Poll Tracker

No Clear Favorite

• Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 23 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. Obama had a 13 point lead among independents and the pollster said the state is "leaning heavily" in Obama's direction. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 20-21 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. PPP says part of the reason is a "precipitous drop" in Sarah Palin's popularity during the weeks after the GOP convention. "It seems like the more voters have learned about Sarah Palin the less they've liked her," PPP said. Obama has also significantly increased his lead among independents who make up about a quarter of the vote and has a 21 point lead among Hispanics who comprise 14 percent of the sample. Obama leads McCain among voters who cite economy as the top issue by 61 percent to 34 percent and on Iraq by 54 percent to 41 percent. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 has Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Obama has leads of18 and 20 points respectively on the issues of the war and the economy while McCain is favored by 12 points on energy policy. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 33 percent while McCain's is 56 percent to 35 percent. A majority of voters think McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one, but it is more polarizing than Obama's choice of Joseph Biden with higher numbers saying it would make them more or less likely to vote Republican. Thirty percent say McCain's age makes it less likely they would vote for him. Obama is the choice for bringing change by 46 percent to 22 percent. No one dominates on the question of voters believing they will be better off if one or the other wins: 34 percent choose Obama on this score, 29 percent say McCain and 27 percent say neither. Voters believe 47 percent to 41 percent that Obama better understands the economy and 63 percent to 29 percent that McCain knows foreign policy better. A Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent . The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Coloradans considered McCain more prepared to lead the country than Obama by 57 percent to 37 percent while Obama led 49 percent to 44 percent when voters were asked who better understands their needs. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 17 had Obama over McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. (An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 10-13 had McCain ahead 46 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. No clear favorite.

• Florida: McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3 percent. An NBC News/Mason Dixon poll conducted Sept. 16-18Obama leads McCain by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 47 percent to 37 percent while McCain's was 46 percent to 35 percent. Obama had significant leads among voters under 49 and was within 5 points of McCain among older voters. McCain led by 8 points among white voters, 6 points among Hispanics while Obama led by 83 points among black voters. Sarah Palin was a far more polarizing choice than Joseph Biden in terms of the number of voters who said that her selection made them more or less likely to vote Republican (overall, 36 percent said she made it more likely they would vote for the ticket and 23 percent said less likely). Obama was preferred by 5 points on the economy and by 4 points on reforming government, while McCain had an 18 point margin among those who trust him more on national security. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll had McCain ahead for the second week in a row. McCain led 51 percent to 46 percent in the poll, conducted Sept. 21. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain led by 16 points among unaffiliated voters. Voters trusted McCain more by 52 percent to 43 percent and both candidates came out about even on who voters think would better handle the economy. A Miami Herald poll conducted Sept. 15-17 gave McCain a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent lead over Obama with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. ''Obama is in a position to improve his poll numbers, given the confidence in his handling of the economy,'' said Tom Eldon, one of the pollsters. When asked which candidate was most likely to "improve the economy," Obama topped McCain by 9 points and for those who cited the economy as the top issue, Obama was their choice by 22 points. McCain led Obama by 17 points on the question of who would be the best commander-in-chief, by 14 points on who would best handle the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and he was the choice of 92 percent of voters on who would best deal with terrorism. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept.15-18 had McCain ahead of Obama 46 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had a 15 point lead among whites and a 7 point advantage among Hispanics. He led 11 points among men and trailed Obama by 7 points among women. Only 4 percent of voters said they were very or likely or likely to change their minds. On issues, voters trusted Obama more on the economy (by 8 points), health care (14 points), and Social Security (by 8 points). McCain was trusted more on Iraq (by 8 points), and immigration (by 5 points). The two are statistically tied on dealing with gasoline prices and energy. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had Obama and McCain locked at 44 percent each. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Voters thought McCain is more prepared to lead the country by 52 percent to 38 percent. As in other state and national polls, Obama won on the question of who voters think understands their needs, by 50 percent to 42 percent. McCain leds Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-17. The margin of error was 3.8. McCain's strength is in the northwest, northeast and southwest parts of the state while Obama's power base is in the southeast which includes many transplanted northeasterners. McCain had a 20 point advantage among voters over 65 (27 percent of the sample) and 15 points among whites (73 percent of the sample) and a 19 point advantage among Hispanics (13 percent of the sample). The Hispanic number is the reverse of what was found by Public Policy Polling earlier this month. Obama leads among blacks by 56 points (11 percent of the sample). On the economy, cited as the top issue by 60 percent of Floridians, Obama leads by 10 points. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. No clear favorite.

• Nevada: Several recent polls have McCain in a statistical ties with Obama. A Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 17-21 has McCain at 45.8 percent and Obama at 45.3 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 12-14 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11 had him leading Obama 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's were 53 percent to 46 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Sept. 11 had McCain leading 46 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent . The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. No Clear favorite.

• New Hampshire: A new Marist Institute poll is at some variance with other recent surveys because it shows Obama ahead among likely voters, including leaners, by 51 percent to 45 percent and by a lesser 3 point margin among registered voters. One percent preferred someone else and 3 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 17-21 and has a 3.5 percent margin of error. On the excitement test, 70 percent of Obama supporters say they are enthusiastic about him compared to 49 percent of McCain supporters. Voters believe Obama has the better plan for the economy by 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain has the better record by 48 percent to 35 percent. The top motivator for Obama backers is that they believe he is closer to them on the issues while McCain supporters like him because they think he shares their values and is honest and trustworthy. Voters say by 54 percent to 38 percent Obama has the better plan to bring about change but, by 51 percent to 37 percent, that McCain has the better record. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in. It's McCain's third monthly gain in this survey. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 60 percent to 39 percent while Obama's are 54 percent to 43 percent. A WMUR/Granite State poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. However, the poll noted the fluidity of the race, saying that the number of voters who said they are undecided was significantly higher when the question was worded about how they would vote in November as opposed to how they would vote if the election were held today. "New Hampshire is definitely a state that is up for grabs and will remain so until election day," said poll director Andrew Smith. An [American Research Group survey] conducted Sept. 13-15 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. No clear favorite.

• New Mexico: Obama has pulled out to a 53 percent to 42 percent lead over McCain with 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 17-19. The margin of error is 3 percent. Obama runs about even with McCain among white voters but has a 24 point advantage among Hispanics who make up 39 percent of the sample. McCain's pick of Palin didn't play well here with 46 percent of all voters and 47 percent of independents saying the choice made them less likely to vote Republican. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. McCain did less well here than elsewhere on the question of who was better prepared to lead the country with only a 3 point margin over Obama. Obama led by 11 on the question of who understood the needs and priorities of voters. A [SurveyUSA poll] conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama ahead 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 1 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama has an 18 point lead among voters under 34 and leads in all other age groups except those over 65 where he is statistically tied with McCain. McCain has an 11 point lead among whites (60 percent of the sample) but Obama has a 41 point advantage among Hispanics (31 percent of the sample). Half of the voters cite the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama by 18 points. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Democrats have won three of the last five elections here.* The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. No clear favorite.*

• Ohio: McCain and Obama are tied at 46 percent each with 1 percent preferring "other" and 7 percent undecided in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 23. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 21 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent while McCain's is 56 percent to 42 percent. Voters trust McCain more by 49 percent to 43 percent. Forty-one percent would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President compared to 40 percent for McCain. Voters split about evenly on who would better handle the economy but trust McCain more on national security and terrorism by 55 percent to 41 percent. An Ohio Newspaper Poll conducted Sept. 12-16 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. The poll said the potential for volatility was high given that 19 percent of voters might change their mind by election day. McCain outscored Obama 52 percent to 37 percent on who would better demonstrate good judgment, 50 percent to 32 percent on who was more qualified and 45 percent to 37 percent on who had higher personal and ethical standards. Obama bested McCain 53 percent to 28 percent as far as being personally likeable and 46 percent to 39 percent on who best understood the problems facing Ohio. A Marist Institute poll conducted Sept. 11-15 has Obama in a statistical tie with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent and the numbers reflected likely voters including leaners. The top qualities of Obama for his supporters were commitment to change and being closer to them on the issues. For McCain voters, the top two were sharing their values and being honest. By a lesser margin than many other state and national polls, voters overall favored Obama over McCain by 45 percent to 42 percent on who has a better plan to bring about change and they said 48 percent to 36 percent that McCain has a better record in bringing about change. Sixty-nine percent of Obama backers said they are excited about him compared to 52 percent for McCain. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama is also in a statistical tie with McCain at 45.6 percent to 45.1 percent with 2.3 percent preferring "other" and 4.8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters say Obama is more likely to bring about change by 52.3 percent to 34.8. Both are within the margin of error of each other on who voters think shares their values. Voters say McCain wins the experience race 73.1 percent to 16.5 percent. An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 has McCain locked with Obama at 42 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Ohioans believe McCain is better prepared to lead the country than Obama by 51 percent to 35 percent while saying 47 percent to 37 percent that Obama better understands their needs and priorities. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 also had them statistically tied with Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. The margin of error was 3 points. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted that "economic issues are increasingly dividing voters along income lines," with higher income voters moving towards McCain and lower income voters towards Obama. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 10-13 has McCain ahead of Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain took a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Obama with 7 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 13-14. The margin of error was 3 percent. The two had been tied last month and this was the first time since winter that McCain led in a PPP poll. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there is a troubling factor for Barack Obama of undecided white voters in many of the swing states moving into John McCain's camp." Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. No clear favorite.

Leans Democrat

• Iowa: Obama leads McCain among likely voters, including leaners, by 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in Marist Institute Poll conducted Sept. 18-21. The margin of error is 4 percent. Independents divide evenly among the two. Sixty-eight percent of Obama's supporters say they are energized about their candidate compared to 46 for McCain, with 53 percent of McCain backers saying they are not excited about their choice. Voters say Obama has a better plan for the economy by 50 percent to 37 percent while McCain has a better record on it by 45 percent to 40 percent. The biggest motivator for McCain backers was their belief he shares their values while for Obama supporters, it was the idea he'll bring about change. Overall, voters say by 53 percent to 35 percent Obama has the better plan for change, but by 44 percent to 40 percent that McCain has the better record. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Research 2000's Del Ali attributed some of Obama's lead to all the time he spent in the state during the caucus and primary season. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 17-18 had Obama ahead 54 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. Obama had a 20 point lead among women and a 30 point lead among voters under 34 (23 percent of the sample). Sixty percent of voters chose the economy as the top issue and they favor Obama by 15 points. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama and McCain tied at 44.8 percent each with 2.1 percent preferring other and 6.7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama was viewed as the candidate who can best bring about change by 52 percent to 32.1 percent; voters said he shares their values more than McCain by 45 percent to 41 percent; and, they judge McCain as the more experienced by 74.2 percent to 16.8 percent. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. Leans Democratic.*

• Maine: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17. That's within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain's is 56 percent to 44 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided. A [Research 2000 poll] conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. Leans Democratic.

• Michigan Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney in a CNN/Time/Opinion research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An Inside Michigan Politics poll conducted Sept. 15-19 had McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 43 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. That was a 3 point net loss for Obama since this survey was done last. Obama lost ground with independents, with McCain building a 45 percent to 37 percent lead. Obama had a 54 percent to 36 percent lead among union households, but McCain led among blue collar voters 49 percent to 39 percent. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21 had Obama ahead48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 54 percent to 31 percent while McCain's are 51 percent to 37 percent. Fifty-eight percent think McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one, but she is more polarizing than Joseph Biden, with higher numbers saying the selection would make them more or less likely to vote Republican. A quarter of voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age. Voters believe 40 percent to 21 percent that Obama is more likely to bring change than McCain, but 30 percent believe neither of them will. They say by 32 percent to 25 percent they think they'd be better off under Obama but 34 percent say they will not be better off under either. Voters say Obama better understands the economy by 50 percent to 38 percent, and by 64 percent to 26 percent that McCain better understands foreign policy. A [Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll] conducted Sept. 21 has ahead McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 59 percent to 38 percent while McCain's was 53 percent to 46 percent. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 49 percent to 43 percent. Forty-five percent would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President compared to 37 percent for McCain. Voters preferred Obama on the economy by 10 points and McCain on national security and terrorism by 9 points. An [EPIC-MRA poll] conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama ahead 43 percent to 42 percent with Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader drawing 2 percent each and 10 percent undecided , according to. The margin of error is 4 points. These numbers pretty much mirrored what EPIC-MRA found in July and August. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-19 has leading 48 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided . The margin of error is 4 points. McCain has an 11 point lead among white voters (86 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among blacks (14 percent of the sample) by 89 percent to 2 percent. McCain's support among Republicans is 8 points higher than Obama's among Democrats, and Obama leads by 10 points among independents who make up 27 percent of the sample. AMarist Institute poll conducted Sept. 16-17 had Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent and the numbers included likely voters with leaners. The most important quality of their candidate for Obama supporters was "change" with 33 percent citing that. Twenty-two percent of McCain supporters cited the top qualities as being closer to them on the issues and sharing their values, followed closely by stronger leadership at 21 percent. Obama topped McCain handily, 53 percent to 37 percent, on who voters believe has a better plan to bring about change, but they said by 46 percent to 43 percent that McCain has the better record on bringing about change. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 60 percent to 36 percent, compared to 50 percent to 44 percent for McCain. Sixty-nine percent of Obama supporters were excited about their choice compared to 45 percent for McCain. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama ahead 47.8 percent to 43.8 percent with 1.4 percent choosing "other" and 5.6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters believed Obama would better bring about change by 56.5 percent to 31 percent and that he most shared their values by 45.8 percent to 42.1 percent while McCain was viewed as more experienced 72.5 percent to 16.7 percent. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. Leans Democratic.

• Minnesota: Obama is statistically tied with McCain at 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters with 2 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided in a Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 54 percent to 30 percent while McCain's are 56 percent to 32 percent. Fifty-six percent believe McCain's choice of Sarah Palin was a good one but she is a more polarizing selection with a higher number of voters saying that they are more likely to vote for or against the Republicans than is the case with Joseph Biden. A quarter of voters are concerned about McCain's age. Voters say Obama is more likely to bring change by 43 percent to 24 percent with 28 percent say they don't expect change under either. On the question whether voters believe they will be better off a year from now depending on which one is elected, they split roughly even among the two candidates and the belief that neither will matter. McCain and Obama are tied on who understands the economy better, but McCain leads 64 percent to 24 percent when it comes to who voters think understands foreign policy better. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18 has Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain's is 52 percent to 46 percent. Last month's Rasmussen poll had Obama leading by 4 points. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie with Obama leading 47.3 percent to 44.5 percent with 2.3 percent choosing "other" and 4.7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters say by 51.9 percent to 33.3 percent that Obama will do a better job of bringing about change. They split almost evenly on which candidate most shares their values. And, they say by 73.4 percent to 17.5 percent that McCain wins the experience test. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. Leans Democratic.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent for Ralph Nader in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 21-23 has McCain leading Obama 47 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent. An [American Research Group poll] conducted Sept. 20-22 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had a 10 point lead among independents. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 21 had Obama with a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 45 percent lead over McCain with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 56 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 53 percent to 46 percent. Voters divide about evenly on who they trust more. Forty percent said they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President compared to 36 percent for McCain. Voters prefer Obama on the economy by 7 points and McCain on national security and terrorism by 6 points. An NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll(http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26834482#26834482) reported Sept. 22 had Obama ahead 46 percent to 44 percent. McCain benefited from stronger support among Republicans (80 percent) than Obama got from Democrats (72 percent). Obama led McCain 47 percent to 42 percent on the issue of the economy, and he had an 11 point lead on that issue among undecided voters. Obama led McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided in a Marist Institute poll conducted Sept. 11-15. The margin of error is 3.5 percent and the numbers measure likely voters including leaners. The top quality Obama backers see in him is his commitment to change while McCain voters favor their candidate because he shares their values. Voters overall say by 52 percent to 37 percent that Obama has a better plan for change, but they believe by 47 percent to 40 percent that McCain has the better record for bringing about change. Sixty-nine percent of Obama supporters are excited about their ticket compared to 50 percent for McCain. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has Obama and McCain statistically tied at 45 percent to 44.6 percent with .8 percent choosing "other" and 6.9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. Leans Democrat.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 42 percent among likely voters with 1 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac University poll conducted Sept. 14-21. The margin of error is 2.7 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 53 percent to 31 percent while McCain's are 49 percent to 37 percent. Fifty-seven percent believe McCain made a good choice in picking Sarah Palin, but she is a more polarizing selection than Joseph Biden with more voters saying they are likely to vote for or against the ticket because of her. Voters say Obama is more likely to bring about change than McCain by 45 percent to 22 percent with 27 percent believing neither will. Asked under whom they think they will be better off a year from now, 34 percent said Obama, 27 percent said McCain and 30 percent said it didn't make a difference. Voters believe Obama better understands the economy by 47 percent to 40 percent and that McCain better understands foreign policy by 65 percent to 23 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18-21 had Obama ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in. the margin of error is 4 points. McCain has a 14 point lead among women while Obama has a 12 point advantage among women. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 45.2 percent to 44.3 percent with 1.2 percent choosing other and 7.3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters said Obama was the better candidate to bring about change by 522.2 percent to 32.2 percent. They divided almost evenly on who voters thought shared their values. McCain was judged the more experienced by 75.8 percent to 16.5 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept.13 also has Obama statistically tied with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That represents a steadily shrinking margin for Obama who, in the last two Rasmussen polls, led by 4 and 11 respectively. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 58 percent to 41 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 also shows a close race with Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. Leans Democratic.

Leans Republican

• Indiana: Several polls point to a tight race. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-18 has McCain in a statistical tie with Obama at 47 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain has a 13 point lead among independents who make up about a quarter of the sample. Rasmussen Reports also has the two in a statistical tie with McCain ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 has McCain ahead 46.7 percent to 43.2 percent with 2.4 percent choosing other and 5.1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama is favored 54.1 percent to 30.5 percent as the candidate who can bring about change; McCain is judged the more experienced by 73.4 percent to 17.7 percent, and voters are split on who most shares their values, with McCain leading 42.9 percent to 41.3 percent.An Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A quarter of voters said they could still change their minds. Pollster J. Ann Selzer says the survey "shows the race is slippery in Indiana" and Obama's lead is "fragile." A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had McCain ahead by 51 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. Leans Republican.

• Missouri: McCain is leading Obama 49 percent to 46 percent with 6 percent undecided or split among minor party candidates in a Research 2000 poll conducted published Sept. 20. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Obama's edge over McCain on who voters think would better handle the economy has fallen from 16 points in July to 5 points. McCain continues to hold double-digit leads when it comes to foreign policy and terrorism. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. Leans Republican.

• North Carolina: McCain and Obama are tied at 44 percent each with 2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided in a Civitas Institute poll conducted Sept. 17-20. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. Obama has reversed McCain's lead among unaffiliated voters and is now ahead by 5 points. A [Rasmussen Reports poll] conducted Sept. 18 gave McCain a statistically insignificant 50 percent to 47 percent lead over Obama with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 56 percent to 42 percent while Obama's was 53 percent to 46 percent. Eighty-one percent of Obama supporters were voting for him with enthusiasm while 15 percent were primarily against McCain. Sixty-two percent of McCain backers were enthusiastic about him while 34 percent were mainly against Obama. McCain had the support of 66 percent of white voters while Obama was backed by 98 percent of black voters. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 17-19 also show Obama tied with McCain at 46 percent each with 5 percent for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 percent. PPP said, "There isn't much doubt about what's driving the level of competitiveness...The number of voters listing the economy as their biggest issue...has now jumped to 58 percent. Barack Obama has a 24 point lead with those voters." An Elon University poll conducted Sept. 15-18 has McCain over Obama 41 percent to 35 percent with 20 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Fifty-four percent of voters view McCain favorably compared to 37 percent for Obama. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has McCain ahead of Obama among registered voters 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 13-16 has McCain ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain led Obama 55 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent preferring other and 4 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10. The margin of error was 4 points.. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. Leans Republican.

• Virginia: McCain is in a statistical tie with Obama at 50 percent to 48 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 1 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 45 percent while McCain's are 58 percent to 41 percent. Voters trust McCain more by 4 points. Forty-five percent say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama as President compared to 44 percent for McCain. The two are even on how the voters rate them on the economy and they trust McCain more on national security and terrorism by 4 points. A Washington Post/ABC News conducted Sept. 18-21 has Obama ahead49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent expressing no opinion in a survey of likely voters. The margin of error is 3 points. If Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are included, Obama leads 50 percent to 45 percent with Barr and Nader getting 1 percent each. The poll says Obama "holds a 10-point lead over John McCain among registered voters in trust to handle the economy; a bigger, 23-point advantage in understanding Americans' economic problems; and large head-to-head leads in vote preference among those who cite the economy as their top issue and who express worry about its direction." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 19-21 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. The biggest demographic gaps: Obama had a 16 point lead among women and a 17 point lead among voters under 34 (26 percent of the sample). McCain led by 15 points among whites (73 percent of the sample) and Obama by 86 percent to 14 percent among blacks (18 percent of the sample). An Allstate/National Journal poll conducted Sept. 11-15 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Virginians believe McCain is better prepared to lead the country by 55 percent to 34 percent. On the question of who better understands the needs and priorities of Americans, Obama has a much smaller margin here than most other places, a statistically insignificant 44 percent to 42 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 17 had McCain 48 percent to 46 percent over Obama with 1 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. Leans Republican.

Democrat Favored

• Connecticut: An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 17-19 has Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Obama ahead of McCain by 53 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain picked up a few points here since the last poll. Democrats have won four of the last five elections here. Democrat Favored.

• New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted Sept. 10-14 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. In mid-August, he had led by 10 points. McCain had increased his margin among white voters from 8 points to 19 points. A quarter of all voters and more than a third of independents said it is somewhat or very likely the debates could change their minds. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey." A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama over McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3 points. Voters believed by 49 percent to 40 percent that Obama would better handle the economy while they favor McCain 47 percent to 43 percent on the ability to handle Iraq. Obama's lead over McCain also narrowed in a Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Sept.11-14 that put Obama ahead among likely voters 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama led by 14 points in July. Monmouth's Patrick Murray, like other New Jersey pollsters, cautioned on reading too much into this, saying "Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling but have had problems maintaining that momentum." Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. Democrat Favored.

• Oregon: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 had Obama's lead down to 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 points. In early August Obama had led by 10 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's was 56 percent to 44 percent. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. Democrat Favored.

• Washington State: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-18. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama leading 47 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 51 percent to 35 percent and McCain's is 49 percent to 36 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 10 has McCain trailing by a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent margin with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A month ago, Obama led by 12 in this poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 60 percent to 38 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points.Democrat Favored.

Republican Favored

• Arizona: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last four of five elections. Republican Favored.

• Georgia: McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 39 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-21. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 16 gave McCain a 54 percent to 43 percent lead with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had McCain ahead 57 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 1 percent undecided. McCain leads among white voters (68 percent of the sample) by 77 percent to 20 percent while Obama leads among blacks (26 percent of the sample) by 94 percent to 4 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 18 has McCain ahead 51 percent to 43 percent over Obama with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. That's a 10 point drop for McCain from their previous survey. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. Republican Favored.

• Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 17 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 38 percent with percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. Republican Favored.

• Montana: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-9 has McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. Republican Favored.

• Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 59 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 16-19. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain leads among white voters (86 percent of the sample) by 68 percent to 27 percent while black voters (14 percent of the sample) favor Obama by 93 percent to 4 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. Republican Favored.

• West Virginia: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent for Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 21-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-16 had McCain ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A [Mark Blankenship Enterprises poll] conducted Sept. 6-7 had McCain ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with 17 percent undecided. Republicans won here in 2000 and 2004 while Democrats carried the state in the three elections before that. Republican Favored.

Safe Democrat

• California: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 22. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 48 percent. A Field Poll conducted Sept. 5-14 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent preferring other and 9 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. That lead, although pretty comfortable, was 8 points less than it was in July. On the excitement scale, 67 percent of Obama's supporters described themselves as enthusiastic, up from 51 percent in July. McCain's numbers rose from 17 percent to 47 percent. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. Safe Democrat.

• Delaware: Obama leads McCain in Joseph Biden's home state by 51 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-15.. The margin of error is 4 points. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

• District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13. The District has gone Democratic in the past five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Hawaii: in the state where he was born, Obama leads McCain 68 percent to 27 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 23. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-12 had Obama ahead 63 percent to 32 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Illinois: Home state candidate Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 36 percent in a Research 2000 poll reported Sept. 21 in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, which devoted most of its story to Missouri. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 17 had Obama ahead 56 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 2 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Big Ten Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had Obama ahead 52.9 percent to 37 percent with 2.1 percent preferring "other" and 5.6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. The results included leaners. Voters said McCain was the more experienced by 67.3 percent to 21.4 percent; they believed Obama shared their values more than McCain by 49.4 percent to 37.4 percent; and, they believed Obama was more likely to bring about change by 59.1 percent to 26.6 percent. Fifty-seven percent wanted to set a timetable to withdraw troops from Iraq in 16 months as Obama has proposed, and 34 percent said we should stay until the country is stable. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. Safe Democrat.

• Maryland: Obama is leading McCain 54 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group pollconducted Sept. 17-19. The margin of error is 4 points. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections. Safe Democrat.

• Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22. the margin of error is 4 points. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest. Safe Democrat.

• New York: While a new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 has the race here the closest it's been in six months, it's nowhere near as close as a Siena College poll that preceded it. Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 37 percent and McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 14-16 had Obama ahead of McCain 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Siena College poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead by only 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. That was down from 8 points in Siena's August poll and 13 points in July. "Voters overwhelmingly say that McCain is more patriotic and has more experience than Obama. By smaller margins, they give McCain the edge on integrity and leadership," says Siena's Steven Greenberg. "A majority of voters say Obama has the advantage on intelligence and compassion. Even Democrats give McCain a wide lead on experience. The only significant difference between men and women on attributes was on leadership. While both say McCain is the better leader, women agree by a smaller margin. Younger voters disagree with older voters on leadership and integrity, with a plurality saying Obama is better on both." Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. Safe Democrat.

• Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. Safe Democrat.

• Vermont: Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 18-22. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13 had Obama ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Vermont has voted Democratic in the last four of five elections. Safe Democrat.

Safe Republican

• Alabama: McCain leads Obama 64 percent to 34 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 1 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 16-18. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. McCain leads among white voters (76 percent of the sample) by 79 percent to 19 percent while Obama leads among blacks (21 percent of the sample) 89 percent to 10 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Alaska: Four polls show the choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as JMcCain's running mate has clearly turned things around here. McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 15-17. The margin of error is 4 points. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. McCain had led by 5 points in a Rasmussen Reports poll in July but now Rasmussen's new poll, conducted Sept. 9, had him ahead 64 percent to 33 percent with 3 percent undecided. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent compared to 45 percent who see him positively. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. Safe Republican.

• Arkansas: McCain leads Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 20-22. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. Safe Republican.

• Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Idaho has voted with the GOP in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

• Kansas: McCain is leading Obama 53 percent to 41 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22. McCain is down 5 points and Obama up 6 points since the last survey. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18 had McCain ahead 58 percent to 38 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 7-10 had McCain ahead 63 percent to 31 percent with 6 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. Safe Republican.

• Kentucky: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 21-22. A Research 200 poll conducted Sept. 15-17 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 37 percent in. The margin of error was 4 points. An [American Research Group survey] conducted Sept. 8-12 has McCain ahead of Obama 57 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent opting for "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. Safe Republican.

• Mississippi: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error ws 4 percent. McCain took 81 percent of the white vote. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. Safe Republican.

• Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 60 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 12-17. The margin of error is 4 percent. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here. Safe Republican.

• North Dakota: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-17. The margin of error is 4 points. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. Safe Republican.

• Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 61 percent to 34 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 15-18. the margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11 had McCain ahead 63 percent to 32 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. McCain is viewed favorably by 72 percent of voters and unfavorably by 26 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 60 percent and favorably by 37 percent. A a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 5-7 had McCain ahead 65 percent to 32 percent in. McCain led Obama, mostly by wide margins, in every demographic and issue group except voters under 34 where the two were tied at 48 percent and among black voters who make up only 6 percent of the sample. Republicans have carried the state in the past five elections. Safe Republican.

• South Carolina: McCain is leading Obama 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 18. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain leads by 10 points among unaffiliated voters, but that's half the margin he had in the last Rasmussen survey. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 57 percent to 40 percent while Obama's are 51 percent to 48 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-17 had McCain ahead by 59 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent undecided, according to. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain had 96 percent of Republicans solidly in back of him while Obama had the support of 82 percent of Democrats. McCain has an 18 point lead among independents (20 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• South Dakota: McCain is leading Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Texas: McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. A pre-conventions Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 21 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. Safe Republican.

• Wyoming: McCain leads Obama 66 percent to 28 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 put McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. Safe Republican.