The "Rebound" Bounce and the Palin Effect

September 8, 2008 2:15 PM | | Comments (0)

The John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket showed what a USA Today/Gallup poll called a "rebound" bounce in the wake of the GOP convention, with a 50 percent to 46 percent lead among registered voters over Barack Obama-Joseph Biden in a survey conducted Sept. 5-7. Five percent expressed no opinion. The margin of error is 3 points. However, Gallup says that lead is a larger 54 percent to 44 percent when the survey is limited to likely voters.

Perhaps more important than the bounce, as post-convention bounces often prove temporary, was the fact that the Republican ticket, infused by excitement among supporters over the selection of Palin, is now generating more far enthusiasm than it had been. In August, Republicans who said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting hovered in the 40 percent range, compared to about 60 percent for Democrats, but that number has now shot up to 60 percent. Democrats more enthusiastic about voting now number 67 percent. (See the Washington Post piece today, "For the Republican Base, Palin Pick is Energizing"). According to the Los Angeles Times, she has even energized McCain himself, ("McCain Finds His Muse in Palin").

Turning to Palin, her convention speech was a far bigger hit than McCain's. Sixty percent of registered voters call it excellent or good compared to 47 percent for McCain.

Other findings on Palin:

  • Thirty-six percent said the choice of Palin was excellent, a higher number than Biden's, but a about a quarter of voters called it "poor."
  • Although 49 percent of voters say the selection of Palin will have no effect on their decision on how to vote, the number of those more or less likely to vote for McCain because of her rose - with 29 percent saying they were more likely, and 21 percent less likely - a sign that she has caused some polarization.
  • Forty-eight percent say she is qualified to serve as President compared to 44 percent who do not. While more people expressed an opinion than they did at the time of her selection, now that more is known about her, the ratio of those thinking her qualified or not did not change much.
  • Fifty-five percent of voters said the choice of Palin reflects favorably on McCain's decision-making compared to 40 percent who said it did not.

A Diageo/Hotline poll conducted over the weekend had these Palin findings:

  • 55 percent of voters say that Sarah Palin "seems like a different kind of leader who offers a fresh, new perspective and inspires others."
  • 27 percent of voters say that Palin "seems like just another politician who offers no new ideas and engages in negative politics."

Categories: Gallup, Presidential

Tags: McCain Palin Obama enthusiasm

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