Poll Tracker

Nevada: Two recent polls have McCain in a statistical ties with Obama. He leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11. The margin of error is 4 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama's are 53 percent to 46 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll also conducted Sept. 11 had McCain leading 46 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent . The margin of error was 4.2 percent. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent choosing neither or "other" or having no opinion in a. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 11 had McCain leading Obama 45 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. That made it a statistical tie given the 4 percent margin of error. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio was 58 percent to 42 percent, while Obama's was 47 percent to 51 percent. Republicans have won three of the last five elections here although each one since 1996 has been decided by four points or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Nevada in the "No Clear Favorite" category.

South Dakota: McCain leads Obama 54 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. In July, they were in a statistical tie in this poll. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 65 percent to 33 percent while Obama's is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 47 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics Election Forecast for South Dakota calls the state "Safe Republican."

Oklahoma: McCain leads Obama 63 percent to 32 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 11. McCain is viewed favorably by 72 percent of voters and unfavorably by 26 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 60 percent and favorably by 37 percent. A a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 5-7 had McCain ahead 65 percent to 32 percent in. McCain led Obama, mostly by wide margins, in every demographic and issue group except voters under 34 where the two were tied at 48 percent and among black voters who make up only 6 percent of the sample. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race is this state as "Safe Republican."

New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent among registered voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 12 percent undecided in a Marist Poll conducted Sept. 5-8. But when measuring likely voters including those who lean one way or another, Obama's lead falls to 48 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's 3.5 percent margin of error. A The greatest number of registered voters who say they support McCain do so because they believe he is a strong leader, while Obama's top attraction for his backers is the belief he will bring about change. Among all registered voters, 50 percent believe Obama has a better plan to bring about changed compared to McCain's 39 percent, but those numbers reverse themselves when asked who has the better record for bringing about change. Three-quarters of Obama supporters are excited about the election compared to 55 percent for McCain. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 4-7 had Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Although it looks like McCain is closing the gap in this traditionally Democratic state, Fairleigh Dickinson's Peter Woolley said this was in part due to the spotlight of the Republican convention and while McCain "shored up his support in New Jersey...he did not cut into his opponent's support." Woolley said the choice of Sarah Palin did a good job of bolstering McCain's base, "but there is no evidence that she has attracted disaffected Clinton supporters or independents." Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race in New Jersey "Democrat Favored."

Washington State: McCain continues to gain ground on Obama here, now trailing by a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent margin with 1 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 10. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A month ago, Obama led by 12 in this poll. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 40 percent while McCain's is 60 percent to 38 percent. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 5-7 had Obama ahead 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. Obama was ahead by 7 points in SurveyUSA's mid-August poll. Obama led McCain on the issue of the economy, picked as the top concern by 46 percent of voters, and by 40 points on health care which ranked second at 14 percent. Obama leads by 17 points among voters under 34 (19 percent of the sample) while McCain led by 7 points among those over 65 (18 percent of the sample). A chunk of McCain's gains here was due to closing the gap with Obama among women voters. Democrats have carried the state in the last 5 elections although Michael Dukakis defeated the first George Bush here in 1988 by less than 2 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Washington is "Democrat Favored."

Ohio: This state is shaping up to be one of the tightest contests. An Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati, conducted Sept. 5-10, has McCain ahead of Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Poll co-director Eric Rademacher says the race in Ohio "has a long way to go" because as many as 23 percent of voters may still be up for grabs and more Democrats than Republicans say, at the moment, they will cross party lines to vote for the other candidate. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10 has McCain statistically tied with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in The margin of error is 4.3 percent. That contrasts to a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7 putting McCain ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 50 percent to 48 percent while McCain's were 63 percent to 35 percent. Voters trusted McCain more by 54 percent to 41 percent. Forty-two percent "are not at all comfortable" with Obama as President compared to 25 percent saying that of McCain. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2 had Obama and McCain statistically tied at 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 7-9 gave Obama a statistically insignificant edge over McCain of 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error was 3 points. McCain increased his lead among white voters from 2 to 6 points since PPP's last poll, but Obama has been able to offset that with his 58 percent to 34 percent lead among Hispanics who make up 14 percent of the sample. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7 had Obama ahead McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 54 percent to 45 percent and McCain's were 61 percent to 39 percent. Voters trusted McCain more than Obama 49 percent to 44 percent. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. had McCain ahead 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, "other" or having no opinion. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey, but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

Michigan: Obama is holding off McCain in this state, but not by much. He leads him 51 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 10. the margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 41 percent compared to McCain's at 52 percent to 46 percent. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9 had Obama ahead just beyond the margin of error by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 2 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error was 3 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7 had Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.9 percent. Forty-five percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin compared to 30 percent who said that of Obama for choosing Joseph Biden. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there's no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race" and that the question is whether McCain is just enjoying a convention bounce or is truly making the state competitive. Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four of five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this state "Leans Democratic."

North Carolina: The polls are all over the lot here on whether McCain has a comfortable lead or in a tight race with Obama. We'll give them to you in the order we got them. McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent preferring other and 4 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10. The margin of error is 4 points. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Sept. 6-10 had McCain leading 47 percent to 44 percent with 8 percent. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. Civitas' August poll had McCain ahead by 6. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 9 had McCain ahead 48 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided. That's barely above the 3.9 percent margin of error. PPP said, "A concern for Obama rising out of this poll is that undecided whites have gone from 10% three weeks ago to just 3% now, and two thirds of them have gone into the McCain column." This poll stands in contrast to one a day earlier that showed a huge jump for McCain. SurveyUSA poll, in a poll conducted Sept. 6-8, had McCain ahead 58 percent to 38 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

Maine: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 6 percent undecided in a [Research 2000 poll] conducted Sept. 8-10. The margin of error is 4 percent. Democrats have won the last four out of five elections here. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Maine is "leans Democratic."

Georgia: McCain has opened a 56 percent to 38 percent lead over Obama with 2 percent preferring "other" and 4 percent undecided in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10. The margin of error is 4 points. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery called the result" a huge slide from what had been, in our prior surveys, a relatively close race." Its last poll in early July had Obama tied with McCain. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 17 had McCain leading 48 percent to 39 percent with 5 percent backing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 7 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The only time in the last five elections that Republicans have not won this state was in 1992 when Bill Clinton eked out a victory by less than a point, thanks to the competition George Bush got from independent Ross Perot. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Georgia "Republican Favored."

Mississippi: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided in a Research 2000 poll conducted Sept. 8-10. the margin of error is 4 percent. McCain takes 81 percent of the white vote. Republicans have carried the state in the last five presidential elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Mississippi "Safe Republican."

Alabama: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 35 percent with 10 percent undecided in a Capital Survey research Center poll conducted Sept. 3-4 and Sept. 8-9. The margin of error is 4 percent. That's a 7 point pickup for McCain since its August poll. Alabamans think Sarah McCain is qualified to be President by a 55.6 percent to 31.6 percent margin, putting her almost up there with Joseph Biden who 61.9 percent said was qualified. The Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Alabama "Safe Republican."

Idaho: McCain leads Obama 68 percent to 29 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A Greg Smith & Associates conducted Aug. 18-22 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 29 percent with 15 percent undecided. The pollster said that 35 percent of Democrats would vote for McCain. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls this state "Safe Republican."

Wyoming: McCain leads Obama 58 percent to 39 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. A poll conducted Aug. 13-15 by Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post had McCain favored 62 percent to 27 percent on the economy, 74 percent to 21 percent on national security, 63 percent to 19 percent on immigration, 43 percent to 38 percent on protecting the environment, and 62 percent to 26 percent on energy issues. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls this state "Safe Republican."

Missouri: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent choosing neither 1 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent expressing no opinion in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 13-17 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 40 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.6 percent. White voters were supporting McCain by 56 percent to 35 percent and, with black voters making up only 12 percent of the sample, Obama would have to become more competitive among whites. McCain holds a 14 point lead among men and also leads among women, by 5 points. Republicans have won 7 of the last 10 elections here with George Bush winning by about 7 points and 3 points in 2004 and 2000, and Clinton winning by about 6 in 1996 and about 11 in 1992. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Missouri in the "Leans Republican" column.

New Hampshire: Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing neither, 1 percent preferring someone else, and 1 percent with no opinion in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9. The margin of error is 3 percent. An American Research Group poll conducted Aug. 18-20 had Obama ahead 46 percent to 45 percent with 9 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19 also had Obama in a statistical tie with McCain, leading him 43 percent to 42 percent with 7 percent preferring "other" and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. Democrats have carried the state three times and the GOP twice in the last five elections, but the outcomes in 2000 and 2004, with victories for George Bush and John Kerry respectively, were decided by about 2 points or less. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast for New Hampshire is "No Clear Favorite."

New Mexico: McCain has moved into a statistical tie with Obama at 49 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 8. The margin of error is 4 points. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 52 percent to 45 percent and Obama's is 55 percent to 44 percent. In the last survey we had from here, a Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26 had Obama leading 53 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent taking neither side. The margin of error was 4 percent. Rasmussen's previous poll on Aug. 20 had Obama leading by 6. Democrats have won three of the last five elections here. The last two elections here were settled by less than a one point margin: the Republicans won in 2004 and the Democrats in 2000. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the New Mexico race "No Clear Favorite."

North Dakota: McCain was tied here in July with Obama in a Rasmussen Reports poll, but the pollster now has him ahead 55 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a survey conducted Sept. 8. McCain's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 67 percent to 30 percent while Obama's are 52 percent to 46 percent. North Dakota has gone Republican in the last 10 elections and George Bush carried the state by 27 points in 2000 and 2004. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for North Dakota calls the state "Safe Republican."

Alaska: Two polls show the choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate has clearly turned things around here. McCain had led by 5 points in a Rasmussen Reports poll in July but now Rasmussen's new poll, conducted Sept. 9, has him ahead 64 percent to 33 percent with 3 percent undecided. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 55 percent compared to 45 percent who see him positively. An Ivan Moore poll and others also had this as a close race (in July, Moore put McCain ahead by only 2.5 points), but a survey conducted Aug. 30 - Sept. 2 now has McCain ahead 53.5 percent to 34.9 percent with 11.7 percent undecided. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Alaska "Republican Favored."

West Virginia: McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 39 percent with 17 percent undecided in a [Mark Blankenship Enterprises poll] conducted Sept. 6-7. CQ Politics Election Forecast calls West Virginia "Republican Favored."

Florida: McCain has upped his lead over Obama by 2 points to 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. Obama's problem appears to be that as white voters move out of the undecided camp, they are mostly headed for McCain. Obama is staying close because of his 7 point lead among Hispanic voters (13 percent of the sample) and 78 point lead among blacks (16 percent of the sample). A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7 had Obama and McCain tied at 48 percent each with 2 percent choosing Ralph Nader and 2 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 45 percent while McCain's was 61 percent to 37 percent. Voters trusted McCain more than Obama by 50 percent to 44 percent. Forty-three percent of voters were "not at all comfortable" with Obama compared to 30 percent for McCain. A Mason-Dixon survey conducted Aug. 25-26 had Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 45 percent to 44 percent margin with 11 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 46 percent to 37 percent while McCain's is 44 percent to 34 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted Aug., 22-24 has McCain ahead 49 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 8 percent undecided in a. The margin of error is 3 points. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24 had McCain ahead 47 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3 percent. This result came even though Floridians said by 44 percent to 39 percent they'd like to see a Democrat in the White House. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 55 percent to 32 percent compared to 51 percent to 36 percent for Obama. As in most national and state polls, McCain had double-digit leads when it came to handling terrorism, relations with Russia and a foreign conflict such as one between Israel and Iran. Obama's leads on domestic issues hovered within or just above the margin of error. McCain led by 8 percent among independents who Quinnipiac says could determine the outcome here. Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

Montana: After trailing Obama in early July and then pulling even with him at the end of the month, McCain now leads him 53 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 8. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ration is 50 percent to 48 percent while McCain's is 60 percent to 37 percent. This is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Montana as "Republican Favored."

Maryland: Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 38 percent with 10 percent undecided in a poll conducted Aug. 29 - Sept. 5 by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Fifty-one percent have a favorable image of Joe Biden compared to 35 percent for Sarah Palin. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts this state in the "Safe Democratic" column.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain by a statistically-insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader and 7 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent of voters and unfavorably by 44 percent. McCain's ratio is 57 percent to 40 percent. Voters trust McCain more than Obama by 48 percent to 41 percent. Thirty-nine percent are not comfortable with the prospect of Obama being president and 33 percent say the same about McCain. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26 had Obama ahead of McCain 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent choosing neither candidate. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24 had Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 42 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Pennsylvanians would like to see a Democrat in the White House by 50 percent to 32 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 50 percent to 35 percent compared to Obama's 53 percent to 32 percent Obama had a 16 point lead among women while McCain led by only 4 points among me. Obama did better with voters on domestic issues than in two other swing states Quinnipiac surveyed, Florida and Ohio. He was preferred by voters by 10 points on the economy and 11 points on the energy crisis while McCain had significant but lesser leads than he does in Florida and Pennsylvania on handling terrorism, policy towards Russia and the possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict. This key state was won by Democrats in the last two elections, but by 4 points or less each time. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this race "Democrat Favored."

Indiana: Despite this state's history of voting Republican, McCain only leads Obama by 45 percent to 43 percent with 11 percent undecided in a Howey-Gauge poll conducted Aug. 29-30. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 19-21 also had the race close with McCain ahead 46 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 65 percent to 32 percent while Obama's was 52 percent to 44 percent. Obama appeared to be getting some advantage from representing the state next door, Illinois. McCain led by 12 point among men and ran evenly with Obama among women. A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 16-18 had McCain ahead 50 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent. The margin of error was 3.9 percent. McCain led by 12 points among men and tied Obama among women. Except for voters under 34 among whom Obama led by 22 points, McCain had healthy leads in all other age groups. McCain had a 12 point lead among white voters. Both men ran fairly evenly among the 45 percent of voters that cite the economy as the top issue, but Obama led him by wide margins among the 12 percent of voters who named health care and the 9 percent who said the top issue is Iraq. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections, and the only year where their margin of victory was less than 15 points was 1996 when independent Ross Perot got 10 percent of the vote. CQ Politics' Election Forecast Rates this state "Republican Favored."

Iowa: Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A University of Iowa Hawkeye poll conducted Aug. 4-13 had Obama ahead 48 percent to 42.9 percent with 9.1 percent. The margin of error was 3.7 percent. That number was for registered voters and included "leaners." For likely registered voters including leaners, his lead was 49.5 percent to 43.1 percent with 7.4 percent undecided and a 3.9 percent margin of error. "The race in Iowa, while relatively close, appears to be moving in Obama's direction," said Hawkeye Poll Director David Redlawsk. "Most importantly for Obama, his supporters are much more likely to say they 'strongly support' him, which makes them much more likely to turn out on Election Day and much more likely to talk to friends and neighbors, volunteer in the campaign, and do the kinds of things that win elections." A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 7 had Obama ahead 46 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent choosing other and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Iowa has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, but George Bush's victory in 2004 and Al Gore's win in 2000 were each by less than a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Iowa as "Leans Democratic."

California: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted Aug. 12-19. The margin of error is 2 percent. Obama had led by 14 in the previous PPIC poll. Obama leads 48 percent to 33 percent among independents and 71 percent to 16 percent among Hispanics, while McCain has a 9 point lead among whites. McCain leads 14 points among men and Obama by 11 points among women. Democrats are satisfied with Obama as their candidate by a 68 percent to 28 percent margin while Republicans are not satisfied with McCain by 64 percent to 36 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20 had Obama leading McCain 51 percent to 37 percent with 8 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 61 percent to 39 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 48 percent. Of the last five elections, Democrats easily won each since 1992, following Michael Dukakis' loss to the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls California "Safe Democrat."

Rhode Island: Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 30 percent with 20 percent undecided in a Brown University survey conducted Aug. 18-20. The margin of error is 4 points. As in national polls, there is a big enthusiasm gap: three-quarters of those voting for Obama are satisfied or "excited" compared to 52 percent for McCain. The biggest concern McCain raised for voters (41 percent of them) is that he would continue President Bush's policies. Thirty-five percent believe is too inexperienced to be President. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 1 had Obama ahead 55 percent to 31 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 9 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Democrats have won the last five elections here by margins ranging from 12 to 29 points. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Rhode Island "Safe Democratic."

Texas: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 21. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters and unfavorably by 35 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 50 percent to 49 percent. McCain has the loyalty of 82 percent of Republicans and draws 16 percent of Democratic votes. Obama is backed by 75 percent of Republicans and 14 percent of Republicans. McCain leads 51 percent to 35 percent among unaffiliated voters. A University of Texas-Austin poll conducted July 18-30 had McCain ahead 42 percent to 33 percent among registered voters with Libertarian Bob Barr at just under 5 percent, Ralph Nader at 2 percent and 17 percent undecided.. The margin of error was 3.77 percent. The poll included a "feeling thermometer" for which voters were asked to say whether they felt very warm or cold towards a candidate. McCain rated 53.8 degrees to Obama's 50.3 degrees which rated as "no feeling at all." Two percent of Texans said the country's economy was better off than a year ago and 81 percent said it was worse. Republicans have comfortably carried the state in all of the last five elections. The CQ Politics Election Forecast calls Texas "Safe Republican."

Tennessee: McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 32 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Republicans won three of the last five elections here with the two losses to Bill Clinton and Al Gore in 1992 and 1996. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has Tennessee as "Republican Favored."

Arizona: McCain leads Obama 40 percent to 30 percent with 2 percent backing Ralph Nader, less than 1 percent supporting Libertarian Bob Barr and a whopping 28 percent undecided in a poll conducted Aug. 16-17 by Arizona State's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. A poll conducted Aug. 13-15 by Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post polled voters here on how they rated McCain and Obama on the issues. The areas where there were differences between the two beyond the 5 point margin of error were national security, where McCain led by 25 points; immigration, where McCain led by 18 points; protecting the environment, where Obama led by 11 points; and, developing energy sources and reducing independence on foreign sources, where McCain led by 8 points. In an earlier poll here, McCain had a comfortable 52 percent to 40 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 30-31. Eight percent were undecided and the margin of error was 3.1 percent. McCain had double-digit leads among men and women. His support among his own party was also 11 points higher than Obama's was among Democrats. While Obama had an 8 point lead among Hispanics, they made up only 16 percent of the sample. McCain had double-digit leads in every age group except voters under 29. Republicans have carried Arizona in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Arizona "Republican Favored."

Louisiana: McCain leads Obama 55 percent to 38 percent with percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 17. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 34 percent while Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56 percent and favorably by 43 percent. Louisiana has gone Republican in three of the last five elections with the string broken in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton. CQ Politics' Election Forecast called the state "Republican Favored." CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Louisiana "Republican Favored."

Illinois: Obama leads McCain in his home state 53 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 12. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to unfavorable ratio is 64 percent to 35 percent while McCain's is 52 percent to 44 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last four elections. Illinois went Republican in the six before those. The CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Illinois is "Safe Democratic."

Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Aug. 8-10. The margin of error is three points. A Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll conducted Aug. 3-4 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 38 percent with 18 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 points. The modest size of the margin was somewhat surprising given some of the other numbers in the poll. Obama had leads of about 2-to-1 on the two issues that voters identified as the most important, the economy and Iraq. The favorable-to-unfavorable numbers for Obama were 51 percent to 31 percent while McCain's were 46 percent to 37 percent. Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by less than one point in 2004 and 2000. CQ Politics' Election Forecast says Wisconsin "Leans Democratic."

Kansas: McCain leads Obama 52 percent to 37 percent with 6 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 11. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 66 percent to 33 percent while Obama's is 52 percent unfavorable to 48 percent favorable. Republicans have carried this state by double-digits in the last 5 elections except for 1992 when Ross Perot's candidacy siphoned votes from the first George Bush and reduced his margin of victory. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Kansas "Safe Republican."

Kentucky: McCain maintains his big lead over Obama, running ahead of him 55 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent preferring "other" and 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 9-11. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. McCain leads 60 percent to 33 percent among white voters. A Research 2000 poll conducted July 28-30 had McCain ahead 56 percent to 35 percent with a 4 point margin of error. In that poll, Obama got only 29 percent of the white vote, and the black vote in this state is small. Republicans have carried three of the five last elections with the exceptions being the two won by Bill Clinton. CQ Politics' political profile for Kentucky is "Safe Republican."

Oregon: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 37 percent with 10 percent preferring other and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 56 percent to 39 percent while McCain's is 54 percent to 46 percent. While Oregonians don't believe Iraq is the central front of the war on terror, they split on whether Afghanistan is. But they do believe Afghanistan is the greater threat to the U.S. Although Rasmussen says McCain has never been closer to Obama than 6 points in its six polls of the state, A SurveyUSA poll conducted Aug. 2-4 had the race here much tighter, with Obama leading 48 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring "other" and 2 percent undecided. That was within the 4 point margin of error. Obama had a 13 point advantage among women voters and independents prefer him by 6 points. The Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections although Al Gore won it in 2000 by less than half a point. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the Oregon contest as "Democrat Favored."

Massachusetts: Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted August 5. Last month, Obama led by 20 points in this poll. Sixty-two percent of voters see Obama favorably compared to 57 percent for McCain. Unlike most other states, voters believe protecting the environment has a higher priority than bringing down the cost of gasoline by 48 percent to 41 percent. They also believe that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front of the war on terror and biggest threat to national security. A 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll conducted July 31-Aug.2 had Obama leading McCain by 47 percent to 38 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said "Obama's campaign has hit a soft patch this summer. With November just three months off, it still appears an Obama outcome in Massachusetts is not in question, but the margin certainly is." The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 30 had Obama ahead 53 percent to 33 percent with 10 percent undecided. A SurveyUSA poll conducted June 25-27 had Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 40 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. Obama has roughly a 2-to-1 lead among women. Massachusetts has gone Democratic in the five last elections and the only time the margin was less than double-digits was the 1988 George Bush-Michael Dukakis contest.

Connecticut: Obama continues to hold a big lead here, running ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 31. Five percent choose "other," 9 percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4.5 percent. The last Rasmussen survey in late June gave Obama a 17 point lead. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 61 percent to 38 percent while McCain's is 51 percent to 47 percent. Given a choice between bringing down the price of gasoline or protecting the environment, Connecticut voters split in a statistical tie. They believe that Afghanistan, not Iraq, is the central front in the war on terror. A Quinnipiac University survey conducted June 26-29 had Obama ahead by 56 percent to 35 percent. Democrats have carried the state in four of the last five elections, and in the last three won by 10 points or more. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Connecticut "Democrat Favored."

Montana: McCain has pulled even with Obama after trailing him five points at the beginning of July according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 29. McCain leads 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing "other" and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. But then this is a state the Republicans have carried in all the last five elections except 1992 when Independent Ross Perot spoiled things for the first George Bush. McCain's favorability-unfavorability ratio is 59 percent to 40 percent compared to Obama at 53 percent to 46 percent.CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists Montana as "Republican Favored."

Nebraska: McCain leads Obama 50 percent to 32 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 10 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted July 28. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain's lead is slightly higher than it was in June. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio is 71 percent to 28 percent while Obama's is 45 percent to 54 percent. By an overwhelming 59 percent to 28 percent, Nebraskans put more priority on bringing down gasoline prices than protecting the environment. They also believe that Afghanistan and not Iraq is the central front of the war on terror and principal threat to U.S. security. Republicans have won all five of the last presidential elections here.

Vermont: We do not yet have a poll for Vermont, but CQ Politics rates the state "Safe Democrat." See our Election Forecast.

Arkansas: McCain's lead over Obama has steadied at 47 percent to 37 percent after Obama last month closed the gap to 8 points, compared to the 24 points he was down in May before Hillary Clinton's withdrawal from the race. The latest numbers from a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted July 15 show 5 percent preferring "other" and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 39 percent. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 53 percent and favorably by 45 percent. Asked what voters thought more important - protecting the environment or reducing the price of gas and oil - they chose reducing energy prices by 48 percent to 36 percent. Republicans have carried the state in three of the last five elections with the exception predictably being the two years in which favorite son Bill Clinton was the candidate. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls the state "Safe Republican."

South Carolina: McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 39 percent with 10 percent undecided and 5 percent opting for Libertarian Bob Barr, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 9-11. The margin of error is 4.2 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam says that while Obama is likely to do better here than John Kerry in 2004 (which wouldn't be hard given that George Bush beat Kerry by about 17 percent), "it would take an exceptional turnout from young voters and black voters, as well as a lot of disaffected conservatives voting for Bob Barr," to make an Obama win possible. McCain leads Obama among white voters (68 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 24 percent and Obama leads McCain among blacks (29 percent of the sample) 77 percent to 10 percent. Obama leads McCain among voters under 29 (17 percent of the sample) by 54 percent to 32 percent. Republicans have carried the state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has South Carolina "Safe Republican."

Utah: The most recent poll we have for this state measures the candidates on issue, but not the horse race. A poll conducted Aug. 13-15 by Mason-Dixon Research for the Denver Post had McCain leading Obama by huge margins on the economy, national security, immigration, and energy. Obama led McCain by 6 points on the environment. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted June 19 had McCain ahead 52 percent to 33 percent with 8 percent preferring "other" and 8 percent undecided in a . McCain was viewed favorably by 58 percent of voters and Obama unfavorably by 52 percent. Twenty-two percent believed McCain is too old for the Presidency while 47 percent believe Obama was too inexperienced (41 percent reject that idea). Fifty-one percent thought the most important goal in Iraq for the next President is winning the war while 41 percent said it is getting the troops home. A Deseret News/KSL-TV poll conducted June 16-19 has McCain ahead of Obama by 57 percent to 29 percent, and adds that voters would be more likely to vote for McCain if he picks Mitt Romney as running mate, while they'd be less likely to vote for Obama if he picks Hillary Clinton. CQ Politics' Election Forecast calls Utah "Safe Republican."