Poll Tracker

There's a lot of talk this election season about how changing demographics are turning states into purple from their traditional red and blue. Public Policy Polling took a closer look at this phenomenon in North Carolina by comparing the preferences of native North Carolinians (54 percent) to non-natives (46 percent).

PPP's most recent overall survey, conducted Aug. 20-23, had McCain with a statistically-insignificant 45 percent to 42 percent margin. Its look at the native/non-native divide, conducted during the same period, had McCain leading 48 percent to 40 percent among natives, but behind Obama 46 percent to 41 percent among non-natives. Obama has more support among non-native Democrats (77 percent) than he does among native ones (65 percent).

When it comes to independents, who make up 10 percent of voters, newcomers favor Obama 50 percent to 32 percent while natives favor McCain 47 percent to 22 percent.

The Senate race follows the same pattern. Overall, PPP has Democrat Kay Hagan leading incumbent Elizabeth Dole 42 percent to 39 percent (the margin of error is 3.3 percent), but Dole leads Hagan by that same margin among natives, while Hagan leads among non-natives cent to 35 percent.