Barack Obama's margin over John McCain has narrowed to 50 percent to 46 percent compared to the 9 point lead he enjoyed a week ago in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 27-29. The margin of error is 3 points and the numbers include likely voters and leaners. Obama appears to be getting a boost from greater voter trust in him to handle the economy, in the wake of the worsening financial crisis. For President Bush, it's the opposite: 70 percent of voters said they disapproved of his performance, the highest number so far, and 74 percent disapprove of the way he is handling the economy.

If Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are factored into the race, Obama leads 48 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Barr, and 3 percent for Nader.

Voters trust Obama more to handle the economy in general by 50 percent to 43 percent and the financial crisis in particular by 50 percent to 40 percent. But that's less than the 14 point advantage he had on the economy last week and the 13 point spread between him and McCain and handling the financial crisis. But when it comes to better understanding "the economic problems people in this country are having," Obama leads 55 percent to 36 percent.

Thirty-eight percent of voters said Obama won the first presidential debate, 24 percent picked McCain, 22 percent called it a draw and 16 percent had no opinion.

Today we update Indiana, Florida, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Ohio, Georgia and Colorado in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. The candidates are statistically tied in both.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Americans support the idea of the government committing billions of dollars to secure the nation's financial institutions by 45 percent to 38 percent in a survey conducted Sept. 27-29 by the Pew Research Center but that number is way down from the 57 percent to 30 percent majority such a proposal enjoyed a week ago. Republicans and Democrats backed the idea by about the same margins but independents were more evenly split at 42 percent to 40 percent in favor. The biggest fall-off in support was among Republicans (15 percent) compared to Democrats (10 percent) and independents (12 percent).

(See also the Washington Post/ABC News poll on public reaction that we posted earlier).

Sixty-one percent of all voters said they were angry about the government having to commit billions of the Wall St. rescue, a view shared by majorities in both parties and among independents. Half of voters describe thesemlves as "scared," 43 percent as "confused" and 29 percent as "optimistic."

While voters have concerns about the bailout bill that failed yesterday in Congress, nearly 9 in 10 expressed concern that failure to pass a package could lead to a more serious economic crisis, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 29. The margin of error is 5 points.

Voters split 47 percent against the bill and 45 percent for it and the numbers also divided fairly evenly on those who felt the legislation did too much to help financial institutions and those who said it did too little. Nearly half said the plan did not do enough to help the broader economy and 61 percent said it didn't do enough to help the general public.

Forty-four percent of voters said Republicans bore responsibility for the bill's failure, 21 percent blamed the Democrats and 17 percent said both sides were responsible.

The poll asked an open-ended question about whom voters blamed the most for the current situation and a quarter pointed the finger at Bush, 8 percent named Congress and the federal government in general, and both Republicans and Democrats were each cited by 5 percent.

Despite all the gloom, four in 10 said they were optimistic about the state of the economy over the next year and six in 10 are optimistic about their family's financial situation.

Today we update North Carolina - where Democrat Kay Hagan has pulled ahead of Republican Elizabeth Dole - and Kentucky - where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell finds himself in a dead heat with Democrat Bruce Lunsford in the latest polls. We also update Iowa in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Florida and North Carolina in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. The candidates are statistically tied in both.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

A number of polls today show Barack Obama continuing the trend of last week and over the weekend.

Gallup's daily tracking poll was unchanged from yesterday, Obama leading John McCain 50-42 percent with a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

Rasmussen's daily poll shows Obama with 50 percent support for the fourth day in a row, with McCain garnering 45 percent.

Both polls were conducted Sept. 26-28.

A Gallup/USA Today poll conducted over the weekend shows the public doesn't have much confidence in anyone in Washington to handle the financial crisis.

A majority of the public disapproves of how the Democratic leaders (50%), the Republican leaders (58%), Terasury Secretary Henry Paulson (51%), President Bush (68%) and Republican presidential nominee John McCain (53%) are responding to the problems of Wall Street. Only Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama escaped a bit of the public wrath, with a 43% disapproval rate and a 46% approval rate.

The pollsters note that among crucial independent voters, "Obama and McCain receive nearly identical ratings ... and they're not positive. Only about a third of independents approve of the way each candidate has responded."

The telephone survey was conducted before Sunday's announcement that an agreement had been reached, and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

We don't always post the daily tracking polls because they tend to be so incremental. However, Gallup today has Barack Obama opening a 50 percent to 42 percent lead in the surveying it did Sept. 25-27. The lead is just one point shy of his best showing this year, Gallup says. The survey period included the frenetic days when the Wall Street crisis reached a head, John McCain suspending his campaign and proposing postponement of the debates, plus one day of interviewing after the debates. A separate Gallup poll on just the debate itself declared Obama the winner by 12 points.

Rasmussen Report has Obama ahead 50 percent to 44 percent which Rasmussen also says is the biggest lead Obama has enjoyed in its daily tracking poll.

The Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll had Obama ahead 47 percent to 42 percent.

Research 2000 puts Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent.

Americans say 46 percent to 34 percent that Barack Obama was the winner of the first presidential debate in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 27, the day after the debate. Sixty-three percent of those polled said they had watched the debate, 12 percent said they had seen or heard news coverage of it and 25 percent said they had neither seen the debate or news coverage of it. (So, what are we supposed to make of that as far as the poll results?)

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 27 gave Obama a much narrow 36 percent to 33 percent edge with 31 percent undecided. That lead is equal to the 3 point margin of error. Eighty-seven percent of respondents said they watched some, most or all of it.

Asked in the Gallup survey, which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country's problems as evidenced in the debate, Obama bested McCain 52 percent to 35 percent.

Today we update Louisiana in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Iowa, Louisiana, New York and California in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. See today's CQ Politics' story on our ratings changes.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

In an almost-instant poll following the first presidential debate, Barack Obama emerged ahead of John McCain.

A CBS News/Knowledge Network poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that 40 percent thought Obama was the winner, 22 percent though McCain won and 38 percent called it a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama improved as a result of the debate.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll of people who had watched the debates said 51 percent thought Obama did the better job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said McCain did better.

Sixty percent of viewers said they thought McCain did better than they expected while 57 percent said the same of Obama. More than two-thirs said they believed either man was capable of handling the job of President.

Debate watchers gave Obama a 58 percent to 37 percent edge on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and Obama bested McCain by a similar margin about who would better handle, in specific, the current financial crisis.

On McCain's forte (at least in most polls), national security, he led Obama only by 49 percent to 45 percent, which was with the poll's 4.5 point margin of error.

CNN polling director Keating Holland said, "The real test will come in a few days when we see whether support for Obama or McCain changes in polls involving all voters, not just debate watchers...(John) Kerry also won the third debate in 2004 with the same numbers that Obama got in tonight's poll, but his support dropped five points after that event."

Today we update California, Virginia, Florida and Missouri in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. See today's CQ Politics' story on our ratings changes.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Most Americans want Congress to pass a plan that would help fix the Wall Street financial crisis, but a majority want one that is different from the Bush administration proposal, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 24.

Only 11 percent of those surveyed said Congress should take no action. Twenty-two percent said it should pass a proposal similar to what Treausyr Secretary Henry Paulson laid out and 56 percent said they should pass a plan different from that of the administration. About three-quarters of Americans believe the financial crisis will get worse if Congress does not act.

Forty percent of Americans say this is the biggest financial crisis of their lifetime while about a quarter class it as a major crisis, but not the worst they've seen.

Nearly two-thirds say that it is very important any government plan puts limits on executive compensation at companies that would be assisted. Eight percent say it is very or somewhat important that the plan also include provisions to help homeowners who cannot pay their mortgages.

John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama, leading him 47 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 5 percent undecided in a George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted Sept. 21-25. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. McCain had led by4 points earlier this month. When asked unaided who they would vote for without the minor ticket candidates, McCain and Obama were tied at 43 percent. McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 58 percent to 38 percent while Obama's is 57 percent to 39 percent.

Forty-four percent of voters think McCain is running the more negative campaign compared to 32 percent who believe that of Obama with 12 percent saying both and 9 percent saying neither. That's little changed from earlier this month.

Asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate in their home districts, voters said Democrat by 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent undecided. Voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing by 77 percent to 17 percent.

Whether the debate on foreign policy goes forward or not tomorrow night, John McCain still rates significantly higher than Barack Obama when it comes to knowledge of world affairs, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. Twenty-two percent of respondents thought Obama was "very knowledgable" while 45 percent called McCain "very knowledgable".

Obama fared better when voters were asked about how confident they were in each candidate's ability to make the right decisions about foreign policy: 24 percent thought Obama was "very" able compared to 23 percent for McCain.

Obama was favored over McCain as the choice for president, 48-43 percent with 7 percent undecided.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 21-24 and the margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Today we update North Carolina, Colorado, Alabama, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Maine, Oregon, Delaware, Michigan, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Arkansas and New Hampshire in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. CQ Politics is changing its rating on Virginia from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update North Carolina, Maine, Oregon and Alabama in our round-up of polls on Senate races. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

No Clear Favorite

Voters say by a 53 percent to 42 percent margin that Friday's presidential debate should go on as planned despite John McCain's call to cancel it while the nation deals with its financial crisis, according to a Marist Institute poll conducted yesterday. The margin of error is 5 percent. Democrats favor pushing on 80 percent to 15 percent, Republicans side with McCain 76 percent to 21 percent and independents want the debate to proceed by 53 percent to 40 percent.

However, in polling conducted Sept. 22-23, 48 percent of registered voters said the candidates should talk about economic issues, given the ongoing economic turmoil, as opposed to foreign policy which is the topic of the first debate. A majority of Democrats and independents expressed that view as did 41 percent of Republicans. It was Obama who sought foreign policy as the lead-off topic before financial events came to their recent head, wanting to tackle first questions about his foreign policy credentials and then close the debates out with the last one being on what he believes to be his strong suit, domestic policy.

Twenty-eight percent of voters say the face-offs will help them make up their minds, while 71 percent said they had already decided their choice. For undecided voters, 87 percent are counting on the debates to help them choose and the same is true for 38 percent of independents.

Expectations are higher for Obama: 48 percent expect him to win compared to 37 percent for McCain. The New York Times this week did a pair of pieces looking at the debating strengths and weaknesses of Obama and McCain.

While several polls this week said that the current financial crisis had given a lift to Barack Obama because voters saw him more favorably on economic issues, the flip side is that views of John McCain have turned more negative, according to a Pew Research Center poll Sept. 19-22. Pew says half the public said their opinion of McCain had changed in the past few days with 30 percent saying they had changed unfavorably and 20 percent saying they had become more favorable. The poll was conducted before Wednesday's dramatic announcement by McCain that he was suspending his campaign while work on a solution to the crisis continued, and asked for postponement of Friday's first debate.

By contrast, of those who have changed their opinion of Obama in this period, 25 percent say they see him more favorably and 20 percent say less.

Looking ahead to the debate, Pew found a different set of expectations about who would do better than a Marist poll we posted earlier in which voters said Obama would be the winner by 48 percent to 37 percent. The Pew poll has 42 percent picking McCain compared to 39 percent for Obama.

The other major national polls this week:

• Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg: Obama 49, McCain 45.
• Wall Street Journal/NBC News: Obama 48, McCain 46.
• Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: Obama 45, McCain 39.
• Washington Post/ABC News: Obama 52, McCain 43.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 percent. The lead is only 46 percent to 44 percent if all registered voters are counted. With more than a month to go till election day, the poll said only about 10 percent of registered voters were still undecided or wavering.

Obama appears to have benefited from voters being especially focused on economic issues during the current financial crisis. Registered voters preferred his ideas on the economy over McCain's by 46 percent to 32 percent. They preferred Obama on dealing with rising oil and gasoline prices by 46 percent to 31 percent and on health care by 54 percent to 25 percent.

McCain has kept the race close by making gains among independents, among whom he leads 49 percent to 34 percent, and due to the enthusiasm of supporters over his choice of Sarah Palin. Forty-three percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents said McCain's choice of her made them more likely to vote Republican. But Times/Bloomberg said "the terrain is shifting in Obama's favor."

Some negatives for Obama is that about a quarter for former Hillary Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain. And the 37 percent of voters that had an unfavorable impression of him attributed that to his inexperience.

Barack Obama has a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent lead over John McCain among registered voters with two percent choosing neither and 3 percent undecided in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 points and the numbers includes leaners. Obama had led by 3 points in August and by 6 points in July. This poll differs from this week's Washington Post/ABC News and Fox News which both had Obama regaining statistically significant leads.

Today we update New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana, Florida and Hawaii in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update Colorado and New Hampshire in our round-up of polls on Senate races. Democrats in both states have slipped in a pair of new polls. CQ Politics is also changing its rating on the New Mexico race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Barack Obama wanted the order of topics for the upcoming presidential debates to be changed so that foreign policy would come first so he could take on the challenge of showing his credentials in that area, not to mention setting up the last debate as the face-off over the economy which voters cite as the top issue in the campaign. Whether that first debate will go off as planned is in question because John McCain has asked for postponement until the bailout proposal to deal with the Wall Street crisis is worked out).

A Pew Research Center survey released today leaves no doubt what the public's priorities are. Americans say by 60 percent to 21 percent that the next President should focus on domestic rather than foreign policy.

When it does come to foreign policy issues Americans care about, the top three - cited by three-quarters or more of those polled - are protecting the U.S. from terrorist attacks, protecting American jobs and reducing dependence on imported energy. Issues like reducing the spread of AIDS, dealing with climate change, stopping acts of genocide, strengthening the United Nations, human rights, and solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict all rank significantly lower, and interest in several has declined.

On the heels of a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Barack Obama reclaiming the lead in the presidential race, a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey conducted Sept. 22-23 has Obama leading McCain 45 percent to 39 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

McCain is leading Obama by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 44 percent of likely voters with 3 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 6percent expressing no opinion or having another choice, according to an NPR News poll of 14 battleground states. The margin of error is 3.46 percent. In its August poll, Obama had led by 3 points.

Looking at the electorate from the perspective of cultural and consumer habits, voters who prefer Starbucks also prefer Obama, by 52 percent to 39 percent. Dunkin' Donuts voters back McCain 47 percent to 43 percent. Customers who shop frequently at Wal-Mart back McCain 58 percent to 33 percent. Wal-Mart women back McCain 58 percent to 34 percent. Sarah Palin individually does even better than that: she gets 63 percent to 23 percent support among them. However, women under 34 have an unfavorable view of Palin by a 48 percent to 36 percent margin.

Americans believe Barack Obama can better address the country's problems by a 47 percent to 35 percent margin over John McCain. Obama also leads among independents, 44 percent to 30 percent, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 19-22.

Obama also had an edge in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 20-21 on who voters thought best to turn the economy around, but it was by a lesser 49 percent to 45 percent. Voters split about evenly on which candidate they trusted more to preserve Social Security and other safety net programs for older Americans.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll conducted Sept, 19-21 said Obama would do a better job of handling the financial crisis by 48 percent to 35 percent.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 19-22 says voters trust Obama to handle the economy by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin over McCain, and to fix the problems with major financial institutions by a 51 percent to 38 percent margin.

After weeks of running neck-to-neck with John McCain, the current economic crisis has shaken up the presidential race and put Barack Obama ahead 52 percent to 43 percent with 1 percent liking neither candidate and 3 percent undecided in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 19-22. The margin of error is 3 percent. When Libertarian Bob Barr at 1 percent and Ralph Nader at 2 percent are factored in, Obama's lead is 51 percent to 43 percent. McCain had led 49 percent to 47 percent in this poll right after the Republican convention.

The economy is far and away the top issue of the campaign, cited by 50 percent of voters with Iraq a distant second at 9 percent. Voters trust Obama to handle the economy by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin over McCain, and to fix the problems with major financial institutions by a 51 percent to 38 percent margin.

There were conflicting polls today on how Americans feel about the Wall Street bailout but the differences probably have to do with the wording of the questions.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 19-22 said the public favors the idea of the government bailing out Wall Street by 57 percent to 30 percent with 13 percent undecided. The highest level of support is among Republicans who back such action by 64 percent to 28 percent, but more than half of Democrats and independents approve as well. But surveys by Rasmussen Reports, Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg and Washington Post/ABC News present different perspectives.

The respondents in the Pew poll held their view is held even though most of them gave low marks so far to the government on its handling of the crisis. Only 2 percent said the government's performance was excellent, 17 percent graded it "good" and 77 percent said it was "only fair" or poor. Fifty-six percent say they are closely following the news of the current crisis but only 24 percent say they understand the problems on Wall Street very well.

While most elected officials would relish a 68 percent to 27 percent approval rating, that number is way down from previous ratings for Sarah Palin in an Ivan Moore Research poll conducted Sept. 20-22. Her numbers were 82 percent to 13 percent in Moore's Aug. 30- Sept. 2 poll, the range she had been in since January. Although her support among Republicans is mostly unchanged, Democrats went from giving her good marks by 60 percent to 33 percent, to disapproving now by 59 percent to 36 percent which no doubt had to do with their presidential preferences.

We've updated Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, California and Florida in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain. We are also putting three states into different categories. Indiana and North Carolina move from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." And Poll Tracker sheepishly admits it got out of synch with our race ratings team, and is moving Pennsylvania from "Democrat Favored" to "Leans Democratic."

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electoral scenario.

Today we update New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia and Kansas in our round-up of polls on Senate races. CQ Politics is also changing its rating on the New Mexico race from "Leans Democrat" to "Democrat Favored."

To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

After falling to a 5 point lead over Republicans in party identification after the GOP convention, Democrats have rebounded to a 49 percent to 39 percent advantage, according to a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 20-22.

Today we update Ohio ("No Clear Favorite"), Michigan ("Leans Democrat"), New Hampshire ("No Clear Favorite"), New Mexico ("No Clear Favorite"), Pennsylvania ("Democrat Favored"), Virginia ("Leans Republican"), Florida ("No Clear Favorite"), Minnesota ("Leans Democratic"), North Carolina ("Leans Republican"), Georgia ("Republican Favored"), New Jersey ("Safe Democrat"), South Dakota ("Safe Republican") and Wisconsin ("Leans Democrat") in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of our race ratings categories. Use this link for background on how we arrive at them

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update New Mexico ("Leans Democrat") in our round-up of polls on Senate races.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of polls on Senate races by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Helped by the issue of the economy, Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 19-21. The margin of error is 3 points. Among all registered voters, Obama's lead is 51 percent to 46 percent. If third party candidates Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr are included, Obama has a 48 percent to 45 percent lead among likely voters, with Nader getting 4 percent and Barr and green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney at 1 percent each.

Registered voters blame Republicans over Democrats for the current financial crisis by 47 percent to 24 percent with 8 percent saying neither party is to blame. Obama has a 6 point lead over McCain on who voters think would handle the crisis better and a 10 point lead in terms of managing the economy overall.

"The economy has always been considered John McCain's Achilles' heel, and the CNN poll of polls started to show an Obama edge in the middle of last week -- just as the financial crisis began to hit home for many Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Obama appears to have turned back McCain's gains on the issue of "change," leading him by 14 points compared to the 8 point margin he had just after the GOP convention.

Thirty-five percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, up 8 points from CNN's previous survey.

The Barack Obama-Joseph Biden ticket is now in a statistical tie with John McCain-Sarah Palin on the question of who understands women and what's important to them, according to an "Every Woman Counts" poll conducted for Lifetime Networks between Sept. 11-15. Obama had led McCain 52 percent to 18 percent with 11 percent saying "neither" in this survey in July, but now McCain leads 44 percent to 42 percent.

The poll weighed in on a question that had come up both with Hillary Clinton and Palin: whether press treatment of them had been sexist or unfair. Fifty-six percent said coverage of Clinton was fair while 40 percent said it was not, and respondents said the same thing of Palin but by a 50 percent to 42 percent margin.

Fifty-seven percent of women who voted for Clinton in the primaries were upset that Obama didn't select her as running mate. Twenty-three percent say they will vote for McCain compared to 18 percent in July.

Today we update Florida ("No Clear Favorite") and Illinois ("Safe Democratic") and Nevada ("No Clear Favorite") in our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of state-by-state match-ups between Obama and McCain by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. And, also visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Today we update North Carolina, Illinois, Iowa and South Carolina in our round-up of polls on Senate races.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of polls on Senate races by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. To keep up with our race ratings, you can also go to our Senate Races to Watch page. Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.

• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.

• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

More than a third of all white Democrats agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, raising the question of how much racial misgivings could count in the presidential race if the election is close, according to an Associated Press/Ipsos poll conduct Aug. 27-Sept. 5.

But the poll also found other non-racial factors contributing to Barack Obama's difficulties in breaking away from opponent John McCain.

AP says the poll's statistical model indicates that Obama's support could be as much as 6 points higher if there were no racial prejudice. Among the third of white Democrats who agreed with at least one negative adjective, 58 percent said they would vote for Barack Obama.

"There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few bigots," said Paul Sniderman, a political scientist at Stanford University with whom the poll was conducted.

Today we update Ohio (the ninth poll of the state so far this week), Michigan (where two new polls show Barack Obama and John McCain in a statistical tie), North Carolina (where the latest poll shows the race as a tie), Missouri (statistically tied) and Illinois, South Carolina, Maine, Connecticut and Tennessee.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of state-by-state match-ups between Obama and McCain by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. And, also visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

We've decided to do a little redecorating on our page of state-by-state match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain by grouping states according to which CQ Politics race rating category they fall. You'll see some instances where you may wonder why we gave a particular rating to a state, when the polls don't seem to clearly indicate the same outcome. The answer is that polls are only one factor we take into account when we rate a race. For a fuller explanation, read the column by our Rajah of Ratings, Bob Benenson, who discusses all the elements that go into our decisions. And, also visit our Presidential election maps which give you four different ways to look at the race, including one that lets you build your own electorial scenario.

Here's a summary of the categories:

• No Clear Favorite, for races that are deemed to close to call.
• Leans Democratic and Leans Republican, for highly competitive races in which the named party is perceived to have at least a slight edge, but in which an upset is a highly plausible possibility.
• Democrat Favored and Republican Favored, for races in which the named party has a clearer advantage and is likely to win, though an upset cannot be completely ruled out.
• Safe Democratic and Safe Republican, for races in which the named party is viewed as certain to win.

Gallup: Obama 49, McCain 44

Rasmussen Reports: Obama 48, McCain 48

Research 2000: Obama 49, McCain 42

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 45, McCain 44

Today we update Alaska, North Carolina, Kentucky and Alabama in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has seen his August leads over Republican Ted Stevens drop in some polls, but he leads in the latest Research 200 survey conducted Sept. 15-17 by 50 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Begich's favorable to unfavorable numbers are 56 percent to 32 percent while Stevens is now viewed unfavorably by 56 percent and favorably by 40 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9 had Begich ahead by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Stevens' favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 45 percent compared to 61 percent to 34 percent for Begich. An Ivan Moore Research poll conducted for the Anchorage Press Aug. 30 - Sept. 1 had Begich ahead 48.9 percent to 45.6 percent margin with 3.1 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Illinois, New Hampshire, Georgia, New Jersey, Connecticut and Ohio. One series of polls that stood out was a new "Big Ten Battleground Poll" co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists. Of six states they surveyed, McCain and Obama were exactly tied or statistically tied in five: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Pennsylvania with only Obama's home state of Illinois being non-competitive. Some of these were also among the 33 updates we posted yesterday. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

Today we update New Mexico and Georgia in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• New Mexico: Rep. Tom Udall is leading Rep. Steven Pearce (60-36 percent) 56 percent to 41 percent with 3 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 14-16. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. Udall leads across the board in all gender and age groups. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 20 had Udall ahead 51 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4 percent. Udall enjoyed a 59 percent favorable rating compared to 53 percent for Pearce. Pearce had considerably cut into Udall's lead which was 25 points in July. Udall's favorable rating slipped some, while Pearce's went up. Retiring GOP Sen. Pete V. Domenici had held this seat since 1973. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democratic."

The race between John McCain and Barack Obama remains largely unchanged - it's close at Obama leading McCain 46 percent to 44 percent - but McCain has made more progress than Obama in changing voter attitudes about his candidacy and where he stands on issues, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Sept. 9-14. The horse-race figure reflects the views of registered voters, but when it is narrowed to likely voters the candidates are tied at 46 percent each. The margin of error is 2.5 points.

While Obama still bests McCain on handling the economy in the eyes of voters by 47 percent to 38 percent, Obama's number hasn't moved since July while McCain's rose 6 points. McCain gained 8 points on foreign policy putting him ahead of Obama 51 percent to 40 percent and 10 points on the issue of reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests, thus cutting Obama's lead to 40 percent to 36 percent. One measure where McCain did not improve much was on those who believe he will continue the unpopular policies of President Bush. Voters say he will do that by 45 percent to 44 percent.

Pew also said that as far as key battleground states are concerned, McCain now ties Obama at 45 percent compared to Obama's 7 point lead before the conventions.

Only about a quarter of voters believe that, if elected, it is very likely that John McCain or Barack Obama will make the changes needed on Wall Street, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept.17. If you add the "somewhat likely" voters, half believe McCain will make the necessary changes and 44 percent say it is not very likely or not likely at all. Fifty-three percent in all say Obama will do what's necessary if the "somewhat likely" votes are included, and 42 percent say it is not very likely or not likely at all.

Sixty-four percent of voters say it is very or somewhat likely that the recent bank failures will have an impact on their personal finances while 32 percent say it is not very likely or not likely at all.

While John McCain led Barack Obama for the past 10 days by at least two points in most national polls, tonight's New York Times/CBS poll may be an indication that the post-convention bounce for the Republican ticket is evaporating. Obama now leads McCain, 48-43 percent.

But the pollsters note the race is still very much up for grabs: "One-fourth of the electorate is now uncommitted, ... Roughly twenty percent of both McCain and Obama supporters say they have not yet settled definitively on their chosen candidate."

The poll brings other unwelcome findings for McCain: most voters felt he is a "typical Republican" who would "continue" the policies of the Bush administration, his supporters are less enthusiastic about him than Obama's supporters are and while there is still great enthusiasm for his vice presidential choice Sarah Palin, that selection has helped McCain only among Republican base voters.

The telephone survey of likely voters was conducted Sept. 12-16 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates 33 states, largely because of an outpouring of polls from American Research Group, and a bunch more from CNN/Time/Opinion Research and Rasmussen Reports. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Florida: Obama and McCain are tied at 48 percent each among registered voters in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 14-16. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 14 had McCain leading Obama 49 percent to 44 percent with 2 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. The two were tied in its last survey. McCain had stronger support among his party than Obama did among Democrats: 86 percent to 70 percent with 21 percent of Democrats saying they will vote for McCain. McCain also upped his lead over Obama by 2 points to 50 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. Obama's problem appeared to be that as white voters move out of the undecided camp, they were mostly headed for McCain. Obama was staying close because of his 7 point lead among Hispanic voters (13 percent of the sample) and 78 point lead among blacks (16 percent of the sample). Republicans have carried the state in four of the last five elections including, of course, the hotly-contested outcome in 2000 where the state was awarded to George Bush by a hair. CQ Politics' Election Forecast has "No Clear Favorite here.

Today we update the tight contest in Oregon in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Oregon: Two-term Republican Gordon Smith is in a statistical tie with Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley, the speaker of the state House, leading him 46 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 7 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 15. The margin of error is 4 points. Smith's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 49 percent to 46 percent while Merkley is viewed unfavorably by 46 percent and favorably by 45 percent. For more background on the race, and Smith's efforts to distance himself from the Bush administration and his party, see our story "Parties Debate Smith's Independence on the Campaign Trail" and the Washington Post's "On Obama's Coattails, an Uninvited Rider." CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

John McCain leads Barack Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent nationwide, according to George Washington University's "Battleground Poll" that was conducted by the Democratic firm Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group, a Republican firm, of 1,000 registered likely voters from Sept. 7-11. McCain and Obama have nearly identical favorable/unfavorable ratings (58/37 for McCain and 57/37 for Obama), as do vice-presidential running mates Joe Biden (49/29) and Sarah Palin (53/29). When voters were asked to compare McCain and Obama on a range of qualities, McCain led Obama on "is a strong leader" and "keeping America safe and secure" and Obama led McCain on "handling the health care issue" and "will bring change to Washington." More voters say Obama rather than McCain "will unite the country" and "fights for people like me," but McCain has significantly narrowed the gap since May.

A Rasmussen Reports survey on Sept. 14 of 500 likely voters in each of five battleground states found McCain making marginal gains in Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania and Obama gaining a bit in Ohio and Virginia. All five states, which have 90 electoral votes between them, are very close: only in Florida, where McCain leads Obama by 49 percent to 44 percent, is any candidate's advantage larger than the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. (For specific results, check out these states in our latest general election match-ups posting today).

The Battleground Poll found that in the race for Congress, respondents said, by a 48 percent to 40 percent margin, that they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate. The Democrats have the edge even though most of the public has a dim view of the Congress they control: just 19 percent approve and 72 percent disapprove of the job Congress has done this year.

John McCain's effort to claim the change mantle that Barack Obama has worn through his fight for nomination and into the general election campaign hasn't received much traction with his own supporters, according to Gallup data collected Sept. 8-11.

Gallup asked its interviewees to cite the most important reasons they are leaning towards a candidate, and only 3 percent of McCain voters cited change. The two biggest draws for McCain voters were experience (27 percent) and national security/terrorism issues (18 percent). Thirty-seven percent of Obama supports, by contrast, cited change followed by the economy which was a distant second at 16 percent. Overall, changed ranked first among respondents at 21 percent followed by experience at 12 percent.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates New Jersey, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia - important states all. We also add our first poll for Vermont. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• New Jersey: As a Siena College poll reported yesterday for New York, McCain has narrowed the gap in this traditionally Democratic state in the wake of the GOP convention. Obama has a barely significant lead of 48 percent to 45 percent with 6 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Sept. 10-14. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. In mid-August, he had led by 10 points. McCain has increased his margin among white voters from 8 points to 19 points. A quarter of all voters and more than a third of independents say it is somewhat or very likely the debates could change their minds. Quinnipiac's Clay Richards underlined the importance of the debates in saying, "The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey." Obama's lead over McCain also narrowed in a Monmouth University/Gannett poll conducted Sept.11-14 that put Obama ahead among likely voters 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. Obama led by 14 points in July. Monmouth's Patrick Murray, like other New Jersey pollsters, cautioned on reading too much into this, saying "Republican candidates often see some positive movement in September polling but have had problems maintaining that momentum." Marist Poll conducted Sept. 5-8 had Obama ahead 47 percent to 40 percent among registered voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 12 percent undecided. But when measuring likely voters including those who leaned one way or another, Obama's lead fell to 48 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's 3.5 percent margin of error. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 4-7 had Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Although it looks like McCain is closing the gap in this traditionally Democratic state, Fairleigh Dickinson's Peter Woolley said this was in part due to the spotlight of the Republican convention and while McCain "shored up his support in New Jersey...he did not cut into his opponent's support." Woolley said the choice of Sarah Palin did a good job of bolstering McCain's base, "but there is no evidence that she has attracted disaffected Clinton supporters or independents." Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race in New Jersey "Democrat Favored."

Rasmussen's results are similar, showing McCain leading Obama's 49 to 47 percent.

Both polls have a margin of error of +/- 2 points.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Ohio, which remains highly competitive, and New York, where there is something of a surprise. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Ohio: A Suffolk University poll conducted Sept. 10-13 has McCain leading Obama 46 percent to 42 percent with minor party candidates drawing 1 percent and 7 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. Voters say they trust McCain over Obama by 49 percent to 41 percent and, asked which of the four candidates on the presidential tickets are "most like you," Sarah Palin wins with 31 percent compared to 22 percent for Obama, 21 percent for McCain and 13 percent for Biden. "McCain is benefiting from Palin identification and empathy as well as a greater sense of Buckeye voter trust," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "However, should the trust firewall in Ohio break down, it could signal the beginning of an electoral blue domino effect there." An Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati, conducted Sept. 5-10, has McCain ahead of Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 5 percent preferring some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Poll co-director Eric Rademacher says the race in Ohio "has a long way to go" because as many as 23 percent of voters may still be up for grabs and more Democrats than Republicans say, at the moment, they will cross party lines to vote for the other candidate. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10 has McCain statistically tied with Obama at 48 percent to 47 percent with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided in The margin of error is 4.3 percent. That contrasts to a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7 putting McCain ahead 51 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 3 percent. The margin of error was 4 percent. Voters trusted McCain more by 54 percent to 41 percent. Forty-two percent "are not at all comfortable" with Obama as President compared to 25 percent saying that of McCain. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

In a poll done before the John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, the Pew Research Center released an 'experiment' today that found that Republicans are significantly less likely to vote for a Congressional candidate who is a mother of young children than one who is a father of young children. Twenty-one percent they would support a women candidate with young children while 31 percent supported a man with the exact same credentials and family situation.

The researchers did not ask the question directly. Instead they created hypothetical candidates and asked about them.

They note that Democrats were the opposite of Republicans: "significantly more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who is the mother of small children than to support an identical candidate who is the father of small children (33% vs. 24%). Democratic women in particular more strongly supported Ann the mother than Andrew the father (36% vs. 19%). Among Democratic men, neither gender nor parenthood made a difference."

The survey was conducted mid-June to mid-July.

Today we update Minnesota and Idaho in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Minnesota: Republican first-termer Norm Coleman is in a statistical tie with Democrat Al Franken , leading him 41 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley and 5 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 10-11. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. A Minnesota Public Radio poll conducted conducted Aug. 7-17 had Franken ahead 41 percent to 40 percent among likely voters with 8 percent for Barkley. That poll said voter dissatisfaction and anger with President Bush and the Republicans had offset Franken's problems which included questions about his taxes and a satirical piece he had done for Playboy that the Coleman camp hoped would offend Minnesotans. Barkley's entrance in the race is hurting Franken more than Coleman because he is competed with Franken for disaffected voters. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Republican."

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Minnesota, Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. There has been talk a while ago that Obama might have a chance to make a competitive run in traditionally Republican South Dakota, as well as North Dakota and Montana, but that is not the way the polls are pointing. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Minnesota: Obama and McCain are tied at 45 percent each with 10 percent undecided in a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted Sept. 10-12. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. When this poll was last conducted in May, Obama led by 13 points. Since then, the poll said McCain has "picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education." A SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 10-11 gives Obama a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.7 percent. The 55 percent who named the economy as the top issue preferred Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. Health care was the second most cited issue at 11 percent and Obama won there too by 64 percent to 30 percent. Seven percent named terrorism and they chose McCain by 96 percent to 1 percent. These surveys stand in contrast to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2 that had Obama leading 53 percent to 41 percent . The margin of error was 3.5 percent. A survey conducted Aug. 7-17 by Minnesota Public Radio and The Humphrey Institute had Obama ahead 48 percent to 38 percent with 3 percent supporting Ralph Nader, 1 percent backing Libertarian Bob Barr and 10 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3.6 percent. The Humphrey Institute's Larry Jacobs said that despite Obama's current 10 point lead, "This race is very much up in the air." Democrats have carried the state in the last five elections, but by only 3.5 percent in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2000. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Minnesota calls the state "Leans Democratic."

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 46 percent each with 8 percent undecided in a Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 10-11. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. They run evenly among independents. Obama had led by 3 points in this poll in July. A little ominously for Obama, 77 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters are supporting him, but 16 percent say they will back McCain. The survey also shows McCain gains on the issues of the economy, energy and Iraq.

McCain leads among white voters by 55 percent to 37 percent. White evangelicals and white Catholics back McCain by margins of 47 percent and 26 percent respectively. Obama leads among non-whites by 75 percent to 17 percent.

The most important factor in the campaign for Obama supporters is ability to bring about change followed by his positions on the issues. For McCain backers, three factors rank about equally - positions on the issues, experience and leadership. Voters overall say by 51 percent to 27 percent that Obama is the more likely to bring change.

While the impact of the conventions on the standings of Barack Obama and John McCain hardly had an earthquake effect on the campaign, McCain appeared to gain somewhat more than Obama largely because the GOP convention did more to solidify his base, according to a Gallup analysis.

McCain's support among liberal/moderate Republicans went up 7 points and among conservatives in the party by 3 points, while Obama gained 2 points each among liberal and moderate Democrats and 5 points among conservative Democrats. Among all registered voters, McCain showed a post-conventions gain of 3 points while Obama lost a point.

John McCain leads Barack Obama 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters with 1 percent each for Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr and 3 percent undecided in an Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Sept. 5-10. The margin of error is 3.4 percent.

Findings in the poll:

• Asked whether they though each candidate "cares a lot about people like you," 40 percent said Obama did compared to 37 percent for Sarah Palin, 36 percent for McCain and 26 percent for Joseph Biden.
• Two-thirds said the thing they most preferred in a presidential candidate was that they had values they (the voter) supported compared to 29 percent who cited "solid experience."
• Thirty-seven percent thought Palin and Obama shared their own positions on issues, although a fifth of voters didn't know enough to say so about Palin or Biden. A third said McCain shared their positions and 23 percent said that if Biden.
• McCain blew everyone else away on the question of who had the right experience to be President. Eighty percent said he did, 58 percent said Biden did, 46 percent said that of Obama and 41 percent said it of Palin.
• McCain may be catching a break on how much voters identify him with George Bush. Voters say they believe he will take the country in a different direction than Bush by 50 percent to 46 percent.
• Fourteen percent of voters think a lot of people won't support Obama because he is black and 44 percent answered that "some" won't. Seven percent of voters said "a lot" of people won't vote for McCain because of his age while 36 percent said some won't.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates New Jersey,Ohio, Washington State and Nevada. Yesterday, we updated Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Mississippi Alabama, Idaho and Wyoming. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• New Jersey: Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent among registered voters with 1 percent preferring "other" and 12 percent undecided in a Marist Poll conducted Sept. 5-8. But when measuring likely voters including those who lean one way or another, Obama's lead falls to 48 percent to 45 percent, within the survey's 3.5 percent margin of error. A The greatest number of registered voters who say they support McCain do so because they believe he is a strong leader, while Obama's top attraction for his backers is the belief he will bring about change. Among all registered voters, 50 percent believe Obama has a better plan to bring about changed compared to McCain's 39 percent, but those numbers reverse themselves when asked who has the better record for bringing about change. Three-quarters of Obama supporters are excited about the election compared to 55 percent for McCain. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll conducted Sept. 4-7 had Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.5 percent. Although it looks like McCain is closing the gap in this traditionally Democratic state, Fairleigh Dickinson's Peter Woolley said this was in part due to the spotlight of the Republican convention and while McCain "shored up his support in New Jersey...he did not cut into his opponent's support." Woolley said the choice of Sarah Palin did a good job of bolstering McCain's base, "but there is no evidence that she has attracted disaffected Clinton supporters or independents." Democrats have won the last four presidential elections here, and Republicans the six before that. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates the race in New Jersey "Democrat Favored."

Today we update New Jersey, North Carolina, Maine and Mississippi in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• New Jersey: Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads former Republican Rep. Dick Zimmer 51 percent to 40 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 8 percent undecided among likely voters sampled in a Marist Poll conducted Sept. 5-8. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. A Quinnipiac University conducted Aug. 4-10 had Lautenberg ahead by a closer 48 percent to 41 percent margin with 11 percent undecided in a survey of likely voters by. The margin of error is 2.6 percent. Although the lead doesn't look insurmountable, Quinnipiac's Clay Richards said, "It's summer and voters aren't paying a lot of attention to this race. When they do, the incumbent's lead may get bigger - if voters don't get too concerned about the Senator's age." Those polled believed that Lautenberg was too old to serve another 6 years by a 55 percent to 39 percent margin, and that even included 50 percent of Democrats. But that doesn't appear to be helping Zimmer whose own problem is that 62 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 4 had Lautenberg ahead 51 percent to 33 percent. That was up from his 13 point lead last month. Lautenberg leads 45 percent to 28 percent among unaffiliated voters and by 60 percent to 25 percent among women, while Zimmer leads 43 percent to 40 percent among men. Lautenberg's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 48 percent to 45 percent and Zimmer's are 37 percent to 41 percent. A Strategic Vision poll conducted July 11-13 had Lautenberg ahead 48 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Democrat Favored."

John McCain is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama at 46 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader, 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr and 4 percent undecided in an Ipsos/McClatchy Poll conducted Sept. 5-9. The margin of error is 3.3 percent for registered voters.

Voters think Joseph Biden is qualified to be Vice President by a 56 percent to 31 percent margin and they say the same about Sarah Palin by 47 percent to 43 percent.

Asked to rate which candidate is stronger on various issues, the results were these:

• Foreign policy: McCain 55, Obama 36
• Healthcare: Obama 51, McCain 35
• Jobs and the economy: Obama 50, McCain 40
• Leadership: McCain 47, Obama 45
• National security: McCain 56, Obama 35
• Change: Obama 56, McCain 35

While polls about voters' generic feelings about Congress are pretty useless in predicting how the tide will turn in actual elections, Republicans can take some cheer in the fact that a new USA Today/Gallup poll shows that public sentiment about Republicans has taken a turn for the better. In a survey conducted Sept. 5-7, voters who say they'd back a Democrat over a Republican in their district now favor the Democrats by only 48 percent to 45 percent, which is statistically insignificant given the 3 point margin of error. That's down from a Democratic lead of 11 points in previous polls.

John McCain tried very hard at the Republican convention to project himself as the real agent of change in the presidential race, whether by promoting his credentials as a maverick to choosing outsider Sarah Palin as his running mate. And he seems to have had some success.

A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 5-7 says that while 61 percent of voters believe Barack Obama would be effective at changing the way government works, 54 percent believe the same of McCain. Obama and McCain run almost evenly in terms of addressing problems in the economy at 66 percent to 63 percent respectively.

While the view of the candidates as agents of change splits predictably along party lines, McCain is also in the game with Obama among independents, where Obama leads on the "change" question by 59 percent to 52 percent. Independents split evenly in judging the two candidates' abilities to handle the nation's economic problems.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Georgia, Mississippi Alabama, Idaho and Wyoming. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent choosing "other" and 4 percent undecided in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 10. The margin of error is 4.3 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 7-9 gave Obama a statistically insignificant edge over McCain of 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent. The margin of error was 3 points. McCain increased his lead among white voters from 2 to 6 points since PPP's last poll, but Obama has been able to offset that with his 58 percent to 34 percent lead among Hispanics who make up 14 percent of the sample. A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7 had Obama ahead McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 2 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 54 percent to 45 percent and McCain's were 61 percent to 39 percent. Voters trusted McCain more than Obama 49 percent to 44 percent. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. had McCain ahead 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, "other" or having no opinion. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey, but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

There are two ways to view today's Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey evaluating the post-Palin "bounce" in the key states of Colorado, Michigan, Florida and North Carolina.

Republicans can be cheered that the poll found four effects: an overall bounce for McCain in the polls, an increase in Republican party identification, an increase in support for McCain among white women and an increase in support for McCain among independents.

Democrats, though, can take comfort in the fact that the overall effect of all these is, as the pollsters say, "relatively small and probably does not fundamentally change the state of the race." Among white women, for example, McCain's popularity actually decreased in North Carolina, increased in Michigan and stayed the same in Florida and Colorado.

Even though 35 percent of Americans believe a terrorist attack somewhere in the United States is likely over the next several weeks, that is the smallest percentage measured in the seven years since Sept. 11, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday.

The pollsters note that from 2002-2006, a majority of those surveyed feared an attack in the "next several weeks."

CNN's polling director, Keating Holland, notes that this drop could have a political impact: "As the threat of a terrorist attack continues to recede in the mind of the American voter, the state of the economy and other domestic issues are likely to become even more important. That would be good news for Sen. Obama, since the Democrats currently beat or tie the Republicans on every issue except terrorism."

The telephone survey was conducted Thursday through Sunday and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points

Today we update Alaska and North Carolina - both with Republican incumbents in tight races - in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has seen his August leads over Republican Ted Stevens drop in two polls. Begich now leads him by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing other and 3 percent undecided in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 9. The margin of error is 4.5 points. Stevens' favorable to unfavorable numbers are 52 percent to 45 percent compared to 61 percent to 34 percent for Begich. An Ivan Moore Research poll conducted for the Anchorage Press Aug. 30 - Sept. 1 had Begich ahead 48.9 percent to 45.6 percent margin with 3.1 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, North Dakota, Alaska and adds West Virginia. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Michigan: This state is definitely in play. A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 7-9 has Obama ahead just beyond the margin of error by 49 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent choosing neither and 2 percent expressing no opinion. The margin of error is 3 points. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7 had Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.9 percent. Forty-five percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for McCain because of his choice of Sarah Palin compared to 30 percent who said that of Obama for choosing Joseph Biden. PPP's Dean Debnam said "there's no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race" and that the question is whether McCain is just enjoying a convention bounce or is truly making the state competitive. A Detroit News/WXYZ conducted Aug. 18-21 had Obama by 43 percent to 41 percent in a poll. The margin of error was 4 points. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers were 49 percent to 36 percent, almost unchanged from what they were last month in this poll, while McCain's favorability rating dropped 6 points to 52 percent. Voters said 42 percent to 33 percent that McCain was the more trustworthy, by 63 percent to 19 percent that he had the right experience, by 45 percent to 33 percent that he would be the stronger leader and 48 percent to 30 percent that he would do a better job protecting American interests. But Obama, as he usually does, fared better on the question of who cared most about "someone like me," on which he bested McCain 42 percent to 31 percent. Voters also said 52 percent to 25 percent that he would do more to bring about needed change and, by 62 percent to 20 percent, that he did a better job of inspiring people. Michigan has gone Democrat in the last five elections with the only Republican to win being the first George Bush in 1988. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates this state "Leans Democratic."

Thirty-five percent of Americans say their opinion of John McCain has become more favorable since the GOP convention compared to 24 percent who said they now see him less favorably, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Sept. 5-8. That rise in positive ratings appears to be due in good part to the fact that Republican support for McCain solidified, perhaps due in part to the convention, the choice of Sarah Palin as running mate or both. Sixty-five percent of Republicans said they viewed McCain favorably compared to 53 percent before the convention.

But the poll suggests it certainly wasn't McCain's acceptance speech that did the trick. Only 19 percent thought it was excellent compared to 48 percent for Obama and 45 percent for Palin.

As for Palin, Americans say she is qualified to serve as President by a 52 percent to 39 percent margin compared to 66 percent to 22 percent for Biden. Back in 1988, voters split 41 percent to 40 percent on Dan Quayle who, shall we say, got off to a rough start and never quite recovered. Half of the public thought press coverage of Palin was fair and 46 percent said it was unfair.

John McCain has gone from 3 points behind Barack Obama before the Democratic Convention to 3 points ahead in the latest Fox News poll conducted Sept. 8-9, leading 45 percent to 42 percent with 2 percent choosing "other," 2 percent saying they don't know and 10 percent undecided. McCain's lead is the same as the margin of error at 3 points. One major factor in the turnaround is that McCain now leads Obama 46 percent to 31 percent among independents after being statistically tied with him in August. That squares with a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 5-7 that saw McCain's support among independents rise from 40 percent to 52 percent.

McCain's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 33 percent compared to Obama's 57 percent to 36 percent. That's little changed from August. Sarah Palin's is 54 percent to 27 percent and Joseph Biden's is 51 percent to 29 percent.

As other polls have indicated McCain's choice of Palin as running mate has made more difference than Obama's selection of Biden. Forty-one percent of voters say the pick of Palin makes them more likely to vote for McCain compared to 31 percent who said it makes them less likely to do so, while 26 percent say it will make no difference to their decisions. Thirty-seven percent said the choice of Biden will make no difference compared to 35 percent who said it would make them more likely to vote Democratic and 25 percent who said it would make them less likely.

John McCain has consistently out-polled Barack Obama and foreign policy matters and who voters think is the stronger leader, but now he appears to be gaining on Obama when it comes to handling the economy. Just after the Democratic convention, Obama enjoyed a 19 point lead over McCan and now the Republican nominee has narrowed that to 48 percent to 45 percent in a post-Republican convention Gallup survey conducted Sept. 5-7. The margin of error is 3 percent.

The economy is rated the top issue by 42 percent of voters and four other issues are bunched up next at 12 or 13 percent - Iraq, energy and gas prices, health care and terrorism. Here's how the candidates fare on those:

• Iraq: Mccain 52, Obama 42.
• Energy and gas prices: McCain 46, Obama 46.
• Health care: Obama 52, McCain 40.
• Terrorism: McCain 55, Obama 38.

John McCain and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent liking neither and 8 percent undecided in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted Sept. 6-8. The margin of error is 3.3 percent. Olbama had led by 3 points in this poll in August and by 6 in June and July. The number of McCain supporters who described themselves as excited jumped from 12 percent in August to 34 percent. That number also rose some for Obama, from 46 percent to 55 percent. Joseph Biden made less difference to the ticket in terms of whether voters were more or less likely to back the Democrats because of his selection with 58 percent saying it made no difference. But for Palin, a lesser 40 percent said it made no difference with 34 percent now more likely to vote for McCain and 25 percent less likely.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates North Carolina (where there's a big change), Florida, Virginia, Washington state, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Montana and adds Maryland. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• North Carolina: Could it be? After holding small or statistically insignificant leads over Obama in several polls, McCain has jumped to a 58 percent to 38 percent lead with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 6-8. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20-23 had showed McCain with a 45 percent to 42 percent lead over Obama with 4 percent favoring Libertarian Bob Barr and 8 percent undecided in a. That was within the margin of error of 3.3 percent. McCain led 57 percent to 30 percent among white voters (75 percent of the sample) while Obama led 84 percent to 8 percent among black voters (21 percent of the sample). Unless the number of black voters who turn out moves up a few points, Obama would probably have to do somewhat better than he is now among whites. An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Aug. 19 had McCain ahead 44.5 percent to 42.8 percent with 5.2 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr, .9 percent for Ralph Nader and 5.4 percent undecided in. The margin of error was 3.8 percent. A Civitas Institute poll conducted Aug .14-17 had McCain ahead 46 percent to 40 percent with 2 percent for Barr and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.2 percent. That was a 3 point gain for McCain since July in this poll. Helping McCain was growing strength among independents which is now 18 points. At one point, he had been about even with Obama among them. The pollster said Obama seems stuck at about 40 percent even though he "continues to invest millions of dollars in television, field operations and commit his personal time." Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections. CQ Politics' Election Forecast lists this state as "Republican Favored."

The Democratic Convention helped Barack Obama draw even with John McCain on the question of who voters saw as a strong and decisive leader, but now in the wake of the GOP convention, it's McCain's turn to reclaim the mantle, leading Obama by 52 percent to 41 percent in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 5-7.

Voters also favor McCain over Obama by between 4 and 7 points when it comes to working well in Washington with both parties to get things done, managing government effectively, putting the country's interests ahead of his own and being honest and trustworthy. Obama, as he consistently does, leads McCain on the criterion of "cares about people like you" where he has an 8 point advantage, and sharing "your values," where he has a smaller 4 point edge.

Today we add Oklahoma to our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Oklahoma: Two-term Republican Sen. James Inhofe leads Democratic State Sen. Andrew Rice 56 percent to 34 percent with 6 percent for independent and 4 percent undecided in a SurveyUSA poll conducted Sept. 5-7. CQ Politics rates this race "Republic Favored."

John McCain's post-convention bounce owes in part to the increase in support he has drawn among independents and even some Democrats, according to a Gallup analysis of its polling for Aug. 29-31 and Sept. 5-7. His backing from independents rose from 40 percent to 52 percent and among Democrats from 9 percent to 14 percent. Prior to this sampling, McCain had received no higher than 48 percent of the independent vote and Obama no higher than 46 percent. Twenty percent of "pure" independents - those with no leaning towards either party - backed McCain before the convention, a number that has grown to 39 percent.

Today we update Michigan in our state round-up of Senate race polls. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Michigan: Five-term Democrat Carl Levin leads Republican state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk 51 percent to 36 percent with 12 percent undecided in a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Sept. 6-7. The margin of error is 2.9 percent. A Detroit News/WXYZ poll conducted Aug. 18-21 had Levin ahead 59 percent to 27 percent with a 4 point margin of error is 4 percent. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Aug. 7 had Levin ahead 56 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. Levin has a 61 percent favorability rating to Hoogendyk's 41 percent, but the more significant number for the challenger is that 29 percent have no opinion. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted June 21-22 had Levin ahead 54 percent to 32 percent with 14 percent undecided. CQ Politics rates this race "Safe Democrat.".

John McCain has pulled out ahead of Barack Obama in a CBS News poll comducted Sept. 5-7, although by a statistically insignificant margin. McCain leads Obama 46 percent to 44 percent with 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 percent. In its last poll before the Democratic convention, Obama led 45 percent to 42 percent with 10 percent undecided. Click here for the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll also released today, a round-up of the daily tracking polls, a look at five critical swing states and our latest state-by-state general election match-ups.

Fox News in conjunction with Rasmussen Reports released a poll of five swing states showing that Barack Obama and John McCain were running within 3 points of each other in four of them - within the margin of error - and with McCain leading in one (Ohio) but by a margin that was still competitive. The toplines are below. For more details, see our Latest State-by-State General Election Match-Ups.

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 46.

Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48.

Ohio: McCain 51, Obama 44.

Pennsylvania: Obama 47, McCain 45.

Virginia: McCain 49, Obama 47.

Yet another major poll has John McCain vaulting back into contention after falling behind Barack Obama in the wake of the Democratic convention. McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent expressing no opinion among likely voters in a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Sept. 5-7. The margin of error is 3 points. In the sample of registered voters, Obama led 47 percent to 46 percent with 4 percent expressing no opinion. Obama had led among likely voters in a pre-Democratic convention Post/ABC poll by 4 points and among registered voters by 6 points.

Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 58 percent to 36 percent while McCain's are 59 percent to 36 percent. Sarah Palin's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio beats Joseph Biden's. She registers 58 percent to 28 percent to Biden's 51 percent to 29 percent.

Obama is favored by voters on the issue of the economy, named as their top concern, by 5 points. On Iraq, a distant second, McCain leads by 10 points. As he has all along, McCain has double-digit leads among voters when it comes to handling international affairs an an unexpected major crisis. Obama has his biggest lead on education. But Obama's leads in some of those categories have fallen since the last poll. He had led by 11 points on the economy in August and had been tied with McCain on Iraq. And the gap between him and McCain on international affairs and handling a crisis has widened in McCain's favor.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Michigan - all of which are competitive and show some slippage for Obama. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent choosing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and 2 percent undecided in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Sept. 7. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are 54 percent to 45 percent and McCain's are 61 percent to 39 percent.Voters trust McCain more than Obama 49 percent to 44 percent. A Time/CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 24-26. had McCain ahead 47 percent to 46 percent with 7 percent choosing neither, "other" or having no opinion. The margin of error was 4 percent. A Suffolk University poll conducted Aug. 21-24 had Obama ahead 44 percent to 39 percent with Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr drawing 2 percent each and 12 percent undecided. The margin of error was 4.6 percent. Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election." Other recent polls were tighter. McCain was in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 47 percent to 46 percent with 5 percent undecided in a Quinnipiac University survey conducted Aug. 13-15 has Obama ahead of McCain 46 percent to 43 percent within the survey's 5 point margin of error. The state has gone Republican the last three elections (by less than 5 points in 2004), but the Obama camp thinks they can make it competitive. CQ Politics' Election Forecast puts Colorado in the "No Clear Favorite" column.

Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48 percent each with 3 percent undecided in a new CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Sept. 4-6.

A USA Today/Gallup poll we post earlier had McCain up 50 percent to 46 percent among registered voters and 54 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.

As far as the daily tracking polls:

• Diageo/Hotline: McCain and Obama tied at 44 percent each with 10 percent undecided in a survey conducted Sept 5.-7. That's a turnaround from Friday when Obama led 46 percent to 40 percent.
• Gallup: McCain leads 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent expressing no opinion, in a survey conducted Sept. 5-7. The margin of error is 2 points.
• Rasmussen Reports: McCain leads Obama by a statisitically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent and has the same 1 point margin when "leaners" are included. Seventy-seven percent of Obama supporters say they are voting for him with enthusiasm compared to 65 percent for McCain, but McCain's figure is up from 54 percent before the GOP convention.

The John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket showed what a USA Today/Gallup poll called a "rebound" bounce in the wake of the GOP convention, with a 50 percent to 46 percent lead among registered voters over Barack Obama-Joseph Biden in a survey conducted Sept. 5-7. Five percent expressed no opinion. The margin of error is 3 points. However, Gallup says that lead is a larger 54 percent to 44 percent when the survey is limited to likely voters.

Perhaps more important than the bounce, as post-convention bounces often prove temporary, was the fact that the Republican ticket, infused by excitement among supporters over the selection of Palin, is now generating more far enthusiasm than it had been. In August, Republicans who said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting hovered in the 40 percent range, compared to about 60 percent for Democrats, but that number has now shot up to 60 percent. Democrats more enthusiastic about voting now number 67 percent. (See the Washington Post piece today, "For the Republican Base, Palin Pick is Energizing"). According to the Los Angeles Times, she has even energized McCain himself, ("McCain Finds His Muse in Palin").

Turning to Palin, her convention speech was a far bigger hit than McCain's. Sixty percent of registered voters call it excellent or good compared to 47 percent for McCain.

Two of the daily tracking polls show that John McCain got a bounce from the GOP convention and the presidential contest is again a tight race. Gallup's survey, which was conducted Sept. 4-6 and included two full days after the close of the convention, has McCain ahead 48 percent to 45 percent with 4 percent not sure. That's a slim point larger than the 2 percent margin of error. Barack Obama had led by as much as 8 points after the Democratic convention. The tracking poll released today by Rasmussen Reports, based on interviews conducted entirely after Sarah Palin's acceptance speech, shows the race at an exact tie, with John McCain and Barack Obama at 46 percent each. Last Tuesday, Obama had a 6 point lead in the Rasmussen poll. Forty-two percent of voters cite the economy as the top issue and Obama leads here by 34 points while among the 24 percent of voters who cite national security, McCain leads by 39 points. McCain leads by wide margins among voters who see fiscal and social issues as important, while Obama leads among those whose focus are domestic issues like Social Security or health care.

Now that the interviewing period for Gallup's daily tracking poll includes the final day of the Republican convention and John McCain's acceptance speech, the race is back to a statistical tie with Barack Obama leading 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent expressing no opinion. The poll was conducted Sept. 3-5 and has a margin of error of 2 percent. Obama''s lead had grown to as much as 8 points with the boost he got from his own convention, before the action moved to St. Paul and the GOP.

Fifty percent of Americans have a favorable view of Sarah Palin with 37 percent regarding her unfavorably, but perceptions of her split sharply along partisan lines, according to an ABC News poll conducted Sept. 4. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Republicans look positively on Palin by an 85 percent to 7 percent margin compared to Democrats who regard her unfavorably by 63 percent to 24 percent. Independents see her favorably by 53 percent to 34 percent.

For comparison, Joseph Biden's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 54 percent to 30 percent with Democrats holding that view 77 percent to 9 percent, independents seeing him favorably by 52 percent to 31 percent and Republicans seeing him unfavorably by 60 percent to 27 percent. But Americans say by 50 percent to 42 percent that she does not have the right experience to be President while 66 percent say Biden does.

However, the majority of Americans say the selection of the vice presidential candidates will make no difference to their votes.

Today we update Alaska where there has been a big change. Also, check out our "Senate Races to Watch" and our state-by-state election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down.

• Alaska: Democrat Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, has seen his 17 point lead in early August over Republican Ted Stevens drop to a 48.9 percent to 45.6 percent margin with 3.1 percent undecided in the latest Ivan Moore Research poll conducted for the Anchorage Press Aug. 30 - Sept. 12. CQ Politics rates this race "Leans Democrat."

Now it's John McCain's turn. After Barack Obama got his post-convention bounce, opening up leads of 7 points or more, the Republican convention has helped McCain close the gap again. A CBS News poll conducted Sept. 1-3, before McCain's acceptance speech, has him tied with Obama at 42 percent with 12 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. CBS's poll after the Democratic convention put Obama up by 8 points.

The opening days of the Republican fest made some dent in the "enthusiasm" gap with the number of McCain supporters saying they were enthusiastic rising from 25 percent to 35 percent. Fifty-five percent of Obama supporters described themselves as enthusiastic but that was down from 67 percent in the last poll.

Some other notes:

• Independents are divided.
• Sixty-nine percent of former supporters of Hillary Clinton say they are backing Obama, up from 58 percent.
• Sixty-six percent of white evangelicals are backing McCain, up from 57 percent.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates Alaska and Indiana. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Alaska: The choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate has clearly turned things around here. An Ivan Moore poll and others had this as a close race (in July, Moore put McCain ahead by only 2.5 points), but a survey conducted Aug. 30 - Sept. 2 now has McCain ahead 53.5 percent to 34.9 percent with 11.7 percent undecided. A Hays Research Group poll conducted Aug. 6-7 had Obama leading McCain 45 percent a to 40 percent with 10 percent. The margin of error was 4.9 percent. Republicans have carried this state in the last five elections and did so by 20 points or more except for 1992 when independent Ross Perot siphoned off GOP votes. CQ Politics' Election Forecast rates Alaska "Republican Favored."

What a difference a speech viewed by 40 million people makes.

A week ago, hardly anyone had heard of Sarah Palin. Now, a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 4 says she is regarded favorably by 58 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 37 percent, with only 3 percent saying they are not familiar with her. Voters said McCain made the right choice in picking her by 51 percent to 32 percent. They said by 46 percent to 40 percent that she was not ready to be President, but that contrasts with Rasmussen's poll when she was first picked in which 44 percent said she was not ready, 29 percent said she was and 26 percent just didn't know. Asked who had the better experience to be president, voters chose Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent, compared to Rasmussen's Sept. 3 poll that had that figure at 49 percent to 39 percent. Fifty-eight percent said the choice of Palin helps McCain's presidential chances, 10 percent said it hurt and 25 percent believe it will have no impact.

There's some more polling information out today on Sarah Palin but unfortunately all of it was conducted before last night's speech, so we suspect these numbers will change.

Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 3:

• Fifty-seven percent of likely voters have been following the Palin story very closely and another 28 percent somewhat closely.
• Fifty-one percent believe the press is out to get Palin, while 35 percent say its coverage of her is unbiased.
• Voters believe Obama has the better experience to be President than Palin by 49 percent to 39 percent.
• A quarter of voters say the choice of Palin will make them more likely to vote for John McCain, a fifth say less likely, and just over half say it will have no impact on their decisions.

CBS News poll conducted Sept. 1-2:

• Sixty percent of registered voters are undecided about Palin or don't know enough about her to have an opinion. Of those who do, 26 percent have a favorable view of her and 13 percent an unfavorable one.
• More than one in four voters interviewed after Palin's selection say that the Vice Presidential choice will matter to them this year. However, 68 percent say the selection won't make a difference in their vote.

The number of voters who have yet to make up their minds declined sharply in the past week, probably because the Democratic convention and John McCain's choice of a running mate addressed some of the concerns that voters had about each of them, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 30-31. What Gallup calls the "up for grabs" vote fell from 30 percent to 21 percent.

If John McCain and his advisers hoped that the choice of Sarah Palin as the GOP's vice presidential candidate might help among women and peel off some former Hillary Clinton supporters, the way she handles the issue of abortion - of which she is a staunch opponent is not likely to help her, according to a Gallup analysis of data collected last May.

Gallup says that relatively few Democratic or independent women count abortion as the most important issue they consider in deciding their vote. Overall, 50 percent of women favor abortion rights compared to 43 percent who are anti-abortion. Among independents, that margin is 51 percent to 40 percent and among Democratic women it is 57 percent to 37 percent. Republican women are anti-abortion by a 63 percent to 32 percent margin.

Looking at all Americans regardless of gender, only 13 percent say a candidate must share their views on abortion, 49 percent say a candidate's stand on the issue is one of many important factors they consider, and 37 percent say abortion is not a major issue for them. Only 8 percent of independent women say a candidate must hold the same view as they do on abortion, 56 percent say it's only one of many factors and 32 percent say it is not an important issue for them. Fourteen percent of Democratic women say a candidate's abortion stance is a litmus test for them, 46 percent call it just one of many factors, and 39 percent say it is not an important factor in their decisions.

Our latest round-up of match-ups between Barack Obama and John McCain updates the swing states of Ohio, Iowa and Minnesota. Also, check out CQ Politics' election forecasts for detailed stories on races in each state from the tops of the tickets down. Also go to our Presidential Election Maps to see our calls and use our Scenario Builder to make your own.

• Ohio: Every new poll confirms that this is a real toss-up. Obama and McCain are statistically tied at 47 percent to 45 percent in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. An Akron Buckeye Poll conducted July 17-Aug. 17 had both men exactly tied at 40 percent with 20 percent. Obama's "strong" support was 22 percent compared to McCain's 14 percent. McCain did better as far as support from fellow Republicans with 85 percent compared to Obama's 72 percent support among Democrats. Obama was backed by just 45 percent of those who had voted for Hillary Clinton in the state's primary. McCain had the backing of 70 percent of those who had voted for his primary rivals. In a finding similar to some national polls, Obama's own level of support was lower than the 64 percent of voters who say, generically, they want to see a Democrat in the White House. And again like national polls, this one showed an enthusiasm gap with Obama backers rating their enthusiasm for him 7.2 on a 10 point scale while McCain scored 5.7 among his supporters. McCain outpolls Obama 73 percent to 21 percent when rated on experience, and by large margins when it comes to handling the Iraq war and terrorism. There are no areas, including domestic, where Obama has more than modest leads over McCain. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Aug. 17-24 had Obama statistically tied with McCain at 44 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent preferring someone else and 11 percent undecided in a. The margin of error was 2.8 percent. Generically, Ohio voters wanted a Democrat in the White House by 44 percent to 35 percent. McCain's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 50 percent to 34 percent compared to Obama's 49 percent to 32 percent. The gender gap was big here with Obama ahead among women by 14 points and McCain leading among men by 13. McCain led among white voters by 9 percent while Obama had a huge 89 percent to 3 percent among black voters. Obama had modest or statistically insignificant leads over McCain on handling the economy and energy crisis, while McCain posts double-digit leads on handling issues like terrorism, Russia and a Mideast crisis. A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Aug. 12-21 had McCain leading 42 percent to 41 percent with 1 percent each for Libertarian Bob Barr and Ralph Nader, and 15 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.2 percent. Republicans have won Ohio in three of the last five elections, but the margin of victory in 2000 and 2004 was 2.5 percent or less. CQ Politics' Election Forecast for Ohio is "No Clear Favorite."

Barack Obama has opened up leads in two battleground states - Iowa and Minnesota - but is in a dead-heat with John McCain in Ohio, which was a key to the last election, according to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2.

In Iowa, Obama leads McCain among registered voters by 55 percent to 40 percent. His Minnesota lead is 53 percent to 41 percent. But in Ohio, the two candidates are statistically tied at 47 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

"In Iowa and Minnesota, white voters are backing Obama," said CNN senior political analyst Schneider. "In Ohio, white voters are supporting McCain. What about those blue-collar white voters that were so important for Clinton in Ohio? They're pretty solidly for McCain."

A SurveyUSA poll of voters in the New York City area says New Yorkers consider Sarah Palin a liability rather than an asset to John McCain by a 42 percent to 35 percent margin with 22 percent expressing no opinion. They also say by a 46 percent to 36 percent margin with 17 percent unsure that the choice reflected badly on McCain. Seventy-one percent said the pregnancy of Palin's daughter Bristol should remain a private matter. As far as news coverage of Palin, 31 percent said there had been too much, 27 percent said too little, and 35 percent said it had been just about right.

For comparison, 49 percent said Joe Biden was an asset to Barack Obama compared to 19 percent who called him a liability and 32 percent who said they didn't know enough to judge. Fifty-three percent said the selection reflected well on Obama against 20 percent who said it reflected poorly on him.

Eighty-four percent of Americans believe we will have the first woman president in the next 10 years and 48 percent believe it is very or somewhat likely that the woman will be Hillary Clinton, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Sept. 2. And, while Sarah Palin is not even vice president yet, Rasmussen asked the same question about her and 54 percent of those surveyed said that the chancesof her becoming President were not very likely or not likely at all compared to 38 percent who believe she will get to sit in the Oval Office. A Clinton-Palin match-up in the race for President? Clinton wins 52 percent to 41 percent.

Although John McCain still has a double-digit lead among white male voters, Barack Obama has closed the gap by 8 points and among whites who are independents, he has narrowed the deficit to 5 points, according to Gallup's analysis of August's tracking poll data and a comparison of it to polling done Aug. 30-Sept. 1 after the Democratic convention.

For Aug. 1-28, McCain led among non-Hispanic white males by 56 percent to 35 percent, a lead that fell to 53 percent to 40 percent after the convention. McCain had led among white voters who describe themselves as independent by 51 percent to 35 percent, but now, he leads Obama only by 47 percent to 42 percent.

Sarah Palin so far does not appear to have helped McCain much among white women. His lead among them was 4 points both in the Aug. 1-28 period and then in the Aug. 30-Sept. 1 sampling. Among white Democratic women, Obama's lead had been 74 percent to 15 percent, and is now 82 percent to 13 percent. Obama has gone out ahead of McCain among white women who are independents, moving from a statistical tie to to a 46 percent to 39 percent lead.

Here are the latest numbers on the "enthusiasm gap" based on Gallup polling Aug. 30-31: Democrats have greater enthusiasm about this election than Republicans by 61 percent to 42 percent. However, the level of Democratic enthusiasm has declined steadily from 79 percent in February until a small uptick after the convention, and that appears to reflect the fact that the number of Clinton supporters during the primaries who expressed enthusiasm dropped from 77 percent to 46 percent.

Some more post-Democratic convention polls are coming out showing that Barack Obama got a bounce out of the party's meeting. Several show Obama with a statistically significant lead and one has the race tied.

A Diageo/Hotline poll conducted Aug. 29-31 has Obama ahead of John McCain 48 percent to 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. Before the convention, Obama had a 4 point lead. One reason is that Obama now leads McCain 42 percent to 33 percent among independents after trailing him 38 percent to 36 percent before the convention. Obama's favorable-to-unfavorable rating improved from 55 percent to 38 percent before the convention to 60 percent to 31 percent. McCain, at 51 percent to 41 percent, stayed about the same

Forty-eight percent of voters say Sarah Palin is not ready to be President, according to a Rasmussen Reports pollconducted Sept. 1. Twenty-nine percent say she is ready and 23 percent are not sure. Voters split evenly on whether John McCain made the right decision in choosing her. If her selection was a play to appeal to women, Rasmussen said it didn't work based on its survey: 41 percent of women say she was not the right choice compared to 36 percent who said she was a good one. She is seen very or somewhat favorably by 52 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent, with 10 percent not being familiar enough with her to have an opinion.

A Diageo/Hotline poll conducted Aug. 29-31 said 42 percent of all voters were satisfied with the choice of Palin compared to 25 percent who were not and 32 percent who were undecided. Republicans liked the choice by 59 percent to 18 percent with 23 percent undecided, independents liked it by 41 percent to 24 percent with 34 percent undecided, and Democrats panned it 32 percent to 29 percent with 39 percent undecided. Most voters who preferred another choice wanted to see Mitt Romney get the nod.

The push at the Democratic Convention to mend the fractures in the party between supporters of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appear to have had its effect, according to Gallup surveys conducted Aug. 21-23 and Aug. 30-31. Eighty-one percent of Clintonites say they will vote for Obama compared to 70 percent before the convention and the number certain to vote for him rose from 47 percent to 65 percent. Twelve percent still say they will defect to McCain.

Thanks to the convention, Obama also made gains when tested on top issues, rising 6 points on the question of his ability to handle terrorism, 5 points on Iraq, 5 points on being a strong and decisive leader, 5 points on sharing the values of voters and 6 points on being honest and trustworthy.

As far as concerns about Obama and John McCain, two top ones have been whether Obama has the experience to be President and whether McCain will be a clone of George Bush as far as his policies. Those very or somewhat concerned about Obama's experience dropped from 57 percent to 50 percent. And while Obama sought at the Democratic convention to portray the election of McCain as a third term for the Bush administration, the numbers didn't change much - 67 percent of voters were very or somewhat concerned before the convention that McCain would be too much like Bush, and 64 percent held that view after the convention.

In contrast to a CNN poll yesterday that had the presidential race as a dead heat, two polls today showed Barack Obama getting bounces of 7 and 8 points from the Democratic convention.

A CBS News poll conducted Aug. 29-31 put Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent lead with 2 percent saying they won't vote and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. That compares to the 3 point lead Obama had before the Democratic convention. This was CBS' first poll that included the running mates of Obama and McCain, but more than 7 of 10 voters said of both tickets that the VP selections would make no difference in their choice.

A USA Today/Gallup poll released this afternoon had Obama ahead 50 percent to 43 percent compared to a 4 point lead before the convention. The margin of error is 2 points.

Gallup says the median increase for candidates after their conventions going back to 1964 has been 5 points, ranging from John Kerry's anti-bounce of minus one point to Bill Clinton's high of 16 points in 1992. Of course, the Republicans have not completed their convention and how that might affect the longevity of Obama's bounce is complicated by a variety of factors: the occurence this year of conventions that were immediately back-to-back and the Hurricane Gustav story causing the GOP conclave to be truncated.

While 79 percent of Republican delegates and 63 percent of Republican voters approve of President Bush's job performance, a plurality of delegates - 47 percent - say Bush has left the party in weaker shape and only 14 percent believe that it would help John McCain if Bush campaigned for him, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. The delegate survey was conducted July 23-Aug.26. The poll figures for overall voters were taken from a survey conducted Aug. 15-20.

An interesting finding in the poll is the difference on some questions between the views of Republican delegates and Republican voters at-large.

Thirty-eight percent of delegates would like to see McCain be more conservative than Bush, 14 percent said he should be less conservative, 13 percent said he should follow the same policies and 35 percent weren't sure. But asked whether they believed McCain would in fact turn out more conservative, a lesser 24 percent thought he would.

Barack Obama didn't get a "bounce" out of the Democratic convention, finding himself statistically tied with John McCain at 49 percent to 48 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Aug. 29-31. The margin of error is 3 percent. The survey covered the period including the day after Obama's acceptance speech and McCain's choice of Sarah Palin. Just before the convention, CNN's poll had the two exactly tied.

CNN polling director Keating Holland said: "The convention and particularly Obama's speech seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces assuming that either one created a bounce at all."

Sixty-four percent of those who watched the Democratic convention rated Obama's speech as good or excellent.

Perhaps more interesting than another poll showing both men in a tight race were the findings on Palin:

• Voters said by 50 percent to 45 percent that she is not qualified to be President , putting her just above Dan Quayle when it came to running mates in whom the public did not have confidence.
• Four in ten voters are not familiar with her, 38 percent view her favorably and 21 percent unfavorably.
• Fifty-two percent say she was a good or excellent choice against 46 percent who said it was fair or poor.
• Six in 10 voters say her selection will make no difference on the way they vote while one in 5 say they are now more likely to vote for the GOP ticket and the same number say they are more likely to vote against.
• Three-quarters of voters believe that McCain chose a woman because he thought it would help him win in November.