Poll Tracker

Ohio: There are five new polls so far this week showing a competitive race. Obama is statistically tied with McCain, leading 49 percent to 47 percent among registered voters in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16. The margin of error is 3 points. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland noted that "economic issues are increasingly dividing voters along income lines," with higher income voters moving towards McCain and lowerincome voters towards Obama. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 10-13 has McCain ahead of Obama 50 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain took a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Obama with 7 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 13-14. The margin of error was 3 percent. The two had been tied last month and this was the first time since winter that McCain led in a PPP poll. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there is a troubling factor for Barack Obama of undecided white voters in many of the swing states moving into John McCain's camp." A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 14 has McCain ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain had a 7 point lead in its last survey. Undecideds rose 3 points. McCain enjoys 90 percent support among Republicans while Obama gets only 78 percent from Democrats. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 12-14 had McCain ahead of Obama 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. McCain had a 16 point lead among white voters (86 percent of the sample) while Obama led 90 percent to 8 percent among blacks (11 percent of the sample). Fifty-eight percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and they favored Obama by 8 points while 10 percent chose terrorism and they preferred McCain by 96 percent to 3 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 10-13 had McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with minor party candidates drawing 1 percent and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters said they trusted McCain over Obama by 49 percent to 41 percent and, asked which of the four candidates on the presidential tickets are "most like you," Sarah Palin won with 31 percent compared to 22 percent for Obama, 21 percent for McCain and 13 percent for Biden. "McCain is benefiting from Palin identification and empathy as well as a greater sense of Buckeye voter trust," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "However, should the trust firewall in Ohio break down, it could signal the beginning of an electoral blue domino effect there." An Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati, conducted Sept. 5-10, has McCain ahead of Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Poll co-director Eric Rademacher says the race in Ohio "has a long way to go" because as many as 23 percent of voters may still be up for grabs and more Democrats than Republicans say, at the moment, they will cross party lines to vote for the other candidate. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

North Carolina: The polls are all over the lot here on whether McCain has a comfortable lead or in a tight race with Obama. We'll give them to you in the order we got them. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 has McCain ahead of Obama among registered voters 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 13-16 has McCain ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain led Obama 55 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent preferring other and 4 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10. The margin of error was 4 points. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Sept. 6-10 had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Civitas' August poll had McCain ahead by 6. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. That's barely above the 3.9 percent margin of error. PPP said, "A concern for Obama rising out of this poll is that undecided whites have gone from 10% three weeks ago to just 3% now, and two thirds of them have gone into the McCain column." This poll stands in contrast to one a day earlier that showed a huge jump for McCain. SurveyUSA poll, in a poll conducted Sept. 6-8, had McCain ahead 58 percent to 38 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

Indiana: McCain leads Obama by 51 percent to 45 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A a Howey-Gauge poll conducted Aug. 29-30 had McCain ahead by 45 percent to 43 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.1 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19-21 also had the race close with McCain ahead 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 65 percent to 32 percent while Obama's was 52 percent to 44 percent. Obama appeared to be getting some advantage from representing the state next door, Illinois. McCain led by 12 point among men and ran evenly with Obama among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 16-18 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. McCain led by 12 points among men and tied Obama among women. Except for voters under 34 among whom Obama led by 22 points, McCain had healthy leads in all other age groups. McCain had a 12 point lead among white voters. Both men ran fairly evenly among the 45 percent of voters that cite the economy as the top issue, but Obama led him by wide margins among the 12 percent of voters who named health care and the 9 percent who said the top issue is Iraq. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. CQ Politics' Election Forecast Rates this state "Republican Favored."

Wisconsin: Obama is statistically tied with McCain, leading him 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept.13. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. That represents a steadily shrinking margin for Obama who, in the last two Rasmussen polls, led by 4 and 11 respectively. Obama's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 55 percent to 43 percent while McCain's are 58 percent to 41 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16 also shows a close race with Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Aug. 8-10 had Obama leading 47 percent to 42 percent in. The margin of error was three points. A Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll conducted Aug. 3-4 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The modest size of the margin was somewhat surprising given some of the other numbers in the poll. Obama had leads of about 2-to-1 on the two issues that voters identified as the most important, the economy and Iraq. The favorable-to-unfavorable numbers for Obama were 51 percent to 31 percent while McCain's were 46 percent to 37 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. CQ Politics' Election Forecast says Wisconsin "Leans Democratic."

Oregon: McCain has gained on Obama here, with Obama's lead down to 51 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15. The margin of error is 4.5 points. In early August Obama had led by 10 points. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 56 percent to 44 percent. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the Oregon contest as "Democrat Favored."

California: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 36 percent with 3 percent preferring other and 9 percent expressing no opinion in a Field Poll conducted Sept. 5-14. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. That lead, although pretty comfortable, is 8 points less than it was in July. On the excitement scale, 67 percent of Obama's supporters describe themselves as enthusiastic, up from 51 percent in July. McCain's numbers have risen from 17 percent to 47 percent. The previous poll we had for California was pre-convention. A Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted Aug. 12-19 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls California "Safe Democrat."

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 58 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 13. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-13 puts Obama's lead at 59 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent undecided. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Rhode Island "Safe Democratic."

New York: While a new Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15 has the race here the closest it's been in six month, it's nowhere near as close as the Siena poll of the other day. Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 37 percent and McCain's is 54 percent to 44 percent. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama ahead of McCain 55 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. The Siena College poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead by only 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. That was down from 8 points in Siena's August poll and 13 points in July. "Voters overwhelmingly say that McCain is more patriotic and has more experience than Obama. By smaller margins, they give McCain the edge on integrity and leadership," says Siena's Steven Greenberg. "A majority of voters say Obama has the advantage on intelligence and compassion. Even Democrats give McCain a wide lead on experience. The only significant difference between men and women on attributes was on leadership. While both say McCain is the better leader, women agree by a smaller margin. Younger voters disagree with older voters on leadership and integrity, with a plurality saying Obama is better on both." Democrats have carried all five of the last presidential elections here with the only one where a Republican was in shouting distance was 1988 when Michael Dukakis beat George Bush by about 4 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls New York "Safe Democratic."

Colorado: McCain has a number of statistically insignificant leads in recent polls here. He is ahead of Obama 46 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 14. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Nader's rise matched Obama's decline. In it's last survey, Obama had led by 3. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.3 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 7-9 gave Obama a statistically insignificant edge over McCain of 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error was 3 points. McCain increased his lead among white voters from 2 to 6 points since PPP's last poll, but Obama has been able to offset that with his 58 percent to 34 percent lead among Hispanics who make up 14 percent of the sample. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

Nevada: Three recent polls have McCain in a statistical ties with Obama. McCain is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 12-14. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11 had him leading Obama 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers were 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's were 53 percent to 46 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Sept. 11 had McCain leading 46 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent . The margin of error was 4.2 percent. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent choosing neither or "other" or having no opinion in a. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 11 had McCain leading Obama 45 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. That made it a statistical tie given the 4 percent margin of error. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 42 percent, while Obama's was 47 percent to 51 percent. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Nevada in the "No Clear Favorite" category.

New Jersey: McCain has narrowed the gap in this traditionally Democratic state in the wake of the GOP convention. Obama has a barely significant lead of 48 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Sept. 10-14. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. In mid-August, he had led by 10 points. McCain has increased his margin among white voters from 8 points to 19 points. A quarter of all voters and more than a third of independents say it is somewhat or very likely the debates could change their minds. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards underlined the importance of the debates in saying, "The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey." Obama's lead over McCain also narrowed in a Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Sept.11-14 that put Obama ahead among likely voters 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama led by 14 points in July. Monmouth's Patrick Murray, like other New Jersey pollsters, cautioned on reading too much into this, saying "Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling but have had problems maintaining that momentum." Marist Poll conducted Sept. 5-8 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 40 percent among registered voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 12 percent undecided. But when measuring likely voters including those who leaned one way or another, Obama's lead fell to 48 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's 3.5 percent margin of error. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 4-7 had Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Although it looks like McCain is closing the gap in this traditionally Democratic state, Fairleigh Dickinson's Peter Woolley said this was in part due to the spotlight of the Republican convention and while McCain "shored up his support in New Jersey...he did not cut into his opponent's support." Woolley said the choice of Sarah Palin did a good job of bolstering McCain's base, "but there is no evidence that she has attracted disaffected Clinton supporters or independents." Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race in New Jersey "Democrat Favored."

Pennsylvania: McCain and Obama are tied at 47 percent each with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 7 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 14. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama had a statistically insignificant 2 point lead in the last poll. Undecideds went down by 3 points and McCain up by two. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26 had Obama ahead of McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent choosing neither candidate. The margin of error was 4 percent. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Virginia: A survey conducted during the week of Sept. 8 by Christopher Newport University had McCain leading 48 percent to 39 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.4 percent. That contrasts with a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 13-14 showing Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in . The margin of error is 3 percent. PPP says one factor that may be keeping Obama competitive is that this is the only battleground it has polled where Joseph Biden gets better reviews than Sarah Palin. Obama leads with voters under 65, women and Hispanics while McCain does better with senior citizens, white voters and men. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 14 had both men tied at 48 percent each with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain had led by two in the last poll. ASurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 12-14 had Obama leading 50 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. Obama had a 24 point lead among voters under 34 who made up a quarter of the sample while McCain had a more modest 8 point lead among those over 65 (16 percent of the sample). McCain led 18 points among whites (73 percent of the sample) while Obama led 88 percent to 11 percent among black (19 percent of the sample). Republicans won the last five presidential elections here. CQ Politics Election Forecast says Virginia "Leans Republican."

Vermont: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll published by WCAX-TV Sept. 15. CQ Politics" Election Forecast rates the state "Safe Democratic."

Minnesota: Obama and McCain are tied at 45 percent each with 10 percent undecided in a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted Sept. 10-12. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. When this poll was last conducted in May, Obama led by 13 points. Since then, the poll said McCain has "picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 10-11 gives Obama a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. The 55 percent who named the economy as the top issue preferred Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. Health care was the second most cited issue at 11 percent and Obama won there too by 64 percent to 30 percent. Seven percent named terrorism and they chose McCain by 96 percent to 1 percent. These surveys stand in contrast to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2 that had Obama leading 53 percent to 41 percent . The margin of error was 3.5 percent. A survey conducted Aug. 7-17 by Minnesota Public Radio and The Humphrey Institute had Obama ahead 48 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent supporting Ralph Nader, 1 percent backing Libertarian Bob Barr and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3.6 percent. The Humphrey Institute's Larry Jacobs said that despite Obama's current 10 point lead, "This race is very much up in the air." Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Minnesota calls the state "Leans Democratic."

South Dakota: McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 65 percent to 33 percent while Obama's is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics Election Forecast for South Dakota calls the state "Safe Republican."

Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 63 percent to 32 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11. McCain is viewed favorably by 72 percent of voters and unfavorably by 26 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 60 percent and favorably by 37 percent. A a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 5-7 had McCain ahead 65 percent to 32 percent in. McCain led Obama, mostly by wide margins, in every demographic and issue group except voters under 34 where the two were tied at 48 percent and among black voters who make up only 6 percent of the sample. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race is this state as "Safe Republican."

Washington State: McCain continues to gain ground on Obama here, now trailing by a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent margin with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 10. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A month ago, Obama led by 12 in this poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 60 percent to 38 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 5-7 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama was ahead by 7 points in SurveyUSA's mid-August poll. Obama led McCain on the issue of the economy, picked as the top concern by 46 percent of voters, and by 40 points on health care which ranked second at 14 percent. Obama leads by 17 points among voters under 34 (19 percent of the sample) while McCain led by 7 points among those over 65 (18 percent of the sample). A chunk of McCain's gains here was due to closing the gap with Obama among women voters. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Washington is "Democrat Favored."

Michigan: Obama is holding off McCain in this state, but not by much. He leads him 51 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 10. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 41 percent compared to McCain's at 52 percent to 46 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9 had Obama ahead just beyond the margin of error by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 2 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7 had Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.9 percent. Forty-five percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin compared to 30 percent who said that of Obama for choosing Joseph Biden. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there's no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race" and that the question is whether McCain is just enjoying a convention bounce or is truly making the state competitive. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this state "Leans Democratic."

Maine: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A [Research 2000 poll] conducted Sept. 8-10 had Obama ahead 52 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4 percent. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Maine is "leans Democratic."

Georgia: McCain has opened a 56 percent to 38 percent lead over Obama with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10. The margin of error is 4 points. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery called the result" a huge slide from what had been, in our prior surveys, a relatively close race." Its last poll in early July had Obama tied with McCain. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17 had McCain leading 48 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent backing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 7 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Georgia "Republican Favored."

Mississippi: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error ws 4 percent. McCain took 81 percent of the white vote. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Mississippi "Safe Republican."

Alabama: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Capital Survey research Center poll conducted Sept. 3-4 and Sept. 8-9 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 35 percent with 10 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. That was a 7 point pickup for McCain since its August poll. Alabamans think Sarah McCain is qualified to be President by a 55.6 percent to 31.6 percent margin, putting her almost up there with Joseph Biden who 61.9 percent said was qualified. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Alabama "Safe Republican."

Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 26 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 8-10. A a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. A Greg Smith & Associates conducted Aug. 18-22 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 29 percent with 15 percent undecided. The pollster said that 35 percent of Democrats would vote for McCain. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls this state "Safe Republican."

Wyoming: McCain leads Obama 66 percent to 28 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 put McCain ahead 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls this state "Safe Republican."

Missouri: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-15. the margin of error is 4 percent. Similarly, a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9 had McCain ahead by the same 50 percent to 45 percent margin with 3 percent choosing neither 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent expressing no opinion. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 13-17 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 40 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.6 percent. White voters were supporting McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent and, with black voters making up only 12 percent of the sample, Obama would have to become more competitive among whites. McCain holds a 14 point lead among men and also leads among women, by 5 points. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Missouri in the "Leans Republican" column.

New Hampshire: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing neither, 1 percent preferring someone else, and 1 percent with no opinion in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9. The margin of error is 3 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20 had Obama ahead 46 percent to 45 percent with 9 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19 also had Obama in a statistical tie with McCain, leading him 43 percent to 42 percent with 7 percent preferring "other" and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast for New Hampshire is "No Clear Favorite."

New Mexico: Recent polls here conflict. An {American Research Group survey](http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/NM08.html) conducted Sept. 14-16 has Obama ahead of McCain 51 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 8 had McCain moving into a statistical tie with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 4 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 52 percent to 45 percent and Obama's was 55 percent to 44 percent. In the last survey we had from here, a Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26 had Obama leading 53 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent taking neither side. The margin of error was 4 percent. Rasmussen's previous poll on Aug. 20 had Obama leading by 6. Democrats have won three of the last five elections here. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the New Mexico race "No Clear Favorite."

North Dakota: McCain was tied here in July with Obama in a Rasmussen Reports poll, but the pollster now has him ahead 55 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a survey conducted Sept. 8. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 67 percent to 30 percent while Obama's are 52 percent to 46 percent. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for North Dakota calls the state "Safe Republican."

Alaska: Three polls show the choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate has clearly turned things around here. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 9-11 had McCain ahead 60 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. McCain had led by 5 points in a Rasmussen Reports poll in July but now Rasmussen's new poll, conducted Sept. 9, has him ahead 64 percent to 33 percent with 3 percent undecided. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent compared to 45 percent who see him positively. An Ivan Moore poll and others also had this as a close race (in July, Moore put McCain ahead by only 2.5 points), but a survey conducted Aug. 30 - Sept. 2 now has McCain ahead 53.5 percent to 34.9 percent with 11.7 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Alaska "Safe Republican."

West Virginia: McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 14-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. A [Mark Blankenship Enterprises poll] conducted Sept. 6-7 had McCain ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with 17 percent undecided. CQ Politics Election Forecast calls West Virginia "Republican Favored."

Montana: Two of the most recent polls conflict. An American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-9 has McCain statistically tied with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 8 had ahead53 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided, after trailing Obama in early July and then pulling even with him at the end of that month. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ration was 50 percent to 48 percent while McCain's was 60 percent to 37 percent. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Montana as "Republican Favored."

Maryland: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 38 percent with 10 percent undecided in a poll conducted Aug. 29 - Sept. 5 by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Fifty-one percent have a favorable image of Joe Biden compared to 35 percent for Sarah Palin. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts this state in the "Safe Democratic" column.

Iowa: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A University of Iowa Hawkeye poll conducted Aug. 4-13 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 42.9 percent with 9.1 percent. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. That number was for registered voters and included "leaners." For likely registered voters including leaners, his lead was 49.5 percent to 43.1 percent with 7.4 percent undecided and a 3.9 percent margin of error. "The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in Obama's direction," said Hawkeye Poll Director David Redlawsk. "Most importantly for Obama, his supporters are much more likely to say they 'strongly support' him, which makes them much more likely to turn out on Election Day and much more likely to talk to friends and neighbors, volunteer in the campaign, and do the kinds of things that win elections." A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7 had Obama ahead 46 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Iowa as "Leans Democratic."

Texas: McCain leads Obama 57 percent to 36 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in an [American Research Group poll] conducted Sept. 13-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. A pre-conventions Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 21 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 32 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has Tennessee as "Republican Favored."

Arizona: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 11-14. The margin of error is 4 percent. An Arizona State's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism poll conducted Aug. 16-17 had McCain ahead 40 percent to 30 percent with 2 percent backing Ralph Nader, less than 1 percent supporting Libertarian Bob Barr and a whopping 28 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Arizona "Republican Favored."

Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 9-12. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 17 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 38 percent with percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Louisiana "Republican Favored."

Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 51 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 13-16. the margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 12 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Illinois is "Safe Democratic."

Kansas: McCain leads Obama 63 percent to 31 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 7-10. The margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 11 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Kansas "Safe Republican."

Kentucky: McCain maintains his big lead over Obama, running ahead of him 57 percent to 37 percent with 1 percent opting for "other" and 5 percent undecided in an [American Research Group survey] conducted Sept. 8-12. The margin of error is 4 points. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11 had McCain ahead 55 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. CQ Politics' political profile for Kentucky is "Safe Republican."

Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 5. Last month, Obama led by 20 points in this poll. Sixty-two percent of voters see Obama favorably compared to 57 percent for McCain. Unlike most other states, voters believe protecting the environment has a higher priority than bringing down the cost of gasoline by 48 percent to 41 percent. They also believe that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and biggest threat to national security. A 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll conducted July 31-Aug.2 had Obama leading McCain by 47 percent to 38 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said "Obama's campaign has hit a soft patch this summer. With November just three months off, it still appears an Obama outcome in Massachusetts is not in question, but the margin certainly is." The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 33 percent with 10 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest.

Connecticut: Obama continues to hold a big lead here, running ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 31. Five percent choose "other," 9 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. The last Rasmussen survey in late June gave Obama a 17 point lead. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 47 percent. Given a choice between bringing down the price of gasoline or protecting the environment, Connecticut voters split in a statistical tie. They believe that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front in the war on terror. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29 had Obama ahead by 56 percent to 35 percent. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections, and in the last three won by 10 points or more. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Connecticut "Democrat Favored."

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 32 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 28. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's lead is slightly higher than it was in June. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama's is 45 percent to 54 percent. By an overwhelming 59 percent to 28 percent, Nebraskans put more priority on bringing down gasoline prices than protecting the environment. They also believe that Afghanistan and not Iraq is the central front of the war on terror and principal threat to U.S. security. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here.

Arkansas: McCain's lead over Obama has steadied at 47 percent to 37 percent after Obama last month closed the gap to 8 points, compared to the 24 points he was down in May before Hillary Clinton's withdrawal from the race. The latest numbers from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 15 show 5 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 39 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 45 percent. Asked what voters thought more important - protecting the environment or reducing the price of gas and oil - they chose reducing energy prices by 48 percent to 36 percent. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls the state "Safe Republican."

South Carolina: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided and 5 percent opting for Libertarian Bob Barr, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-11. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam says that while Obama is likely to do better here than John Kerry in 2004 (which wouldn't be hard given that George Bush beat Kerry by about 17 percent), "it would take an exceptional turnout from young voters and black voters, as well as a lot of disaffected conservatives voting for Bob Barr," to make an Obama win possible. McCain leads Obama among white voters (68 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 24 percent and Obama leads McCain among blacks (29 percent of the sample) 77 percent to 10 percent. Obama leads McCain among voters under 29 (17 percent of the sample) by 54 percent to 32 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has South Carolina "Safe Republican."

Utah: McCain leads Obama 65 percent to 29 percent with 6 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 10-13. The margin of error is 4 points. Republicans have carried the state by margins ranging from 16 to 45 points in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Utah "Safe Republican."

Hawaii: Obama leads McCain 63 percent to 32 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group survey conducted Sept. 7-12. The margin of error is 4 points. Hawaii has been solidly Democratic in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Hawaii "Safe Democrat."

Delaware: Obama leads McCain in Joseph Biden's home state by 51 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Delaware has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections. CQ Politics rates this state "Safe Democratic."

District of Columbia: Obama leads McCain 82 percent to 13 percent with 4 percent undecided in an American Research Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13.