September 2008 Archives

Barack Obama's margin over John McCain has narrowed to 50 percent to 46 percent compared to the 9 point lead he enjoyed a week ago in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 27-29. The margin of error is 3 points and the numbers include likely voters and leaners. Obama appears to be getting a boost from greater voter trust in him to handle the economy, in the wake of the worsening financial crisis. For President Bush, it's the opposite: 70 percent of voters said they disapproved of his performance, the highest number so far, and 74 percent disapprove of the way he is handling the economy.

If Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are factored into the race, Obama leads 48 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Barr, and 3 percent for Nader.

Voters trust Obama more to handle the economy in general by 50 percent to 43 percent and the financial crisis in particular by 50 percent to 40 percent. But that's less than the 14 point advantage he had on the economy last week and the 13 point spread between him and McCain and handling the financial crisis. But when it comes to better understanding "the economic problems people in this country are having," Obama leads 55 percent to 36 percent.

Thirty-eight percent of voters said Obama won the first presidential debate, 24 percent picked McCain, 22 percent called it a draw and 16 percent had no opinion.

Today we update Indiana, Florida, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Ohio, Georgia and Colorado in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. The candidates are statistically tied in both.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Americans support the idea of the government committing billions of dollars to secure the nation's financial institutions by 45 percent to 38 percent in a survey conducted Sept. 27-29 by the Pew Research Center but that number is way down from the 57 percent to 30 percent majority such a proposal enjoyed a week ago. Republicans and Democrats backed the idea by about the same margins but independents were more evenly split at 42 percent to 40 percent in favor. The biggest fall-off in support was among Republicans (15 percent) compared to Democrats (10 percent) and independents (12 percent).

(See also the Washington Post/ABC News poll on public reaction that we posted earlier).

Sixty-one percent of all voters said they were angry about the government having to commit billions of the Wall St. rescue, a view shared by majorities in both parties and among independents. Half of voters describe thesemlves as "scared," 43 percent as "confused" and 29 percent as "optimistic."

While voters have concerns about the bailout bill that failed yesterday in Congress, nearly 9 in 10 expressed concern that failure to pass a package could lead to a more serious economic crisis, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 5 points.

Voters split 47 percent against the bill and 45 percent for it and the numbers also divided fairly evenly on those who felt the legislation did too much to help financial institutions and those who said it did too little. Nearly half said the plan did not do enough to help the broader economy and 61 percent said it didn't do enough to help the general public.

Forty-four percent of voters said Republicans bore responsibility for the bill's failure, 21 percent blamed the Democrats and 17 percent said both sides were responsible.

The poll asked an open-ended question about whom voters blamed the most for the current situation and a quarter pointed the finger at Bush, 8 percent named Congress and the federal government in general, and both Republicans and Democrats were each cited by 5 percent.

Despite all the gloom, four in 10 said they were optimistic about the state of the economy over the next year and six in 10 are optimistic about their family's financial situation.

Today we update North Carolina - where Democrat Kay Hagan has pulled ahead of Republican Elizabeth Dole - and Kentucky - where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell finds himself in a dead heat with Democrat Bruce Lunsford in the latest polls. We also update Iowa in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Florida and North Carolina in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. The candidates are statistically tied in both.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

A number of polls today show Barack Obama continuing the trend of last week and over the weekend.

Gallup's daily tracking poll was unchanged from yesterday, Obama leading John McCain 50-42 percent with a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

Rasmussen's daily poll shows Obama with 50 percent support for the fourth day in a row, with McCain garnering 45 percent.

Both polls were conducted Sept. 26-28.

A Gallup/USA Today poll conducted over the weekend shows the public doesn't have much confidence in anyone in Washington to handle the financial crisis.

A majority of the public disapproves of how the Democratic leaders (50%), the Republican leaders (58%), Terasury Secretary Henry Paulson (51%), President Bush (68%) and Republican presidential nominee John McCain (53%) are responding to the problems of Wall Street. Only Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama escaped a bit of the public wrath, with a 43% disapproval rate and a 46% approval rate.

The pollsters note that among crucial independent voters, "Obama and McCain receive nearly identical ratings ... and they're not positive. Only about a third of independents approve of the way each candidate has responded."

The telephone survey was conducted before Sunday's announcement that an agreement had been reached, and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

We don't always post the daily tracking polls because they tend to be so incremental. However, Gallup today has Barack Obama opening a 50 percent to 42 percent lead in the surveying it did Sept. 25-27. The lead is just one point shy of his best showing this year, Gallup says. The survey period included the frenetic days when the Wall Street crisis reached a head, John McCain suspending his campaign and proposing postponement of the debates, plus one day of interviewing after the debates. A separate Gallup poll on just the debate itself declared Obama the winner by 12 points.

Rasmussen Report has Obama ahead 50 percent to 44 percent which Rasmussen also says is the biggest lead Obama has enjoyed in its daily tracking poll.

The Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent.

Research 2000 puts Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent.

Americans say 46 percent to 34 percent that Barack Obama was the winner of the first presidential debate in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 27, the day after the debate. Sixty-three percent of those polled said they had watched the debate, 12 percent said they had seen or heard news coverage of it and 25 percent said they had neither seen the debate or news coverage of it. (So, what are we supposed to make of that as far as the poll results?)

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 27 gave Obama a much narrow 36 percent to 33 percent edge with 31 percent undecided. That lead is equal to the 3 point margin of error. Eighty-seven percent of respondents said they watched some, most or all of it.

Asked in the Gallup survey, which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country's problems as evidenced in the debate, Obama bested McCain 52 percent to 35 percent.

Today we update Louisiana in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Iowa, Louisiana, New York and California in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. See today's CQ Politics' story on our ratings changes.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

In an almost-instant poll following the first presidential debate, Barack Obama emerged ahead of John McCain.

A CBS News/Knowledge Network poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that 40 percent thought Obama was the winner, 22 percent though McCain won and 38 percent called it a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama improved as a result of the debate.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll of people who had watched the debates said 51 percent thought Obama did the better job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said McCain did better.

Sixty percent of viewers said they thought McCain did better than they expected while 57 percent said the same of Obama. More than two-thirs said they believed either man was capable of handling the job of President.

Debate watchers gave Obama a 58 percent to 37 percent edge on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and Obama bested McCain by a similar margin about who would better handle, in specific, the current financial crisis.

On McCain's forte (at least in most polls), national security, he led Obama only by 49 percent to 45 percent, which was with the poll's 4.5 point margin of error.

CNN polling director Keating Holland said, "The real test will come in a few days when we see whether support for Obama or McCain changes in polls involving all voters, not just debate watchers...(John) Kerry also won the third debate in 2004 with the same numbers that Obama got in tonight's poll, but his support dropped five points after that event."

Today we update California, Virginia, Florida and Missouri in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. See today's CQ Politics' story on our ratings changes.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Most Americans want Congress to pass a plan that would help fix the Wall Street financial crisis, but a majority want one that is different from the Bush administration proposal, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 24.

Only 11 percent of those surveyed said Congress should take no action. Twenty-two percent said it should pass a proposal similar to what Treausyr Secretary Henry Paulson laid out and 56 percent said they should pass a plan different from that of the administration. About three-quarters of Americans believe the financial crisis will get worse if Congress does not act.

Forty percent of Americans say this is the biggest financial crisis of their lifetime while about a quarter class it as a major crisis, but not the worst they've seen.

Nearly two-thirds say that it is very important any government plan puts limits on executive compensation at companies that would be assisted. Eight percent say it is very or somewhat important that the plan also include provisions to help homeowners who cannot pay their mortgages.

John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, leading him 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided in a George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 21-25. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. McCain had led by4 points earlier this month. When asked unaided who they would vote for without the minor ticket candidates, McCain and Obama were tied at 43 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 38 percent while Obama's is 57 percent to 39 percent.

Forty-four percent of voters think McCain is running the more negative campaign compared to 32 percent who believe that of Obama with 12 percent saying both and 9 percent saying neither. That's little changed from earlier this month.

Asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate in their home districts, voters said Democrat by 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. Voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing by 77 percent to 17 percent.

Whether the debate on foreign policy goes forward or not tomorrow night, John McCain still rates significantly higher than Barack Obama when it comes to knowledge of world affairs, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. Twenty-two percent of respondents thought Obama was "very knowledgable" while 45 percent called McCain "very knowledgable".

Obama fared better when voters were asked about how confident they were in each candidate's ability to make the right decisions about foreign policy: 24 percent thought Obama was "very" able compared to 23 percent for McCain.

Obama was favored over McCain as the choice for president, 48-43 percent with 7 percent undecided.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 21-24 and the margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Today we update North Carolina, Colorado, Alabama, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, Delaware, Michigan, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Arkansas and New Hampshire in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. CQ Politics is changing its rating on Virginia from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update North Carolina, Maine, Oregon and Alabama in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

No Clear Favorite

Voters say by a 53 percent to 42 percent margin that Friday's presidential debate should go on as planned despite John McCain's call to cancel it while the nation deals with its financial crisis, according to a Marist Institute poll conducted yesterday. The margin of error is 5 percent. Democrats favor pushing on 80 percent to 15 percent, Republicans side with McCain 76 percent to 21 percent and independents want the debate to proceed by 53 percent to 40 percent.

However, in polling conducted Sept. 22-23, 48 percent of registered voters said the candidates should talk about economic issues, given the ongoing economic turmoil, as opposed to foreign policy which is the topic of the first debate. A majority of Democrats and independents expressed that view as did 41 percent of Republicans. It was Obama who sought foreign policy as the lead-off topic before financial events came to their recent head, wanting to tackle first questions about his foreign policy credentials and then close the debates out with the last one being on what he believes to be his strong suit, domestic policy.

Twenty-eight percent of voters say the face-offs will help them make up their minds, while 71 percent said they had already decided their choice. For undecided voters, 87 percent are counting on the debates to help them choose and the same is true for 38 percent of independents.

Expectations are higher for Obama: 48 percent expect him to win compared to 37 percent for McCain. The New York Times this week did a pair of pieces looking at the debating strengths and weaknesses of Obama and McCain.

While several polls this week said that the current financial crisis had given a lift to Barack Obama because voters saw him more favorably on economic issues, the flip side is that views of John McCain have turned more negative, according to a Pew Research Center poll Sept. 19-22. Pew says half the public said their opinion of McCain had changed in the past few days with 30 percent saying they had changed unfavorably and 20 percent saying they had become more favorable. The poll was conducted before Wednesday's dramatic announcement by McCain that he was suspending his campaign while work on a solution to the crisis continued, and asked for postponement of Friday's first debate.

By contrast, of those who have changed their opinion of Obama in this period, 25 percent say they see him more favorably and 20 percent say less.

Looking ahead to the debate, Pew found a different set of expectations about who would do better than a Marist poll we posted earlier in which voters said Obama would be the winner by 48 percent to 37 percent. The Pew poll has 42 percent picking McCain compared to 39 percent for Obama.

The other major national polls this week:

Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 percent. The lead is only 46 percent to 44 percent if all registered voters are counted. With more than a month to go till election day, the poll said only about 10 percent of registered voters were still undecided or wavering.

Obama appears to have benefited from voters being especially focused on economic issues during the current financial crisis. Registered voters preferred his ideas on the economy over McCain's by 46 percent to 32 percent. They preferred Obama on dealing with rising oil and gasoline prices by 46 percent to 31 percent and on health care by 54 percent to 25 percent.

McCain has kept the race close by making gains among independents, among whom he leads 49 percent to 34 percent, and due to the enthusiasm of supporters over his choice of Sarah Palin. Forty-three percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents said McCain's choice of her made them more likely to vote Republican. But Times/Bloomberg said "the terrain is shifting in Obama's favor."

Some negatives for Obama is that about a quarter for former Hillary Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain. And the 37 percent of voters that had an unfavorable impression of him attributed that to his inexperience.

Barack Obama has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over John McCain among registered voters with two percent choosing neither and 3 percent undecided in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 points and the numbers includes leaners. Obama had led by 3 points in August and by 6 points in July. This poll differs from this week's Washington Post/ABC News and Fox News which both had Obama regaining statistically significant leads.

Today we update New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana, Florida and Hawaii in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Colorado and New Hampshire in our round-up of polls on Senate races. Democrats in both states have slipped in a pair of new polls. CQ Politics is also changing its rating on the New Mexico race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Barack Obama wanted the order of topics for the upcoming presidential debates to be changed so that foreign policy would come first so he could take on the challenge of showing his credentials in that area, not to mention setting up the last debate as the face-off over the economy which voters cite as the top issue in the campaign. Whether that first debate will go off as planned is in question because John McCain has asked for postponement until the bailout proposal to deal with the Wall Street crisis is worked out).

A Pew Research Center survey released today leaves no doubt what the public's priorities are. Americans say by 60 percent to 21 percent that the next President should focus on domestic rather than foreign policy.

When it does come to foreign policy issues Americans care about, the top three - cited by three-quarters or more of those polled - are protecting the U.S. from terrorist attacks, protecting American jobs and reducing dependence on imported energy. Issues like reducing the spread of AIDS, dealing with climate change, stopping acts of genocide, strengthening the United Nations, human rights, and solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict all rank significantly lower, and interest in several has declined.

On the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Barack Obama reclaiming the lead in the presidential race, a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey conducted Sept. 22-23 has Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

McCain is leading Obama by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent of likely voters with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 6percent expressing no opinion or having another choice, according to an NPR News poll of 14 battleground states. The margin of error is 3.46 percent. In its August poll, Obama had led by 3 points.

Looking at the electorate from the perspective of cultural and consumer habits, voters who prefer Starbucks also prefer Obama, by 52 percent to 39 percent. Dunkin' Donuts voters back McCain 47 percent to 43 percent. Customers who shop frequently at Wal-Mart back McCain 58 percent to 33 percent. Wal-Mart women back McCain 58 percent to 34 percent. Sarah Palin individually does even better than that: she gets 63 percent to 23 percent support among them. However, women under 34 have an unfavorable view of Palin by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin.

Americans believe Barack Obama can better address the country's problems by a 47 percent to 35 percent margin over John McCain. Obama also leads among independents, 44 percent to 30 percent, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 19-22.

Obama also had an edge in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 20-21 on who voters thought best to turn the economy around, but it was by a lesser 49 percent to 45 percent. Voters split about evenly on which candidate they trusted more to preserve Social Security and other safety net programs for older Americans.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Sept, 19-21 said Obama would do a better job of handling the financial crisis by 48 percent to 35 percent.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 19-22 says voters trust Obama to handle the economy by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin over McCain, and to fix the problems with major financial institutions by a 51 percent to 38 percent margin.

After weeks of running neck-to-neck with John McCain, the current economic crisis has shaken up the presidential race and put Barack Obama ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent liking neither candidate and 3 percent undecided in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 percent. When Libertarian Bob Barr at 1 percent and Ralph Nader at 2 percent are factored in, Obama's lead is 51 percent to 43 percent. McCain had led 49 percent to 47 percent in this poll right after the Republican convention.

The economy is far and away the top issue of the campaign, cited by 50 percent of voters with Iraq a distant second at 9 percent. Voters trust Obama to handle the economy by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin over McCain, and to fix the problems with major financial institutions by a 51 percent to 38 percent margin.

There were conflicting polls today on how Americans feel about the Wall Street bailout but the differences probably have to do with the wording of the questions.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 19-22 said the public favors the idea of the government bailing out Wall Street by 57 percent to 30 percent with 13 percent undecided. The highest level of support is among Republicans who back such action by 64 percent to 28 percent, but more than half of Democrats and independents approve as well. But surveys by Rasmussen Reports, Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Washington Post/ABC News present different perspectives.

The respondents in the Pew poll held their view is held even though most of them gave low marks so far to the government on its handling of the crisis. Only 2 percent said the government's performance was excellent, 17 percent graded it "good" and 77 percent said it was "only fair" or poor. Fifty-six percent say they are closely following the news of the current crisis but only 24 percent say they understand the problems on Wall Street very well.

While most elected officials would relish a 68 percent to 27 percent approval rating, that number is way down from previous ratings for Sarah Palin in an Ivan Moore Research poll conducted Sept. 20-22. Her numbers were 82 percent to 13 percent in Moore's Aug. 30- Sept. 2 poll, the range she had been in since January. Although her support among Republicans is mostly unchanged, Democrats went from giving her good marks by 60 percent to 33 percent, to disapproving now by 59 percent to 36 percent which no doubt had to do with their presidential preferences.

We've updated Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, California and Florida in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Today we update New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia and Kansas in our round-up of polls on Senate races. CQ Politics is also changing its rating on the New Mexico race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

After falling to a 5 point lead over Republicans in party identification after the GOP convention, Democrats have rebounded to a 49 percent to 39 percent advantage, according to a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 20-22.

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Today we update Ohio ("No Clear Favorite"), Michigan ("Leans Democrat"), New Hampshire ("No Clear Favorite"), New Mexico ("No Clear Favorite"), Pennsylvania ("Democrat Favored"), Virginia ("Leans Republican"), Florida ("No Clear Favorite"), Minnesota ("Leans Democratic"), North Carolina ("Leans Republican"), Georgia ("Republican Favored"), New Jersey ("Safe Democrat"), South Dakota ("Safe Republican") and Wisconsin ("Leans Democrat") in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update New Mexico ("Leans Democrat") in our round-up of polls on Senate races.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of polls on Senate races by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Helped by the issue of the economy, Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 3 points. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 51 percent to 46 percent. If third party candidates Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are included, Obama has a 48 percent to 45 percent lead among likely voters, with Nader getting 4 percent and Barr and green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney at 1 percent each.

Registered voters blame Republicans over Democrats for the current financial crisis by 47 percent to 24 percent with 8 percent saying neither party is to blame. Obama has a 6 point lead over McCain on who voters think would handle the crisis better and a 10 point lead in terms of managing the economy overall.

"The economy has always been considered John McCain's Achilles' heel, and the CNN poll of polls started to show an Obama edge in the middle of last week -- just as the financial crisis began to hit home for many Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Obama appears to have turned back McCain's gains on the issue of "change," leading him by 14 points compared to the 8 point margin he had just after the GOP convention.

Thirty-five percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, up 8 points from CNN's previous survey.

The Barack Obama-Joseph Biden ticket is now in a statistical tie with John McCain-Sarah Palin on the question of who understands women and what's important to them, according to an "Every Woman Counts" poll conducted for Lifetime Networks between Sept. 11-15. Obama had led McCain 52 percent to 18 percent with 11 percent saying "neither" in this survey in July, but now McCain leads 44 percent to 42 percent.

The poll weighed in on a question that had come up both with Hillary Clinton and Palin: whether press treatment of them had been sexist or unfair. Fifty-six percent said coverage of Clinton was fair while 40 percent said it was not, and respondents said the same thing of Palin but by a 50 percent to 42 percent margin.

Fifty-seven percent of women who voted for Clinton in the primaries were upset that Obama didn't select her as running mate. Twenty-three percent say they will vote for McCain compared to 18 percent in July.

Today we update Florida ("No Clear Favorite") and Illinois ("Safe Democratic") and Nevada ("No Clear Favorite") in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of state-by-state match-ups between Obama and McCain by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. And, also visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update North Carolina, Illinois, Iowa and South Carolina in our round-up of polls on Senate races.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of polls on Senate races by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

  • No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

  • Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

  • Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

  • Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.