In contrast to a CNN poll yesterday that had the presidential race as a dead heat, two polls today showed Barack Obama getting bounces of 7 and 8 points from the Democratic convention.
A CBS News poll conducted Aug. 29-31 put Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent lead with 2 percent saying they won't vote and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. That compares to the 3 point lead Obama had before the Democratic convention. This was CBS' first poll that included the running mates of Obama and McCain, but more than 7 of 10 voters said of both tickets that the VP selections would make no difference in their choice.
A USA Today/Gallup poll released this afternoon had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent compared to a 4 point lead before the convention. The margin of error is 2 points.
Gallup says the median increase for candidates after their conventions going back to 1964 has been 5 points, ranging from John Kerry's anti-bounce of minus one point to Bill Clinton's high of 16 points in 1992. Of course, the Republicans have not completed their convention and how that might affect the longevity of Obama's bounce is complicated by a variety of factors: the occurence this year of conventions that were immediately back-to-back and the Hurricane Gustav story causing the GOP conclave to be truncated.
Details of the CBS poll:
Obama runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 14 points among women. He has also overcome a 12 point deficit among independents before the convention to lead McCain by 6 points.
On the "enthusiasm gap," the convention gave Obama a boost, at least for now, from 48 percent before the convention to 67 percent now, while McCain's numbers were unchanged with about a quarter of his supporters expressing enthusiasm.
One of the points Obama tried to drive him in his acceptance speech in terms of the economic woes afflicting many Americans was that "John McCain doesn't get it" and that he does. That seemed to work - again, at least for now - with 63 percent saying that Obama understands the needs and problems of people "like you" compared to 41 percent for McCain. Obama also picked up 9 points when voters were asked if Obama had made it clear what he would do as President.
This good news for Obama is tempered by two areas where he still faces a challenge. Voters remain evenly divided on whether he is ready to be President and, on the question of whether each candidate would be an effective commander-in-chief, 45 percent said it was "very likely" in McCain's case compared to 29 percent for Obama.
The poll also said that Clinton supporters are splitting 58 percent for Obama and 22 percent for McCain.
Details of the USA Today/Gallup poll:
The number of undecided voters has gone down from 30 percent before the Democratic convention to 21 percent.
Obama has caught up to McCain in being perceived as a "strong and decisive leader.
Voters rate Obama and McCain equally on handling Iraq, but McCain's one-time 22 point lead over Obama when it came to handling terrorism has fallen to 9 points. Obama has a 19 point lead on the economy.
The number of people worried about Obama's experience has dropped 7 points, but still remains sizable at 50 percent.
Democrats describe themselves as enthusiastic by a margin of 57 percent to 28 percent while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say by 47 percent to 39 percent that they are less enthusiastic than usual.
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Comments
The USA-T/Gallup poll is a 3 point bounce, not a 7 point bounce, and the CBS poll is a 5 point bounce, not an 8 point bounce.
Posted by: Eric
| September 1, 2008 8:25 PM
Except that's completely invalid because you're discounting the drop in support for McCain. So, in short, you're wrong.
Posted by: Jon
| September 1, 2008 10:02 PM
Jon, were you talking to me? If so, here's an explanation:
USAToday:
Was a 4-point lead, now it's a 7-point lead; a 3-point bounce
CBS
Was a 3-point lead, not it's an 8-point lead; a 5-point bounce.
See, the bounce is the current lead minus the previous lead. Don't sweat it, CQ was also confused.
Posted by: Eric
| September 2, 2008 2:07 PM
Ah, my apologies. You are correct, I misunderstood as well.
Posted by: Jon
| September 2, 2008 5:21 PM
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