Poll Tracker

No Clear Favorite:

• Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, is statistically-tied with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, leading him 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker's favorable to unfavorably numbers are 59 percent to 36 percent compared to 51 percent to 44 percent for Musgrove. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Wicker ahead 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

• North Carolina: Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is leading Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole 46 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Christopher Cole and 10 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 28-29. The margin of error is 3 percent. As in its poll of McCain and Obama in the state, PPP says concern over the economy is contributing to the Democrats' strength and if the Republicans can't get traction on this and other issues, Democrats are headed to victory. Hagan now trails Dole by just 9 points with white voters, leaving Dole well short of the margin a Republican needs to overcome the overwhelming black vote for Democrats. Hagan has expanded her lead with independents from 9 points to 14. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23 gave Hagan a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 45 percent lead over Dole with 2 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. Dole's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 52 percent to 44 percent while Hagan's was 51 percent to 39 percent. An Elon University poll conducted Sept. 15-18 has Hagan and Dole tied at 35 percent each. Forty-eight percent voiced dissatisfaction with Dole, a jump of 22 points since the last survey in April. A [Research 2000 poll] conducted Sept. 8-10 has Dole ahead by 48 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. CQ Politics rates the race as "No Clear Favorite."

Leans Democratic

• Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has seen his August leads over Republican Ted Stevens drop in some polls, but he leads in the latest Research 200 survey conducted Sept. 15-17 by 50 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Begich's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 56 percent to 32 percent while Stevens is now viewed unfavorably by 56 percent and favorably by 40 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had Begich ahead by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Stevens' favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 45 percent compared to 61 percent to 34 percent for Begich.. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

• Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall has just a 46 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer with 4 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. The margin of error is 4 points. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 44 percent while Schaffer's is 45 percent to 43 percent. Udall had led in this poll by 7 points in August. Udall still maintains a 13 point advantage among unaffiliated voters. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Udall ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.6 percent. Udall had an 18 point lead among independents. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

• Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, opened a 54 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports pollconducted Sept. 25. Two percent chose "other" and 3 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Landrieu's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 61 percent to 36 percent and Kennedy's are 50 percent to 39 percent. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

• New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, has swapped the lead again with Republican incumbent John Sununu after Sununu pushed past her by 7 points last month in a Rasmussen Reports poll. But the latest Rasmussen poll conducted Oct. 1 has Shaheen leading 50 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Shaheen's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 54 percent to 45 percent while Sununu's are 51 percent to 47 percent. She is benefiting from a 16 point lead among unaffiliated voters and a 17 point lead among women. Sununu has a 7 point lead among men. A WMUR/Granite State poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Shaheen ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Sununu's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 44 percent to 37 percent while Shaheen's were 47 percent to 40 percent. A CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Leans Republican

• Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins has opened comfortable leads in recent polls. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 22-23 had Collins ahead 55 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Collins leads in about every demographic category and among independents. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17 had her leading Rep. Tom Allen 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Her favorable to unfavorable numbers were 66 percent to 32 percent while Allen's were 55 percent to 40 percent. A Research 2000 survey conducted Sept. 8-10 put her ahead 57 percent to 38 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

• Minnesota: Republican first-termer Norm Coleman leads Democrat Al Franken 43 percent to 33 percent with 19 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 5 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 30 - Oct. 1. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. The SurveyUSA polls have pretty consistently shown higher results for Barkley than the others. Coleman draws support of 39 percent of independents, Barkley gets 31 percent and Franken has 26 percent. Compared to its poll three weeks ago, Franken is down 10 points, Coleman is up 2 points and Barkley is up 5 points. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Coleman ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. This poll did not include Barkley. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Sept. 22 had Coleman ahead 48 percent to 47 percent with Barkley getting 3 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

• Oregon: Two-term Republican Gordon Smith is in a statistical tie with Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, with Merkley ahead 44 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent for Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow and 3 percent undecided in a [SurveyUSA poll] conducted Sept. 22-23. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Independents line up 45 percent for Merkley, 36 percent for Smith and 15 percent for Brownlow. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 also had the two statistically-tied with Smith leading 46 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Smith's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 46 percent while Merkley is viewed unfavorably by 46 percent and favorably by 45 percent. For more background on the race, and Smith's efforts to distance himself from the Bush administration and his party, see our story "Parties Debate Smith's Independence on the Campaign Trail" and the Washington Post's "On Obama's Coattails, an Uninvited Rider." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Democrat Favored

• New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 51 percent to 38 percent with 9 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 27-29. The margin of error is 4 points. A Marist Poll conducted Sept. 5-8 had Lautenberg ahead 51 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided among likely voters sampled. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

• New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall is leading Rep. Steven Pearce 55 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 1. The margin of error is 4 points. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 40 percent while Pearce is viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 29-30 had Udall ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Udall had a modest lead among white voters but a 71 percent to 27 percent lead among Hispanics who make up 31 percent of the sample. His support among his own party was 8 points higher than Pearce has with Republicans, and he led among independents 60 percent to 34 percent. Retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici had held this seat since 1973. CQ Politics is changing the rating on this race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

• Virginia: In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a big lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, running ahead of him 61 percent to 31 percent among likely voters with 5 percent expressing no opinion in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 18-21. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 12-14 had him ahead 57 percent to 34 percent . A Christopher Newport University poll released Sept. 17 has Warner ahead 54 percent to 30 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Democrat Favored."

Republican Favored

• Georgia: First term Republican Saxby Chambliss leads Democrat Jim Martin , an Atlanta attorney and former legislator, by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian Allen Buckley and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. There no huge differences in their gender and age group support except for voters over 65 who favor Chambliss by 14 points. White voters (67 percent of the sample) back Chambliss 63 percent to 27 percent while Martin leads among black voters (25 percent of the sample) by 84 percent to 7 percent. Chambliss has a 15 point lead among independents who make up 16 percent of the vote. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll take two weeks earlier, Chambliss is down 7 points and Martin is up by 8. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Chambliss ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for Buckley and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Chambliss' favorable to unfavorable ratio was 59 percent to 31 percent, while Martin's is 49 percent to 32 percent, but being lesser known, 18 percent said they were "not sure" about Martin compared to 10 percent for Chambliss. CQ Politics rates this race Republican Favored.

• Kansas: Two-term Republican Pat Roberts appears safely ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. He leads him 55 percent to 35 percent in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18 had Roberts ahead 58 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided . The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

• Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's leads Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, by 51 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McConnell's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 40 percent while Lunsford is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent and favorably by 43 percent. This poll stands in contrast to a Mason-Dixon "Bluegrass Poll" conducted Sept. 22-25 for the Louisville Courier-Journal that had the two tied at 41 percent each among likely voters. The margin of error is 3.7 points. However, that poll said more than 60 percent of McConnell voters characterized their support for him as "strong," compared with 43 percent of those who supported Lunsford. And 20 percent of Lunsford voters said they might change their minds by Election Day, while only 16 percent of McConnell voters said they might switch. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22 found that McConnell's lead had dropped to only 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. On the issue of the economy, McConnell had a 6 point lead six weeks ago and trailed Lunsford by 9 points. McConnell's 11 point lead among women vanished. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

• Nebraska: Republican Mike Johanns, a former governor and Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush administration, leads Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and professor, by 52 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 30. Johanns is regarded favorably by 59 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for Kleeb. Johanns had led by 25 points in July and enjoyed a larger favorability margin over Kleeb. Johanns is hoping to succeed fellow Republican Chuck Hagel, who is retiring. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

• Oklahoma: Two-term Republican Sen. James Inhofe leads Democratic State Sen. Andrew Rice 53 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent for independent Stephen Wallace and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept.28-29. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

• Texas: Republican John Cornyn, seeking a second term, leads Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega 50 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Cornyn's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 57 percent to 30 percent while Noriega's is 46 percent to 36 percent. Both are in the double-digits for those who answered "not sure." CQ Politics is rating this race "Republican Favored."

Safe Democrat

• Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 59 percent to 35 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17. That's a pick-up of a few points for Sauerberg who still suffers from a name recognition problem since 28 percent of voters say they are not sure whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

• Iowa: Democrat Tom Harkin, looking for a 5th term, leads businessman Christopher Reed 54 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. Reed suffers, among other things, from the fact that a quarter of the voters don't know enough about him to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. Harkin's margin represents a 10 point drop from Rasmussen's last poll, but he is still expected to win comfortably. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 17-18 had Harkin ahead 58 percent to 34 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.

• Massachusetts: Democratic Sen. John Kerry leads Jeff Beatty, whose biography describes him as a Special Forces veteran, FBI special agent and CIA operations officer, by 56 percent to 29 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 5. Kerry is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters while Beatty's name recognition problem is underlined by the fact that 41 percent answer "not sure" on this question. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

• Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 51 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. A Detroit News/WXYZ poll conducted Aug. 18-21 had Levin ahead 59 percent to 27 percent with a 4 point margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 7 had Levin ahead 56 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Levin has a 61 percent favorability rating to Hoogendyk's 41 percent, but the more significant number for the challenger is that 29 percent have no opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.".

• South Dakota: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson leads Republican State Rep. Joel Dykstra 60 percent to 35 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. Johnson, who has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in late 2006, is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters while the most important number Dykstra's favorability rating is the 22 percent who don't know enough to have an opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Safe Republican

• Alabama: Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures 59 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-17 had Sessions ahead by 66 percent to 31 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Safe Republican."

• Idaho: Republican Jim Risch, the state's lieutenant governor, leads former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco 58 percent to 30 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. Risch is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 23 percent, while LaRocco's numbers are 42 percent respectively. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican" because of the state's strong conservative tradition.

• South Carolina: First term Republican Lindsey Graham leads Democrat Bob Conley, a commercial pilot, by 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided in a [Rasmussen Reports poll] conducted Sept. 18. Graham's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 38 percent and Conley's are 42 percent to 32 percent, but a full quarter of voters don't know enough about him to express an opinion. Graham is supported by 76 percent of Republicans and Conley by 67 percent of Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."