 37 percent in Joseph Biden's home state with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-15 had Obama ahead by 51 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

• District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Hawaii: in the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-12 had Obama ahead 63 percent to 32 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 36 percent in a Research 2000 poll reported Sept. 21 in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, which devoted most of its story to Missouri. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had Obama ahead 52.9 percent to 37 percent with 2.1 percent preferring "other" and 5.6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. The results included leaners. Voters said McCain was the more experienced by 67.3 percent to 21.4 percent; they believed Obama shared their values more than McCain by 49.4 percent to 37.4 percent; and, they believed Obama was more likely to bring about change by 59.1 percent to 26.6 percent. Fifty-seven percent wanted to set a timetable to withdraw troops from Iraq in 16 months as Obama has proposed, and 34 percent said we should stay until the country is stable. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

• Maryland: Obama leads McCain 60 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided. the margin of error is 4 points. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

• New York: Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 24-25. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 has the race here the closest it's been in six months, with Obama leading McCain 55 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 37 percent and McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Siena College poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead by only 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. That was down from 8 points in Siena's August poll and 13 points in July. "Voters overwhelmingly say that McCain is more patriotic and has more experience than Obama. By smaller margins, they give McCain the edge on integrity and leadership," says Siena's Steven Greenberg. "A majority of voters say Obama has the advantage on intelligence and compassion. Even Democrats give McCain a wide lead on experience. The only significant difference between men and women on attributes was on leadership. While both say McCain is the better leader, women agree by a smaller margin. Younger voters disagree with older voters on leadership and integrity, with a plurality saying Obama is better on both." Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

• Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

• Vermont: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Safe Republican

• Alabama: McCain leads Obama 60 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22. (A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-18 had McCain ahead 64 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain led among white voters (76 percent of the sample) by 79 percent to 19 percent while Obama led among blacks (21 percent of the sample) 89 percent to 10 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Alaska: Four polls show the choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as JMcCain's running mate has clearly turned things around here. McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 15-17. The margin of error is 4 points. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. McCain had led by 5 points in a Rasmussen Reports poll in July but now Rasmussen's new poll, conducted Sept. 9, had him ahead 64 percent to 33 percent with 3 percent undecided. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent compared to 45 percent who see him positively. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

• Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Safe Republican.

• Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

• Kansas: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22. McCain is down 5 points and Obama up 6 points since the last survey. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 7-10 had McCain ahead 63 percent to 31 percent with 6 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

• Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22. A Research 200 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 37 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. An [American Research Group survey] conducted Sept. 8-12 has McCain ahead of Obama 57 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent opting for "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

• Mississippi: McCain's lead over Obama has narrowed to 52 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent McCain had led by 13 points in August. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 62 percent to 35 percent while Obama's are 51 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. McCain's lead among white voters is 79 percent to 16 percent while Obama leads among blacks 98 percent to 2 percent. Unlike some other states where Sarah Palin's ratings are falling, she is seen favorably here by 64 percent. Mississippians trust McCain more both on the economy and national security. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain took 81 percent of the white vote. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

• Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

• North Dakota: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-17. The margin of error is 4 points. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. Safe Republican.

• Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 64 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 28-29. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-18 had McCain ahead 61 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided in. the margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11 had McCain ahead 63 percent to 32 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. McCain is viewed favorably by 72 percent of voters and unfavorably by 26 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 60 percent and favorably by 37 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

• South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among unaffiliated voters, but that's half the margin he had in the last Rasmussen survey. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's are 51 percent to 48 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had McCain ahead by 59 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had 96 percent of Republicans solidly in back of him while Obama had the support of 82 percent of Democrats. McCain has an 18 point lead among independents (20 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Wyoming: McCain leads Obama 66 percent to 28 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 put McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.