Poll Tracker

Alabama: Two-term Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions leads Democrat Vivian Davis Figures 59 percent to 30 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-17 had Sessions ahead by 66 percent to 31 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Safe Republican."

Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, is statistically tied with Republican Ted Stevens 46 percent to 45 percent in an Ivan Moore poll Oct. 17-19. Begich's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 55 percent to 31 percent, a negative swing of 7 points since early October. Stevens' favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 41 percent, slipping 2 points. Moore says, "Stevens' rating has been very stable over the last six weeks, despite both his ongoing trial in Washington DC and being a target of a barrage of negative media funded by the DSCC... Given the closeness of the race, it appears that Alaskans are giving Stevens the benefit of the doubt for now, and are reserving judgment until a verdict is read in his trial." A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-16 had Begich ahead 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. In September, Begich had a 6 point lead in this poll. Begich's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 53 percent to 37 percent while Stevens was viewed unfavorably by 51 percent and favorably by 44 percent. Begich led 16 points among independents who comprised 47 percent of the sample. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Colorado: Democrat Mark Udall is leading Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer 51 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16. The margin of error is 4 points. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 53 percent to 44 percent while Schaffer is seen unfavorably by 48 percent and favorably by 47 percent. The candidates run closely among men but Udall leads by 9 points among women and 25 points among unaffiliated voters. a Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 8-12 had Udall ahead 54 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Oct. 10-13 had Udall ahead 45 percent to 34 percent with 4 percent preferring other candidates and 15 percent undecided. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 8-10 had Udall ahead 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.7 percent. Udall had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead with voters who named the economy as their top concern. PPP says he enjoyed "very strong across the board support- a 14 point lead with women, a 5 point lead with men, a 25 point lead with independents, leads with voters in every racial group, and a lead with three out of four age categories." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Georgia: First term Republican Saxby Chambliss is statistically-tied with Democrat Jim Martin , an Atlanta attorney and former legislator, leading him 46 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent for Libertarian Allen Buckley and 5 percent undecided in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Oct. 20-22. The margin of error is 3 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Chambliss leading 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent for Buckley and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Chambliss led 66 percent to 26 percent among white voters (66 percent of the sample) while Martin led 86 percent to 6 percent among blacks (27 percent of the sample). A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 also had this tight, with Chambliss leading 46 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent for and 5 percent undecided. Chambliss leads Martin among whites (67 percent of the sample) by 59 percent to 31 percent while Martin leads among blacks (26 percent of the sample) by 77 percent to 12 percent. SurveyUSA says: "Buckley appears to take votes from Chambliss. If Buckley's support collapses on Election Day, as often happens with 3rd-party candidates, Chambliss may outperform these results. Conversely, if Democrat Barack Obama at the top of the ticket causes the electorate in Georgia to be more than 26 percent black ... Martin may outperform these numbers."A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 had Chambliss ahead by 50 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Buckley and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Chambliss' favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 37 percent while Martin's was 45 percent to 38 percent with 17 percent not knowing enough about him to be sure. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Republican.

Idaho: Republican Jim Risch, the state's lieutenant governor, leads former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco 58 percent to 30 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. Risch is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 23 percent, while LaRocco's numbers are 42 percent respectively. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican" because of the state's strong conservative tradition.

Illinois: Two-term Democrat Richard Durbin leads Republican Steven Sauerberg, a physician, 62 percent to 31 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. Twenty-eight percent of voters don't know enough about Sauerberg to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Iowa: Democrat Tom Harkin, looking for a 5th term, leads businessman Christopher Reed 54 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 25. Reed suffers, among other things, from the fact that a quarter of the voters don't know enough about him to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. Harkin's margin represents a 10 point drop from Rasmussen's last poll, but he is still expected to win comfortably. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 17-18 had Harkin ahead 58 percent to 34 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.

Kansas: Two-term Republican Pat Roberts appears safely ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Jim Slattery. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 21-22 has Roberts ahead 57 percent to 35 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13 had Roberts ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. Roberts' favorable to unfavorable ratio was 57 percent to 34 percent while Slattery was viewed unfavorably by 50 percent and favorably by 36 percent with 14 percent not knowing enough about him to have an opinion. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas was George McGill who was elected in 1930 to replace Charles Curtis who had resigned to become Herbert Hoover's vice president, was re-elected in 1932 and served until 1939. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Kentucky: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's is leading Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford), a Louisville businessman, 47 percent to 43 percent with 10 percent undecided in a Lexington Herald Leader/WKYT-TV poll conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. Lunsford suffers from lower party support, drawing the backing of 75 percent of Democrats (46 percent of the sample) compared to McConnell's 87 percent of Republicans (38 percent of the sample). McConnell leads by 6 points among independents (16 percent of the sample). McConnell's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 48 percent to 48 percent while Lunsford's is 467 percent to 45 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21 had McConnell ahead 50 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Earlier this month, McConnell had a 9 point lead in Rasmussen's polling. McConnell's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 54 percent to 42 percent while Lunsford was seen unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 46 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-20 had McConnell tied with Lunsford at 48 percent each with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. McConnell led by 10 points among men and Lunsford by 11 points among women. They were statistically even among white voters, while Lunsford led 96 percent to 4 percent among blacks who make up 7 percent of the sample. Lunsford had a 6 point lead among independents. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, seeking a third term, opened a 54 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in a Rasmussen Reports pollconducted Sept. 25. Two percent chose "other" and 3 percent were undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In June, Rasmussen had these two within the margin of error is each other with Landrieu leading by 3 points. Landrieu's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 61 percent to 36 percent and Kennedy's are 50 percent to 39 percent. CQ Politics currently rates the race "Leans Democratic."

Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins is leading Rep. Tom Allen 54 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided in a Critical Insights poll conducted Oct. 16-19. The margin of error is 4.7 percent. Collins gets 85 percent support from her own party and 19 percent from Democrats while Allen draws 74 percent from Democrats. Collins leads among independents by 21 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 19-20 had Collins ahead 54 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Collins led among independents, 32 percent of the sample, by 14 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 2 had Collins ahead 53 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. She led by 13 points in Rasmussens's last poll. Her favorable to unfavorable numbers were 67 percent to 33 percent while Allen's were 52 percent to 45 percent. She has stronger support among fellow Republicans (94 percent) than Allen does in his party (80 percent). CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Massachusetts: Democratic Sen. John Kerry leads Jeff Beatty, whose biography describes him as a Special Forces veteran, FBI special agent and CIA operations officer, by 63 percent to 31 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. Kerry is viewed favorably by 65 percent of voters while Beatty's name recognition problem is underlined by the fact that 31 percent answer "not sure" on this question. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 61 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Minnesota: Democrat Al Franken is leading Republican first-termer Norm Coleman 41 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll published Oct. 24. Rasmussen says, "Perhaps the most ominous number in the survey for Coleman is that his favorable ratings are lower than those for either of his opponents. Just 46 percent of Minnesota voters have a favorable opinion of the incumbent senator. Fifty-two percent (52 percent) have a favorable opinion of Barkley, while 51 percent say the same about Franken." But of the unfavorables for Franken, 31 percent strongly dislike him. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 16-18 had Coleman leading 41 percent to 39 percent with 18 percent for Barkley. and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. A Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 8-12 also had the race a statistical tie, with Coleman leading 39 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent for Barkley and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "No Clear Favorite."

Mississippi: Roger Wicker, appointed to fill out the term of retired Sen. Trent Lott, is statistically-tied with former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Wicker had led in this poll in early September by 5 points. Wicker's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 42 percent while Musgrove's is 52 percent to 43 percent. Wicker leads 72 percent to 24 percent among white voters (62 percent of the sample) while Musgrove leads among black voters (37 percentof the sample) 83 percent to 5 percent. The pollster says "Musgrove is in better shape" than he might have been because he has in fact been able to garney that much of the white vote. The two men were also statistically tied in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 30 with Wicker ahead 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Wicker's favorable to unfavorably numbers were 59 percent to 36 percent compared to 51 percent to 44 percent for Musgrove. Thad Cochran, seeking a sixth term, was way out in front in his race against former state legislator Erik Fleming 59 percent to 32 percent in Rasmussen's June poll. CQ Politics rates Cochran's race "Safe Republican" and the Wicker-Musgrove contest as "No Clear Favorite."

Nebraska: Republican Mike Johanns, a former governor and Secretary of Agriculture in the Bush administration, leads Democrat Scott Kleeb, a rancher and professor, by 52 percent to 38 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 30. Johanns is regarded favorably by 59 percent of voters compared to 52 percent for Kleeb. Johanns had led by 25 points in July and enjoyed a larger favorability margin over Kleeb. Johanns is hoping to succeed fellow Republican Chuck Hagel, who is retiring. CQ Politics rates the race "Republican Favored."

New Hampshire: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor, leads Republican incumbent John Sununu 49 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 12 percent undecided in a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll conducted Oct. 24-26. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. A Boston Globe poll conducted Oct. 18-22 had Shaheen ahead 49 percent to 36 with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 points. The Globe said Shaheen "is leading in every income level and in every age group but those 65 and older. She also leads everywhere in the state except for the more conservative areas on the Massachusetts border, where Sununu has a 2-point advantage." An American Research Group poll conducted Oct. 6-8 had Shaheen ahead 42 percent with 7 percent undecided, The margin of error was 4 points. This poll did not include Libertarian Ken Blevens. Shaheen has a 20 point lead among unaffiliated voters. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 4-5 had Shaheen ahead 48 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent for Blevens and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. The pollster said Blevens appeared to be drawing votes away from Sununu. Shaheen had a 17 point lead among women and statistically significant leads among all age groups except the 35 to 49 set. A CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 55 percent to 33 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 16-19. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 11-12 had Lautenberg leading 51 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent preferring someone else and 3 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 7 had Lautenberg ahead 51 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent preferring other and 11 percent still undecided. Rasmussen noted: "Nearly one-out-of-five voters (19 percent) are not sure what they think of Zimmer, even though he has served in Congress and the state legislature and ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1996." CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall is leading Rep. Steven Pearce 57 percent to 37 percent with 2 percent 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 13. The margin of error is 4 points. Udall's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 43 percent while Pearce is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 43 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 29-30 had Udall ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Udall had a modest lead among white voters but a 71 percent to 27 percent lead among Hispanics who make up 31 percent of the sample. His support among his own party was 8 points higher than Pearce has with Republicans, and he led among independents 60 percent to 34 percent. Retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici had held this seat since 1973. CQ rates this race "Democrat Favored."

North Carolina: Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is leading Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole Libertarian Party candidate 48 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent for Christopher Cole and 3 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 25-26. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. PPP says Dole has lost much of the bipartisan support she had when she ran in 2002 and that 18% of respondents who voted for Dole last time are now backing Hagan. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Oct. 18-20 had Hagan ahead 44 percent to 41 percent among likely voters with 4 percent for Cole and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. "The volume and tone of attack ads in this race continues to increase and our poll shows more voters shifting to undecided," said Francis De Luca of Civitas. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 8 had Hagan ahead 49 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Hagan's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 50 percent to 45 percent while Dole's was 49 percent to 49 percent. Rasmussen said: "Dole led this race for much of the year, but has fallen behind ever since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the economic crisis on Wall Street." CQ Politics rates the race as "No Clear Favorite."

Oklahoma: Two-term Republican Sen. James Inhofe leads Democratic State Sen. Andrew Rice 53 percent to 37 percent with 7 percent for independent Stephen Wallace and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept.28-29. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored."

Oregon: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, is leading two-term Republican Gordon Smith 49 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent for Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow and 4 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Merkley has a 16 point lead among women and a 22 point lead among voters under 34 who comprise 23 percent of the sample. Merkley leads by 6 percent among independents. He draws 12 percent of Republican voters while Smith attracts 17 percent of Democrats. Brownlow takes 5 percent from the Republicans and 2 percent from the Democrats. A Riley Research poll conducted Oct.10-20 had Merkley leading 36 percent to 35 percent with 4 percent for Brownlow and 23 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.39 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Merkley ahead 47 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was percent. Merkley's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 47 percent to 43 percent while Smith was seen unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 40 percent. The two ran evenly among men but Merkley had a 12 point advantage among women. The poll did not include Brownlow. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 14 had the two tied at 47 percent each, with 4 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided . Smith's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 45 percent to 43 percent while Merkley's was 49 percent to 48 percent. Smith go backing of 85 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats, while Merkley drew support from 75 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of Republicans. Rasmussen did not include Brownlow either. CQ Politics rates this race "No Clear Favorite."

South Carolina: First term Republican Lindsey Graham leads Democrat Bob Conley, a commercial pilot, by 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided in a [Rasmussen Reports poll] conducted Sept. 18. Graham's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 38 percent and Conley's are 42 percent to 32 percent, but a full quarter of voters don't know enough about him to express an opinion. Graham is supported by 76 percent of Republicans and Conley by 67 percent of Democrats. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."

South Dakota: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson leads Republican State Rep. Joel Dykstra 60 percent to 35 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 9. Johnson, who has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in late 2006, is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters while the most important number Dykstra's favorability rating is the 22 percent who don't know enough to have an opinion. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat."

Tennessee" Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander leads Democratic challenger Robert Tuke, a lawyer, by 62 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16. CQ Politics rates this race "Republican Favored"

Texas: Republican John Cornyn, seeking a second term, leads Democratic State Rep. Rick Noriega 55 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. This is a gain of 8 points for Cornyn. Cornyn's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 32 percent while Noriega's is 43 percent to 42 percent with 16 percent not knowing enough about him to be sure. A Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-15 had Cornyn leading 50 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent for Libertarian Yvonne Adams and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. CQ Politics is rating this race "Republican Favored."

Virginia: In a race between former governors, Democrat Mark Warner continues to hold a big lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, running ahead of him by 61 percent to 31 percent in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 22-25. Gilmore has picked up no ground on Warner in this or other polls. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 25-26 had Warner Ahead 63 percent to 32 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 16 had Warner ahead 61 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 18-20 had Warner ahead by 60 percent to 36 percent. CQ Politics rates the race "Safe Democratic."

Wyoming: Republican Sen. John Barrasso, appointed in 2007 to fill the vacancy created by the death of Sen. Craig Thomas, is leading Democrat Nick Carter, a lawyer and former prosecutor, by 57 percent to 36 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 14-16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Republican."